Proposal: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Under Sell and Over Deliver or Stuck in First Gear?

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McJesusSaves97

I see the light
May 17, 2015
1,821
1,336
Cowtown: Behind Enemy Lines
Holland really hasn't done anything stupid on our team. But, we'll see with the money he has. I believe in him
I hope depth is the priority. We have Drai, McD, Nurse as a great base, then guys like Nuge & Larsson(maybe) that are good/solid, then a whole bunch of young guys trying to find where/if they fit & another group of replacement level plugs
 

CupofOil

Knob Flavored Coffey
Aug 20, 2009
47,301
41,902
NYC
Holland had a concerning quote in the Athletic recently where he talked about how Bergevin built a good team by adding free agents to his core pieces. If he thinks he can make the Oilers a contender through FA signings only, then prepare to be massively disappointed. He needs to make a trade. Each of the final four teams have good players acquired via trade in prominent roles.

That doesn't make sense though because Bergevin built that team through trade primarily. Weber, Petry, Suzuki, Anderson, Tatar, Drouin, Allen. The only "big" free agents they signed were Toffoli and Edmundson. The rest of their notable players were either drafted by them or acquired by trade.

Holland must have been misquoted or he's completely out of touch with how Montreal is built as very little of their team is built through free agency.

Also, I wouldn't call Montreal a "success". They kind of fluked out the Toronto series win and Winnipeg didn't even bother to show up in that series. I don't see this team built for long term success in regards to Cup contention especially once the NHL goes back to "normal". They could easily miss the playoffs next season.
 
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McJadeddog

Registered User
Sep 25, 2003
20,287
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Regina, Saskatchewan
Holland really hasn't done anything stupid on our team. But, we'll see with the money he has. I believe in him

I would argue the Kassian deal was pretty stupid as was the AA trade. Neither are *massive* mistakes, but I'd argue they are of the "bigger mistake" variety. But yes, he hasn't done much to severely limit his options this summer, which was always the first off-season where he would really have some freedom to do some things. This off-season and next off-season basically determine whether we are a cup contender during the McDrai years.
 

Anarchism

John Henry
May 23, 2019
4,024
1,130
northern alberta
Holland really hasn't done anything stupid on our team. But, we'll see with the money he has. I believe in him
For the most part im a Holland supporter. But yes he has done at least two stupid things since he has arrived.
Further he is not the GM he was 20 years ago. Im very worried he has no idea about how to acquire the 3rd line we need, the 1LW in trade, or how to set up the goaltending. I think he needs more help than Keith Gretzky. The Kassian thing is not necessarily a mistake as there may be a market for him soon.
 
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belair

Balls On The Crest
Apr 9, 2010
38,755
22,038
Canada
I'm leaning a little more towards trading for Jake Debrusk than I'd be willing to give term to one of these misfit top-six UFA guys. The cost of acquisition is probably pretty low. And I can see him bouncing back to being a 20+ goal winger on a skill line.

Use the cap to improve the areas of significant weakness.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,766
20,330
Waterloo Ontario
Google doesn't have a bunch of 18 year-olds running around, but they will take on very promising students out of high school. That shouldn't really be surprising, given that some of the brightest tech minds never finish college (eg Vitalik Buterin, who is probably a genius; Zuckerberg, less so; Dorsey, even less so, but still). Some people don't really need formal training to get this stuff.

And I didn't say club stats departments weren't good or aren't getting better. But the idea that someone working from home can't provide good analytical insight because they don't work for an NHL team is laughable.
The guys you listed here are unicorns. What they have in common is that they were entrepeneurs. They all left college to either start businesses or in the case of Buterin to take a Thiel Fellowship. Zuckerberg was at Harvard. Dorsey left NYU just before graduating. They were not recruited out of high school to work in a company like Google. For serious jobs that would be extremely rare. For serious data science jobs it might be close to impossible because of the amount of mathematics those jobs require. We are not talking about just programing data bases here.

Buterin's case I know well as he went to the school I teach at. I didn't teach him but I do teach the classes he took regularly. He was a 2012 brone medalist IOI before coming to Waterloo.

At one point a good part of my job was to meet with senior execs from companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google etc concerning issues around recruiting. All those companies recruit heavily from the best schools in the world. That is where they get the best of the best.

Going forward on the hockey analytic side we are not going to be talking about guys who scrape NHL stats to write their blogs anymore. NHL teams are hiring serious data analytics companies. Many of these are led by teams of professionals with Ph.D.'s in data science related disiplines. That is what you will see going forward if it has not already taken place.
 
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Soundwave

Registered User
Mar 1, 2007
72,195
27,997
I'm leaning a little more towards trading for Jake Debrusk than I'd be willing to give term to one of these misfit top-six UFA guys. The cost of acquisition is probably pretty low. And I can see him bouncing back to being a 20+ goal winger on a skill line.

Use the cap to improve the areas of significant weakness.

I don't the cost would be that low. Probably EDM's 1st, and I think Holland doesn't want to trade that because it makes him look bad with the organization having no 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick this draft.
 

McTonyBrar

Registered User
Apr 2, 2018
18,510
19,398
I respect Nuge for taking less money. He wants to win with the team he grew up with and the players he loves to be with. Stand up Guy. Giving the team a chance to succeed
 
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Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
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I would tend towards bad analytics rather than no analytics. I don't think any GM for the last 40 years can sit down and say they didn't use any analytics.

I also think we have signed / targeted a number of advanced stats darlings over say the last five years. Pouliot, Sekera, Chiasson, Strome, Archi, Koekkoek, Ennis, Turris, Kulikov etc.

Interesting comment. We have certaintly passed up on elite analytics darlings who got moved for reasonable prices, and made signings/trades that flew in the face of analytics. I dont think the Oilers org is targeting base don analytics, moreso over numerous years of signings have signed some with solid numbers

-Turris was the opposite of an advanced stat darling. The analytics were actually bad for him and the analytics "community" was warning on that deal.
-Pouliot/Sekera worked out pretty well. The issue with BP was the term (and you should never go over 2 years on a depth player), he was good in his first 2 years for his $ point. Sekera was one of our best D weve had in the last decade
-Chaisson had garbage analytics when he signed his extension here. He was a classic example of a guy who rode shotgun to McDavid and cashed in, the same story would repeat with Kassian the following year. Nowhere near a darling
-Strome did have good analytics, didnt do well here but his useage with our blackhole bottom 6 sucked. He is crushing it on the Rangers in normal/proper useage
-Koekkoek I agree with, good underlying stats, meh performance
-Turris Id say is improperly being used, his production in some garbage minutes is very solid and defensively hes solid. Id sign more of the Turris types. It is just up to the coach to play them in proper roles
 
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belair

Balls On The Crest
Apr 9, 2010
38,755
22,038
Canada
I don't the cost would be that low. Probably EDM's 1st, and I think Holland doesn't want to trade that because it makes him look bad with the organization having no 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick this draft.
Why would he be valued at a 1st round pick?

He's clearly become a player the Bruins don't have time for. If they sign Hall in the off-season, the player has clearly been replaced. I'm sure they'd be more than happy to move on from the salary commitment.
 

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
3,896
Umm no Nuge is taking around 5.5-5.75 according to Leavins. Stop thinking of Holland as a moron like Chiarelli

Holland will hardball Nuge but will toss that saved cap space on some third line grinder who just had a good stretch of playoff games recently

Of the top 20 worst contracts signed since 2013ish, Holland probably has signed 3 of them (Abelkader, Weisse, Neilsen). And Ericcson and Franzen deals were pretty bad,

If you stack up bad contracts, Holland is the closest rival to Chiarelli
 
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McTonyBrar

Registered User
Apr 2, 2018
18,510
19,398
I would argue the Kassian deal was pretty stupid as was the AA trade. Neither are *massive* mistakes, but I'd argue they are of the "bigger mistake" variety. But yes, he hasn't done much to severely limit his options this summer, which was always the first off-season where he would really have some freedom to do some things. This off-season and next off-season basically determine whether we are a cup contender during the McDrai years.

Agreed. It was weird how Kassian fell off a cliff after he signed that contract. Before that, he was a complete demon. AA I was excited for but clearly he didn't fit with the team
 

McTonyBrar

Registered User
Apr 2, 2018
18,510
19,398
Certainly sounds like they are trying to make that a reality. Guess we'll see. Are they apart by 1.5 M each year, or 500K each year? Grinding to span 500K is pretty doable, bridging a 1.5M gap is a lot more difficult.

Hmmm I think it's going to end up around 5.75 mill and 6-7 years. I bet this gets done end of the week.
 

Aceboogie

Registered User
Aug 25, 2012
32,649
3,896
Lol can't read the future man. Let's wait and see

Can look at the past. Hollands last 10 years in Detriot dont get erased just because he switched teams. And hes been making pretty similar signings here, he just hasnt had the cap space to make a big splash signing.. but has that this summer.
 
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