Value of: Schenn Trade VS Duchene Trade

[Halak Ness Monster]

It'll definitely be interesting to see how much of Schenn's season is the adrenaline of finally getting the chance to center some stars, and not be trapped in Giroux's shadow...and how much is Schenn finally getting to make full use of the talent that had made him such a hyped prospect.

All I can say is I haven't found anything to truly dislike about Brayden Schenn through 16 games. The exception, I guess, being his ability on faceoffs.

And the crazy thing is that he is on pace for 5 power play goals this year. His 5 on 5 game has been outstanding.

I think you're seeing a former #1 overall prospect flourish now that he is being trusted to play 19-20 minutes a night with stud wingers. I don't think it's flukish. Schenn is just a really talented player.

I'm hoping that Schenn's career trajectory is like Patrick Marleau's. Where all of the sudden he went from a career high of 57 points through his first 7 seasons to posting 6 seasons of 70+ points starting at age 26. Of course, the offense in the league did increase a ton following the lost season in 2004-05 and that likely played a huge part(they also added Joe Thornton that year)

But I mean take a look at the two. Schenn averaged 57 ponts in Philly the last two years and is now on pace for 92 at age 26.
Marleau posted back to back years of 57 points before shooting up to 83 at age 26.

 

[Rebels57]

All I can say is I haven't found anything to truly dislike about Brayden Schenn through 16 games. The exception, I guess, being his ability on faceoffs.

And the crazy thing is that he is on pace for 5 power play goals this year. His 5 on 5 game has been outstanding.

I think you're seeing a former #1 overall prospect flourish now that he is being trusted to play 19-20 minutes a night with stud wingers. I don't think it's flukish. Schenn is just a really talented player.

I'm hoping that Schenn's career trajectory is like Patrick Marleau's. Where all of the sudden he went from a career high of 57 points through his first 7 seasons to posting 6 seasons of 70+ points starting at age 26. Of course, the offense in the league did increase a ton following the lost season in 2004-05 and that likely played a huge part.

But I mean take a look at the two. Schenn averaged 57 ponts in Philly the last two years and is now on pace for 92 at age 26.
Marleau posted back to back years of 57 points before shooting up to 83 at age 26.

This wouldn't be the first player the Flyers have traded that flourished elsewhere, so I wouldn't be surprised

He would be joining the ranks of Justin Williams, Patrick Sharp, and JVR.

Personally I don't think he has the IQ to jump in production like you're describing. He is also streaky. We have seen him play at PPG for 20 games then have 3 points over the next 15-20 several times before.

 

[rumrokh]

Personally I don't think he has the IQ to jump in production like you're describing. He is also streaky. We have seen him play at PPG for 20 games then have 3 points over the next 15-20 several times before.

The big difference is that what we're seeing is not about his production, it's performance. He could be on pace for exactly his expected totals from the last couple of seasons and fans would be just as pleased because they're seeing a player who is engaged all over the ice, forcing turnovers, playing good defense in his own zone, making smart reads in transition, getting good shots off, and making several very nice set-ups every game. We haven't been tricked into thinking he can play center because he's gotten some extra assists - the actual hockey is there.

Maybe he's super motivated because of a new team and it will fade. Maybe if the bounces go wrong and he loses confidence, he'll lose confidence in his entire game. But what we've seen to this point is not about a point streak.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

Schenn's been a perfect fit. He's now in a more structured system with better puck movers on defense. And he's centering two world class hockey players which also helps. A guy like Jaden Schwartz is going to make any player next to him better. The hockey IQ rumors from Philly has been blown way out of proportion.

 

[phlocky]

There really isn't THAT much of a difference in value between the two trades. The two firsts vs a first and Bowers is about equal. Lethera, while a bit over paid, is still a decent bottom 6 forward while Hammond is NOT an NHL level goalie, he was purely a cap dump. The Avs got a 2nd, a 3rd and an extra mid/low end prospect to take on a pure cap dump. THAT is how you need to look at this, not at what the Sens gave up but what the Avs GOT!!;

Now, let's look at what the Sens gave up and why. The Sens got only a marginal upgrade at center and really paid through the nose for it but why? This trade was essentially a two part trade and both parts centered on the Sens. They wanted an upgrade at center and paid a heavy price for it. However, to get Duchene they first had to "dump" Turris. The Sens didn't get near as much from the Preds as they would have had they simply shopped him since the off season and taken the best deal possible. Then, they paid more than they probably should have for Duchene. Most experts agree that this was the case with the Sens.

Now, why did the Sens make this seemingly head scratching move? Well, they basically have a 2 year window to win a cup before they need to resign important guys and they are going to lose others. Turris is only signed through this year and they'd either have to sign him now and lose someone they REALLY don't want to lose in 2 years or they let him walk after this year and limit their cup window to just this year. Duchene is signed through next season giving the Sens two full years to make a run at the cup.

To me, it makes perfect sense what and why the Sens made this deal and we're willing to over pay to get it done. They also paid a little more to NOT have to give up any of their top 3 prospects.

To sum it up, the value isn't THAT far apart and the Sens, who were in a more desperate situation, over paid

 

[Mike Liut]

Schenn is a much better play maker than I thought.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I agree...I was thinking yesterday of comparable and why Ottawa had to give up so much for Duchene. They didn't add a top 6 forward, they mildly upgraded on one. In your comparison, St Louis added one, and one almost as good (or as good) as Duchene.

No doubt Duchene is a good player, but I think his being on Canada's National team boosted his value significantly. Colorado sure did get quite the haul for him.

Because whether it was a problem Dorion manufactured, or a genuine one, they needed to make that deal. It's that simple. Turris was presumably not gonna be a Senator in 18-19, but they also weren't trading him without a replacement.

Secondly, people are judging the Schenn trade based off of his hot start. The Flyers traded Schenn based on his previous body of work. Production wise, Duchene's ceiling is higher since he's actually shown he can play at a near point per game pace in the past (2012-2014), Duchene can handle the duties of being a C where as Schenn cannot. Further, it's not just about points. Duchene is considered the better overall and more complete player.

The value further gets distorted because Philadelphia sold very very very low on Schenn considering Lehtera was a considerable cap dump and the Blues pick will almost certainly not be high this season while the bottom end of the 1st round last year was considered to be the equivalent to a 2nd round pick in better seasons. Colorado exploited Dorion's situation which was a very unique one in order to sell very very high on Duchene.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

There really isn't THAT much of a difference in value between the two trades.

There's a context where the Senators didn't trade much more for Duchene than STL did for Schenn.

Pierre Dorion claims that
-He was not in a position to trade Turris for futures because Sens are in a win now mode (not his exact words, but same implication)
-A 6 year extension wasn't on the table (So, we'd lose Turris for nothing next year without this trade)

Now, I am not saying I 100 percent believe that, but if that is true, Turris was a sunk cost and us trading Turris+Bowers+2018 1st+2019 3rd for 2 years of Duchene would have been no different than us trading the same package (-Turris) for 1 year of Duchene next off season after Turris walks for nothing.

It's worth adding into the discussion, because if it is true that a more team friendly contract than 7-8 years @ 6.5M wouldn't been plausible in Ottawa, and that the Senators weren't going to trade their 1C for futures in a year they intend to try to win the Stanley Cup, then what was given up in a practical sense for Duchene from Ottawa's side (not what was gained from COLs side) is similar to what STL gave up for Schenn.

 

[SC2GM]

Hammond is NOT an NHL level goalie, he was purely a cap dump.

How is Hammond not a NHL level goalie? The guy had the best stretch of goaltending I've ever seen in the NHL. His career save % is 923... Jake Allen couldn't stop a beach ball for half a season, yet he's a good number 1 (less than a year later). Hammond has started 4 games this year. If we're going to use this standard, then no one is a NHL level goalie.

As for Schenn and Duchene, Statsny was basically a ppg player on some of the Avalanche teams; Schenn is way better than Statsny. Trading Schenn for 2 low firsts and taking on someone who doesn't belong in the NHL, at 4.7 million a season? Beyond horrible. If the league had any idea Schenn was this good, then the trade shouldn't have even been approved. The guy is 26, on a very reasonable contract (300k more than Lehtera...). No way to spin this into a positive. Bad miscalculation on Schenn and just how bad Lehtera is. Lehtera is just too slow to play in the league.

 

[falconski]

There really isn't THAT much of a difference in value between the two trades. The two firsts vs a first and Bowers is about equal. Lethera, while a bit over paid, is still a decent bottom 6 forward while Hammond is NOT an NHL level goalie, he was purely a cap dump. The Avs got a 2nd, a 3rd and an extra mid/low end prospect to take on a pure cap dump. THAT is how you need to look at this, not at what the Sens gave up but what the Avs GOT!!;

Now, let's look at what the Sens gave up and why. The Sens got only a marginal upgrade at center and really paid through the nose for it but why? This trade was essentially a two part trade and both parts centered on the Sens. They wanted an upgrade at center and paid a heavy price for it. However, to get Duchene they first had to "dump" Turris. The Sens didn't get near as much from the Preds as they would have had they simply shopped him since the off season and taken the best deal possible. Then, they paid more than they probably should have for Duchene. Most experts agree that this was the case with the Sens.

Now, why did the Sens make this seemingly head scratching move? Well, they basically have a 2 year window to win a cup before they need to resign important guys and they are going to lose others. Turris is only signed through this year and they'd either have to sign him now and lose someone they REALLY don't want to lose in 2 years or they let him walk after this year and limit their cup window to just this year. Duchene is signed through next season giving the Sens two full years to make a run at the cup.

To me, it makes perfect sense what and why the Sens made this deal and we're willing to over pay to get it done. They also paid a little more to NOT have to give up any of their top 3 prospects.

To sum it up, the value isn't THAT far apart and the Sens, who were in a more desperate situation, over paid

I have to think you’re calling kamenev the mid/low end prospect (which I can disagree with but fair enough) at which point...you’re ignoring the main piece of the trade going to the avs (Girard)

 

[steveat]

How about wait until the end of the season to sus things out. Everyone is guessing...

Ottawa HAD to trade Turris...the didn't lose any important prospects...I think they did ok. Maybe a little overpayment, but we aren't talking about breaking the bank..

 

[2 Minute Minor]

I’m another Blues fan who finds Schenn much better than expected. In particular, I see him make good reads regularly, which I didn’t expect with so much warning about a lack of hockey IQ. Maybe it’s a relative thing because I just got done watching Yakupov skate around in a tornado of cluelessness last season, but Schenn looks just as savvy as Steen or Tarasenko out there.

Was he not completely engaged in Philly? Is this a ‘new guy’ adrenaline rush that will wear off? Maybe the points will slow down, but if he plays like this all year I’ll be ecstatic. It’s weird to see the Blues’ pro scouts not look bad for once.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

How is Hammond not a NHL level goalie?

Consistency is very important for an NHL goalie to have. Hammond has shown he cannot be relied on. Bad stretches of play combined with significant time off due to injuries make it hard to call him an NHL goalie.

I like his story, and I hope he can change that narrative and succeed else where. But for now, what we have to go on is his last 2 seasons of play, and they've established what I've said above to be true. His numbers in the AHL so far have been very good this season. Hopefully someone in a pinch will give him a shot in the NHL, and he can make the best of it.