Proposal: S.Weber for T.Liljegren, K.Kapanen, C.Pickard

[besser]

Very underwhelming return for Weber

 

[ole ole]

When do you think he'll start declining?

About a yr before he retires. Than the Habs will say good bye to his cap hit.

 

[ole ole]

Salary is just a number for the Leafs. They're too rich of an organization to care if Weber is getting paid 3m or 8m. They care about the cap hit as they need to resign our young trio. When Weber is 39 years old, his cap hit will still be 7.5m and that's a no go for this Leafs fan.

Do you really believe that Weber will be still playing at 39 getting paid 1 mil a season.

 

[MagicalRazor]

Do you think he is slower today than he was 6 years ago or something?

Which of the following is Weber declining with? When I say declining... We have to see major drops offs and not a up/down trend you would see with all players of all ages.

- Skating?
- Goal Scoring?
- Being Physical?
- Point production?

you jump to assumptions quicker than my wife , Hes 32 years old will be 33 when we trade away 2 of our best prospects not worth it for the leafs at the moment

 

[NotNotALeafsFan]

Do you really believe that Weber will be still playing at 39 getting paid 1 mil a season.

Do you really believe that Weber wouldn’t play in the best hockey league in the world for a 7 figure salary?
There’s just as much evidence stating that he’ll finish his contract out than not so I don’t know where you get your confidence from..

 

[Benstheman]

Obviously Dion and Shea are different players.

Weber is 32, contract ends when he is 40. $7.857 million per. Coming off a big injury that means this year he will play under 30 games this year.

Phaneuf was 30, contract ending at age 35. $7 million per.

I obviously know Shea age 32 is better than Dion age 30. But Shea being signed for 8 more years (40) vs Dion being done in 5 years (35) changes things allot.

I don't think Montreal fans can really think he has allot of positive value with that contract unless they retain money right?

Except the fact that he is still top 10 D in the league, yeah there are no positive with Shea.

 

[Benstheman]

We can get a better d-man for that package.

 

[Benstheman]

Soooo many things wrong with the comments here.

-Weber has not shown any signs of declining whatsoever. Still having the same stats despite playing with random plugs.
-Slow?? No he is never been slow and still isn't. I never seen a forward, no matter how fast they are in the ''New'' nhl, overrun Weber on the outside. Never. He off course never been the fastest but positioning and size makes him really tough to beat.
-His actual AAV is ok for a D of his quality (yes i think he is still top 10). He might start to decline in 3-4 years but alot of D will earn way more that him and their contracts won't look any good , no matter how good they are. For example. Next year, what do you prefer : Karlsson at 13M$ per or Weber at 7,8M$?? Debatable imo.
-Petite graine (good prospect), Kapanen (good prospect) and Pickard (WTF??) is not a good package for a top 10 D. Ok maybe he is only top 15 D but you wouldn't even get a no.2 D for that package.

 

[Habs Halifax]

you jump to assumptions quicker than my wife , Hes 32 years old will be 33 when we trade away 2 of our best prospects not worth it for the leafs at the moment

I didn't jump to any assumptions.. I ask you a question? Anyways... Habs are not trading Weber. Not worth it for the Habs at the moment.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Salary is just a number for the Leafs. They're too rich of an organization to care if Weber is getting paid 3m or 8m. They care about the cap hit as they need to resign our young trio. When Weber is 39 years old, his cap hit will still be 7.5m and that's a no go for this Leafs fan.

If you want to focus on Weber from age 38-40 playing games in the NHL, all the power to you. There is a very low % that he plays those years. Heck, it's even doubtful he plays at age 37 when his salary is $3M. I understand your financial advantage. It means nothing to the Habs in trade negotiations and other teams will beat your offer cause they would value the salary being less than the cap hit.

No Leaf fan is going fool any Habs fan on Weber's value as he is still a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman. And there is no deal I see working anyways. I sincerely wish Leafs fan luck with finding that missing piece on D. Habs are not trading Weber to the Leafs for a deal that only works for the Leafs. You have to understand this. Nylander is a very big ask and I understand why you decline but that is the only piece that I see working for the Habs. The other deal I would entertain is Liljegren, and at least 2- 1st round picks. Price is high for a guy like Weber and he still will be one darn good NHL defenseman who can score goals from the back end and provide stability for 3 or 4 more years. You don't get that for cheap in today's NHL. Look at what the Lighting paid for McDonagh for 2 years.

 

[rent free]

If you want to focus on Weber from age 38-40 playing games in the NHL, all the power to you. There is a very low % that he plays those years. Heck, it's even doubtful he plays at age 37 when his salary is $3M. I understand your financial advantage. It means nothing to the Habs in trade negotiations and other teams will beat your offer cause they would value the salary being less than the cap hit.

No Leaf fan is going fool any Habs fan on Weber's value as he is still a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman. And there is no deal I see working anyways. I sincerely wish Leafs fan luck with finding that missing piece on D. Habs are not trading Weber to the Leafs for a deal that only works for the Leafs. You have to understand this. Nylander is a very big ask and I understand why you decline but that is the only piece that I see working for the Habs. The other deal I would entertain is Liljegren, and at least 2- 1st round picks. Price is high for a guy like Weber and he still will be one darn good NHL defenseman who can score goals from the back end and provide stability for 3 or 4 more years. You don't get that for cheap in today's NHL. Look at what the Lighting paid for McDonagh for 2 years.

Lightning paid f*** all for mcdonagh. By that logic weber should get less than half of that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Most people don't think he's bad now. He's not the Norris level player he once was but he's still a damn good player. Again, the salary itself isn't the issue. It's the cap hit and if he decides to play out the contract or close to it. I'd easily take Weber on the Leafs if I was confident that he'd walk away from millions at the end of his career.

Age 33-35/36: 3 or 4 more years and Weber will be somewhere in the top 10-20 NHL defenseman. I think he is a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman today.

Age 36-37: Hard to say because were talking about 4-5 more years from today. Maybe he is a top 4D by that point at worse case.

Age 38-40: Salary drops to $1M for the last 3 years. I doubt he plays those years. By that point he received $107M out of his $110M 14 year contract. This also doesn't factor in the leverage any team would have with Weber over the Preds. If Weber retires 3 years early, there is a whopping $24M in cap recapture penalty the Preds face ($8M per year). Preds will be trying to acquire Weber to place him on LTIR and avoid the cap hit at all costs. If you think the next CBA will eliminate this, think again. There will be many GM's and Owners who played by the rules (or didn't work around the rules) that will not let those teams who worked around rules and gain the advantage for so many years. It's a story that will gain steam in the coming years with a few contracts like this. Hossa is the first.

So look at what the Lightning paid for McDonagh for 2 years. In any trade with Weber, you get him for 4 more years from 33-36. If a guy like Hainsey can do what he is doing at age 36 this year, I'm sure Weber can be close to the guy we all know today at age 36.

You want Weber? You paying for 4 solid years as a top paring defenseman and you gain the cap recapture penalty leverage against the Preds. It won't be cheap to acquire people!

 

[Benstheman]

Age 33-35/36: 3 or 4 more years and Weber will be somewhere in the top 10-20 NHL defenseman. I think he is a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman today.

Age 36-37: Hard to say because were talking about 4-5 more years from today. Maybe he is a top 4D by that point at worse case.

Age 38-40: Salary drops to $1M for the last 3 years. I doubt he plays those years. By that point he received $107M out of his $110M 14 year contract. This also doesn't factor in the leverage any team would have with Weber over the Preds. If Weber retires 3 years early, there is a whopping $24M in cap recapture penalty the Preds face ($8M per year). Preds will be trying to acquire Weber to place him on LTIR and avoid the cap hit at all costs. If you think the next CBA will eliminate this, think again. There will be many GM's and Owners who played by the rules (or didn't work around the rules) that will not let those teams who worked around rules and gain the advantage for so many years. It's a story that will gain steam in the coming years with a few contracts like this. Hossa is the first.

So look at what the Lightning paid for McDonagh for 2 years. In any trade with Weber, you get him for 4 more years from 33-36. If a guy like Hainsey can do what he is doing at age 36 this year, I'm sure Weber can be close to the guy we all know today at age 36.

You want Weber? You paying for 4 solid years as a top paring defenseman and you gain the cap recapture penalty leverage against the Preds. It won't be cheap to acquire people!

To be fair and realistic, this is exactly the best possible scenario for Weber contract's value. But most other teams fans always use the worst case scenario to describe Weber's value. So i have no problem with you doing this.

My point is the reality will probably be somewhere in between those two scenarios. But that will still be worth more than the OP.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Lightning paid **** all for mcdonagh. By that logic weber should get less than half of that.

I think the Rangers could of gotten more but the return was solid...

- Namestnikov vs Miller. It's a wash.

- Howden: Grade A center prospect. 6'-2", 194 lbs and he's trending well as a 19 year old.

- Hajek: A grade B prospect on D with some upside. He had a very good U20 worlds. An interesting prospect on D for sure.

- 2018 1st: No explanation required

- 2019 2nd: Conditional pick becomes a 1st if the Lightning win the cup.

All this for 2 years of McDonagh. Weber for 4 years and cap recapture penalty leverage against the Preds is worth at least twice as much. Leafs don't have the pieces in their prospect pool to pull off this deal. The only grade A prospect in your prospect pool worth talking about is Liljegren. Not interested in Kapanen, we have a few prospects like this already on wing and he don't address a need.

 

[Benstheman]

Lightning paid **** all for mcdonagh. By that logic weber should get less than half of that.

LOL Weber is worth more than McDonagh.

 

[Habs Halifax]

To be fair and realistic, this is exactly the best possible scenario for Weber contract's value. But most other teams fans always use the worst case scenario to describe Weber's value. So i have no problem with you doing this.

My point is the reality will probably be somewhere in between those two scenarios. But that will still be worth more than the OP.

I look at what the Lightning got for 2 years of McDonagh. Yeah he is younger but Weber is just as good or better at the age of 32. With Weber, you get 4 years from age 33-36 and the cap recapture penalty leverage over the Preds. That is worth twice as much as what the Rangers got or something close to twice as much. The idea that Weber can be acquired for cheap is ridiculous!

Package 1: Weber for Nylander. I know the Leafs don't do this but he's the only piece on their roster I would want.

Package 2: Weber for Liljegren and at least 2 first round picks. This is not enough but I find it difficult to find any other prospect worth asking for in their system. They have a few grade B prospects but the Habs are already stacked with these types.

I just don't see a deal between the Habs and Leafs. Leafs don't have the prospects we need outside of Liljegren and their young assets on the current roster are pieces they don't want to trade.

 

[NotNotALeafsFan]

If you want to focus on Weber from age 38-40 playing games in the NHL, all the power to you. There is a very low % that he plays those years. Heck, it's even doubtful he plays at age 37 when his salary is $3M. I understand your financial advantage. It means nothing to the Habs in trade negotiations and other teams will beat your offer cause they would value the salary being less than the cap hit.

No Leaf fan is going fool any Habs fan on Weber's value as he is still a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman. And there is no deal I see working anyways. I sincerely wish Leafs fan luck with finding that missing piece on D. Habs are not trading Weber to the Leafs for a deal that only works for the Leafs. You have to understand this. Nylander is a very big ask and I understand why you decline but that is the only piece that I see working for the Habs. The other deal I would entertain is Liljegren, and at least 2- 1st round picks. Price is high for a guy like Weber and he still will be one darn good NHL defenseman who can score goals from the back end and provide stability for 3 or 4 more years. You don't get that for cheap in today's NHL. Look at what the Lighting paid for McDonagh for 2 years.

I don't understand why you keep saying low chance of him playing into his late 30's. There's absolutely zero proof that Weber will opt out of his contract before the end yet you say there's a low % because he's making one million dollars. ONE MILLION DOLLARS!? Who wouldn't wanna play in the best hockey league for one million dollars?

 

[Paulinvancouver]

How many firsts do they need to add to that package?

 

[slimbob8]

If you want to focus on Weber from age 38-40 playing games in the NHL, all the power to you. There is a very low % that he plays those years. Heck, it's even doubtful he plays at age 37 when his salary is $3M. I understand your financial advantage. It means nothing to the Habs in trade negotiations and other teams will beat your offer cause they would value the salary being less than the cap hit.

No Leaf fan is going fool any Habs fan on Weber's value as he is still a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman. And there is no deal I see working anyways. I sincerely wish Leafs fan luck with finding that missing piece on D. Habs are not trading Weber to the Leafs for a deal that only works for the Leafs. You have to understand this. Nylander is a very big ask and I understand why you decline but that is the only piece that I see working for the Habs. The other deal I would entertain is Liljegren, and at least 2- 1st round picks. Price is high for a guy like Weber and he still will be one darn good NHL defenseman who can score goals from the back end and provide stability for 3 or 4 more years. You don't get that for cheap in today's NHL. Look at what the Lighting paid for McDonagh for 2 years.

Age 33-35/36: 3 or 4 more years and Weber will be somewhere in the top 10-20 NHL defenseman. I think he is a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman today.

Age 36-37: Hard to say because were talking about 4-5 more years from today. Maybe he is a top 4D by that point at worse case.

Age 38-40: Salary drops to $1M for the last 3 years. I doubt he plays those years. By that point he received $107M out of his $110M 14 year contract. This also doesn't factor in the leverage any team would have with Weber over the Preds. If Weber retires 3 years early, there is a whopping $24M in cap recapture penalty the Preds face ($8M per year). Preds will be trying to acquire Weber to place him on LTIR and avoid the cap hit at all costs. If you think the next CBA will eliminate this, think again. There will be many GM's and Owners who played by the rules (or didn't work around the rules) that will not let those teams who worked around rules and gain the advantage for so many years. It's a story that will gain steam in the coming years with a few contracts like this. Hossa is the first.

So look at what the Lightning paid for McDonagh for 2 years. In any trade with Weber, you get him for 4 more years from 33-36. If a guy like Hainsey can do what he is doing at age 36 this year, I'm sure Weber can be close to the guy we all know today at age 36.

You want Weber? You paying for 4 solid years as a top paring defenseman and you gain the cap recapture penalty leverage against the Preds. It won't be cheap to acquire people!

You're being very optimistic with those projections. People can give examples of players that played at a high level in their mid to late 30's years and that's fine because there are a lot of them. But if you go with the odds, the vast majority of players have a huge decline in their game at the age Weber is now or earlier. I think it's much more likely that he loses a bunch of foot speed (like most players do) and becomes a 7.8M bottom pairing d-man at age 36 than your "worst case" still a top 4D projection. You think Chicago fans thought Seabrook would decline as quickly as he did? Weber may very well be one of the anomalies and not follow that trend, but you'd be betting against stacked odds if you're banking on that. GM's aren't stupid; they can't afford to be short sighted when a player has a contract like Weber does. There's not a team in the league that would give up one of the packages you're suggesting for him.

 

[slimbob8]

I don't understand why you keep saying low chance of him playing into his late 30's. There's absolutely zero proof that Weber will opt out of his contract before the end yet you say there's a low % because he's making one million dollars. ONE MILLION DOLLARS!? Who wouldn't wanna play in the best hockey league for one million dollars?

It's all relative. A million bucks is a lot to everyone in the real world, but for a guy that's been making 8M for years it's chump change. IMO it's extremely unlikely he plays out that contract.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

No way weber is bringing in a haul like that. get the f*** out of here.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't understand why you keep saying low chance of him playing into his late 30's. There's absolutely zero proof that Weber will opt out of his contract before the end yet you say there's a low % because he's making one million dollars. ONE MILLION DOLLARS!? Who wouldn't wanna play in the best hockey league for one million dollars?

Hossa? He was able to work through the pain when his salary dropped from $7.9M to $4M last year but not able to work through the pain when his salary dropped from $4M to $1M this year and for the next 4 years.

Yes, you do need help and you don't understand! We agree on this!

 

[Habs Halifax]

No way weber is bringing in a haul like that. get the **** out of here.

Weber, not weber. And yes he will! That's if the Habs even trade him. I remember the trolls devaluing Galchenyuk this past off season too. Your not fooling anybody

 

[izlez]

Age 33-35/36: 3 or 4 more years and Weber will be somewhere in the top 10-20 NHL defenseman. I think he is a fringe top 10 NHL defenseman today.

Age 36-37: Hard to say because were talking about 4-5 more years from today. Maybe he is a top 4D by that point at worse case.

Age 38-40: Salary drops to $1M for the last 3 years. I doubt he plays those years. By that point he received $107M out of his $110M 14 year contract. This also doesn't factor in the leverage any team would have with Weber over the Preds. If Weber retires 3 years early, there is a whopping $24M in cap recapture penalty the Preds face ($8M per year). Preds will be trying to acquire Weber to place him on LTIR and avoid the cap hit at all costs. If you think the next CBA will eliminate this, think again. There will be many GM's and Owners who played by the rules (or didn't work around the rules) that will not let those teams who worked around rules and gain the advantage for so many years. It's a story that will gain steam in the coming years with a few contracts like this. Hossa is the first.

So look at what the Lightning paid for McDonagh for 2 years. In any trade with Weber, you get him for 4 more years from 33-36. If a guy like Hainsey can do what he is doing at age 36 this year, I'm sure Weber can be close to the guy we all know today at age 36.

You want Weber? You paying for 4 solid years as a top paring defenseman and you gain the cap recapture penalty leverage against the Preds. It won't be cheap to acquire people!

This is HFBoards. Players start a steep decline at age 20.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You're being very optimistic with those projections. People can give examples of players that played at a high level in their mid to late 30's years and that's fine because there are a lot of them. But if you go with the odds, the vast majority of players have a huge decline in their game at the age Weber is now or earlier. I think it's much more likely that he loses a bunch of foot speed (like most players do) and becomes a 7.8M bottom pairing d-man at age 36 than your "worst case" still a top 4D projection. You think Chicago fans thought Seabrook would decline as quickly as he did? Weber may very well be one of the anomalies and not follow that trend, but you'd be betting against stacked odds if you're banking on that. GM's aren't stupid; they can't afford to be short sighted when a player has a contract like Weber does. There's not a team in the league that would give up one of the packages you're suggesting for him.

Hainsey at age 36 vs Weber when he turns 36. Think about that. I'm not being optimistic, you are being overly negative cause you want to purchase Weber for cheap. Go get your top pairing Defenseman somewhere else if you want to devalue our asset.