Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2017-18

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Daximus

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The return for Trouba is not likely to be anything we are overly happy with unless we get lucky. I have always said teams dealing from a position of weakness often don't come out of a trade as the winner. We got lucky with Kane. We were dealing from a point of weakness but managed to be in the position that a team wanted to tank for McDavid and Kane was out for the season. So they gave up a 1st, two prospects, Stafford and downgraded on defence to achieve that. Had Kane not been out for the rest of the season I wonder if Buffalo still makes that deal. Unlikely given they wanted to outright tank and having Kane on the roster would have made that harder to do. The timing couldn't have been any better for us.

Trouba in some sort of deal for Karlsson could make sense as both teams are at a disadvantage trading them to pretty much any other team. No team is likely to give us a straight across Dman trade for Trouba. And Trouba does hold an advantage in the fact that he could say he will not sign a long term deal with the team we would trade him too. A deal in the summer makes more sense as we could talk to EK about an extension then and Ottawa could talk to Trouba about an extension. The reason I see Ottawa as being somewhat favourable to Trouba is he will be the clear cut 1D on the ride side in Ottawa, he is closer to his family in Michigan and will visit Detroit more often during the season. He will also play Tampa and Florida in their barn more as well so he'd be in Florida more often. Otherwise I think any deal for Trouba is likely only going to net us futures. We also take the risk of someone offer sheeting Trouba in the summer but based on his demands likely at minimum $6 mil a season I can't see him signing as we would probably match it. It's likely to be in the neighborhood of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder for the 2019 draft if we don't match. There is also the option of arbitration but that gets messy and everyone likely wants to avoid that.

At this point I don't see many options outside of Karlsson for a Trouba trade that doesn't involve futures or forwards. And unlikely to be a top 6 Center from anyone.
 

Daximus

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The Jets don't need EK's next contract...

Hard to say what that will be. All we know is he said he wants to get paid what he's worth. He hasn't thrown out a dollar amount. Doughty said he thinks both of them should make more than Subban. Maybe we can get EK signed at a $9.5 mil cap hit? Hard to say and not worth trading for him until the summer when you can negotiate with him. It likely means moving on from Buff though but that is fine by me. Karlsson is a massive upgrade over Buff and a full 5 years younger. That likely increases our window big time. If we can get EK for $2-3 mil more on a 8 year contract, that is a massive upgrade for us. With the cap going up I see no reason we can't keep EK and all of our young guns either if we move Buff. I'm pretty sure we could get a pretty good return for Buff as well.

Imagine a Karlsson run PP with Laine. We'd be unstoppable.
 
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Hunter368

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Hard to say what that will be. All we know is he said he wants to get paid what he's worth. He hasn't thrown out a dollar amount. Doughty said he thinks both of them should make more than Subban. Maybe we can get EK signed at a $9.5 mil cap hit? Hard to say and not worth trading for him until the summer when you can negotiate with him. It likely means moving on from Buff though but that is fine by me. Karlsson is a massive upgrade over Buff and a full 5 years younger. That likely increases our window big time. If we can get EK for $2-3 mil more on a 8 year contract, that is a massive upgrade for us. With the cap going up I see no reason we can't keep EK and all of our young guns either if we move Buff. I'm pretty sure we could get a pretty good return for Buff as well.

Imagine a Karlsson run PP with Laine. We'd be unstoppable.

9.5 million? Are you serious after he latest comments? Think 11-13 million for EK per year.
 

Aavco Cup

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Ottawa has said they aren't trading Karlsson.

Pundits have speculated that if they do trade Karlsson it would not happen until the offseason. After July 1
 

Daximus

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9.5 million? Are you serious after he latest comments? Think 11-13 million for EK per year.

Literally all he's said is he wants fair market value. Hard to say what he thinks that is. It's all the pundits who have been shooting out 13 million a season. Plus there is the matter of dollar amount vs cap hit. Maybe it's front loaded with a high value and declines as he ages putting him in the $9.5 range cap hit wise. He may also be convinced to take a slightly less to play for a team loaded with talent like us. I think all the guy really wants is a team willing to build around him. We already have the pieces in place. Only reason he wants to bend Ottawa over is because they refuse to do so.

Ottawa has said they aren't trading Karlsson.

Pundits have speculated that if they do trade Karlsson it would not happen until the offseason. After July 1

Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. No way I'd trade for 1.5 years of EK and I find it hard to believe any other team would offer good value for that either. Karlsson is worth more when a team can negotiate with him in the summer. Can't see Melnyk ponying up to keep EK/
 

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Can't see Melnyk ponying up to keep EK/

Dorian said on the weekend they hope Karlsson is a Senator for the next ten years, implying an 8 year extension coming. He said he has no intention of trading him.
 

Daximus

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Dorian said on the weekend they hope Karlsson is a Senator for the next ten years, implying an 8 year extension coming. He said he has no intention of trading him.

Well of course teams say that kind of stuff all the time. I'll believe it when I see it. The truth is the Sens are on a budget and EK is likely to break that budget. Until the time an extension is announced. Speculate away!!!
 

ps241

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Sens are in an odd spot. The two really bad contracts on their books are Bobby Ryan for the next 5 seasons at $7.25 million and Neon Dion for $7.0 million for the next 4 seasons. They will have to deal with Karlsson, Stone, and Ceci this off season so it should be interesting. On the one had the Cap appears to be going up quite a bit so that should help but on the flip side there is the Melnyk factor in play.

This is all going to come down to Erik though and what he wants. I believe the Sens will pay him as much as anyone else but where is he going to want to play?
 

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Well of course teams say that kind of stuff all the time. I'll believe it when I see it. The truth is the Sens are on a budget and EK is likely to break that budget. Until the time an extension is announced. Speculate away!!!

OK I'll speculate that they will want to sign Karlsson to be the face of the Reborn Quebec Nordiques
 

tbcwpg

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Not sure we could afford karlsson without making some other big moves. Laine needs a new deal after next season.
 

Daximus

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Not sure we could afford karlsson without making some other big moves. Laine needs a new deal after next season.

With the expected rise in cap we could likely afford him. We'd have an expensive D so it would be wise to move Buff.
 

Whileee

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Dorian said on the weekend they hope Karlsson is a Senator for the next ten years, implying an 8 year extension coming. He said he has no intention of trading him.
Good. Let them sign him and then decide whether it's worth trading for him.
 

Daximus

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My prediction assumes that deal falls apart

Would be interesting. Sens fans would be livid. Probably checks a few boxes on the NHL's radar in limiting Canadian teams. Weber, Subban and Burns contracts are like this. Webers is heavily loaded right now. Subban's is loaded in the middle. Burns is front loaded.
 
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Hunter368

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Literally all he's said is he wants fair market value. Hard to say what he thinks that is. It's all the pundits who have been shooting out 13 million a season. Plus there is the matter of dollar amount vs cap hit. Maybe it's front loaded with a high value and declines as he ages putting him in the $9.5 range cap hit wise. He may also be convinced to take a slightly less to play for a team loaded with talent like us. I think all the guy really wants is a team willing to build around him. We already have the pieces in place. Only reason he wants to bend Ottawa over is because they refuse to do so.



Yeah I mentioned that in my post above. No way I'd trade for 1.5 years of EK and I find it hard to believe any other team would offer good value for that either. Karlsson is worth more when a team can negotiate with him in the summer. Can't see Melnyk ponying up to keep EK/

Until he’s signed to a new at a reasonable rate 9.5 million according to you trading anything for him of significant value is crazy talk. Laine for him now is pure crazy talk.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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9.5 million? Are you serious after he latest comments? Think 11-13 million for EK per year.

Karlsson's comments are being blown wayyyyy out of proportion - unless he has said something more recently that I have missed. All he said was that he wasn't going to give Melnyk a discount. Like Doughty, he wants full market value. The highest cap hit for a Dman right now is 9 mil for Subban so he wants more than 9. That does not imply 12. Brent Burns new contract kicked in just after he won the Norris, AAV of 8. Buff is 5th at 7.6.
 

Daximus

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Until he’s signed to a new at a reasonable rate 9.5 million according to you trading anything for him of significant value is crazy talk. Laine for him now is pure crazy talk.

I never said anything about Laine. It's Trouba or nothing. No team in the league is trading even remotely decent value for 1.5 years of EK I'd imagine. No deal will be done until the summer when perspective suitors can negotiate with EK's camp to know exactly what he's after.
 

Daximus

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Karlsson's comments are being blown wayyyyy out of proportion - unless he has said something more recently that I have missed. All he said was that he wasn't going to give Melnyk a discount. Like Doughty, he wants full market value. The highest cap hit for a Dman right now is 9 mil for Subban so he wants more than 9. That does not imply 12. Brent Burns new contract kicked in just after he won the Norris, AAV of 8. Buff is 5th at 7.6.

I don't think the cap hit matters as much as the dollar amount. Karlsson wants to get paid right now. You could probably front load a contract up to $13 million or so but keep the cap hit lower by lowering the yearly salary at the back of the contract. He may go for something like that.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I don't think the cap hit matters as much as the dollar amount. Karlsson wants to get paid right now. You could probably front load a contract up to $13 million or so but keep the cap hit lower by lowering the yearly salary at the back of the contract. He may go for something like that.

Of course possible - even likely. But the AAV matters. I think that when players are looking at signing what might well be their last contract, or at least their last big one, the total value has weight. It can also be structured to protect against a lockout simply by paying higher the year before a projected, possible lockout and lower in that year. But all that aside 76-80 million over 8 years is a nice number for a pension plan.

That kind of structure might be less attractive to Melnyk than to many other owners. Just guessing but I suspect that Melnyk becomes less of a tight-wad if an arena deal goes ahead. Fact is that he has already spent very close to the cap. He talks cheaper than he is. He would be smart to just shut up.
 

Daximus

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Of course possible - even likely. But the AAV matters. I think that when players are looking at signing what might well be their last contract, or at least their last big one, the total value has weight. It can also be structured to protect against a lockout simply by paying higher the year before a projected, possible lockout and lower in that year. But all that aside 76-80 million over 8 years is a nice number for a pension plan.

That kind of structure might be less attractive to Melnyk than to many other owners. Just guessing but I suspect that Melnyk becomes less of a tight-wad if an arena deal goes ahead. Fact is that he has already spent very close to the cap. He talks cheaper than he is. He would be smart to just shut up.

That is also another factor at play here. He may be banking on if he threatens to sell EK maybe the fans petition the city to pony up.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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That is also another factor at play here. He may be banking on if he threatens to sell EK maybe the fans petition the city to pony up.

:laugh: That might be quite a gamble. Could have the opposite effect. Fans might take a 'screw Melnyk' attitude. I know that would be foolish on their part but mobs become irrational when angered. :laugh:
 

Daximus

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:laugh: That might be quite a gamble. Could have the opposite effect. Fans might take a 'screw Melnyk' attitude. I know that would be foolish on their part but mobs become irrational when angered. :laugh:

With the way he's throwing around terms like relocation it wouldn't surprise me. The guy may be rich but he doesn't seem all that bright.
 

Huffer

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Not interested in dealing away multiple pieces of our young core for EK. And then having to give him a huge deal on top of that.
 
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