Speculation: Roster Management time table..

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Leafs are going through a rough patch right now, happened last year too. There is a massive amount of the sky is falling from the young inexperienced fans. The Leafs go into each game at least equals! all is good in Leaf land

how many times does it have to be explained to you that people realize that hockey teams lose sometimes, but what's happening now goes beyond that?

 

[Buds17]

Of the pending UFAs, the only one I see possibly returning is Komarov, though that's probably going to involve taking a relatively short term deal. We'll see if he's amenable to that. Don't know that we go into next season with two full-time "rookie" centres (if Nylander is moved there, 4th line C is a trade/UFA, if Aaltonen or Gauthier win the 4C role, there's a stopgap signing instead of Nylander).

Think we'll have at least one change on the blueline, which is the Polak/Carrick spot, but it might be too ambitious to move Gardiner. It's also possible that either Dermott or Liljegren make the team. There could be interest in re-signing JVR, but he might want more term than we're willing to give. If we move any of the UFAs, he'd bring back the best return and we'd have enough wing depth to play out the season. Could always use the offseason to reassess if we need more scoring. Matthews is the only player I envision being offered a full term contract.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Never played hockey at a high level, but I feel that gardiner gave him too much net to look at

A defenceman had the puck, he was left-handed (i.e. not on his off-wing), and Larkin was on the other side. Gardiner played it fine - challenged a d-man to take a perfect shot, which he did.

Sometimes you make the percentage play and still get burned. That's hockey.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Of the pending UFAs, the only one I see possibly returning is Komarov, though that's probably going to involve taking a relatively short term deal. We'll see if he's amenable to that. Don't know that we go into next season with two full-time "rookie" centres (if Nylander is moved there, 4th line C is a trade/UFA, if Aaltonen or Gauthier win the 4C role, there's a stopgap signing instead of Nylander).

Think we'll have at least one change on the blueline, which is the Polak/Carrick spot, but it might be too ambitious to move Gardiner. It's also possible that either Dermott or Liljegren make the team. There could be interest in re-signing JVR, but he might want more term than we're willing to give. If we move any of the UFAs, he'd bring back the best return and we'd have enough wing depth to play out the season. Could always use the offseason to reassess if we need more scoring. Matthews is the only player I envision being offered a full term contract.

We have 21 players becoming UFA's or RFA's for 2018 off season. The only 3 that might be agreed on unanimously that should be re-signed are Nylander,A. Johnson and Soshnikov. I would personally add in C.Pickard and JVR as the 4th and 5th must signs. Jvr could be traded by the deadline and so could Bozak.

Willy should in my ideal world be playing Bozaks center minutes as quickly as possible

16 players that we could walk away from leaves plenty of flexability. Soshnikov is pretty injury prone but I wouldn't mind a bridge deal for him.

Lou could get really busy between now and July 1st.

 

[Buds17]

We have 21 players becoming UFA's or RFA's for 2018 off season. The only 3 that might be agreed on unanimously that should be re-signed are Nylander,A. Johnson and Soshnikov. I would personally add in C.Pickard and JVR as the 4th and 5th must signs. Jvr should be traded by the deadline and so should Bozak.

Willy should in my ideal world be playing Bozaks center minutes as quickly as possible

16 players that we could walk away from leaves plenty of flexability. Soshnikov is pretty injury prone but I wouldn't mind a bridge deal for him.

Lou could get really busy between now and July 1st.

We're probably closer to being the team management/coaching wants compared to what they inherited, but there's still a fair bit of roster turnover to come. How quickly is what remains to be seen. A handful of changes from what we currently have going into the start of next season would be fairly significant IMO.

We have options at wing, but I'd like to see Johnsson work his way into the plans, Nylander to C (would of course be ideal if we could move Bozak by the deadline if the plan is to part ways) and I think Pickard has a better chance of eventually usurping McElhinney as backup than Sparks does. Soshnikov would probably be a lineup fixture if not for injuries, but those are a factor.

 

[ITM]

how many times does it have to be explained to you that people realize that hockey teams lose sometimes, but what's happening now goes beyond that?

Seldom right but never in doubt...

I'm one of those that don't understand how a certain group of fans can be as outraged as they are based on reasonable growing pains. I think it has something to do with information cycles and attention spans. Beyond this thought however, is the also oft repeated explanation that says that "what's happening now" is precisely the point of those arguing that as dire as a circumstance or a player can appear from time to time, it's not only normative but should be expected as this team follows the path of contenders that invariably leads through valleys and over peaks to valleys again...and again and again and again.

If you want to talk about "what's happening now goes beyond that", there's an Oilers section at HFBoards that might be worth your while.

Any cursory review of how most contenders are built sees certain periods of detrimental reliance discovered and altered and through it all, the step by step learning of what and who it takes to get from one round to the next.

Take Detroit of the mid-90s for example, who certainly had every reason to believe that Keith Primeau who looked every bit the up and coming prototypical star centre and Paul Coffey the shoe-in Hall of Fame Oilers dynasty number one offensive defenceman would be instrumental to win the Cups that the club seemed poised to win. In fact, the year before Brendan Shanahan was acquired (for Coffey and Primeau), a season in which one would have to argue Coffey and Primeau were instrumental, the Red Wings set a club record of 62 wins with only 13 losses and a .799 winning percentage. There third best winning percentage came the year before with Coffey and Primeau who both outscored Steve Yzerman. In fact in that shortened season Paul Coffey led the Wings in scoring.

This to say, even if by all appearances our club was top of the league (in Auston Matthews sophomore season no less) in every category, the mid-90's Detroit Red Wings can attest that a record-setting regular season doesn't guarantee a Stanley Cup. The talk that year was how Detroit purposely stepped back from emptying themselves during the regular season and learned how to be a playoffs team heading into the playoffs. It seemed like Detroit had regressed. But those regular season winning habits didn't produce post-season winning results.

Now do you really think that the man who was the principal acquired in that trade and who was described as the lynchpin that moved the Wings into a truly championship team has suddenly forgot what the importance of a team appearing like in the regular season has nothing to do with what they do in the post-season? Should I also note that the second best regular season winning percentage in Detroit's history belongs to our coach? This same coach has been to the Stanley Cup Finals three times...I'm confident in the process Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock believe in, over those people that insist they know that "what's happening now goes beyond" the experience, expertise and filters of synthesis and analysis of these actual champions who understand that championships aren't won in the now and that it takes as long as it takes.

 

[AM34WN29MM16]

Seldom right but never in doubt...

'Take Detroit of the mid-90s for example, who certainly had every reason to believe that Keith Primeau who looked every bit the up and coming prototypical star centre and Paul Coffey the shoe-in Hall of Fame Oilers dynasty number one offensive defenceman would be instrumental to win the Cups that the club seemed poised to win.

Wow, so we're comparing this year's iteration of the Leafs to the mid-90's Wings? Great analogy. Comparing a young developing team that seems to have stagnated or regressed with all time best veteran laden RW teams. I think fans are less outraged and more extremely concerned that a highly talented team has swung from a defensively porous team at the beginning of the year to the offensively neutered team we see now and at no point during that journey have they appeared to be anywhere near as dominant as their record might suggest. Previous recent history has shown that 18 wheelers are not a fiction but a too painful reality. Leafs fans shouldn't be panicking. Yet. But real concern is entirely justified.

 

[ITM]

Wow, so we're comparing this year's iteration of the Leafs to the mid-90's Wings? Great analogy. Comparing a young developing team that seems to have stagnated or regressed with all time best veteran laden RW teams. I think fans are less outraged and more extremely concerned that a highly talented team has swung from a defensively porous team at the beginning of the year to the offensively neutered team we see now and at no point during that journey have they appeared to be anywhere near as dominant as their record might suggest. Previous recent history has shown that 18 wheelers are not a fiction but a too painful reality. Leafs fans shouldn't be panicking. Yet. But real concern is entirely justified.

No, not as you've chosen to definitively interpret it. I know it's an annoyance, asking questions and having to wait for answers from the source, I know. And I know that's it's fashionable to provide preferred answers to support preferred narratives. But as if to confirm my suspicion that present day information cycles and attention spans have greatly affected people's ability to infer logical conclusions from valid premises, yours was an endearing start to the exchange.

However, the purpose of bringing up the mid-90's Detroit championship teams was to point out something that if obvious, should negate the context of criticism. Namely, that Shanahan and Babcock (and LL.) have a handle on the situation in a direct fashion that some fans can't apparently conceive entails seeing a larger picture beyond the present that the same fans define as panic-worthy. It simply isn't reasonable IF we consider pre-Shanahan management and IF we consider the history of the management group he's assembled.

See I'm comparing certain fans unhinged disposition and their apprehension with those running the club and their actual experience in circumstances in which even with a HOF roster, the guarantee of a smooth, direct, predictable path to championship isn't knowable and should therefore be left at most at the level of continued concern as opposed to the special pleading that's being passed off as concern by some and outright cause for inquiry into regime change by others.

Because there is no connection between Burke's 18-wheeler and Shanahan's present. That correlation is actually evidence of said disconnect and it's that type of disconnect that needs to be pointed out for the irrational conclusion it is. Because if you understand who is in charge, how long developing a champion takes and where we ACTUALLY are on our timeline, then the level of concern by some fans demonstrates a complete ignorance of the level of competency our management has demonstrated in the past which should advise trust rather than moment to moment anxiety.

 

[AM34WN29MM16]

No, not as you've chosen to definitively interpret it. I know it's an annoyance, asking questions and having to wait for answers from the source, I know. And I know that's it's fashionable to provide preferred answers to support preferred narratives. But as if to confirm my suspicion that present day information cycles and attention spans have greatly affected people's ability to infer logical conclusions from valid premises, yours was an endearing start to the exchange.

However, the purpose of bringing up the mid-90's Detroit championship teams was to point out something that if obvious, should negate the context of criticism. Namely, that Shanahan and Babcock (and LL.) have a handle on the situation in a direct fashion that some fans can't apparently conceive entails seeing a larger picture beyond the present that the same fans define as panic-worthy. It simply isn't reasonable IF we consider pre-Shanahan management and IF we consider the history of the management group he's assembled.

See I'm comparing certain fans unhinged disposition and their apprehension with those running the club and their actual experience in circumstances in which even with a HOF roster, the guarantee of a smooth, direct, predictable path to championship isn't knowable and should therefore be left at most at the level of continued concern as opposed to the special pleading that's being passed off as concern by some and outright cause for inquiry into regime change by others.

Because there is no connection between Burke's 18-wheeler and Shanahan's present. That correlation is actually evidence of said disconnect and it's that type of disconnect that needs to be pointed out for the irrational conclusion it is. Because if you understand who is in charge, how long developing a champion takes and where we ACTUALLY are on our timeline, then the level of concern by some fans demonstrates a complete ignorance of the level of competency our management has demonstrated in the past which should advise trust rather than moment to moment anxiety.

I'm pretty sure 18 wheelers continued into the Nonis era and the first year of the Shanahan era. Even under the greatest coach in the world in year 2 of Shanahan's the Leafs finished last overall, but I'll give Babcock and Shanahan the benefit of the doubt as to the intended result. So forgive me if I question your evidence of a disconnect.

 

[realgoodleafs]

how many times does it have to be explained to you that people realize that hockey teams lose sometimes, but what's happening now goes beyond that?

The team had a horrible stretch last year too. There's nothing different about it.

 

[LeafGrief]

I'm pretty sure 18 wheelers continued into the Nonis era and the first year of the Shanahan era. Even under the greatest coach in the world in year 2 of Shanahan's the Leafs finished last overall, but I'll give Babcock and Shanahan the benefit of the doubt as to the intended result. So forgive me if I question your evidence of a disconnect.

So? Nonis is gone. Shanahan waited out the first year before making any drastic changes. That was a Nonis team that had a Nonis finish. The only players from that team that remain are JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Kadri, Komarov, Rielly, Polak, and Leivo. Different coach, different management, different players. We are two years separated from that team that finished last overall. We have six sophomores and a rookie on our roster. Even if the team is playing poorly right now, to connect this team with the teams of yesteryear is the kind of Doomsday prophesying that drives people nuts. It's not based on facts or anything based in reality. It's imagining the worst case scenario and completely ignoring any of the positive things from this season.

 

[member 262271]

The team had a horrible stretch last year too. There's nothing different about it.

Only difference is perception - the expectations are higher among fans now so annoyance/frustration/whining whatever you call it is going to happen. I'm sure as hell guilty of it.

 

[Kiwi]

The team had a horrible stretch last year too. There's nothing different about it.

I don't think we were this bad for this long though

Andersen has basically carried the team since early November and some of the trends are really concerning

We can score but can't defend then start playing defense and can't score, we're getting outplayed a lot, some of our major offensive weapons are really struggling, we give up a ton of shots, the second pair hasn't looked good for ages, Komorov has fallen off a cliff and Bozak is having a bad year, Polak is getting regular minutes and basically only two defenseman were trusted to PK for 25 games

We also have the highest PDO in the entire league

There's some bad trends, I still think we're a playoff team but more bubble than 100+ points

 

[AM34WN29MM16]

So? Nonis is gone. Shanahan waited out the first year before making any drastic changes. That was a Nonis team that had a Nonis finish. The only players from that team that remain are JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Kadri, Komarov, Rielly, Polak, and Leivo. Different coach, different management, different players. We are two years separated from that team that finished last overall. We have six sophomores and a rookie on our roster. Even if the team is playing poorly right now, to connect this team with the teams of yesteryear is the kind of Doomsday prophesying that drives people nuts. It's not based on facts or anything based in reality. It's imagining the worst case scenario and completely ignoring any of the positive things from this season.

Lol - please read the posts for context. Firstly, my original post was to the effect you can understand with recent history why Leafs fans are still sensitive to an 18 wheeler. ITM said there was an actual disconnect between Burke and his 18 wheeler history; so my second point was to simply point out that that was not true. Any my point to you is that IMO this team is not just playing poorly right now; they've played poorly most of the season. Connected or not to previous teams, this team seems to lack the combined offensive and defensive structure that is so eerily familiar to the Wilson and Carlyle teams.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I don't think we were this bad for this long though

Andersen has basically carried the team since early November and some of the trends are really concerning

We can score but can't defend then start playing defense and can't score, we're getting outplayed a lot, some of our major offensive weapons are really struggling, we give up a ton of shots, the second pair hasn't looked good for ages, Komorov has fallen off a cliff and Bozak is having a bad year, Polak is getting regular minutes and basically only two defenseman were trusted to PK for 25 games

We also have the highest PDO in the entire league

There's some bad trends, I still think we're a playoff team but more bubble than 100+ points

I remember all the career years for multiple players and the rookies were unknown. Teams learned how to play our rookies and they are adjusting still.

Still lots of team building to go!

 

[Kiwi]

I remember all the career years for multiple players and the rookies were unknown. Teams learned how tonplay our rookies and they are adjusting still.

Still lots of team building to go!

For sure

We're a work in progress still and hopefully the kids will learn from this tough stretch and be better for it

 

[ITM]

Lol - please read the posts for context. Firstly, my original post was to the effect you can understand with recent history why Leafs fans are still sensitive to an 18 wheeler. ITM said there was an actual disconnect between Burke and his 18 wheeler history; so my second point was to simply point out that that was not true. Any my point to you is that IMO this team is not just playing poorly right now; they've played poorly most of the season. Connected or not to previous teams, this team seems to lack the combined offensive and defensive structure that is so eerily familiar to the Wilson and Carlyle teams.

Wrong...I said there's a disconnect between Burke's 18-wheeler and Shanahan's present as it speaks to informed criticism and the predicate that most of the current prophets of doom refuse to disconnect despite that objectively it (i.e. Shanahan's present) is disconnected and moreover not simply arbitrarily disconnected but disconnected in a step by step measurable fashion by Shanahan himself that's verifiable and repeatedly quoted by HFBoards participants and the media alike.

That's the only context in which Burke was used.

Once again, you're inferring preferred conclusions to fit your preferred narrative.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I think its time to start moving in some fresh legs to replace players like Polak, komarov, Moore, Bozak and to a lesser degree (healthy scratch spot duty) Martin.

Marner! No need to check the position he is playing on his line, it is still right wing.

But he looks like the center you say!!!!

Yeah, he does at that. I would like to see him playing Bozaks position in the near future along with Jvr continuing to hold down the left wing spot.

My thinking is that he might struggle on faceoffs and coverage down low in the defensive zone but a good hard challenge would do him good.

Or just move Willy up to center that line. Bozak was a good soldier but moving him down tge lineup or trading him looks like its tome has cone.

Watching the Columbus game yesterday showed some vets looked like they were out of gas. Getting some energy innthe line up now with promoting prospects might be something to be seriousy considering for management!

Maybe they already are considering it but don't have any trading partners interested on our players.

I would still like to see the next phase of this build get us younger and faster/ better take place after the holidays.

 

[Critical13]

One thing I've noticed is we've lost the tenacity we had last season on the forecheck. Opposing teams are given too much time and space. Keep Kapanen up full time, bring in Dermott.

I've also noticed our defence lose a ton of battles in our end. The puck moving is fantastic but opposing forecheckers are just running us over in terms of defensive boardplay. Results in broken plays and long possessions for the bad guys.

 

[Blanche Blanche]

Seldom right but never in doubt...

I'm one of those that don't understand how a certain group of fans can be as outraged as they are based on reasonable growing pains. I think it has something to do with information cycles and attention spans. Beyond this thought however, is the also oft repeated explanation that says that "what's happening now" is precisely the point of those arguing that as dire as a circumstance or a player can appear from time to time, it's not only normative but should be expected as this team follows the path of contenders that invariably leads through valleys and over peaks to valleys again...and again and again and again.

If you want to talk about "what's happening now goes beyond that", there's an Oilers section at HFBoards that might be worth your while.

Any cursory review of how most contenders are built sees certain periods of detrimental reliance discovered and altered and through it all, the step by step learning of what and who it takes to get from one round to the next.

Take Detroit of the mid-90s for example, who certainly had every reason to believe that Keith Primeau who looked every bit the up and coming prototypical star centre and Paul Coffey the shoe-in Hall of Fame Oilers dynasty number one offensive defenceman would be instrumental to win the Cups that the club seemed poised to win. In fact, the year before Brendan Shanahan was acquired (for Coffey and Primeau), a season in which one would have to argue Coffey and Primeau were instrumental, the Red Wings set a club record of 62 wins with only 13 losses and a .799 winning percentage. There third best winning percentage came the year before with Coffey and Primeau who both outscored Steve Yzerman. In fact in that shortened season Paul Coffey led the Wings in scoring.

This to say, even if by all appearances our club was top of the league (in Auston Matthews sophomore season no less) in every category, the mid-90's Detroit Red Wings can attest that a record-setting regular season doesn't guarantee a Stanley Cup. The talk that year was how Detroit purposely stepped back from emptying themselves during the regular season and learned how to be a playoffs team heading into the playoffs. It seemed like Detroit had regressed. But those regular season winning habits didn't produce post-season winning results.

Now do you really think that the man who was the principal acquired in that trade and who was described as the lynchpin that moved the Wings into a truly championship team has suddenly forgot what the importance of a team appearing like in the regular season has nothing to do with what they do in the post-season? Should I also note that the second best regular season winning percentage in Detroit's history belongs to our coach? This same coach has been to the Stanley Cup Finals three times...I'm confident in the process Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock believe in, over those people that insist they know that "what's happening now goes beyond" the experience, expertise and filters of synthesis and analysis of these actual champions who understand that championships aren't won in the now and that it takes as long as it takes.

Damnit..i wanted an applause gif here for this guy...didnt work

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Does anyone think vegas showed Lou enough how weak the team is under a heavy forcheck?

The defense is definitely not a whole of its parts. This group are soloists and get running around way to much for away to long.

I can't see much success coming in the next few weeks if certain players aren't removed from the lineup at both forward and defense.

In my initial post i said Andersen has blurred the lines of where the team is.

I still fully believe that is the case. Lots of fans were mad about the Vegas game. There is more to come if changes aren't made is what i have been seeing for 2 months now.

Hopefully Lou gets busy making is younger very shortly or we are in for a drop like a rock in the standings with this roster.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Finally a move of significance with Gauthier getting called up. I don't think he will be sent back down.

This might be the first move of a evaluation process of the teams weak defensive work.

More moves to come now i think!

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Dermott called up now also. I think they seen enough and there is a soft plannin place with tegards to promoting prospects right away. The hard plan likely involves some trades coming innthe near future. Maybe some waivers and Ahl trades also.

There is a big part of our 50 contracts going to change significantly here.

Hopefully Babcock is keeping the hype off by saying Dermott is just up for practice.

I helieve that is exactlybthe case because Dermott is as ready as could be right now and better than all of mrincin,polak,carrick and quite possibly very equal to Borgman.

I'm very curious on the timeline for Zaitsev's return right now!

The next phase is actually starting as suspected. Thats awesome!

Johnsson can't be far behind at this point! Possibly even Lilly too.

Liljigren, Dermott and Gauthier, Johnsson would change the complexion of the lineup for the good. I think Rychel is ready also and could help us but likely won't get much agreement on him coming up.

 

[Bullseye]

Most on here don't understand or are not bright enough to see that there is plan/strategy in place to develop this team into a perennial top 5 NHL team. We are a couple years away from that.

Please explain the plan to me. Are we going for it this year?

 

[Mr Hockey]

Please explain the plan to me. Are we going for it this year?

Naw, we are not 100% committed to winning the cup this year. If you need me to explain it, you most likely wouldn't understand it.