Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread: The draft is less than a week away!! "Don't Threaten Me With A Good Time" Edition

[LaGu]

- Seravalli: 65-35 that Keith retires

edit: did not see that coming...

 

[Mr Sakich]

I know Mrazek was poor last year, but he was pretty solid for 3 years prior and he is only 30. It is possible that he never got comfortable in Toronto for whatever reason.

He has 2 years @ 3.8 mill and Toronto is actively looking to upgrade from Campbell. Would a Kassian for Mrazek deal work? It save the leafs 600k cap spasce and we get a guy who could easily bounce back. The chance of him doing OK are much higher than Smith this time last year so Holland has shown he rolls the dice with goalies

 

[McTonyBrar]

- Seravalli: 65-35 that Keith retires

Like in a good way?

 

[LaGu]

Like in a good way?

Not sure what you mean, my interpretation would be that your question depends on what you think about Keith

65% retires, 35% he continues, that was the meaning.

If you want him not to retire then I guess that is not in a good way!

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I know Mrazek was poor last year, but he was pretty solid for 3 years prior and he is only 30. It is possible that he never got comfortable in Toronto for whatever reason.

He has 2 years @ 3.8 mill and Toronto is actively looking to upgrade from Campbell. Would a Kassian for Mrazek deal work? It save the leafs 600k cap spasce and we get a guy who could easily bounce back. The chance of him doing OK are much higher than Smith this time last year so Holland has shown he rolls the dice with goalies

Why exactly are we helping the Leafs relieve cap and get a goalie upgrade exactly? We should be the ones upgrading goalie not getting a dude who played worse than Smithkonen. If they want to get rid of Mrazek they can hand us their 1st round pick next year.

 

[TheNumber4]

Serevalli speculating that Oilers may try to use Puljujarvi as a trade chip to San Jose to end the settlement with Kane. Roughly 14:55 on the podcast.

Serevalli speculation not great. Seravalli rumor leaking pretty good.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

I know Mrazek was poor last year, but he was pretty solid for 3 years prior and he is only 30. It is possible that he never got comfortable in Toronto for whatever reason.

He has 2 years @ 3.8 mill and Toronto is actively looking to upgrade from Campbell. Would a Kassian for Mrazek deal work? It save the leafs 600k cap spasce and we get a guy who could easily bounce back. The chance of him doing OK are much higher than Smith this time last year so Holland has shown he rolls the dice with goalies

No thanks.

Every time I look up Mrazek he's injured. He can't stay healthy. Ever.

 

[Mr Sakich]

Why exactly are we helping the Leafs relieve cap and get a goalie upgrade exactly? We should be the ones upgrading goalie not getting a dude who played worse than Smithkonen. If they want to get rid of Mrazek they can hand us their 1st round pick next year.

two reasons - we dump Kassian's contract and Holland has a long history with Mrazek who was quite good for a bad Wings team

 

[McTonyBrar]

The divide between Jesse is comical lmfao. One on hand, he's a God. On the other hand, he's garbage lmao

Not sure what you mean, my interpretation would be that your question depends on what you think about Keith

65% retires, 35% he continues, that was the meaning.

If you want him not to retire then I guess that is not in a good way!

Oh no I want him to retire so this is good news lol

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

two reasons - we dump Kassian's contract and Holland has a long history with Mrazek who was quite good for a bad Wings team

Mrazek's last good season was 2016 unless you want to count the 12 game stretch in the lockout year. At that point just take Matt Murray or some shit whose at least had a good year this past half decade.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Gonna be a weak draft in the end I think. None of the players seem to have top end talent.

depends who you talk to--top 5 are all being pumped more than normal

 

[McBooya42]

This might be the best outcome. Locks Kane into a 3 year term. Maybe we get San Jose to keep some cap hit as well.

If they would do that and say take 1.5- 2 million in retention it would be ideal. We'd get the term and $ preferred, Kane and SJ get mutually out of a prolonged mess.

 

[Mr Sakich]

Mrazek's last good season was 2016 unless you want to count the 12 game stretch in the lockout year. At that point just take Matt Murray or some shit whose at least had a good year this past half decade.

his 3 years prior to last year were as the starter for a very successful Carolina team. He had a save percentage of .905, .914 and .923

Those are acceptable but not great numbers and I would hope for better. The rationale is that his net cost to the team is 600k which allows us to address other holes. His long history with Holland leads me to think that this not an impossible scenario

 

[Nunymare]

- Seravalli: 65-35 that Keith retires

edit: did not see that coming...

Stauffer seemed to go out of his way to mention it a lot in his "hypotheticals" on his show yesterday. Seems that there had been more smoke around this over the last week or so.

 

[TheNumber4]

If he did gm that way we would be a heck of a lot better of than we are now.

Zegras on our roster, much less cap space worries due to no dumb smith, keith, kassian contracts.

Beerfish and a few others are annoying doomsayers on this forum. they have the utter audacity to want to win the cup.

We are sitting here with two of the top 5 players in the whole world, and are trying to squander the opportunity.

Or no final four finish. Oilers bounced in 1st round. League continues to see us as a joke. No one wants to come Edmonton this offseason.

Only one thing is known. The team Kenny put together last year was good enough to make the final 4. Any thing other armchair construction may not have made it and may not have even been a realistic construction.

 

[Fourier]

How does that money come out of everyone else's pockets, they already have contracts. Unless you mean via increasing the amount players owe at the end of the year because net salaries are higher, in which case every team that goes near the cap technically costs people money since the projected 50/50 is the midpoint. The amount paid back is by default less than the 3.4M in cash that would come in so it's a net positive for the NHLPA. The reason you fight it is to stop the precedent of the NHL evaporating millions in cap space.

I feel like we are just talking about the same thing regarding escrow at this point and seem to be going in circles. Also, I'm not sure that they typically recevive a refund given the cap situation of all of the teams and the number of very large contracts that are front loaded at any given time.

There is a fixed pot of money that is to be distributed to the players based roughly on 50% share of revenue in a given year. (I say roughly because there are some other factors that come into play that could cause the players final share to deviate slightly from the strict 50% limit.) Money is earned by players based on their proportion of the total nominal salary.

Let me give you a rather simplistic illustration of how this works. Lets say that this year revenue was $5.2B which would mean a player's share of $2.6B. Assume that the sum of all player nominal salaries was $2.8B. The total amount of escrow owed by the players would be $200M. Assume that the withholding rate had be set at 10%. Then the NHL would have collected $280M form the players to cover the expected escrow. The excess of $80M would be distributed back to the players once the final accounting was completed.

Assume that a player had a nominal salary of $X dollars. The amount of salary that the player is entitled to after escrow is

Actual Salary = Nominal Salary * Player share of Revenue/Total nominal salary.

= X * 2.6B/2.8B (*)

This would come to them in two ways. They would receive 90% of their nominal salary in regular installments throughout the year and then a final escrow rebate in the amount of

80M *X / 2.8B

Now if there is an additional $3.4M in cap added into the system and all of it is used $2.8B becomes $2.8034B. Revenue does on change. So if you look at equation (*) all that is new is the denominator. Since it is larger, any player whose nominal salary did not go up due to the extra cap space has their actual realized salary for the year go down. Since that is the case for the vast majority of the players in the NHLPA, it is not at all clear why they would object.

To be clear, what I wrote is a simplification of the actual situation. But the impact it illustrates is accurate.

 

[McDoused]

Naw look what happened with Taylor Hall's return to Boston, and that was just with a normal NTC. They got Hall/Lazar for only Bjork+2nd. Nowhere near the clusterf*** that is the Sharks/Kane situation (that the Sharks are pressured to want to resolve ASAP b/c it affects their offseason even more than us, not to mention their future and locker room in general) and Kane's unique NTC structure.

Also f*** "fair packages". Trying to be "fair" results in you getting taken advantage of by every other GM in the league. see: Chiarelli's entire regime, all of Holland's trades.

Oh absolutely. If we let it drag on the Sharks are absolutely pressured into giving him away for like a 3rd round draft pick in the event that they lose the appeal. Prior to Kane's contract termination San Jose was already rumored to be trying to trade him at 50% retained for a minimal return. The only questions are 1) how long do we think it will drag on and 2) what are Kane's chances of winning the appeal.

I disagree completely. If anything Chia was one of those guys that constantly tried to rip people off to the point where people refused trading with him and would no longer make fair deals. Holland is quite the opposite, he works the phones and is literally in on anything and everything if the price if right. Chia would overpay to get his guy while Holland is much more conservative.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

New thread is up and running gang.

Rumor: - Rumors & Proposals Thread: "Duncan Keith has decided to retire" - Pierre LeBrun

Ken, it's your job Don't fear a trade And spurn the crowd who hates your face Trade for rights or not Draft is weak, not strong This is known, so do it all from Montreal Media's shilled, they've balked, we've read, We've talked, we know, we know Oil fans have been here before Hey, now Ken...

hfboards.mandatory.com

 

[Frank the Tank]

There is a fixed pot of money that is to be distributed to the players based roughly on 50% share of revenue in a given year. (I say roughly because there are some other factors that come into play that could cause the players final share to deviate slightly from the strict 50% limit. Money is earned by players based on their proportion of the total nominal salary.

Let me give you a rather simplistic illustration of how this works. Lets say that this year revenue was $5.2B which would mean a player's share of $2.6B. Assume that the sum of all player nominal salaries was $2.8B. The total amount of escrow owed by the players would be $200M. Assume that the withholding rate had be set at 10%. Then the NHL would have collected $280M form the players to cover the expected escrow. The excess of $80M would be distributed back to the players once the final accounting was completed.

Assume that a player had a nominal salary of $X dollars. The amount of salary that the player is entitled to after escrow is

Actual Salary = Nominal Salary * Player share of Revenue/Total nominal salary.

= X * 2.6B/2.8B (*)

This would come to them in two ways. They would receive 90% of their nominal salary in regular installments throughout the year and then a final escrow rebate in the amount of

80M *X / 2.8B

Now if there is an additional $3.4M in cap added into the system and all of it is used $2.8B becomes $2.8034B. Revenue does on change. So if you look at equation (*) all that is new is the denominator. Since it is larger, any player whose nominal salary did not go up due to the extra cap space has their actual realized salary for the year go down. Since that is the case for the vast majority of the players in the NHLPA, it is not at all clear why they would object.

To be clear, what I wrote is a simplification of the actual situation. But the impact it illustrates is accurate.

But isn't the $3.4M cap subtracted (recapture penalty) from Chicago if Keith retires? The league then effectively reduces the league-wide cap by not balancing it out by giving the Oilers a credit.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Seravelli says there is 6 or 7 teams in on Puljujarvi. Might happen in the next 48 hrs.

Puljujarvi is discussed about 20 min in.

 

[CupofOil]

This might be the best outcome. Locks Kane into a 3 year term. Maybe we get San Jose to keep some cap hit as well.

That would have to a pretty cheap 3 year contract to be worth it, otherwise you're trading Puljujarvi for nothing really.

 

[TheNumber4]

Seravelli says there is 6 or 7 teams in on Puljujarvi. Might happen in the next 48 hrs.

Puljujarvi is discussed about 20 min in.

That’s great new. Dude first says 4-5 teams interested. Frank quickly corrects him and says 6-7 teams interested.

Let’s the Bison King sweepstakes begin!

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I disagree completely. If anything Chia was one of those guys that constantly tried to rip people off to the point where people refused trading with him and would no longer make fair deals. Holland is quite the opposite, he works the phones and is literally in on anything and everything if the price if right. Chia would overpay to get his guy while Holland is much more conservative.

Who the f*** did Chiarelli rip off exactly? I'm fairly sure we lost every single trade under his regime besides maybe the Talbot trade.

Sakic and Yzerman go into every trade looking to skullf*** the opposing team and people still pick up the phone with them every time.

 

[North Cole]

his 3 years prior to last year were as the starter for a very successful Carolina team. He had a save percentage of .905, .914 and .923

Those are acceptable but not great numbers and I would hope for better. The rationale is that his net cost to the team is 600k which allows us to address other holes. His long history with Holland leads me to think that this not an impossible scenario

To me - that's the pump and dump that Dubas got caught in. CAR is a team that can make anyone in net work somehow, their system is extremely favorable to goalies. Toronto is a decent defensive team, but the comparison is - CAR-Mrazek went to TOR and tanked, on the flipside TOR-Andersen went to CAR and had vezina stats.

I feel like if you are buying goalies based on what they did in CAR, you are going to get ripped off.

 

[alphahelix]

That’s great new. Dude first says 4-5 teams interested. Frank quickly corrects him and says 6-7 teams interested.

Let’s the Bison King sweepstakes begin!

Rishaug already said something like that yesterday but said the value being offered was middling. Its 6 or 7 vultures circling, not a bidding war. One lucky bird is going to get to pluck out our eyeballs, may as well circle around and prepare to swoop in for the carrion just in case. Early bird gets the worm. If you're an NHL GM and you hear "Oilers are looking to trade..." --- say no more fam. Get those birds in the air.