Salary Cap: Salary Cap & Roster Building - Locked in until July

[Turin]

I think Crosby and Malkin will be elite players for the next five years at least given Crosby just had the best playoff pace of his career and Malkin just had his best regular season in years.

And Kessel just did what?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

But the thing is that you don't need him to come close. It was a long time ago, but I don't remember Letang being a problem on the powerplay in that spot when Gonchar was here. Maybe it's just because Gonchar was such a good PPQB, but I don't remember having issues with Letang there.

Letang's PP totals while Gonch was here ('07-'08 through '09-'10) were 9, 10, and 5 points.

I also don't think keeping Kessel for his powerplay abilities is a strong argument, either. The Penguins can still have a really good powerplay unit without him, and I don't understand where this idea that "Kessel makes the Penguins powerplay elite" is coming from. The Penguins powerplay this year was phenomenal, yes, but the Penguins powerplay in the lockout season in 2013 and 2013-2014 were both better than what it was in 2016-2017, and those two teams didn't have Kessel. The Penguins powerplay in 2015-2016 was bad, it was the 4th worst powerplay that the Penguins have had in the Crosby era.

It's a sad thing to have to acknowledge, but players age. Geno was injured for 20 games in '16-'17 and Sid couldn't single-handedly pick up the slack like he could when he was 26-27 years old back in '13-'14.

'15-'16 was half Johnston, so that's pretty much a write-off.

I was trying to figure out the same, but I wouldn't call the Hawks "shallow". They're pretty deep in good young forwards, the issue is that the Penguins are too. Maybe Gustav Forsling could be an appealing second piece? He played 19 minutes a night for the Hawks this year and is a 21 year old defenseman. To be honest, I really doubt the Hawks are going to trade Saad anyway, so the discussion is probably moot.

If Forsling is the best the Hawks could muster to sweeten a Saad for Kessel deal at this point, it'd be an easy pass from me. Not nearly enough to make up a nearly 60 point discrepancy and similar cap hit, even accounting for Saad's low ebb and Kessel's career year.

I mean, we're talking about a top 10 scorer on a great contract here. I'm not giving that away unless somebody knocks our socks off, and I hope JR feels the same.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Theres zero question this team has a better shot at another Cup WITH Phil ready to go at the start of the 2019 Playoffs. That overshadows maximizing any return you can get for him, for me.

You do everything in your power to fix the issue if there is one first before deciding to move him.

 

[Gurglesons]

And Kessel just did what?

The issue isn’t Kessel is going to fall off a cliff. It is if we can afford spending over 25 million in three players while retaining Rust, Hornqvist, Murray, and Jake and still being able to ice a competitive line-up.

It’s also some distinct attitude issues that have obviously been floated to the media.

 

[Shady Machine]

Are we trying to maximize the chance to win next year or prioritize extending the window but weakening next years chances? For me, I prioritize winning next year and keeping Phil does that. Unless he drops off a cliff next year and there is zero evidence to suggest that he will, he’s movable next off season.

I’ve yet to see a suggested offer that makes the Penguins at least as likely to win next year so I’ll keep Phil around.

 

[Shady Machine]

The issue isn’t Kessel is going to fall off a cliff. It is if we can afford spending over 25 million in three players while retaining Rust, Hornqvist, Murray, and Jake and still being able to ice a competitive line-up.

It’s also some distinct attitude issues that have obviously been floated to the media.

Why can’t you move him next summer when Pens need to move salary?

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's a sad thing to have to acknowledge, but players age. Geno was injured for 20 games in '16-'17 and Sid couldn't single-handedly pick up the slack like he could when he was 26-27 years old back in '13-'14.

And in 2014, Malkin missed 22 games, Neal missed 23 games and Letang missed 43 games. And seeing what Crosby did in the playoffs, I honestly don't buy that he can't do what he did in 2013-2014 anymore. The Penguins had the 3rd best powerplay of their history with a powerplay unit that had Niskanen and Jokinen playing a lot on the top unit.

I think there are 2 really clear reasons to keep Kessel: he's an elite player and he can create offense on his own, specifically the second one being a really big one. A lot of the players suggested can't create on their own. People making this about the powerplay are just trying to find other reasons to justify keeping him. The Penguins powerplay doesn't need Kessel to be effective, they have shown that time and time again. That's just the reality of it, the Penguins can have a powerplay click at 23% with Crosby and Malkin. It's just a weak argument to cite the powerplay as a reason to keep Kessel, the Penguins will still have one of the best powerplays in the league without him.

Why can’t you move him next summer when Pens need to move salary?

Because waiting a summer may be the difference between getting a legit top-6 forward back for Kessel or getting a futures based return for Kessel.

 

[Shady Machine]

Because waiting a summer may be the difference between getting a legit top-6 forward back for Kessel or getting a futures based return for Kessel.

And trading him this year might hurt the Pens chances of winning a Cup. Last year many posters were saying this upcoming season might be the Pens best chances to win another cup and people want to trade Kessel to help extend the window even if it weakens next years team? Just seems weird to me.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And trading him this year might hurt the Pens chances of winning a Cup. Last year many posters were saying this upcoming season might be the Pens best chances to win another cup and people want to trade Kessel to help extend the window even if it weakens next years team? Just seems weird to me.

It definitely would hurt their chances this year, it's just a question of how many runs do you think they have left? Next year is a big one because they have Brassard and Hagelin, and Guentzel on an ELC, but keeping him next year may make winning in the next few years much more difficult.

It's not a black and white answer. I think you hurt your chances in the long run (as in 2 or 3 years from now) by not selling high on Kessel right now, but you hurt your chances next year by selling high on Kessel right now. How important is still having Brassard and Hagelin to you? Trading Kessel now kinda makes the Brassard trade wasted.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

And Kessel just did what?

Won many hot dog eating competitions and then that minor thing of 92pts.

 

[Shady Machine]

It definitely would hurt their chances this year, it's just a question of how many runs do you think they have left? Next year is a big one because they have Brassard and Hagelin, and Guentzel on an ELC, but keeping him next year may make winning in the next few years much more difficult.

It's not a black and white answer. I think you hurt your chances in the long run (as in 2 or 3 years from now) by not selling high on Kessel right now, but you hurt your chances next year by selling high on Kessel right now. How important is still having Brassard and Hagelin to you? Trading Kessel now kinda makes the Brassard trade wasted.

Yup. We have Brass for one more year and extended Horny longer than many were comfortable to maximize the next few years. Keeping Kessel is a big part of that IMO unless you get a really good trade in combo with a move in free agency.

I’m not saying no, but I have yet to see a trade that makes me at all tempted to move him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think if you're moving Kessel right now, you need to get a Hornqvist type of return but better. You have to get a top-6 forward and some other good contributing NHL piece, whether it's another forward (I'd want a fringe 2nd/3rd liner with that top-6 forward tbh) or defenseman. If the return is just a top-6 forward and futures, I think you probably shouldn't go for that, unless you have other deals lined up with trading futures for win now talent. I think you can replace everything that Kessel brings minus his ability to create his own offense (you're just not getting that back if you trade Kessel), you just need multiple players to do that. You won't get 1 player who can replace everything that Kessel does, unless you get really lucky and pull off a guy like Panarin or Dadonov for Kessel.

 

[Gurglesons]

Why can’t you move him next summer when Pens need to move salary?

They can. But then you take a risk that he underachieves or that he continues to have the reported issues with the coaching staff.

What if the Pens go out in the first round and Kessel gets blanked after a 50-60 pt season?

If the Pens aren’t going to move Kessel this season they might as well hang on to him and home Jake, Crosby Malkin and Phil are good enough in one of the next couple years to make another final.

 

[WayneSid9987]

People will also miss Phil, the playmaker, if he's dealt.
Sprong can't hold a candle to Phil in that dept.
Really not wise to deal him unless he's really fed up with being in PIT. Not just Sully but Sid and G. If he doesn't wanna play for those guys, then fine, move him.

 

[WayneSid9987]

They can. But then you take a risk that he underachieves or that he continues to have the reported issues with the coaching staff.

What if the Pens go out in the first round and Kessel gets blanked after a 50-60 pt season?

If the Pens aren’t going to move Kessel this season they might as well hang on to him and home Jake, Crosby Malkin and Phil are good enough in one of the next couple years to make another final.

I mean they can keep Phil, ship off ShearyORHagsORRust+Hunwick and get another player to add in that mix that you mentioned in your last paragraph.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

They can. But then you take a risk that he underachieves or that he continues to have the reported issues with the coaching staff.

What if the Pens go out in the first round and Kessel gets blanked after a 50-60 pt season?

If the Pens aren’t going to move Kessel this season they might as well hang on to him and home Jake, Crosby Malkin and Phil are good enough in one of the next couple years to make another final.

Or they can keep Kessel and move other pieces to improve the areas they need to improve.

Your last paragraph makes it sound like trading Kessel is the ONLY way they can improve the team, otherwise we're just stuck with what we've got.

 

[IcedCapp]

Are we trying to maximize the chance to win next year or prioritize extending the window but weakening next years chances? For me, I prioritize winning next year and keeping Phil does that. Unless he drops off a cliff next year and there is zero evidence to suggest that he will, he’s movable next off season.

I’ve yet to see a suggested offer that makes the Penguins at least as likely to win next year so I’ll keep Phil around.

I think it’s more complicated than that. Kessel is the one “touchable” that could return a lot of value without caveat. No salary. No retention. No picks or anything.

The question really becomes: do you need depth? Do you need a 2nd and 3rd line player (or equivalent) or do you need Kessel?

Comes down to how you evaluate your team. Do you move Letang for a Kessel-type player and move Kessel for a high end D?

Like I said, it’s not a simple equation, in my mind. I think Phil has one more year with this team, max.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean they can keep Phil, ship off ShearyORHagsORRust+Hunwick and get another player to add in that mix that you mentioned in your last paragraph.

The rebuilding pieces you get for Sheary, Hags, Rust, or Hunwick is pointless.

If the team wants to move Kessel this year is likely the ideal window to do it.

And @Sidney the Kidney there are other things we can do, but cap wise Kessel and Letang are the kind of deals that could severely limit what we do.

They are also the type of players that if moved bring back actually pieces when they have value.

Otherwise you are simply moving around role players.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The rebuilding pieces you get for Sheary, Hags, Rust, or Hunwick is pointless.

If the team wants to move Kessel this year is likely the ideal window to do it.

And @Sidney the Kidney there are other things we can do, but cap wise Kessel and Letang are the kind of deals that could severely limit what we do.

They are also the type of players that if moved bring back actually pieces when they have value.

Otherwise you are simply moving around role players.

I'd argue that if the organization isn't going to move Letang or Kessel, then moving around role players is perfectly fine. I'm happy with the roster we have, if they can switch up some of the depth guys and bring in more useful ones (ie. move out Hunwick's salary, move out Sheary for a middle six winger who is bigger, better defensively, has more jam, move out Kuhnhackl for someone who adds more than blocking shots on the PK, etc.).

 

[Empoleon8771]

The problem is that I don't think moving depth players really does all that much. I don't think you'll get what you need by trading guys like Sheary and Hunwick. That doesn't mean you trade Kessel to get what you need, but I don't think moving around low value players will really move the needle. You're not going to get anything by moving those guys.

That's why I think moving Rust might be worth looking into. Sure, losing Rust would hurt, but he's someone with value that you can afford to trade. You can get a LWer that brings what you need by trading him. I'd be shocked if you got more than a draft pick for Sheary, and I'd be surprised if you got anything for Hunwick. Trading Hunwick and Sheary is more or less doing nothing this off-season. That may be fine for some, but you're not going to improve with any significance by just moving those two.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The problem is that I don't think moving depth players really does all that much. I don't think you'll get what you need by trading guys like Sheary and Hunwick. That doesn't mean you trade Kessel to get what you need, but I don't think moving around low value players will really move the needle. You're not going to get anything by moving those guys.

That's why I think moving Rust might be worth looking into. Sure, losing Rust would hurt, but he's someone with value that you can afford to trade. You can get a LWer that brings what you need by trading him. I'd be shocked if you got more than a draft pick for Sheary, and I'd be surprised if you got anything for Hunwick.

Even if you can't get a player back for Sheary, getting a draft pick to re-stock the system while unloading his salary can yield you the player you want via free agency.

Just an example, so if you hate the player, focus more on the general point. But if you unload Sheary's salary, you can then sign Matt Calvert in free agency. He might not produce as much as Sheary, but IMO, we have enough pure offense that we'd benefit more from someone who can add some physicality and PK ability (so we don't have to dress Kuhn/Rowney all the time) than Sheary provides.

IMO, in the above scenario, I think the Pens address an area that hurt them this season.

 

[WayneSid9987]

The hardest thing to acquire on the wing is what guys like Phil, Panarin bring to the table.
Trading Phil away for a Neidereitter or Saad + Sprong doesn't make this a more dangerous team in 2019. Just makes it more balanced in terms of LW vs RW depth.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Even if you can't get a player back for Sheary, getting a draft pick to re-stock the system while unloading his salary can yield you the player you want via free agency.

Just an example, so if you hate the player, focus more on the general point. But if you unload Sheary's salary, you can then sign Matt Calvert in free agency. He might not produce as much as Sheary, but IMO, we have enough pure offense that we'd benefit more from someone who can add some physicality and PK ability (so we don't have to dress Kuhn/Rowney all the time) than Sheary provides.

IMO, in the above scenario, I think the Pens address an area that hurt them this season.

But that's just the thing, swapping Sheary for Calvert really doesn't do anything for me. For what Sheary makes per year, you're not going to get anything that really makes much of a difference in free agency. I don't think that's much of an improvement, the issues I see with the Penguins right now are a middle-6 LWer (preferably a 2nd liner) and a #4 RD. I don't think you solve those problems by just swapping depth players. Getting a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Sheary really doesn't do anything because draft picks are just scratch off lottery tickets, and swapping Sheary for basically any UFA winger you can sign for his money doesn't move the needle at all. It's basically making no changes, it's a minimalist impact by swapping a bottom-6 skill player for a bottom-6 grinder.

It's even more true with moving Hunwick, because the best case scenario with moving Hunwick is that you just get rid of him. Those aren't any tangible changes, it's just getting rid of redundant players that the Penguins don't need.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'd argue that if the organization isn't going to move Letang or Kessel, then moving around role players is perfectly fine. I'm happy with the roster we have, if they can switch up some of the depth guys and bring in more useful ones (ie. move out Hunwick's salary, move out Sheary for a middle six winger who is bigger, better defensively, has more jam, move out Kuhnhackl for someone who adds more than blocking shots on the PK, etc.).

That is fine. The issue will come over the next two years when we have a completely empty farm and have to start losing players like Schultz and Hagelin to UFA.

 

[Gurglesons]

The hardest thing to acquire on the wing is what guys like Phil, Panarin bring to the table.
Trading Phil away for a Neidereitter or Saad + Sprong doesn't make this a more dangerous team in 2019. Just makes it more balanced in terms of LW vs RW depth.

The thing is we have Jake, Malkin, and Crosby. That is a top three heavy enough to win any series. Then we have Rust, Brassard, Hagelin and Hornqvist as top nine forwards that also bring a ton. And a wild card in Sprong.

By bringing in a legitimately responsible forward like Nino or Coyle that brings a different element to our top nine and a pick that could potentially give us a replacement for Hagelin or Schultz in the system you are making a potentially better team.