Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVI

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mas0764

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I have no clue how that's the way you took that.

2024-2025 is the earliest. They are not waiving their NMC or have no intention to. With the way things have shaped up, we will not need them to waive.
If we can keep them all, great.

It sounds to me like Larry is suggesting that there are problems coming and it sounds like he's hinting that the solution is letting someone like Lafreniere, Miller or Kakko walk.

That's unacceptable.

If he thinks there are other solutions then he should be less cryptic. Larry has also been wrong not infrequently lately.
 
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duhmetreE

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If we can keep them all, great.

It sounds to me like Larry is suggesting that there are problems coming and it sounds like he's hinting that the solution is letting someone like Lafreniere, Miller or Kakko walk.

That's unacceptable.

If he thinks there are other solutions then he should be less cryptic.
That's not what he suggest at all. He said Laffy and KAM may cost aroudn $10M. Kakko is the wild card because of his injuries.

The big vets with NMC, will not waive their full NMC. Meaning there's a couple more season of them being here, when their NMC turn to modified-NTC.

We should have enough space for everyone
 

mas0764

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That's not what he suggest at all. He said Laffy and KAM may cost aroudn $10M. Kakko is the wild card because of his injuries.

The big vets with NMC, will not waive their full NMC. Meaning there's a couple more season of them being here, when their NMC turn to modified-NTC.

We should have enough space for everyone
I hope so. Even so there is an unacknowledged opportunity loss by employing overpaid veterans for lesser roles when they've been supplaned on the top lines/pairs, STs, etc.
 

pld459666

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In the 23-24 season, if we start to get the same level of production from Kakko and Lafreniere that the Blues are getting from Kyrou and Thomas, then just like the Blues, we are going to have to let (trade) one of, if not both, Kreider and Trouba. This also assumes that Schneider continues his solid development.

Kreider at 6.5 on the 3rd line and Trouba at 8 per on the third pairing is not what I would consider good cap management.

Depending on what happens this playoffs, this draft/summer while I would not MAKE calls on either CK or JT, I would not hang up the phone if someone was to call me about either guy.
 

mas0764

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In the 23-24 season, if we start to get the same level of production from Kakko and Lafreniere that the Blues are getting from Kyrou and Thomas, then just like the Blues, we are going to have to let (trade) one of, if not both, Kreider and Trouba. This also assumes that Schneider continues his solid development.

Kreider at 6.5 on the 3rd line and Trouba at 8 per on the third pairing is not what I would consider good cap management.

Depending on what happens this playoffs, this draft/summer while I would not MAKE calls on either CK or JT, I would not hang up the phone if someone was to call me about either guy.

I absolutely agree. Oh, so we all agree that we can move them after 23-24 but not after 22-23? Why the hell not? We think Schneider will be ready by '24 but not '23? I think he's nearly already ready.

Is it only the NMC in the way? We may be able to get them to waive, it's not impossible.
 

haohmaru

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So, Kreider, Zibanejad, Trouba and Panarin aren't waiving their NMC's anytime soon is somehow news? Some of us, <cough cough>, have been saying this for months. Why the hell would they waive when this team is going to have the 2nd or 3rd best record in the East and is IMPROVING? These cap fantasies where _____ waives to go to Arizona for a pick and a top prospect are pure fantasy.

Until there's some leverage, ie... modified NTC's, there's no reason for any of them to consider it and little reason for the Rangers to ask for it (no leverage). Ask yourself if you were Kreider would you waive this summer? Nope. Nope. and Nope.
 

mas0764

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If the team told me they were going to put me in a role I did not want, I would consider waiving.

Well, if I weren't a life long Rangers fan. I personally would accept a demotion to the fourth line to stay with the Rangers because I've been a fan since I was 11. For all we know, people like Kreider and Trouba may feel that way.

But it's more likely that they want to play and be featured. The difficulty to get players to waive is a bit oversold here. It's hard, but it's not utterly impossible in every situation.

This is the pitch: "Jacob, the Red Wings called and they are desperate to acquire you. We love you here too, but we see you as a second pair defender this year and your role is only going to get smaller in the next 18 months as we need to carve out PP and PK time for Miller, Jones, and Robertson as well. The Red Wings want to put you on their first pair and have you mentor Seider like you did with K'Andre. They were super impressed with your work and want to give you 28 minutes a night. We aren't trying to move you, but you aren't gonna see that ice time here. Would you rather go back to your home state and play a featured role?"

Some people say yes to that.
 

Pawnee Rangers

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If the team told me they were going to put me in a role I did not want, I would consider waiving.

Well, if I weren't a life long Rangers fan. I personally would accept a demotion to the fourth line to stay with the Rangers because I've been a fan since I was 11. For all we know, people like Kreider and Trouba may feel that way.

But it's more likely that they want to play and be featured. The difficulty to get players to waive is a bit oversold here. It's hard, but it's not utterly impossible in every situation.

This is the pitch: "Jacob, the Red Wings called and they are desperate to acquire you. We love you here too, but we see you as a second pair defender this year and your role is only going to get smaller in the next 18 months as we need to carve out PP and PK time for Miller, Jones, and Robertson as well. The Red Wings want to put you on their first pair and have you mentor Seider like you did with K'Andre. They were super impressed with your work and want to give you 28 minutes a night. We aren't trying to move you, but you aren't gonna see that ice time here. Would you rather go back to your home state and play a featured role?"

Some people say yes to that.
But none of this is real or even accurate. You just make things up. Who of Panarin, Kreider, Zib, and Trouba is getting moved down in the lineup anytime soon? How about we wait for the kids you so fiercely protect to actually do something before making up a bunch of hypothetical bullshit. Or, even better, why not enjoy the season that's currently taking place and ignore the craziness in your head?
 

Beer League Sniper

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Miller, Kakko, Lafreniere, and basically any other ELC player that is an RFA in the next 2-3 years is going to be bridged. They have no arbitration rights, so their only leverage is an offer sheet. There will be cap space for longer-term deals once the flat cap ends. We also open up almost $3.5M in cap space after next season, when the Girardi/Shattenkirk/DeAngelo buyouts are gone. We'll be fine.
 

mas0764

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But none of this is real or even accurate. You just make things up. Who of Panarin, Kreider, Zib, and Trouba is getting moved down in the lineup anytime soon?

Well, I said "If the team told me I was moving down in the line up," so we can start with the fact that this is a hypothetical and is designed to address a scenario where the team chooses to go down that road, not arguing that they have already.

But to answer your question, Trouba will be surpassed relatively soon by Miller and is already behind Fox. It would not shock me if Schneider also passes Trouba within the next 18 months as Schneider already has better metrics defensively than Trouba. Trouba is better on offense but I don't worry about that so much given that I have Fox around.

Kreider has turned in a completely unlooked for 50 goal performance after a career high of 28. If he was remotely close to his career averages this conversation would be much stronger around him and if he regresses to the mean, which is likely, it will grow around him in the future.


Or, even better, why not enjoy the season that's currently taking place and ignore the craziness in your head?

Who isn't enjoying the season? Are you so narrow minded that in a roster building thread that you cannot tolerate hypothetical future moves?
 

Pawnee Rangers

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Well, I said "If the team told me I was moving down in the line up," so we can start with the fact that this is a hypothetical and is designed to address a scenario where the team chooses to go down that road, not arguing that they have already.

But to answer your question, Trouba will be surpassed relatively soon by Miller and is already behind Fox. It would not shock me if Schneider also passes Trouba within the next 18 months as Schneider already has better metrics defensively than Trouba. Trouba is better on offense but I don't worry about that so much given that I have Fox around.

Kreider has turned in a completely unlooked for 50 goal performance after a career high of 28. If he was remotely close to his career averages this conversation would be much stronger around him and if he regresses to the mean, which is likely, it will grow around him in the future.




Who isn't enjoying the season? Are you so narrow minded that in a roster building thread that you cannot tolerate hypothetical future moves?
Well fortunately for Trouba he plays a different side than Miller. And can we wait at least a year before claiming Schneider the heir apparent? What is your rush? Trouba has been terrific this year. And If Kreider regresses to 30 goals next year, he's still worth his contract and there's still no one ready to take his spot. Why do you want to make the team worse?

If anyone's being narrow minded it's you. I'm for icing the best possible lineup. All you do is talk about guys waiving NMCs, in every thread damn thread. It really must kill you to see 30 years old guys playing so well. That's the only logical explanation at this point.
 

mas0764

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Well fortunately for Trouba he plays a different side than Miller.

Yes, but the ice time discussion also revolves around ST deployment. And the value discussion revolves around whether you are harming the rest of your team by overpaying for a guy who isn't sucking up lots of defensive minutes.

Trouba is doing that (sucking up lots of minutes, getting high usage) right now. In 18 months he may not be. I'm attempting to project where we will be in the mid-term and not basing everything off where we are today.

And can we wait at least a year before claiming Schneider the heir apparent?

No, Schneider is clearly a top 4 minutes eater for us someday very soon. There's no reason to downplay that optimism. He's a very good player and will play in all situations. His defensive metrics are already better than Trouba's actually.

Same with Miller. Miller definitely passes Trouba soon (if he hasn't already). Schneider probably does, and I say probably only because I'm less sure about what Schneider can chip in offensively. Trouba has an edge there.
What is your rush? Trouba has been terrific this year.

Trouba has been good but I wouldn't say terrific. He certainly doesn't grade out as a first pair defender masquerading as a second pair guy. No, he's very much been a second pair defender.

If you think he's been more than that, that might be the disconnect. I'd be in no rush to move a guy playing like a top pair defender, but Trouba has not been doing that.

And If Kreider regresses to 30 goals next year, he's still worth his contract and there's still no one ready to take his spot. Why do you want to make the team worse?

If Kreider regresses to 30 goals, there absolutely may be someone to take his spot. Lafreniere has 17 this year and gets zero power play time while Kreider gets all of it. If Kreider regresses to 28-30 goals and Lafreniere jumps up to 20-22 while each get the same usage as this year, I think it's almost unarguable that they should switch roles actually.

If Kreider continues to produce as he is right now, that's a separate story, but if he's passed by Lafreniere (and he's already behind Panarin), the question begins to revolve around not whether you can find another 30 goal third line left wing but instead whether you can get something back for Kreider, whether you can find an 18 goal third line left wing, and whether all that in combination with the extra cap space is a better deal for the team.

Of course there are scenarios where you prefer to keep a 30 goal capable third line winger, but there are also scenarios where it makes more sense to move him (ie, you need the cap space to re-sign Lafreniere to an 8 year deal).

If anyone's being narrow minded it's you. I'm for icing the best possible lineup. All you do is talk about guys waiving NMCs, in every thread damn thread. It really must kill you to see 30 years old guys playing so well. That's the only logical explanation at this point.

I'm also for icing the best team possible. I just also extend my vision to future years when tough decisions will need to be made.

It's not really up for debate that Trouba and Kreider both probably do not see the end of their contracts here. What sets people off is that I'm suggesting they consider it a year or two earlier than they'd like to.
 

TominNC

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Can we get this thread locked until after the playoffs? It's pathetic reading fans wanting to get rid of players key to making any kind of run this year. isn't this the time to pull together and enjoy what we have right now?

After they win it all or lose in 1 2, 3 rounds we'll have a much better idea of the gamers, the playoff heroes and the guys who truly aren't ready for those roles.

LGR playoff bound.
 

duhmetreE

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I hope so. Even so there is an unacknowledged opportunity loss by employing overpaid veterans for lesser roles when they've been supplaned on the top lines/pairs, STs, etc.
It actually works in our favor if we can get some kids locked up at great values before they become to 'go-to' guys.
 

tomobson

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I think Copp will price himself out, unfortunately. Strome is the biggest weak spot on the top six and luckily he's gone after this season. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Chytil starts to phase out Strome in the playoffs if things keep going the way they are for Strome. I'd like to sign Vatrano if he's willing to give a discount but he'll probably be looking for a longer term security blanket contract at his age but we might have to bite the bullet because the RW depth is a bit suspicious at the moment. Kakko keeps getting hurt and GG doesn't seem to like Kreider or Laf at RW. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I'm still not sold on Kravtsov actually being a ranger but even then plugging him into the top six might not be too wise. I would like the insulation at RW that Vatrano could bring at a possible discount.
 

Pawnee Rangers

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Yes, but the ice time discussion also revolves around ST deployment. And the value discussion revolves around whether you are harming the rest of your team by overpaying for a guy who isn't sucking up lots of defensive minutes.

Trouba is doing that (sucking up lots of minutes, getting high usage) right now. In 18 months he may not be. I'm attempting to project where we will be in the mid-term and not basing everything off where we are today.
He get's barely 30 seconds of PP time a night. You wanna give those minutes to Schneider next year? lol, great. But right now, there's no one else to take Trouba's minutes. And there probably won't be anyone next season either. There is absolutely zero reason to touch the right side of the D until at least another two full seasons.
No, Schneider is clearly a top 4 minutes eater for us someday very soon. There's no reason to downplay that optimism. He's a very good player and will play in all situations. His defensive metrics are already better than Trouba's actually.

Same with Miller. Miller definitely passes Trouba soon (if he hasn't already). Schneider probably does, and I say probably only because I'm less sure about what Schneider can chip in offensively. Trouba has an edge there.
No he isn't. I hope he turns into one in the future, but the kid hasn't even played a full season in the NHL. He's in the perfect spot to develop his game.
Trouba has been good but I wouldn't say terrific. He certainly doesn't grade out as a first pair defender masquerading as a second pair guy. No, he's very much been a second pair defender.

If you think he's been more than that, that might be the disconnect. I'd be in no rush to move a guy playing like a top pair defender, but Trouba has not been doing that.
He's not their top RD, Fox is. And also, he has a NMC. I guarantee you he won't waive.
If Kreider regresses to 30 goals, there absolutely may be someone to take his spot. Lafreniere has 17 this year and gets zero power play time while Kreider gets all of it. If Kreider regresses to 28-30 goals and Lafreniere jumps up to 20-22 while each get the same usage as this year, I think it's almost unarguable that they should switch roles actually.

If Kreider continues to produce as he is right now, that's a separate story, but if he's passed by Lafreniere (and he's already behind Panarin), the question begins to revolve around not whether you can find another 30 goal third line left wing but instead whether you can get something back for Kreider, whether you can find an 18 goal third line left wing, and whether all that in combination with the extra cap space is a better deal for the team.
Laff and Kreider play different games and have different roles on the team. Also, NMC. And if you think Gallant or whoever is going to put him on the 3rd or 4th line just to get him to waive, you're crazy. If the day comes that Laff's play demands he plays on the first line, awesome. He or Krieder will move to the right side.
I'm also for icing the best team possible. I just also extend my vision to future years when tough decisions will need to be made.

It's not really up for debate that Trouba and Kreider both probably do not see the end of their contracts here. What sets people off is that I'm suggesting they consider it a year or two earlier than they'd like to.
Your vision needs glasses. You're talking about the two undisputed leaders of this team, earning every penny of their deals. They aren't going anywhere. They'll figure out how to pay the players who need new deals. Everyone freaked out about Kakko's next deal breaking the bank and that came and went. Good team figure this stuff out.
 

IDvsEGO

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He get's barely 30 seconds of PP time a night. You wanna give those minutes to Schneider next year? lol, great. But right now, there's no one else to take Trouba's minutes. And there probably won't be anyone next season either. There is absolutely zero reason to touch the right side of the D until at least another two full seasons.

No he isn't. I hope he turns into one in the future, but the kid hasn't even played a full season in the NHL. He's in the perfect spot to develop his game.

He's not their top RD, Fox is. And also, he has a NMC. I guarantee you he won't waive.

Laff and Kreider play different games and have different roles on the team. Also, NMC. And if you think Gallant or whoever is going to put him on the 3rd or 4th line just to get him to waive, you're crazy. If the day comes that Laff's play demands he plays on the first line, awesome. He or Krieder will move to the right side.

Your vision needs glasses. You're talking about the two undisputed leaders of this team, earning every penny of their deals. They aren't going anywhere. They'll figure out how to pay the players who need new deals. Everyone freaked out about Kakko's next deal breaking the bank and that came and went. Good team figure this stuff out.
i have no problem w what Kreider and Trouba are making this year.
I also agree that they don’t see the end of those deals on the rangers.

Trouba is not quite earning his dollar number in pure production, but probably will in the playoffs.
Kreider is out performing his contract, but there’s concern he’ll regress, and he’s blocking Laf.

Moving both will free up space to lock up guys like miller, Laf, kk and Schneider.
 
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Pawnee Rangers

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i have no problem w what Kreider and Trouba are making this year.
I also agree that they don’t see the end of those deals on the rangers.

Trouba is not quite earning his dollar number in pure production, but probably will in the playoffs.
Kreider is out performing his contract, but there’s concern he’ll regress, and he’s blocking Laf.

Moving both will free up space to lock up guys like miller, Laf, kk and Schneider.

If push comes to shove either he or Laff will move to the right side. I'm not worried at all.
 

LoveGoons

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Trouba is the best all around X-men on the team..lindy, KAM or schidy are not even closed.. but we do need Cap room so any of the vets are tradable.. but kappo, KAM, laffy we need to play hard ball with when it comes to contract..They should get paid $$$$ based on the last 2-3 year of performance
 

mas0764

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He get's barely 30 seconds of PP time a night. You wanna give those minutes to Schneider next year? lol, great. But right now, there's no one else to take Trouba's minutes. And there probably won't be anyone next season either. There is absolutely zero reason to touch the right side of the D until at least another two full seasons.

I'd be more worried about the PK time than the PP time.

As I said, Schneider is already close to Trouba in actual defending, actually. I think it's an outside possibility that Schneider can be pretty close to Trouba next year when Trouba is 30, and if not, I would definitely bet the year after when Trouba is 31.

No he isn't.

Yes, he is. Schneider is showing this year every bit of what Miller showed last year. There's no reason to think Schneider can't handle a top 4 role next year.

He's not their top RD, Fox is. And also, he has a NMC. I guarantee you he won't waive.

I understand that Fox is their top RD. My point is that if Trouba was playing at the level of a top pair D but was just assigned to the second pair, that would be one thing. He's not playing that well. He's playing at the level of a solid second pair defenseman.

He probably won't waive, I understand that, but it's tangential to the rest of the debate, which actually was, why would a player waive? If he won't waive, he won't waive. Oh well. But if he's surpassed, and there's a chance that happens sooner rather than later, and his role here is shrinking, that would be a reason to waive.

Laff and Kreider play different games and have different roles on the team. Also, NMC. And if you think Gallant or whoever is going to put him on the 3rd or 4th line just to get him to waive, you're crazy. If the day comes that Laff's play demands he plays on the first line, awesome. He or Krieder will move to the right side.

Ehm, not putting him there "just to get him to waive." I was positing that it's completely realistic that Kreider is our third best LW as soon as next season. Which is very possible. Which would then be a reason he might waive, if he's getting lesser minutes and no PP time anymore.


Your vision needs glasses. You're talking about the two undisputed leaders of this team, earning every penny of their deals. They aren't going anywhere. They'll figure out how to pay the players who need new deals. Everyone freaked out about Kakko's next deal breaking the bank and that came and went. Good team figure this stuff out.

If we can figure it out, fine. It's not like I'm opposed to having a third line LW who can score 30 goals.

The point is, though, that sooner rather than later those contracts are going to be too expensive for their roles and those players will probably end up moved, at least one of them will be.

Those players are most likely going somewhere at some point, despite your assertions. They aren't both going to see the end of their deals here. It may not be this coming offseason, it may not be the next one, but it will happen at some point. Once that has been made clear to a player there is incentive there to waive, that's all. Like, hey, next offseason when your NMC changes to a NTC and we can trade you to 15 different locations, we are gonna have to move you, you sure you don't want to consider a move now while you have some control?

That was the genesis of this debate. "Why would these players waive?" When they get passed by the kids and the writing is on the wall that they are no longer the in the top 6 of most important players, there's reason there that they MIGHT consider waiving. I'm not saying it's definitely happening tomorrow, but I absolutely could see it happening while they still have NMCs.
 
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mas0764

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i have no problem w what Kreider and Trouba are making this year.
I also agree that they don’t see the end of those deals on the rangers.

Trouba is not quite earning his dollar number in pure production, but probably will in the playoffs.
Kreider is out performing his contract, but there’s concern he’ll regress, and he’s blocking Laf.

Moving both will free up space to lock up guys like miller, Laf, kk and Schneider.

Exactly.

Clinging to these guys because they are the "leaders," of this team is missing the forest for the trees. These guys are trending down in the near-ish future and they are super expensive. And we have long term options in spades at their positions (LW, defense). Those are our two deepest organizational areas.

We aren't gonna keep paying these guys to be our third line LW or fourth best defender (ie, on the second pair but the lesser defenseman on that pair). We can't afford it with Fox getting $9m, Zibanejad getting $8m, Panarin getting $11.5, and bigger contracts on the horizon for Shesterkin, Miller, Laf, Kakko and Schneider.

The days are coming when Kreider and Trouba are no longer worth the salary for their role as the kids surpass them - or even approach them! For the dollar value of their contracts and the long term potential, you take a short term small hit for longer term production. Maybe not next year, but soon after.

It should not be some sort of sacrilege to discuss moving on a year early rather than a year late.
 

haohmaru

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That was the genesis of this debate. "Why would these players waive?" When they get passed by the kids and the writing is on the wall that they are no longer the in the top 6 of most important players, there's reason there that they MIGHT consider waiving. I'm not saying it's definitely happening tomorrow, but I absolutely could see it happening while they still have NMCs.

I think you're overlooking a part of the equation - once you ask the player to waive, the dynamic between the organization and the player dramatically changes - for the worse. There's significant risk in doing so if you expect the player to decline the ask.

As far as Schneider stepping into Trouba's role - I don't see it. Can you point to what stats you're looking at that bear this out? I mean, I understand that the intangibles don't mean a whole lot to you but I'd like to hear what you're basing that opinion on.
 
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