Proposal: S.Weber for T.Liljegren, K.Kapanen, C.Pickard

[Habs Halifax]

This is HFBoards. Players start a steep decline at age 20.

That only applies to Habs players

 

[slimbob8]

Hainsey at age 36 vs Weber when he turns 36. Think about that. I'm not being optimistic, you are being overly negative cause you want to purchase Weber for cheap. Go get your top pairing Defenseman somewhere else if you want to devalue our asset.

Ha, I've got zero desire for Weber on my team. That contract makes him a non starter for me. That's before you even start discussing the overpayments you're suggesting. I guess we'll just agree to disagree on this one.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Ha, I've got zero desire for Weber on my team. That contract makes him a non starter for me. That's before you even start discussing the overpayments you're suggesting. I guess we'll just agree to disagree on this one.

I'm assuming your team is the Leafs and your coach disagrees with you

 

[slimbob8]

I'm assuming your team is the Leafs and your coach disagrees with you

I don't mean I wouldn't love Weber on my team. Obviously anybody would. But we live in the real world where salary caps and player ages matter.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't mean I wouldn't love Weber on my team. Obviously anybody would. But we live in the real world where salary caps and player ages matter.

You would love Weber on your team obviously but a top paring defenseman from the age of 33-36 is not worth $7.87 cap hit for 4 years when the cap is going up and up. . Well, good luck finding that guy in the draft where you will be picking 20+ range year after year now. Were not trading Weber away like you did with Kessel and Captain Pylon. Not going to happen.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

You would love Weber on your team obviously but a top paring defenseman from the age of 33-36 is not worth $7.87 cap hit for 4 years when the cap is going up and up. . Well, good luck finding that guy in the draft where you will be picking 20+ range year after year now. Were not trading Weber away like you did with Kessel and Captain Pylon. Not going to happen.

While luck is involved, it is closer to the rule than the exception that the top d-men are not found at the top of the draft.

Hedman 2nd
Doughty 2nd
Suter 7th
Karlsson 15th
Burns 20th
Carlson 27th
Josi 38th
Subban 43rd
Weber 49th
Gostisbehere 78th
Klingberg 131st

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Hainsey at age 36 vs Weber when he turns 36. Think about that. I'm not being optimistic, you are being overly negative cause you want to purchase Weber for cheap. Go get your top pairing Defenseman somewhere else if you want to devalue our asset.

Hainsey has a short term cap hit of $3M. Pretty big difference, don't you think? If you offer up Weber at a reduced cost, expect better offers.

 

[Habs Halifax]

While luck is involved, it is closer to the rule than the exception that the top d-men are not found at the top of the draft.

Hedman 2nd
Doughty 2nd
Suter 7th
Karlsson 15th
Burns 20th
Carlson 27th
Josi 38th
Subban 43rd
Weber 49th
Gostisbehere 78th
Klingberg 131st

What do you think the probability is? Naming random names over the last 11 years eh. Your highest pick is 131st (round 4). 4 rounds x 30 teams x 11 years = 1320 picks. 11/1320 is less than 1% chance. I guess you feel lucky that your 20% chance at winning the lottery got you Mathews.

You got any more random names to increase the 1% chance at getting a top paring defenseman? This doesn't even factor that we were talking about the chance of getting this asset from the 20+ spot in the 1st round. You have 5 guys that are drafted 20 or less but I'm sure there are other guys you can think about?

 

[Boxscore]

People are underselling Weber here by a lot. If the Leafs could get him for this offer, they would be all over that. Babcock, Lou and Shanny know damn well what Weber would bring to Toronto.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The point is Weber is not in decline. If he is, Burns is in real trouble as they are in the same age and Burns's stats took a dip this year. See how ridiculous this sounds? What's wrong with Burns? Only 10 goals this year and nowhere near his previous 2 seasons. He must be in decline right?

I'm not sure why it sounds ridiculous? Could be true. Only time will tell. I'll go with where the data leads rather than assumptions.

Weber had 16 pts in 26 NHL games with 6 goals. That prorates to 50pts and 19 goals. Weber has only ever cracked 50pts in his career 3 times and is very consistently in the 40-50pts and 15-20+ goal range. Go ahead, compare it to any previous year if you wish

In a small sample size, Matthews had a better year than McDavid did in his sophomore year. See how that works?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

What do you think the probability is? Naming random names over the last 11 years eh. Your highest pick is 131st (round 4). 4 rounds x 30 teams x 11 years = 1320 picks. 11/1320 is less than 1% chance. I guess you feel lucky that your 20% chance at winning the lottery got you Mathews.

You got any more random names to increase the 1% chance at getting a top paring defenseman? This doesn't even factor that we were talking about the chance of getting this asset from the 20+ spot in the 1st round. You have 5 guys that are drafted 20 or less but I'm sure there are other guys you can think about?

There's nothing random about it. It's the top point producers amongst NHL d-men. Seems the odds are pretty high that the higher end (at least offensively) D are coming from outside the top 14. Want to have some fun? Go look at all the D selected top 14 and how they stack up over a period of time. Some good, a whole lot of "meh". Dmen are tough.

 

[shortfuze]

People are underselling Weber here by a lot. If the Leafs could get him for this offer, they would be all over that. Babcock, Lou and Shanny know damn well what Weber would bring to Toronto.

Agreed. So many people seem to think that his play will just fall off when he hits 35. Guys like Lidstrom, Neidermayer and Pronger played well past that. Now I’m not saying he’s as good as those hall of famers but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good player himself going into his late 30’s

 

[ponder]

I’d love to have current Weber on the team, great player, and a perfect fit stylistically.

However, his contract is TERRIFYING. He’ll be 33 at the start of next season, and is already starting to slow down. He’s signed for 8 MORE YEARS, at $7.9 mil/year. If he loses another step soon, he could quickly become an albatross contract. He could make it difficult for us to keep our young core together.

A deal like this could work out great, or terribly. Ultimately I think I’m too risk averse to want to do it. We’ve got an exceptionally bright future, and this deal COULD make it even brighter if Weber has great longevity, but the risk of it sinking the team is too high IMO.

 

[Critical13]

Oh dear God...absolutely not.

 

[Patagonia]

I’d love to have current Weber on the team, great player, and a perfect fit stylistically.

However, his contract is TERRIFYING. He’ll be 33 at the start of next season, and is already starting to slow down. He’s signed for 8 MORE YEARS, at $7.9 mil/year. If he loses another step soon, he could quickly become an albatross contract. He could make it difficult for us to keep our young core together.

A deal like this could work out great, or terribly. Ultimately I think I’m too risk averse to want to do it. We’ve got an exceptionally bright future, and this deal COULD make it even brighter if Weber has great longevity, but the risk of it sinking the team is too high IMO.

The only way the Leafs gets out of this contract is Weber retires after a few years. His deal was heavily front-end loaded and will only earn near the league minimum the last few seasons. It might not be worth him to continue playing and the remaining years charged back to Nashville.

However, if he suffers a permanent LTI then the acquiring team is screwed.

Still a very good player, but the contract is terrifying.

 

[rent free]

LOL Weber is worth more than McDonagh.

No he isn't. He's worth a little over than half

 

[dukeofjive]

Yes plz and thank you

 

[slimbob8]

Agreed. So many people seem to think that his play will just fall off when he hits 35. Guys like Lidstrom, Neidermayer and Pronger played well past that. Now I’m not saying he’s as good as those hall of famers but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good player himself going into his late 30’s

Again, the guys you've listed are the exceptions to the rule, not the norm. Sure Weber could be another exception, but there's much, much more examples of players that regressed significantly so all I'm saying is you're betting against the odds assuming Weber will be one of these exceptions. Also, I'm pretty sure both Neidermayer and Pronger retired when they were 36 so they're not exactly the best examples to prove your point with.

 

[rent free]

You would love Weber on your team obviously but a top paring defenseman from the age of 33-36 is not worth $7.87 cap hit for 4 years when the cap is going up and up. . Well, good luck finding that guy in the draft where you will be picking 20+ range year after year now. Were not trading Weber away like you did with Kessel and Captain Pylon. Not going to happen.

And you know that because?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

How is this thread still a thing?

 

[Habs Halifax]

And you know that because?

It's my opinion. If Hainsey can be doing what he is doing for the Leafs this year at age 36, I'm a betting man that Weber can maintain his level of play from age 33-36. You have two choices...

1. If you want Weber, pay up. Don't bother trying to devalue him and to justify a buy low price. It won't get you anywhere. Habs are not shopping Weber and I prefer to keep him. However, if you want him, Habs will listen if the offer is serious and not an attempt to buy low. Forget about that

2. If you don't want Weber cause of either decline issues or too much of a high asking price. Move on and say we have no deal.

 

[NotNotALeafsFan]

It's my opinion. If Hainsey can be doing what he is doing for the Leafs this year at age 36, I'm a betting man that Weber can maintain his level of play from age 33-36. You have two choices...

1. If you want Weber, pay up. Don't bother trying to devalue him and to justify a buy low price. It won't get you anywhere. Habs are not shopping Weber and I prefer to keep him. However, if you want him, Habs will listen if the offer is serious and not an attempt to buy low. Forget about that

2. If you don't want Weber cause of either decline issues or too much of a high asking price. Move on and say we have no deal.

Why do you want Weber if the habs need to rebuild?

 

[rent free]

It's my opinion. If Hainsey can be doing what he is doing for the Leafs this year at age 36, I'm a betting man that Weber can maintain his level of play from age 33-36. You have two choices...

1. If you want Weber, pay up. Don't bother trying to devalue him and to justify a buy low price. It won't get you anywhere. Habs are not shopping Weber and I prefer to keep him. However, if you want him, Habs will listen if the offer is serious and not an attempt to buy low. Forget about that

2. If you don't want Weber cause of either decline issues or too much of a high asking price. Move on and say we have no deal.

hainsey's been declining recently so that isn't a good comparison

 

[Shootertooter]

That only applies to Habs players

please see every discussion on Rick Nash prior to him being moved at the deadline going back at least 2 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

hainsey's been declining recently so that isn't a good comparison

Weber > Hainsey (at all age points). Leafs have Hainsey in the top 4D at the age of 36 and pared with Rielly at the moment. It was an example that squashes this Weber is declining and will disappear very soon propaganda. So because of this, you must trade him to the Leafs for whatever you can get right now.

Hainsey has 21 points in 66 games. His highest point total since the 2009 season. Decline has hit this guy hard in his early to mid 30's I tell you! Why the hell did the Leafs ever sign him? Heck, why did the Leafs sign Marleau to a 3 year deal at $6.25M from age 38-40!

Marleau has 36pts in 68 games as a 38 year old. Decline with him started when? What age? You tell me. Was it age 32 or 35? 36?, 37, 38? Why the hell did the Leafs sign him for 3 years if decline was such a concern.