FlyersFanSinceBirth
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- Jul 1, 2010
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Value of: Schenn Trade VS Duchene Trade
- Thread starter FlyersFanSinceBirth
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hatcher
Registered User
Loser GM that got jumpy. Glad Schenn went to a team that takes it serious from start to finish win or lose during a game. 24yrs old traded for a cap dump LOL 2 low end firsts. Garbage and the core is still playing by themselves and Filp is doing good so far.
PunkRockLocke
Registered User
I agree...I was thinking yesterday of comparable and why Ottawa had to give up so much for Duchene. They didn't add a top 6 forward, they mildly upgraded on one. In your comparison, St Louis added one, and one almost as good (or as good) as Duchene.
No doubt Duchene is a good player, but I think his being on Canada's National team boosted his value significantly. Colorado sure did get quite the haul for him.
No doubt Duchene is a good player, but I think his being on Canada's National team boosted his value significantly. Colorado sure did get quite the haul for him.
As you pointed out, Duchene is a center. That's key.
Duchene also has a longer track record with a higher peak than Schenn. You can talk yourself into the idea of a change of scenery unlocking 70+ point Duchene. Schenn is more "he is what he is."
Duchene also has a longer track record with a higher peak than Schenn. You can talk yourself into the idea of a change of scenery unlocking 70+ point Duchene. Schenn is more "he is what he is."
BleedBlue14
UrGeNcY
maybe ottawa had to pay to get rid of hammonds contract albeit only 1 yr of it. also, duchene was on the market for a long time while schenn was a surprise trade so teams had time to make good offers.
I like how people think that all of a sudden Duchene ceiling has gone way up, but a guy like Schenn...who is the same age....”is what he is”. Reality is both players are what they are. They are unlikely to go up or down significantly.
Which is why the overpayment for Duchene is so crazy.
Tripod
I hate this team
Captain Creampuff
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Except that Schenn is currently the Blues #1C and excelling in that position so far.
mw2noobbuster
Registered User
Schenn is a good player but not close to Duchene. Some things to consider is that as a player is more skilled his value raises exponentially. Also if you are only comparing point production you don't have the proper tools to find the answer you are looking for.
Statistically you would need to compare QoC, QoT, production at certain ages, % of point distribution and WOWY value for the player. Andrew Berkshire does good work here.
The other approach would be a ProScout analysis. Which would be the best option but harder to get, especially on here.
Short answer is players of Duchene's caliber are significantly harder to obtain than that of Schenns. Although I don't think the two trades are as far off as you are suggesting.
Statistically you would need to compare QoC, QoT, production at certain ages, % of point distribution and WOWY value for the player. Andrew Berkshire does good work here.
The other approach would be a ProScout analysis. Which would be the best option but harder to get, especially on here.
Short answer is players of Duchene's caliber are significantly harder to obtain than that of Schenns. Although I don't think the two trades are as far off as you are suggesting.
The perception of Duchene among GM’s is much higher than it is on hfboards.
CraigsList
In Conroy We Trust
Ottawa overpaid to:
1) Not trade one of White, Brown, or Chabot
2) Have high hopes of re-signing Duchene (which I think he will do).
There are lots of UFA's in 2 years for Ottawa, that's the only issue that I see. Karlsson, Duchene, and Brassard's contracts end at the same time. So that'll be interesting.
1) Not trade one of White, Brown, or Chabot
2) Have high hopes of re-signing Duchene (which I think he will do).
There are lots of UFA's in 2 years for Ottawa, that's the only issue that I see. Karlsson, Duchene, and Brassard's contracts end at the same time. So that'll be interesting.
I don’t personally think that Duchene is going to get back to his peak scoring levels with a change of scenery. My point is that it was probably easier for front office personnel to buy into the idea that the guy at 26 who has done it before stands a better chance of getting to that level than the other guy at 26 who hasn’t.
I was talking about Schenn at the time of the trade. He was more of a part-time center in Philadelphia. Duchene was more of a full-time center in Colorado.
ole ole
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Dominance
99-66-4-9-87/97
Why aren’t people paying attention to this? He’s been fantastic.
biturbo19
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- Jul 13, 2010
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I think bigger than Duchene being a Center (as Schenn has played some in the middle anyway), is just how PP reliant Brayden Schenn has been in his point production. There's nothing wrong with a guy who is just a really good PP player. All the goals ultimately count the same on the scoreboard. But there's an obvious premium to guys who aren't quite so reliant on oodles of PP opportunity to fill out their point totals. There was some definite room to question that with Schenn, more so than Duchene.
The Schenn deal was also bafflingly cheap though imo. I really don't know what Philly were doing there. Looks like Hextall absolutely fell in love with some prospect in the draft, and figured that with Patrick in the fold, Schenn was an expendable chip to go out and get that prospect he wanted. Weird though. Especially taking on salary like Lehtera in the process.
The Schenn deal was also bafflingly cheap though imo. I really don't know what Philly were doing there. Looks like Hextall absolutely fell in love with some prospect in the draft, and figured that with Patrick in the fold, Schenn was an expendable chip to go out and get that prospect he wanted. Weird though. Especially taking on salary like Lehtera in the process.
Dbrownss
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Hmmm turns out Schenn is capable of being a good center and not be just a PP specialist.
The real winner in this whole situation is St. Louis' pro scouting department
With that said...Duchene>Schenn value wise. Ottawa paid a shit ton though. While it was a 3 way trade....they basically paid Girard+kamenev+Bowers+1st+2nd+3rd+cap dump. While Nashville was invovled...they had to get the assets to get Duchene. That's Chiarelli level bad.
Philly needs space next year to re-sign Simmonds and Provorov, for whom a bridge seems unlikely given his play. Hextall took slightly less than Schenn may have been worth, but his value was only going to go down as teams realized we wouldn't be able to keep someone next year. Maybe he took 85 cents on the dollar this summer, but he likely would've only gotten 50 next.
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Got One Cup
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- Jun 3, 2008
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Schenn has looked pretty good at center so far, if he can keep up this level of play I’ll be very happy with that trade. There was a risk trading for him when he didn’t have much success with the Flyers at center. You don’t have that risk with Duschene which is why you are paying more.
Freudian
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- Jul 3, 2003
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NHL teams know that Matt Duchene is much better than he showed last year, while HF focus way too much on it.
Duchene is a proven high end player. Has played for Team Canada in the Olympics and World Cup. He's great on faceoffs. He's always been a strong contributor is even strength, there are only 19 players in the league with more even strength points since he came into the league.
Add that it was a perfect storm for Avs. Nashville really wanted Turris, Turris was willing to sign an extension with Nashville, Senators had to trade Turris and Senators really wanted Duchene. Like Bob McKenzie said, it's almost as if Avs got paid twice in this trade.
Duchene is a proven high end player. Has played for Team Canada in the Olympics and World Cup. He's great on faceoffs. He's always been a strong contributor is even strength, there are only 19 players in the league with more even strength points since he came into the league.
Add that it was a perfect storm for Avs. Nashville really wanted Turris, Turris was willing to sign an extension with Nashville, Senators had to trade Turris and Senators really wanted Duchene. Like Bob McKenzie said, it's almost as if Avs got paid twice in this trade.
mw2noobbuster
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phlocky
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- Jan 2, 2007
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That's not it at all. With the contracts we have now, the guys we have coming off the books and the guys we need to resign, in 2 years we'd have had to either deal Simmonds or let him walk for free as we just wouldn't have had the cap space to resign him. The choice was Schenn + whatever we got for Simmonds or Simmonds + two 1st. We chose the latter.
