Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins '17-18 Season

[Soundwave]

And yet 3/4 of his shots this year have been from the faceoff dot or closer with 7 of 12 being in or very close to the high danger zone.

https://icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9

Virtually all forwards shoot from there, unless you're a d-man you're not shooting from like the point or something.

 

[nabob]

And yet 3/4 of his shots this year have been from the faceoff dot or closer with 7 of 12 being in or very close to the high danger zone.

https://icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9

1/12 shots from outside the circle all year. It is possible that we see what we want to see.

Just like Spawn trying to lay blame for the GWG with RNH on the play. He was the least culpable player on the ice yet some people love their scapegoats.

 

[ujju2]

And yet 3/4 of his shots this year have been from the faceoff dot or closer with 7 of 12 being in or very close to the high danger zone.

https://icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9

1/12 shots from outside the circle all year. It is possible that we see what we want to see.

This is why I always like your posts. You always have some solid stats to back them up. Keep it up.

 

[Asiaoil]

And yet 3/4 of his shots this year have been from the faceoff dot or closer with 7 of 12 being in or very close to the high danger zone.

https://icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9

1/12 shots from outside the circle all year. It is possible that we see what we want to see.

We I guess you can spin it that way but I see only 2 shots from the killing floor. Fact is in the back half of the 3rd period yesterday he came over the blue line and lofted another useless shot from the middle of nowhere into the goalie that simply turned over possession instead of attacking or creating in a 1-1 game. Sometime what we see is reality. The guy completely lacks aggressiveness and any willingness to put himself in harms way to score. Not my favorite player type and the Oilers top 6 used to be infested with these guys (Eberle, RNH, Gagner etc etc).

Every player in the top 6 needs (McDavid included) needs to be willing to pay the price to score, and when the Oilers fall into their bad old habits of being a soft rush team, they lose. When they are willing to pay the price physically and crash crash the net like in the playoffs, they win. Now it's early days of the season, but they are not getting any soft games from teams thinking they will be an easy win, so they better get used to playing at the high level expected of a contender.

 

[ujju2]

Every player in the top 6 needs (McDavid included) needs to be willing to pay the price to score, and when the Oilers fall into their bad old habits of being a soft rush team, they lose. When they are willing to pay the price physically and crash crash the net like in the playoffs, they win. Now it's early days of the season, but they are not getting any soft games from teams thinking they will be an easy win, so they better get used to playing at the high level expected of a contender.

Disagree. Not every player needs to play the same style. The whole point of having guys like Looch, Maroon, and Kassian is to allow the smaller skill guys to do their thing with more space and time. We need a good balance of both, which we have (except on wing, not enough skill). We just need everyone to play their best. Not necessarily play the same physical game.

 

[Spawn]

And yet 3/4 of his shots this year have been from the faceoff dot or closer with 7 of 12 being in or very close to the high danger zone.

https://icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9

1/12 shots from outside the circle all year. It is possible that we see what we want to see.

And what about at 5v5?

According to that site 7 shots in 7 games, 4 of which have had any reasonable chance at going in. In 7 games...

Am I supposed to be impressed with that? Your site just reinforces the fact that he's essentially a non-factor at best at 5v5. I mean christ. Nuge has 12 freaking shots in 7 games... He's such a nothing player.

 

[nabob]

Virtually all forwards shoot from there, unless you're a d-man you're not shooting from like the point or something.

But the poster he responded to was crying that all Nuge ever does it take pointless shots from the outside. Which isnt true.

 

[nabob]

Other "nothing players" with only 12 shots in 7 or more games

- Ryan Johansen
- Mark Scheiflie

Shots on goal, more specifically 5on5 shots on goal, is the new determining factor for a players worth. Used to be face off percentage, but now that Nuge is at 52% on the season the goalposts have been moved. Its not like his primary skill and role has always been that of a set up man and play maker or anything, guess some people expect him to start shooting all the time...that should prove his value.

 

[CupofOil]

Nuge looks like the same old player to me. He always shows some bursts for a few games that gives the impression of old Nuge then he falls back to being a non-factor at even strength for long stretches thereafter.
Blame the linemates all you want but his lines continuously provide virtually no threat of offense at even strength. 43 points last year, 1 (ONE) even strength point in 7 games this year. This is unacceptable for a player in his role.

I don't know when Mclellan is going to get it in his head that Nuge isn't capable of driving a 2nd line, this has been obvious to most of us for a couple of years now. Either move Drai to the 2nd line and put Nuge on Drai's wing or vice versa or move Drai to the 2nd line and have Nuge center a soft minutes 3rd line. No more of this stacking the top line and depending on Nuge for secondary offense, enough already.

I can't handle another season of watching a one line team. They have the personnel to ice 2 scoring lines, just do it. If McDavid isn't good enough to score without Drai and Drai isn't good enough to drive his own line then why pay them as franchise players if you're just going to throw them together on one line and leave the 2nd line devoid of any offense?

 

[Asiaoil]

But the poster he responded to was crying that all Nuge ever does it take pointless shots from the outside. Which isnt true.

Don't twist my words to suit your narrative. I never said ALL Nuge does is take those type of shots. I simply said he takes too many of them and he does not attack the net aggressively enough. He's a soft peripheral player for the most part and there is not much of an argument to the contrary. But as I said in TC, he's dead man walking on this team given his salary, and we will get little for him in trade. Eberle's performance this year doesn't help. Every player need to be aggressive, not just the bruisers, and RNH has lost most of the limited aggressiveness he had when he was younger. Frankly he plays like he's trying to not get hurt and collect his checks, his choice, it's a violent game that can leave permanent scars. I get it but he's not being paid to be careful. He should just take up golf.

 

[Soundwave]

RNH's Halloween costume

Bonus one for Lucic

 

[nabob]

Don't twist my words to suit your narrative. I never said ALL Nuge does is take those type of shots. I simply said he takes too many of them and he does not attack the net aggressively enough. He's a soft peripheral player for the most part and there is not much of an argument to the contrary. But as I said in TC, he's dead man walking on this team given his salary, and we will get little for him in trade. Eberle's performance this year doesn't help. Every player need to be aggressive, not just the bruisers, and RNH has lost most of the limited aggressiveness he had when he was younger. Frankly he plays like he's trying to not get hurt and collect his checks, his choice, it's a violent game that can leave permanent scars. I get it but he's not being paid to be careful. He should just take up golf.

Eberle's crap play this year has no impact on Nuge's value. Hilarious that you're trying to use Eberle's poor play as a negative on Nuge even.

I didn't put any words in your mouth your entire post is full of more of the same words. We get it, you don't like the player and had him written off before the season started, you even say so in your post that he was a dead man walking before TC.

 

[Fourier]

We I guess you can spin it that way but I see only 2 shots from the killing floor. Fact is in the back half of the 3rd period yesterday he came over the blue line and lofted another useless shot from the middle of nowhere into the goalie that simply turned over possession instead of attacking or creating in a 1-1 game. Sometime what we see is reality. The guy completely lacks aggressiveness and any willingness to put himself in harms way to score. Not my favorite player type and the Oilers top 6 used to be infested with these guys (Eberle, RNH, Gagner etc etc).

Every player in the top 6 needs (McDavid included) needs to be willing to pay the price to score, and when the Oilers fall into their bad old habits of being a soft rush team, they lose. When they are willing to pay the price physically and crash crash the net like in the playoffs, they win. Now it's early days of the season, but they are not getting any soft games from teams thinking they will be an easy win, so they better get used to playing at the high level expected of a contender.

This is the problem I have with this debate. We have a player that has become completely polarizing and we are at the point where 95% of the debate is simply people stating positions of complete intransigence often based on the observational bias that we all have. In this case the incident you are talking about happened 41 seconds into a shift late in a tied game. (Nuge by the way averages about 43 seconds per shift). And you have a coach that preaches shift discipline. So for me, a supporter, who even admittedly does not like "safe", I see this as the right play intended to buy time for a shift change. For you it compels you to write...

Every game I see RNH taking useless easy shots from places that will never produce goals instead of being creative or attacking the net. It's so common that we should create a new stat for these useless shots that do nothing but create in a change in possession. Call it the "RNH".

This statement is demonstratively false but that does not matter. In fact, pointing out that it is false simply inflames the debate. We can see this by the quick reaction to my post which was a simple statement of fact as opposed to some sort of assertion that the data proves he has played great.

 

[Asiaoil]

This is the problem I have with this debate. We have a player that has become completely polarizing and we are at the point where 95% of the debate is simply people stating positions of complete intransigence often based on the observational bias that we all have. In this case the incident you are talking about happened 41 seconds into a shift late in a tied game. (Nuge by the way averages about 43 seconds per shift). And you have a coach that preaches shift discipline. So for me, a supporter, who even admittedly does not like "safe", I see this as the right play intended to buy time for a shift change. For you it compels you to write...

This statement is demonstratively false but that does not matter. In fact, pointing out that it is false simply inflames the debate. We can see this by the quick reaction to my post which was a simple statement of fact as opposed to some sort of assertion that the data proves he has played great.

No it's not demonstrably false as your original post was playing with facts by suggesting that a center taking most of his shots blow the faceoff circles is somehow notable. It's not. As for the specific shot I was talking about. Larsson is behind the net waiting for the RNH line to come out on the ice at 4:10 and moves the puck up ice at 4:06. The shot in question happens at 3:34. RNH isn't tired or at the end of a long shift. He stayed out for almost 20 seconds after that shot and there was no danger of an odd man rush the other way as only Lucic was deep in the offensive zone. There was in no rush to change. He skates off at 3:20 before the whistle blows at 3:09. He made a weak play when he could have tried a strong one and he does it regularly. You are also denigrating rich contextual information (the flow of game) when it doesn't fit your narrative. Sure it's one play but it's the kind of play that defines this player. Like Eberle, RNH simply does not compete hard enough to be a difference maker and this isn't news to anyone who has watched him over his career.

At best maybe the fans ripping RNH constantly will force him to get his junk together and compete like Eberle did in the 2nd half of last year. Even though I don't like that style of player (soft overpaid top 6 types who think the hard parts of the game are below them and only for bottom 6 grunts) I praised Ebs pretty consistently the final 40 games of last season for his improved commitment. He was obviously trying. But then he totally bombed in the playoffs when he was required to take that effort and commitment to another level. The trade market will make it's judgement on RNH soon enough and it will likely be harsh. People will then line up to blame Chiarelli, nasty fans, or sun spots for the crappy return. But there will only be one person to blame and that's RNH who never had anywhere near the passion and commitment necessary to make a difference or be a leader.

 

[Fourier]

No it's not demonstrably false as your original post was playing with facts by suggesting that a center taking most of his shots blow the faceoff circles is somehow notable. It's not. As for the specific shot I was talking about. Larsson is behind the net waiting for the RNH line to come out on the ice at 4:10 and moves the puck up ice at 4:06. The shot in question happens at 3:34. RNH isn't tired or at the end of a long shift. He stayed out for almost 20 seconds after that shot and there was no danger of an odd man rush the other way as only Lucic was deep in the offensive zone. There was in no rush to change. He skates off at 3:20 before the whistle blows at 3:09. He made a weak play when he could have tried a strong one and he does it regularly. You are also denigrating rich contextual information (the flow of game) when it doesn't fit your narrative. Sure it's one play but it's the kind of play that defines this player. Like Eberle, RNH simply does not compete hard enough to be a difference maker and this isn't news to anyone who has watched him over his career.

At best maybe the fans ripping RNH constantly will force him to get his junk together and compete like Eberle did in the 2nd half of last year. Even though I don't like that style of player (soft overpaid top 6 types who think the hard parts of the game are below them and only for bottom 6 grunts) I praised Ebs pretty consistently the final 40 games of last season for his improved commitment. He was obviously trying. But then he totally bombed in the playoffs when he was required to take that effort and commitment to another level. The trade market will make it's judgement on RNH soon enough and it will likely be harsh. People will then line up to blame Chiarelli, nasty fans, or sun spots for the crappy return. But there will only be one person to blame and that's RNH who never had anywhere near the passion and commitment necessary to make a difference or be a leader.

Lets look at the claim I called demonstrably false:

Every game I see RNH taking useless easy shots from places that will never produce goals

Parse the sentence. He has taken a grand total of 2 shots the whole year from a place that is unlikely to produce goals. So we can debate all you want about the significance of this one play that you quote but let's be honest here. What you said is literally demonstratively false.

This thread turns on a dime. Go back a few pages and everyone is praising how much more he is doing this year than in recent years deservedly or not. Two games later his detractors are out in full force blaming him for goals he may or may not have had anything to do with and a single shot on goal turns into a need for a brand new stat to measure something that possibly did not even happen. This is the narrative of the debate as it is for every player who becomes the whippingboy du jeur.

 

[nabob]

Lets look at the claim I called demonstrably false:

Every game I see RNH taking useless easy shots from places that will never produce goals

Parse the sentence. He has taken a grand total of 2 shots the whole year from a place that is unlikely to produce goals. So we can debate all you want about the significance of this one play that you quote but let's be honest here. What you said is literally demonstratively false.

This thread turns on a dime. Go back a few pages and everyone is praising how much more he is doing this year than in recent years deservedly or not. Two games later his detractors are out in full force blaming him for goals he may or may not have had anything to do with and a single shot on goal turns into a need for a brand new stat to measure something that possibly did not even happen. This is the narrative of the debate as it is for every player who becomes the whippigboy du jeur.

/thread

Team loses and fans look for someone to blame. Fans with an obvious bias against certain players always look for reasons to blame that player whether it be Nuge, Nurse or Gryba most often

 

[CupofOil]

I don't get how anybody can defend Nuge right now.

What has been the biggest problem for the Oilers the last season plus?
Secondary scoring and which is the line most responsible for supplying secondary scoring? The 2nd line a.k.a. Nuge line.

He had 43 points last year with some non-existent even strength production most of the season and he has 1 even strength point in 7 games this season. You can throw out all the stats about where he gets his shots off from and how snakebitten he continues to be for a couple of years now but he doesn't produce enough offense and to be quite honest, his lines don't really present much offensive threat at all at even strength so it's not like they are getting tons of chances but they just aren't going in. I'm sure the opposition breathes a big sigh of relief when the Nuge line is on the ice because they know it won't take much effort to stifle them.

Quite honestly, this looks like one of the worst teams in the league at creating offense when McDavid isn't on the ice. I admit that I get fooled sometimes when Nuge puts together a couple of really good games when he's pushing the pace and being aggressive but then he resorts back to his disappearing act for long stretches again. At what point are we going to call a spade a spade like we did with Gagner?
FTR, I was one of his biggest supporters for years but the last 2-3 seasons have really soured me on him and at this point, I don't know how Chia is going to get much value for him.

Meanwhile, Desharnis has 2 goals and 4 points in 9 games at even strength. Would be the 2nd highest scoring forward on the Oilers right now. Small sample size and all but embarrassing all the same.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Meanwhile, in the bottom six...

 

[nabob]

Meanwhile, in the bottom six...

still looking for them as they havent shown up yet this year

 

[Canovin]

If RNH can become a driver on his own line and do it on a consistent basis then it's worth keeping him

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

still looking for them as they havent shown up yet this year

Where's playoffs Kassian? Is this Kassian we're seeing here for 3 more years?

 

[McOilers97]

/thread

Team loses and fans look for someone to blame. Fans with an obvious bias against certain players always look for reasons to blame that player whether it be Nuge, Nurse or Gryba most often

And in RNH's case, don't you think it's reasonable for him to be one of the guys on top of peoples' shit list? I don't hate on players for no reason; if they consistently disappoint me, especially when they are one of the team's most important players, then I'll let that be known. The bottom 6 needs to be better too, but the expectations for our #4C, #3RW etc are understandably lower than they are for the #2C. RNH is supposed to be a guy that can make a difference on this team. While I can acknowledge that his 2-way play is much improved (still over-rated, but improved), on most nights he doesn't really impact the game positively or negatively. Doesn't generate many scoring chances, sometimes gets a cycle going that doesn't amount to much, and once every 10 games he'll do something that makes him look like a real #1 overall pick. When's the last time that RNH took over a game offensively and was the reason that we won? If McDavid isn't "on", then I have little faith that our #2C can pick up the slack.

 

[nabob]

And in RNH's case, don't you think it's reasonable for him to be one of the guys on top of peoples' **** list? I don't hate on players for no reason; if they consistently disappoint me, especially when they are one of the team's most important players, then I'll let that be known. The bottom 6 needs to be better too, but the expectations for our #4C, #3RW etc are understandably lower than they are for the #2C. RNH is supposed to be a guy that can make a difference on this team. While I can acknowledge that his 2-way play is much improved (still over-rated, but improved), on most nights he doesn't really impact the game positively or negatively. Doesn't generate many scoring chances, sometimes gets a cycle going that doesn't amount to much, and once every 10 games he'll do something that makes him look like a real #1 overall pick. When's the last time that RNH took over a game offensively and was the reason that we won? If McDavid isn't "on", then I have little faith that our #2C can pick up the slack.

Is your issue with his actual play or just his production compared to other #1 overall picks?

 

[Canovin]

Is your issue with his actual play or just his production compared to other #1 overall picks?

His play relative to his pay

 

[CupofOil]

Is your issue with his actual play or just his production compared to other #1 overall picks?

I would assume both. Do you consider his production the last few seasons to be acceptable relative to role? 43 points last season, zero goals in 13 playoff games, 1 even strength point in 7 games this year.
It's not like he's providing shut down defense to compensate for the modest offensive production. Does it look to you like his line outplays the opposition consistently and is just snakebitten?

I know I'm repeating myself and I apologize if it annoys people but I'm not seeing any valid defense of his play the last 2 seasons. What's his value to the team in a 2nd line role, what are the above average skills?