RW Patrik Laine - Tappara, Liiga (2016 Draft) III

[kunekune]

Source?

Yeah, made me laugh also

SHL being 2 times tougher than FEL.

I mean come, please think carefully before posting anything


Edit: found the source, in the same source OHL is marked as harder league as Liiga
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...hygvDJ5xvXfQZyjKIAjqyIKTk/edit#gid=2017733463

I think we can all agree NHLe is pretty useless convertor that needs some serious work with their numbers

 

[93LEAFS]

One? Medicore Liiga players are always top players in AHL. It is not defintely "one". You literally cant find players, that were top 6 in Liiga but wernt in the AHL.There isn't. Liiga is most definitely on par and probably better than the AHL, your ranking is way off.

Basic players like Pakarinen tend to lit it up in the AHL. Vatman and Pulkkinen owned AHL more than Liiga as raw kids.

Pulkkinen was a almost at ppg at 19 in SM-Liiga, he's far from a great examples. And most studies show scoring in the AHL is more transferable than Liiga to the NHL. Look at Gagnon, McIntyre, Rau, and Josh Green.

 

[Keeptdos]

Pulkkinen was a almost at ppg at 19 in SM-Liiga, he's far from a great examples. And most studies show scoring in the AHL is more transferable than Liiga to the NHL. Look at Gagnon, McIntyre, Rau, and Josh Green.

Yeah it more than likely is more transferable but that doesn't make it better.

 

[QnebO]

Pulkkinen was a almost at ppg at 19 in SM-Liiga, he's far from a great examples. And most studies show scoring in the AHL is more transferable than Liiga to the NHL. Look at Gagnon, McIntyre, Rau, and Josh Green.

True, but Pulks dominated the AHL. Well he developed, but if some one thinks AHL is clearly better..

 

[kunekune]

Pulkkinen was a almost at ppg at 19 in SM-Liiga, he's far from a great examples. And most studies show scoring in the AHL is more transferable than Liiga to the NHL. Look at Gagnon, McIntyre, Rau, and Josh Green.

What studies? NHLe that claims OHL being harder league than Liiga?

Those 4 names you mentioned have done good in Liiga because they all play in lesser teams in 1st line and 1st pp. Green was last year playing in better team and for this season went to the bottom ranked team got into 1st line and doubled his point total. It took all these guy several years to crack into

Tho there are more cases that have come from AHL to Liiga and have not done so good. For example Corey Locke who won the point throphy in AHL and was like 0,3 ppg in liiga.

From the most recent examples Donskoi went from 0,81 PPG (liiga) to 0,48(NHL), Rantanen went from 0,5ppg(Liiga) to 1,2 PPG(AHL) and Kemppainen from 0,54ppg(liiga) to 0,12 ppg(NHL).

 

[QnebO]

AHL teams should come to play in the Europe to see. Liiga teams regullary play well against NHL teams. Jokerit - Ducks went into OT and Tappara won the Panthers last time teams were in Finland. These games don't tell you much, but it tells a) Liiga level is really solid. NHL teams also had losses against SHL teams. That was the same year, after which NHL never came back.. doesn't surprise, it isn't best marketing if teams can't clearly win the games.

b) AHL teams would get beaten here. Well it shows in players transfers, but the games would just show it more clearly. I would like to see it and I would pay to see it.

I remember when AHL team played in the spengler cup when I watched it (as Jokerit plaed there, too). That was far from showing very high level, the AHL crew got blown out.

 

[BB88]

Liiga is a worse league than AHL. I don't think using one player who it worked for as an example is a good idea.

Pasta and Nylander surived and have dominated in the AHL, but Pulju who is better prospect and 40lbs heavier couldn't play there?
Especially when there's the whole offseason still ahead for development.

 

[Grind]

at the time of the post i believe the argument was quite literally:

"it's worse"

"no it's not, it's better"

forgive me for attempting to inject research/objective information into the high level of debate and exchange of ideas that had occurred prior.

if you want the numbers on the conversions you can google them. there everywhere. the equation is extremely simple and does what it attempts to(tells you on average how many points a player carries over season to season when transitioning leagues).

obviously there's layers to it, why some are good, why some are bad, etc.

it MAY be better, but i have not researched scoring from FEL -> AHL though it would be worth looking into (to be candid i dislike the conversions available for SHL and FEL players as though they are what they are, they don't "feel" right, though from what i know most previous research has confirmed them through using FEL -> AHL -NHL conversions to verify.)

 

[QnebO]

Laine and Pulju wouldn't make it in the AHL, HAHAHAH ok this gets too fun, time to sleep.

Level of Liiga is the exact reason why these guys have been projected to go as high as they have without dominating the point totals in the league. If some plug thinks they wouldn't make it in the AHL top 9, it is their shame. Opinions are always allowed, but that is just stupid. It's like some people claiming the KHL is better than the NHL few years ago.

 

[kunekune]

at the time of the post i believe the argument was quite literally:

"it's worse"

"no it's not, it's better"

forgive me for attempting to inject research/objective information into the high level of debate and exchange of ideas that had occurred prior.

if you want the numbers on the conversions you can google them. there everywhere. the equation is extremely simple and does what it attempts to(tells you on average how many points a player carries over season to season when transitioning leagues).

obviously there's layers to it, why some are good, why some are bad, etc.

it MAY be better, but i have not researched scoring from FEL -> AHL though it would be worth looking into (to be candid i dislike the conversions available for SHL and FEL players as though they are what they are, they don't "feel" right, though from what i know most previous research has confirmed them through using FEL -> AHL -NHL conversions to verify.)

I saw the NHLe conversion table. It claims Ontario Hockey League, which is a kids league, being harder than Liiga so its not something to be taken with any seriousness.

 

[Grind]

What studies? NHLe that claims OHL being harder league than Liiga?

Those 4 names you mentioned have done good in Liiga because they all play in lesser teams in 1st line and 1st pp. Green was last year playing in better team and for this season went to the bottom ranked team got into 1st line and doubled his point total. It took all these guy several years to crack into

Tho there are more cases that have come from AHL to Liiga and have not done so good. For example Corey Locke who won the point throphy in AHL and was like 0,3 ppg in liiga.

From the most recent examples Donskoi went from 0,81 PPG (liiga) to 0,48(NHL), Rantanen went from 0,5ppg(Liiga) to 1,2 PPG(AHL) and Kemppainen from 0,54ppg(liiga) to 0,12 ppg(NHL).

Jesus christ, NHLE is not some entity that claims anything, it's a god damn equation.

It is quite literally the average point conversion a player carries when transitioning from one league to another. All it tells you is what happened on average.

there's no agenda, or "claim". Just that historically a player who scores 30 points in the LIIGA will score 10 points in the NHL if he plays their the next season.

The reasoning as to why it's so low is likely due to a large contingent of 24-28 yearold liiga players that came over to the NHL as more mature/established players that are good enough to play bottom 6 roles but not good enough to be major contributors, as opposed to leagues like the OHL/QMJHL/AHL where a "bottom six" caliber player is less likely to stick with the NHL club then he is to get sent down.

comparing it's to the OHL is foolish because, yes, one of them is a kids league. the AHL on the other hand is a mans league so you can kind of infer that there will be less differences in playstyle and player transition.

 

[kunekune]

Jesus christ, NHLE is not some entity that claims anything, it's a god damn equation.

It is quite literally the average point conversion a player carries when transitioning from one league to another. All it tells you is what happened on average.

there's no agenda, or "claim". Just that historically a player who scores 30 points in the LIIGA will score 10 points in the NHL if he plays their the next season.

The reasoning as to why it's so low is likely due to a large contingent of 24-28 yearold liiga players that came over to the NHL as more mature/established players that are good enough to play bottom 6 roles but not good enough to be major contributors, as opposed to leagues like the OHL/QMJHL/AHL where a "bottom six" caliber player is less likely to stick with the NHL club then he is to get sent down.

Yeah that is the reason. 11 players used as sample from Liiga, 764 players from AHL. So comparing Liiga and AHL with this conversion is not very realible don't you agree.

If someone wonders how the kids would do in AHL, if they ever get send there, Rantanen transformed from 0,5 PPG player in Liiga to 1,2 PPG in AHL in one summer.

 

[93LEAFS]

What studies? NHLe that claims OHL being harder league than Liiga?

Those 4 names you mentioned have done good in Liiga because they all play in lesser teams in 1st line and 1st pp. Green was last year playing in better team and for this season went to the bottom ranked team got into 1st line and doubled his point total. It took all these guy several years to crack into

Tho there are more cases that have come from AHL to Liiga and have not done so good. For example Corey Locke who won the point throphy in AHL and was like 0,3 ppg in liiga.

From the most recent examples Donskoi went from 0,81 PPG (liiga) to 0,48(NHL), Rantanen went from 0,5ppg(Liiga) to 1,2 PPG(AHL) and Kemppainen from 0,54ppg(liiga) to 0,12 ppg(NHL).

You do realize if you look at the OHL, it includes guys like Domi, and McDavid, who are both having strong rookie years. And your reasoning for my examples works for AHL guys to, in many cases they are younger so natural improvement is likely and they are given prominent roles for development reasons. NHLe is far from perfect, but its better than just randomly picking examples which is what your doing. It makes an effort to factor in all recent players who have switched leagues.

 

[kunekune]

You do realize if you look at the OHL, it includes guys like Domi, and McDavid, who are both having strong rookie years. And your reasoning for my examples works for AHL guys to, in many cases they are younger so natural improvement is likely and they are given prominent roles for development reasons. NHLe is far from perfect, but its better than just randomly picking examples which is what your doing. It makes an effort to factor in all recent players who have switched leagues.

Latest update to it is from 2013 so players like Domi and McDavid are not included in those numbers.

And like i said it latest update uses 11 players as sample size from Liiga and 764 from AHL.

 

[Grind]

Yeah that is the reason. 11 players used as sample from Liiga, 764 players from AHL. So comparing Liiga and AHL with this conversion is not very realible don't you agree.

If someone wonders how the kids would do in AHL, if they ever get send there, Rantanen transformed from 0,5 PPG player in Liiga to 1,2 PPG in AHL in one summer.

and I would wager a dramatic amount of that is A)player progression over the year and B) Player use.

from my understanding very VERY few of the draft eligibles and 18 yearold players get the opportunity to play big minutes in the pro leagues.

I'd also like to clarify that i do not agree with the post that the two finns would struggle in the AHL at all. Simply that "it's worse" "no it's better" isn't very enlightening and there's evidence to show it may not be that close.

to expand the sample, the thing to do would be to follow liiga players to AHL and use what's called "the wilson method" and see if it still ballparks.

we should also keep in mind, no offense to finland, but there has not been a stampede of high calibre scorers coming out of there over the last 10 years. It seems to be maybe turning a corner right now with Barkov, Raantanena nd these 2, but it's been a bit dire for the last decade has it not?

 

[93LEAFS]

Latest update to it is from 2013 so players like Domi and McDavid are not included in those numbers.

And like i said it latest update uses 11 players as sample size from Liiga and 764 from AHL.

No, its from November 2015, I have the 2013 numbers infront of me from the 2013 abstract and they are different. And that google doc has been updated in the last 14 hours.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pasta and Nylander surived and have dominated in the AHL, but Pulju who is better prospect and 40lbs heavier couldn't play there?
Especially when there's the whole offseason still ahead for development.

Right now, I don't think he'd dominate the AHL. He's 7th among forwards on his Liiga team in PPG for forwards, so he's really only a middle six player right now in Liiga.

What makes you think he'd be more than that in a better league? He also has a much more raw skill-set than Laine.

 

[BB88]

Right now, I don't think he'd dominate the AHL. He's 7th among forwards on his Liiga team in PPG for forwards, so he's really only a middle six player right now in Liiga.

What makes you think he'd be more than that in a better league? He also has a much more raw skill-set than Laine.

Nylander had 7 points in his draft year in SHL, Pasta had 0, played zero games at the SHL, they both were nowhere near the size Pulju is.

1 offseason can have a huge difference for these guys game and how they do against men, just add Aho and Rantanen to that previous list, look at what these 4 did in their draft year and what they did the year after.

Then you should watch how Pulju developed throughout the year, he was nowhere near the player on the 2nd half he was on the 1st, in 1st he was stuggling, he was fighting with coordination issues and condifence was down, and now on the 2nd half he was one of Karpats biggest offensive threats, and has played few games on the 1st line in the playoffs against the best Liiga can offer, Aho and Pulju have been the guys that Tappara keeps an eye on, you can see in games how they try to block them in the offensive zone.
Karpat is a deep team, Pulju averaged just 15mins per game on regular season, it's not just that easy to look at stats blindy.

Same goes for Laine, he's developed throughout the year and if healthy I'm expecting big improvements in the offseason and him being able to rock the NA ice.

 

[QnebO]

Right now, I don't think he'd dominate the AHL. He's 7th among forwards on his Liiga team in PPG for forwards, so he's really only a middle six player right now in Liiga.

What makes you think he'd be more than that in a better league? He also has a much more raw skill-set than Laine.

AHL is simply not better league. Exactly similar transition was seen last summer, when Rantane jumped from Liiga to AHL.
Rantanen ppg:

Liiga 0,5
AHL 1,2

He could play there, because he would be going to lower level league.

 

[Ippenator]

AHL is simply not better league. Exactly similar transition was seen last summer, when Rantane jumped from Liiga to AHL.
Rantanen ppg:

Liiga 0,5
AHL 1,2

He could play there, because he would be going to lower level league.

Yes, this exactly shows that Pulju should be able to dominate in AHL with his great skating and size, even his hockey IQ is on that level already that I believe he should manage a lot better in AHL than in FEL. I see him at the moment as a relatively same caliber player as Rantanen, although Pulju is already slightly better, and he has also way bigger upside.

 

[psycho_dad*]

As seen in this, This kind of physical, skill, and defensive game performance and dominance @ 17 in Liiga playoff stage, probably never seen before. Hardly even seperately those, but all in one.

Barkov.

But outside of that, nobody.

 

[kunekune]

and I would wager a dramatic amount of that is A)player progression over the year and B) Player use.

from my understanding very VERY few of the draft eligibles and 18 yearold players get the opportunity to play big minutes in the pro leagues.

I'd also like to clarify that i do not agree with the post that the two finns would struggle in the AHL at all. Simply that "it's worse" "no it's better" isn't very enlightening and there's evidence to show it may not be that close.

to expand the sample, the thing to do would be to follow liiga players to AHL and use what's called "the wilson method" and see if it still ballparks.

we should also keep in mind, no offense to finland, but there has not been a stampede of high calibre scorers coming out of there over the last 10 years. It seems to be maybe turning a corner right now with Barkov, Raantanena nd these 2, but it's been a bit dire for the last decade has it not?

This new generation doesn't affect FEL quality that much because they only play their youth there and move pre-prime to NA and play their prime there.

All I'm saying its not reasonable to use NHLe as a way to compare leagues because it says things like OHL and NLA are better leagues than FEL. Whatever the reasons are it tells that they have SERIOUS problems with their math or sample size. It also doesn't tell anything about average player.

 

[psycho_dad*]

No they wouldn't.

Oh hell yeah they would

 

[kunekune]

Oh hell yeah they would

I also don't see any chance AHL winner would win FEL winner in 7 game matchup.

The odds definitely would be in FEL side.

 

[Grind]

This new generation doesn't affect FEL quality that much because they only play their youth there and move pre-prime to NA and play their prime there.

All I'm saying its not reasonable to use NHLe as a way to compare leagues because it says things like OHL and NLA are better leagues than FEL. Whatever the reasons are it tells that they have SERIOUS problems with their math or sample size. It also doesn't tell anything about average player.

it tells you at least as much as a sample of 1 player transitioning 1 time, at a time when players typically go through their largest spurt of growth (in terms of players performance/development).

Joel Armia scored 33 points in 47 games int he Fel. he then scored 27 points in 54 AHL games.

Teravainen scored less in the AHL then he did the year prior in the Fel.

Pokka scored less in the Ahl then he did the year prior in the FEL.

Esa Lindell scored less in the Ahl then he did the year prior in the FEL.

Mikko Vainonen score almost identically in the FEL as he did in the ECHL.

NHLE may not be a great barometer. Guess what? Neither is Miko Raantanen.

I have already explained why the OHL example is invalid. As for NLA? I honestly have no idea. Maybe it is a better league? Maybe it isn't?