Rumor: Rumors or Proposals Thread | Who Do You Look to Move on From in the Offseason?

[Bryanbryoil]

$3.2 million Kassian (way too much AAV for what he brings)
$2.75 million Foegele (see Kassian, just doesn't bring enough of a physical, offensive or special team's game)
$4.5 million Barrie (losing his skating and dynamic offensive play, sell now)

That's $10.45 million in cap right there.

I'd also consider moving Puljujarvi if he hasn't been playing injured for much of this season.

I'd look to bring back Kane for around $6 million AAV for 5 or less years, Kulak for around $2.5 million AAV for 3-4 years, Deslauriers for $1.5-$1.8 million AAV for 3 years and then I'd make a big play for one of Klingberg or Manson and Jack Campbell if TO doesn't want him back for less than Koskinen $. If Kane walks I would try to sign Mason Marchment and/or trade for Jake Debrusk or sign the best forwards that would like to get a McDrai push.

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[Mr Kot]

Koskinen gone is also more cap. Should cover nurse's raise anyway.

Next season, the rookies REALLY have to step up now, especially if our new cap goes to a better goaltender (or Skinner plays well enough to snag #1). I know Holland likes to overripen prospects, but we could use a look at them this year.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Koskinen gone is also more cap. Should cover nurse's raise anyway.

Next season, the rookies REALLY have to step up now, especially if our new cap goes to a better goaltender (or Skinner plays well enough to snag #1). I know Holland likes to overripen prospects, but we could use a look at them this year.

It covers Nurses raise….but we still need a starting goalie. We don’t have the cap for a starting goalie and to bring back our wingers unless we can move all of Kassian, Barrie and Smiths cap with nothing coming back and then maybe some.

 

[Zenos]

Next season, the rookies REALLY have to step up now, especially if our new cap goes to a better goaltender (or Skinner plays well enough to snag #1). I know Holland likes to overripen prospects, but we could use a look at them this year.

Who / what are you expecting here? I guess Holloway is probably the obvious pick - but he’s also still pretty raw and coming off of a season without too much action (due to injury / recovery).

 

[Patch101]

Outside of expiring contracts. Guys with some value .... probably JP, and Kass, but we need to bring a little muscle back in otherwise we are back to being a soft team. Keith obviously, but nobody is taking that.

I think Holloway can step into JP's spot at this point. Guys 24 now, and hasn't helped this team in the post-season.

 

[Mr Kot]

Who / what are you expecting here? I guess Holloway is probably the obvious pick - but he’s also still pretty raw and coming off of a season without too much action (due to injury / recovery).

Broberg I hope gets bottom pairing minutes. McLeod Turned out well enough for the bottom six, so I think giving these guys a shot in lesser roles would be better development. Fingers crossed Samurokov and Lavoie also take good strides this coming year.

 

[Arpeggio]

I really don't think the Oilers need to do that much to remain a top team in the league. I think Holloway makes the team, and if I had to call it I'd say Bourgault also makes the team. If they sign Kuzmenko (and he turns out to be a serviceable top 6 forward), this would be my team:

Kane - McDavid - Kuzmenko
Holloway - Drai - Hyman
Yamamoto - Nuge - Puljujarvi
XXXXX - McLeod - Bourgault

I understand that Bourgault probably doesn't make the team if it's on the fourth line, so maybe he only makes the team if Kuzmenko doesn't sign/busts. But personally I love the mix of the forwards this team has. You move on from Kassian and Foegele, though I like both of these guys. It's not even a small group, and the team speed would be unreal.

Realistically this team will be peaking the following year, but I think they'll have a strong regular season if they just maintain the forward group and develop a couple of young forwards + Broberg. The roster will be even stronger than this year's team.

Goaltending? Well I don't know, I think we're just banking on Skinner at this point, need to find out what they have in him. Because cheaping out on goaltending gives this team a ton of depth in other positions.

 

[McDrai]

I could see something along the lines of Puljujarvi for Crouse straight across. I just get this feeling that Puljujarvi doesn't thrive here with all of the pressure and needs to go to a team where he can just focus on his game. Crouse, while not having as much of an offensive ceiling as Puljujarvi, would be a great fit in our bottom 6 in my opinion.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I could see something along the lines of Puljujarvi for Crouse straight across. I just get this feeling that Puljujarvi doesn't thrive here with all of the pressure and needs to go to a team where he can just focus on his game. Crouse, while not having as much of an offensive ceiling as Puljujarvi, would be a great fit in our bottom 6 in my opinion.

Maybe a Puljujarvi for Roslovic?

 

[DraiInSeiderKuch]

Skip out on resigning Kane. Try to trade Pulji for anything if possible. Bring in some D who can hit and play defensively. Dump Kassian for picks if possible.

Trade Nurse and every draft pick for the next two years for nothing to clear space and look into getting an actual 1st pairing dman.

Find a Goalie or actually give Skinner a chance. Can always make a Goalie move during the season.

 

[CycloneSweep]

$3.2 million Kassian (way too much AAV for what he brings)
$2.75 million Foegele (see Kassian, just doesn't bring enough of a physical, offensive or special team's game)
$4.5 million Barrie (losing his skating and dynamic offensive play, sell now)

That's $10.45 million in cap right there.

I'd also consider moving Puljujarvi if he hasn't been playing injured for much of this season.

I'd look to bring back Kane for around $6 million AAV for 5 or less years, Kulak for around $2.5 million AAV for 3-4 years, Deslauriers for $1.5-$1.8 million AAV for 3 years and then I'd make a big play for one of Klingberg or Manson and Jack Campbell if TO doesn't want him back for less than Koskinen $. If Kane walks I would try to sign Mason Marchment and/or trade for Jake Debrusk or sign the best forwards that would like to get a McDrai push.

That’s 10 mill in cap but we still have a ton of spots to fill and that’s if you can move all those contracts out with no cap coming out.

Right now we have 12 mill in capspace with the following signed

Hyman - McDavid - Blank
Blank - Draisaitl - Blank
Foegele - Nuge - Blank
Shore - Ryan - Kassian
Blank- Blank

Nurse - Ceci
Keith - Bouchard
Blank - Barrie
Blank

Blank
Smith

12 mill for 4 top 9 wingers, a starter and extra guys really isn’t a lot.

But as you said if we could just move out that 10 mill worth of guys that helps, but who is taking them, and for what? And how much cap are we retaining and how much are we sending to them to take it.

The biggest issue is that defence is so locked in. Broberg doesn’t look close enough to be a top 4 regular and Keith doesn’t look like it either. Keith is not movable. So the money you get for moving out Barrie would have to be a solid second pairing defender to hopefully push Keith down and help Bouchard along.

This will be another off season where we have to make cheap adds and hope for the best.

Although I am very certain Smith/Skinner will be the tandem next year for better and worse.

 

[CrazyJoeDavola]

I really don't think the Oilers need to do that much to remain a top team in the league. I think Holloway makes the team, and if I had to call it I'd say Bourgault also makes the team. If they sign Kuzmenko (and he turns out to be a serviceable top 6 forward), this would be my team:

Kane - McDavid - Kuzmenko
Holloway - Drai - Hyman
Yamamoto - Nuge - Puljujarvi
XXXXX - McLeod - Bourgault

I understand that Bourgault probably doesn't make the team if it's on the fourth line, so maybe he only makes the team if Kuzmenko doesn't sign/busts. But personally I love the mix of the forwards this team has. You move on from Kassian and Foegele, though I like both of these guys. It's not even a small group, and the team speed would be unreal.

Realistically this team will be peaking the following year, but I think they'll have a strong regular season if they just maintain the forward group and develop a couple of young forwards + Broberg. The roster will be even stronger than this year's team.

Goaltending? Well I don't know, I think we're just banking on Skinner at this point, need to find out what they have in him. Because cheaping out on goaltending gives this team a ton of depth in other positions.

The problem is with our D-core, that has no strength is any zones. Everyone of them can't generate offense, can't defend, can't be physical, can't move the puck with aplomb. Same can be pretty much said across the rest of 'em outside of bouchard's shot. We have much of the same in our system.

We are f***ed with this dcore and stuck with it unless we make some trades which will cost us. And, given we have no mobile puck moving dmen in our system outside of broberg (who I think is nurse 2.0 with less physicality) and will likely cost us a huge overpay to get one.

 

[mrmisery]

Only changes really need to be on defence.

X - Ceci
Nurse - X
X - Bouchard

No place for Kulak, unfortunately. Keith retires or LTIRetired and Barrie jettisoned. Lot of work for Holland.

 

[CycloneSweep]

The problem is with our D-core, that has no strength is any zones. Everyone of them can't generate offense, can't defend, can't be physical, can't move the puck with aplomb. Same can be pretty much said across the rest of 'em outside of bouchard's shot. We have much of the same in our system.

We are f***ed with this dcore and stuck with it unless we make some trades which will cost us. And, given we have no mobile puck moving dmen in our system outside of broberg (who I think is nurse 2.0 with less physicality) and will likely cost us a huge overpay to get one.

Yeah our defensive prospects is mostly 4-6 defender kinds of guys. I mean Colorado goes Toews for 2 2nds, it’s possible, just need to find a diamond ready to grow. Looking at our defensemen prospects it’s shockingly thin

 

[Mr Kot]

Next years draft is pretty strong. You could probably move some contracts with a bit less in regards to picks. Holland needs to bite the bullet on those kinds of moves.

 

[saucesaitl]

Only changes really need to be on defence.

X - Ceci
Nurse - X
X - Bouchard

No place for Kulak, unfortunately. Keith retires or LTIRetired and Barrie jettisoned. Lot of work for Holland.

why is that?

 

[syz]

Ceci is fine on the 2nd pairing. Bouchard ideally is on the 3rd pairing + power play. Everybody else is a problem. Nurse/Keith/Barrie is $20 million dollars in players who can't handle what they should be able to handle at that price tag. I actually haven't had many problems with Barrie lately but he's been heavily sheltered and you shouldn't have to do that for a guy you're paying 4.5 per year.

For forwards that still have a contract it's really just Kassian. Foegele and Ryan would be fine 4th liners, the former being maybe slightly overpaid for that role.

Without serious changes on the blue line this team will not contend in the McDrai window outside of Nurse somehow living up to his contract and/or Skinner becoming a legit starter.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Decided to look at xGA/60 Relative stats. Minimum 750 min played.
Basically this compares it to their teammates and shows guys who are possibly playing better defense than the rest of their teams. Here is the top 10

1. DeMelo
2. Kulak
3. Pettersson
4. Siegenthaler
5. Chychrun
6. Cole
7. Braun
8. Morissey
9. Meloche
10. Pelech

Now the same for xGF rel

1. McAvoy
2. Karlsson
3. Makar
4. Toews
5. Bouchard
6. Klingberg
7. Krug
8. Nurse
9. Sandin
10. Fox

So the good news is we have 1 guy on the defensive list and 2 guys on the offence list.

So a decent framework could be
Nurse - Blank
Kulak - Bouchard

Kulak can cover for Bouchards weaknesses defensively, so we have to find a strong right shot defensive guy for Nurse. Looking most of the defensive guys on those lists are taken, however all the way down to 40 you have Ceci.

So I think at minimum you use that as your top 4 next year and have Keith and someone else as your bottom pairing if you can move on from Keith.

I don’t know why they would do it but I mean they are in cap hell so who knows but I think Cernak would be perfect beside Nurse.

Don’t know what it would require. Maybe Keith decides he wants to retire, so we help Tampa circumvent the cap. Keith + to Tampa for Cernak, Keith retires in Tampa

Nurse - Cernak
Kulak - Bouchard
Broberg/Niemo - Ceci

Kulak helps Bouchard defensively, Ceci helps the rooks. Swap Ceci up to the second period for later game lead holding.

 

[oilers'72]

Keith has an NMC, so I doubt he wants to leave. Smith could retire but his 2.2M contract would become dead cap, as he signed this contract at 39.

Koskinen is leaving and, if we don't resign Archibald, Brassard, Turris and Russell, that's a saving of $9.725M. Bring up Skinner, Niemaleinen, Holloway and Desharnais (Broberg is here), that's only $4,063,333. Bad thing is our dead cap space which will be $4,166,667 next season. But it gets better after that in 2023-24-25.

Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Edmonton Oilers salary cap, contracts, roster, draft picks, salary, cap space, stats, salary cap projections, and daily cap tracking

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Dazed and Confused]

What happens with Keith is going to be the deciding factor this offseason. If he retires that's a massive amount of cap space available. (5.5 + ~3mil for the recapture penalty).

Though the one thing that stands out to me is they need another horse on the backend, someone that can anchor them defensively.

This isn't a dig at Nurse, rather that over the last decade you near always** need that McDonagh to your Hedman, Hjarmalsson to Keith, Ekholm to Josi, Parayko to Pietrangelo in order to get over the hump.

In an alternate timeline that's a healthy Klefbom, but right now I'd be looking hard (regardless of price) at people like Chychrun or Provorvo, maybe Brodin if Minny looks to sell due to their cap apocalypse.


**Doughty, and Letang are the outliers, but both Pitt and LA had outstanding centres (offensive and defensively) 1 through 4.

 

[Fourier]

Keith has an NMC, so I doubt he wants to leave. Smith could retire but his 2.2M contract would become dead cap, as he signed this contract at 39.

Koskinen is leaving and, if we don't resign Archibald, Brassard, Turris and Russell, that's a saving of $9.725M. Bring up Skinner, Niemaleinen, Holloway and Desharnais (Broberg is here), that's only $4,063,333. Bad thing is our dead cap space which will be $4,166,667 next season. But it gets better after that in 2023-24-25.

Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Edmonton Oilers salary cap, contracts, roster, draft picks, salary, cap space, stats, salary cap projections, and daily cap tracking

www.capfriendly.com

Smith is not under the 35+ rule. They changed the rule in the last CBA and the structure of Smith's deal is such that the rule does not apply.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Decided to look at xGA/60 Relative stats. Minimum 750 min played.
Basically this compares it to their teammates and shows guys who are possibly playing better defense than the rest of their teams. Here is the top 10

1. DeMelo
2. Kulak
3. Pettersson
4. Siegenthaler
5. Chychrun
6. Cole
7. Braun
8. Morissey
9. Meloche
10. Pelech

Now the same for xGF rel

1. McAvoy
2. Karlsson
3. Makar
4. Toews
5. Bouchard
6. Klingberg
7. Krug
8. Nurse
9. Sandin
10. Fox

So the good news is we have 1 guy on the defensive list and 2 guys on the offence list.

So a decent framework could be
Nurse - Blank
Kulak - Bouchard

Kulak can cover for Bouchards weaknesses defensively, so we have to find a strong right shot defensive guy for Nurse. Looking most of the defensive guys on those lists are taken, however all the way down to 40 you have Ceci.

So I think at minimum you use that as your top 4 next year and have Keith and someone else as your bottom pairing if you can move on from Keith.

I don’t know why they would do it but I mean they are in cap hell so who knows but I think Cernak would be perfect beside Nurse.

Don’t know what it would require. Maybe Keith decides he wants to retire, so we help Tampa circumvent the cap. Keith + to Tampa for Cernak, Keith retires in Tampa

Nurse - Cernak
Kulak - Bouchard
Broberg/Niemo - Ceci

Kulak helps Bouchard defensively, Ceci helps the rooks. Swap Ceci up to the second period for later game lead holding.

Some of the players on the defensive player list are very acquirable, very affordable, and very underrated.

I don't think I need to explain much about DeMelo we all watched him last year vs us, strong defensive RHD with good metrics defensively every year and has some offensive upside (has a few 20 point years and the offensive metrics are fine too, just lacks offensive talent is all). The diving is cringe but with how Colorado vs Edmonton has played out maybe we need some more divers on the team. He's 29 and only earns 3 mil for the next 2 years, but has often found himself on the third pairing in Winnipeg so maybe they're willing to move on.

Marcus Pettersson has been a solid 2-way LHD for years with solid defensive metrics and tends to chip in around 20 points per year. Pittsburgh has ~60 million committed to 16 players which gives the illusion that their salary cap situation is fine but it's really not. 2 of the UFAs are Malkin and Letang. Although those 2 are getting on the older side they were still among their best players last year and the Rust deal tells me they're going for one last all in with Crosby. Pettersson is good but has seen his minutes dropped the past 2 seasons in favour of Dumoulin and Matheson, even though he's more than capable of playing a 2nd pairing role. He's still only 26 years old but is earning 4 mil for the next 3 years to play on their bottom pairing, which could make him a cap casualty. Of course Pittsburgh could opt to not keep Malkin and/or Letang and just go young but that could make for a very unhappy Crosby.

We kinda need Keith to retire though if we want the cap space ourselves to make moves like these, so it's probably just a moot point.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

What happens with Keith is going to be the deciding factor this offseason. If he retires that's a massive amount of cap space available. (5.5 + ~3mil for the recapture penalty).

Though the one thing that stands out to me is they need another horse on the backend, someone that can anchor them defensively.

This isn't a dig at Nurse, rather that over the last decade you near always** need that McDonagh to your Hedman, Hjarmalsson to Keith, Ekholm to Josi, Parayko to Pietrangelo in order to get over the hump.

In an alternate timeline that's a healthy Klefbom, but right now I'd be looking hard (regardless of price) at people like Chychrun or Provorvo, maybe Brodin if Minny looks to sell due to their cap apocalypse.


**Doughty, and Letang are the outliers, but both Pitt and LA had outstanding centres (offensive and defensively) 1 through 4.

Travis Sanheim is the guy I would target on Philly, not that I would complain if we acquired Provorov/Chychrun at a reasonable price tag I just think the asking price will be too much. Sanheim is a pending UFA with a reasonable cap hit and solid 2-way dman who doesn't fit Chuck Fletcher's "hits=good" philosophy, shouldn't be too expensive to re-sign either. We could probably snag him for something along the lines of Samorukov+1st.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm not as down on our defense going forward as most. Bouchard will keep improving, I think Nurse will rebound and if we ship out Barrie and give the spot to Broberg, I honestly think he's a future Klef. I hope we can re-sign Kulak as well.

I'm also not too worried about what happens with the forward group. I'm loving the progression of McLeod. Our worst case scenario we will at least have McDavid, Drai, Hyman, RNH, Holloway, McLeod and maybe Bourgault. Yamo probably comes back, Kuzmenko may come, and I could also see us realistically bring in a guy like Domi for a cheap rebound deal.

 

[Beerfish]

Like last year and the year before and the year before the top 10 needs of this team is:

Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending, Goaltending,

#11 is everything else.

If the Oilers go into next year with Mike Smith and a 100% unproven Skinner, well I was going to say 'so help me' but I think I said the same thing the last two years about oilers tending.