Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXXVI

[duhmetreE]

It's probably not even the eye test, just people regurgitating advanced stats from 4 months ago.

I wouldn't even be regurgitation of stats. If you watched this team play 2 months ago... you would think we wouldn't be that far off from that level of play... but we are.

 

[Machinehead]

Do you think anybody actually watches anyone but their own team for any kind of sample?

 

[duhmetreE]

Do you think anybody actually watches anyone but their own team for any kind of sample?

Yes.

 

[Machinehead]

Yes.

You're entitled to be incorrect.

 

[duhmetreE]

You're entitled to be incorrect.

Not everyone listens to the radio and looks at graphs like you

 

[bl02]

Winnipeg-Shesty
Islanders-Georgiev
Boston-Shesty
Carolina-Shesty
Montreal-Georgiev
Capitals-Shesty or maybe 50/50 (not sure if GG would do that)
This schedule gives Shesty decent rest while keeping him sharp for the playoffs.

 

[Machinehead]

Not everyone listens to the radio and looks at graphs like you

No, they listen to some podcast, watch the highlights on NHL Network, or (God forbid) read the main boards and form their opinion that way.

I don't know what to say if you honestly believe people are watching enough hockey to form valid opinions on more than one team. I'm sure there are some people with no jobs and no hobbies putting in 12 hours per day but that's not most opinions.

Most opinions are formed on hearsay. I prefer the graphs.

 

[duhmetreE]

No, they listen to some podcast, watch the highlights on NHL Network, or (God forbid) read the main boards and form their opinion that way.

I don't know what to say if you honestly believe people are watching enough hockey to form valid opinions on more than one team. I'm sure there are some people with no jobs and no hobbies putting in 12 hours per day but that's not most opinions.

Most opinions are formed on hearsay. I prefer the graphs.

You're projecting.

 

[Machinehead]

You're projecting.

So you're just going to double and triple down on the idea that there are people out there watching the entire league every day?

 

[MrAlmost]

I like how this is being said the only time this year it hasn't been true.

This is why I don't take people's "eye test" seriously.

But it wasn't the eye test that told us the team was only a goalie. It was advanced stats. Yes, you could see it too, but the advanced stats told us about all the xwhatevers and possession metrics were wildly in favor of our opponents.

Also, Marek is a proponent of advanced stats.

 

[Machinehead]

But it wasn't the eye test that told us the team was only a goalie. It was advanced stats. Yes, you could see it too, but the advanced stats told us about all the xwhatevers and possession metrics were wildly in favor of our opponents.

Also, Marek is a proponent of advanced stats.

Yes but that's patently false since the deadline. We've been near the top in xGF%. Also our goaltending is downright bad since the deadline and Shesterkin hasn't been good in like two months, so I love the use of the word "hot."

This is a recycled narrative that was heard somewhere and is being used past its expiration date.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Yes but that's patently false since the deadline. We've been near the top in xGF%. Also our goaltending is downright bad since the deadline and Shesterkin hasn't been good in like two months, so I love the use of the word "hot."

This is a recycled narrative that was heard somewhere and is being used past its expiration date.

If you use full season numbers we’re slowly climbing but still maybe middle pack in xgf.
If you use deadline numbers then we’re far better.
We’ve still put up some stinkers though.

 

[Machinehead]

If you use full season numbers we’re slowly climbing but still maybe middle pack in xgf.
If you use deadline numbers then we’re far better.
We’ve still put up some stinkers though.

There's a very good argument to not use full season numbers. You generally opt for the larger sample but the team changed in a meaningful way. It's not like they just got hot all of a sudden.

 

[duhmetreE]

So you're just going to double and triple down on the idea that there are people out there watching the entire league every day?

There's no doubling or tripling down. People enjoy hockey like you enjoy 90 day fiance. People also do it for a living, like the guy we're talking about.

I watch a 'good' hockey game usually every chance I get, schedule permitting. I do not go to the 'main boards' for others opinions. You do not need to watch the team every game to get a feel for them. If I only watched the Rangers pre-deadline, I would be along with the narrative of 'Shesty/Special Teams only'. If you haven't watched the Rangers post-deadline, your opinion would be wrong. The team is night and day different.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Do you think anybody actually watches anyone but their own team for any kind of sample?

Teams literally employ people to do this.

At the same time, it also takes forever for opinions to change. For instance, Carey Price was still seen as the top goalie in the league as recently as a year ago and he hasn't been good for nearly half a decade.

 

[Machinehead]

There's no doubling or tripling down. People enjoy hockey like you enjoy 90 day fiance. People also do it for a living, like the guy we're talking about.

I watch a 'good' hockey game usually every chance I get, schedule permitting. I do not go to the 'main boards' for others opinions. You do not need to watch the team every game to get a feel for them. If I only watched the Rangers pre-deadline, I would be along with the narrative of 'Shesty/Special Teams only'. If you haven't watched the Rangers post-deadline, your opinion would be wrong. The team is night and day different.

Even if you do it for a living, you're watching maybe two full games a day, on top of everything else you have to do.

Yes, you absolutely do need to watch a team every game. "I saw them the couple of times they played my team" is not a sample to base anything on.

That's not to say reputations aren't valid or that infrequent impressions are completely useless but let's call them what they are.

 

[MrAlmost]

Yes but that's patently false since the deadline. We've been near the top in xGF%. Also our goaltending is downright bad since the deadline and Shesterkin hasn't been good in like two months, so I love the use of the word "hot."

This is a recycled narrative that was heard somewhere and is being used past its expiration date.

I get that it is false since the deadline. It still has nothing to do with the "eye-test". The narrative is based on advanced stats. Old advanced stats. That doesn't make it the eye test nor does it make the eye test any less or more valid. It had nothing to do with it to being with.

EDIT: Also, it is really easy to watch 3 or 4 games a night. I am not sure about more then that, but 3 to 4 is doable. And on the weekend, with matinee games, its even easier.

 

[Machinehead]

Teams literally employ people to do this.

At the same time, it also takes forever for opinions to change. For instance, Carey Price was still seen as the top goalie in the league as recently as a year ago and he hasn't been good for nearly half a decade.

We're not talking about teams.

And even if we are talking about teams and they have departments actually doing a full "eye test" sample, they still don't know what the f*** they're doing the majority of the time.

AV watched the Rangers 385 times from the f***ing bench prior to the Ottawa series in 2017.

 

[Machinehead]

I get that it is false since the deadline. It still has nothing to do with the "eye-test". The narrative is based on advanced stats. Old advanced stats. That doesn't make it the eye test nor does it make the eye test any less or more valid. It had nothing to do with it to being with.

EDIT: Also, it is really easy to watch 3 or 4 games a night. I am not sure about more then that, but 3 to 4 is doable. And on the weekend, with matinee games, its even easier.

The point is that this was heard by the person who said it, not examined at all.

That's the basis of most "eye test" opinions and even many stats-based opinions.

 

[IDvsEGO]

There's a very good argument to not use full season numbers. You generally opt for the larger sample but the team changed in a meaningful way. It's not like they just got hot all of a sudden.

Except small sample size also has its own problems.
I don’t disagree that you can/should use the deadline but you can’t just forget what the team was pre-deadline.

 

[Machinehead]

Except small sample size also has its own problems.
I don’t disagree that you can/should use the deadline but you can’t just forget what the team was pre-deadline.

I don't disagree with that at all.

 

[duhmetreE]

But 2023-24 is when both Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller are due second contracts, the combination of which could easily account for upward of $10 million. And if pending restricted free agent Kaapo Kakko should sign on for a one-year bridge deal in the wake of the injuries that have ruined his second half, he too will be in line for a payday beginning in 2023-24.

If you think this will somehow resolve itself with Kreider, Trouba, Panarin or Zibanejad agreeing to waive his full no-move clause, I would suggest you think again

From Larry’s paywall.

Giving Kakko a 1 year would be a disaster. 3 years 2.5M

and Larry puts some water upon the 'just waive the NMC' aspect

edited- upon request

 

[mas0764]

From Larry’s paywall.

Giving Kakko a 1 year would be a disaster. 3 years 2.5M

If Larry is suggesting that we resolve it by losing out on one of our stud kids to keep a 33 year old Kreider or 31 year old Trouba then he's the one that needs to think again. Typical Dark Ages Rangers nonsense.

 

[duhmetreE]

If Larry is suggesting that we resolve it by losing out on one of our stud kids to keep a 33 year old Kreider or 31 year old Trouba then he's the one that needs to think again. Typical Dark Ages Rangers nonsense.

I have no clue how that's the way you took that.

2024-2025 is the earliest. They are not waiving their NMC or have no intention to. With the way things have shaped up, we will not need them to waive.

 

[RangerBoy]

From Larry’s paywall.

Giving Kakko a 1 year would be a disaster. 3 years 2.5M

and Larry puts some water upon the 'just waive the NMC' aspect.

Increase the font size for the bolded sentence.

If you think this will somehow resolve itself with Kreider, Trouba, Panarin or Zibanejad agreeing to waive his full no-move clause, I would suggest you think again.