Value of: Schenn Trade VS Duchene Trade

[Starat327]

Duchene has just as much time remaining on his deal as EK does.Do you not see the corraletion ??If we cant resign EK what would be the point of having a guy like KT locked in for 6 more seasons,or better yet giving out a huge contract to Duchene....If EK doesnt resign iam sure Duchene will be available to the highest bidder come next TD

Im not really sure what youre getting at. Correct, they expire at the same time. But Turris wanted term Ottawa wasnt comfortable committing too. They also werent going to trade him at the deadline, because then playoff hopes go down the drain. So instead, they got a center that should be an upgrade, and get an extra year without committing to him, allowing them to 'test drive' Duchene, so to speak. See if he meshes with Karlsson, and if so, then they can talk extension. All the while, they did it wihout giving up any of their "premium" assets in Chabot, Brown, etc. The flip side of that is they gave a ton of quantity up to do it.

 

[Starat327]

To be honest with you Tarasenko isn't the reason his ES production has been so much better. It's Jaden Schwartz. I know I hear in interviews from Blues guys that jaden Schwartz is the dumbest player on the team. And I know for a fact seeing some of the things he does, that Brayden Schenn isn't exactly the sharpest tool in the toolbox. But I think they are pretty much on the same wavelength of hockey IQ and play style. It's actually really awesome to watch them together. Tank didn't really ever play with them the first 5-10 games and they were still producing at a ridiculous rate. I understand that they played together on our PP but our special teams is pretty much a joke right now.

All the better, you were able to put him in a situation that he excels at. We never gave him that opportunity - partially because he didnt earn it (he just couldnt keep up with Giroux and Voracek mentally), but partially because our team has been so top heavy for years. Shutting down Giroux was the key to beating the flyers for the last 3 years (minimum). There was no other creative force for him to play with. Im glad to see Schenn is doing well, hes a hard worker, does what hes asked, and is productive. Sometimes, things just dont work out though, and i think that was the case here in Philly.

 

[topshelf15]

Im not really sure what youre getting at. Correct, they expire at the same time. But Turris wanted term Ottawa wasnt comfortable committing too. They also werent going to trade him at the deadline, because then playoff hopes go down the drain. So instead, they got a center that should be an upgrade, and get an extra year without committing to him, allowing them to 'test drive' Duchene, so to speak. See if he meshes with Karlsson, and if so, then they can talk extension. All the while, they did it wihout giving up any of their "premium" assets in Chabot, Brown, etc. The flip side of that is they gave a ton of quantity up to do it.

Ottawa will be doing exactly what the NYI will be doing if they lose their franchise player...Which is rebuilding.Hense neither team wants to add many players with term past that date.

 

[Captain Creampuff]

Likewise for you, since you apparently have an inherent need to feel you 'won' the trade.

Haha what? I don't need to feel like we won the trade. I know we won the trade unless one of the firsts becomes a better player than Schenn. You guys are stuck with nearly 5mil in dead cap space. Lehtera will be the new Streit or Macdonald.

 

[Starat327]

Ottawa will be doing exactly what the NYI will be doing if they lose their franchise player...Which is rebuilding.Hense neither team wants to add many players with term past that date.

...and if Duchene comes in and does well, it helps convince Karlsson that Ottawa's management is serious about building a team. Letting Turris walk at the end of the year would have been a huge blow to keeping Karlsson, i imagine. Ottawa paid for an upgrade at C and an extension on their window without committing to anything, or at least thats how i see it.

However, this isnt an ottawa thread, so ill leave it at that.

 

[Riptide]

Over the last 4 years Schenn has 176 points and Duchene has 165. Duchene is the more dynamic player, is a center and has more speed. Schenn brings a more physical game, has a better contract and is better on the power play. I expected Duchene to bring a better return in a trade. But why was his return so much better than Schenn's?

Ottawa gave up a 1st and 3rd round pick, Bowers, Hammond and Turris to get Duchene.
St. Louis gave up two 1st round picks and Lehtera.

Because he's a better player then Schenn? Over the past 5 years (since both were in the NHL and putting up productive numbers), MD has 235 points and Schenn has 217. Additionally Duchene is actually a very good full time center. Schenn has rarely played full time as a center, and his most productive seasons have come as a winger - and one that's been heavily reliant on the PP for his production (50% of his goals, and 44% of his points the last 2 seasons). Duchene's PP production is only around 23% of his total production. Even in his best seasons, it never exceeded 24% of his production.

So in summary, you have the:
- Better player
- More productive player (especially at ES)
- Quicker player (speed wise)
- Is a true NHL center

And you wonder why he fetched a better return? Really?

As someone else said in the Ottawa thread. The higher end you go, the more it costs for marginal returns. To go from 200 HP to 285 HP only costs around 7k for my vehicle. To go 315 HP would cost 20k. It's the same with NHL players. I'll just quote swiftwin because he wrote it quite well.

In hockey, the higher up the scale you go, the more your returns are diminished. Upgrading from a 1a/1b guy to a legit 1C is going to cost much more than upgrading from a 2C to a 1a/1b guy.

 

[Starat327]

Haha what? I don't need to feel like we won the trade. I know we won the trade unless one of the firsts becomes a better player than Schenn. You guys are stuck with nearly 5mil in dead cap space. Lehtera will be the new Streit or Macdonald.

5 Mil in cap space we dont need until Lehtera's deal is over, thus the reason taking him on wasnt a big deal. I pretty clearly spelled that out("im almost certain that if Lehtera had an additional year, this deal wouldnt have happened" or something to that effect.) in the original post, if you had bothered to read it.

Its also not nearly as simple as "you got the better player, you won", but i wont waste my time trying to explain the benefits of moving Schenn and the flyers organizational, and cap stricture to you. By and large, for us, this is the Hartnell trade again, but with a younger and better player, and a much better return.

 

[topshelf15]

...and if Duchene comes in and does well, it helps convince Karlsson that Ottawa's management is serious about building a team. Letting Turris walk at the end of the year would have been a huge blow to keeping Karlsson, i imagine. Ottawa paid for an upgrade at C and an extension on their window without committing to anything, or at least thats how i see it.

However, this isnt an ottawa thread, so ill leave it at that.

No you are right it isnt an Ottawa thread,but it does make the picture a little clearer as to why Ottawa was willing to pay the price it did .It was worth it to them

 

[Riptide]

Brayden Schenn is a center as well or he is at least a make shift center.

Schenn in the last 5 years has taken 1700 faceoffs. Duchene has taken 4300. One is a true center, the other isn't. That's why there's a massive difference in their values.

Except that Schenn is currently the Blues #1C and excelling in that position so far.

Ah so that's why Stastny has almost twice as many FOs as Schenn does. Glad he's not my #1C.

 

[Starat327]

No you are right it isnt an Ottawa thread,but it does make the picture a little clearer as to why Ottawa was willing to pay the price it did .It was worth it to them

I never said the trade didnt make sense. Ithink it was the right thing to do. I think Ottawa overpaid, but sometimes you have to in order to achieve other things. If overpaying for Duchene convinces or helps to convince Karlsson to stay, you make that trade all day every day, and maybe even add more to it.

 

[FlyersFanSinceBirth]

Because he's a better player then Schenn? Over the past 5 years (since both were in the NHL and putting up productive numbers), MD has 235 points and Schenn has 217. Additionally Duchene is actually a very good full time center. Schenn has rarely played full time as a center, and his most productive seasons have come as a winger - and one that's been heavily reliant on the PP for his production (50% of his goals, and 44% of his points the last 2 seasons). Duchene's PP production is only around 23% of his total production. Even in his best seasons, it never exceeded 24% of his production.

So in summary, you have the:
- Better player
- More productive player (especially at ES)
- Quicker player (speed wise)
- Is a true NHL center

And you wonder why he fetched a better return? Really?

As someone else said in the Ottawa thread. The higher end you go, the more it costs for marginal returns. To go from 200 HP to 285 HP only costs around 7k for my vehicle. To go 315 HP would cost 20k. It's the same with NHL players. I'll just quote swiftwin because he wrote it quite well.

You bolded the part where I asked why Duchene's return was so much better than Schenn's and then proceeded to act like I don't understand why Duchene and Schenn didn't bring back an equal return. That's clearly not what I said. I even said that I expected Duchene to bring a better return in a trade.
As far as your summary:
-Duchene may be marginally better, depending on what you value more in a hockey player.
-Duchene has been more productive over the last 5 years, Schenn more productive over the last 4. And yes, power play points still count just as much as ES.
-Yes Duchene is faster
-Ask Blues fans if Schenn is a true NHL center

 

[topshelf15]

I never said the trade didnt make sense. Ithink it was the right thing to do. I think Ottawa overpaid, but sometimes you have to in order to achieve other things. If overpaying for Duchene convinces or helps to convince Karlsson to stay, you make that trade all day every day, and maybe even add more to it.

Fair enough ,but this trade was far more complicated from our side.Than the one that was made between you and STL .....The valuation is kinda skewed because of it

 

[Dbrownss]

Schenn in the last 5 years has taken 1700 faceoffs. Duchene has taken 4300. One is a true center, the other isn't. That's why there's a massive difference in their values.


Ah so that's why Stastny has almost twice as many FOs as Schenn does. Glad he's not my #1C.

Why does FOs taken matter in this case? He's centering Schwartz and Tarasenko, which is considered the Blues #1 line.

 

[FlyersFanSinceBirth]

Schenn in the last 5 years has taken 1700 faceoffs. Duchene has taken 4300. One is a true center, the other isn't. That's why there's a massive difference in their values.


Ah so that's why Stastny has almost twice as many FOs as Schenn does. Glad he's not my #1C.

Giroux has taken 211. Couturier has taken 182. Which one is the #1C?

 

[Starat327]

Fair enough ,but this trade was far more complicated from our side.Than the one that was made between you and STL .....The valuation is kinda skewed because of it

There were still 'other factors' for us:

1) Freeing up space to not just pay Provorov, but potentially lock him down now with term at a cheaper rate as opposed to bridging and risking a)sour relationship and b) he becomes more valuable and harder to lock down. This kid looks like hes going to be something special, and I think management would like to get that taken care of for the next 8 years now, as opposed to waiting and seeing what happens in 2 or 3 more, and paying through the nose. Similar to the Karlsson situation, albeit, less skilled player overall, and Provorov will still be an RFA, so he can't walk', but either way, were both planning around the future cornerstones of the team.

2) Flexibility to re-sign Simmonds. If Schenn was still on the team, we likely wouldnt have even had this option. It gives them some flexibility moving forward and allows them to not make cap-restricted moves.

3) We had Linblom and Konecny knocking on the door, itching to take Schenn's place. The two firsts allowed/will allow us to re-stock our only prospect weakness, potential top 9 forwards. We used the blues first pick to grab Morgan Frost, who by the accounts ive read, has looked very good in the OHL this year.

I don't think Hextall maximized value, but i do think he made the right move in planning for the future, which all of his moves to date have been about, and what i think the underlying theme was in acquiring Duchene in Ott. Ok, now im done with ottawa

 

[mw2noobbuster]

So? He wasn't being traded TO Philly, he was going to a place where his value was off the charts

St. Loius fans had Backes to rally around for years, he was an essential component to the fan/team relationship and Schenn's ability to fill the "Backes" slot is of immeasurable value

Yes, but the way a team value's X player affects what they are willing to part with.

 

[Oberyn]

No need to get into another pissing match about who won the Schenn trade. I think both teams are happy with how it's played out. The Blues got a good top six player who has filled a need at center, and the Flyers got a couple first round picks to bolster their future. We can all agree that Lehtera is garbage.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Schenn in the last 5 years has taken 1700 faceoffs. Duchene has taken 4300. One is a true center, the other isn't. That's why there's a massive difference in their values.


Ah so that's why Stastny has almost twice as many FOs as Schenn does. Glad he's not my #1C.

Both teams were trading for a center.. I think the difference is Sakic had no real reason to move him aside from his own mishandling of the situation. Hextall as many others have said had reason to sign him as SImmons/Provorov are much more important pieces to Phillys core as opposed to Schenn.

 

[Curufinwe]

Ottawa was prepared to pay a lot more for Duchene than the Blues were for Schenn.

I wish Dorion thought Schenn was as good an NHL center as Duchene, then he could have given the Flyers the 28th pick in 2017, their 2018 1st and Turris for Schenn at the draft. But obviously he doesn't think that.

 

[Curufinwe]

The Schenn deal was also bafflingly cheap though imo.

Not compared to Marcus Johansson who only cost a 2nd and a 3rd after scoring 58 points last season.

 

[Starat327]

Not compared to Marcus Johansson who only cost a 2nd and a 3rd after scoring 58 points last season.

Perfect example of what we likely would have gotten for Schenn if we had waited until we were cap-crunched, as the Caps were this off-season.

 

[simon IC]

We didn't "fleece" the Flyers. We gave up 2 1sts, one of them next year, which is projected to be a really deep draft. I wonder how many of my fellow fans will be looking on in envy during that draft. I know I certainly will be. I'm glad we unloaded Lehtera too, but I also think it was a good trade for both teams.

 

[Jtown]

18 pts on the year. looking like a one sided deal.

 

[HolyJumpin]

Schenn in the last 5 years has taken 1700 faceoffs. Duchene has taken 4300. One is a true center, the other isn't. That's why there's a massive difference in their values.


Ah so that's why Stastny has almost twice as many FOs as Schenn does. Glad he's not my #1C.

Ah yes faceoff percentage as all the research and analysis shows this is such an important statistic, really weird that teams win the Stanley Cup by scoring goals not winning faceoffs!

 

[HolyJumpin]

The Blues have a totally different perspective on this situation because of the Reaves trade and being able to draft the top European skater at 31. So while it was two firsts for the Flyers it was a 2018 first, Ryan Reaves and a second for dumping Lehtera, Schenn, and Sundquist for the Blues. Its just never gonna add up for both teams.