Roster and Fantasy GM Thread: Pre-Draft Silly Season

[Hansen]

Ottawa is going to take gudbranson off our hands. I can feel it. They think they suck because they miss Methot and that gudbranson is the same. Hometown boy. It is too perfect.

He just needs to come back and play a couple okay games and we are good to go. Dorion to out Benning Benning for a second straight year.

Who can we get from them? Not that it matters much. Any pick or player under 23 would be terrific.

That's my gut instinct too. Could be a Ceci/Gudbranson swap for two young-ish RD that could use a change of scenery. If we're lucky and Dorion decides to give us another gift, Chlapik and a pick would be incredible. I remember that Benning was very high on Chlapik going into 2015

 

[Horse McHindu]

If we're talking Sens, what about Gudbranson for Phaneuf and a 1st?

We take Phaneuf's contract in its entirety, if the Sens also gives us their 1st rounder.

I'm just spitballing here as I haven't done the math from a cap perspective.

 

[Black Noise]

If we're talking Sens, what about Gudbranson for Phaneuf and a 1st?

We take Phaneuf's contract in its entirety, if the Sens also gives us their 1st rounder.

I'm just spitballing here as I haven't done the math from a cap perspective.

1. they already traded a protected 1st to colorado
2. ottawa sucks, wont be trading picks
3. f*** phaneuf and his garbage contract, 3 more years at 7 mil after this one

 

[Nuckles]

Erik Gudbranson for Connor Carrick?



If the Canucks are exploring options for moving Gudbranson, I wonder if sending him to Toronto for Connor Carrick would be beneficial for both teams? (or fair value). Canucks get a young RHD who is likely better than Stetcher, and had pretty reasonable Advanced Stats last year if I understand correctly.

The Leafs have some talented young LHD's that might be able to work well with Gudbranson just as Campbell/Mitchell did in Florida. The Leafs also get some more meat and depth back there.

Carrick is pretty worthless. He hasn't improved much in the past couple of years and there's a good reason why he's averaging 14 minutes per game this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he's playing in the AHL next year.

 

[timw33]

If we're talking Sens, what about Gudbranson for Phaneuf and a 1st?

We take Phaneuf's contract in its entirety, if the Sens also gives us their 1st rounder.

I'm just spitballing here as I haven't done the math from a cap perspective.

Phaneuf has 3 more years after this one at $7MM. It's not worth the 1st round pick unless it's Top-5, which I can't see them doing just to unload Phaneuf's salary.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Phaneuf has 3 more years after this one at $7MM. It's not worth the 1st round pick unless it's Top-5, which I can't see them doing just to unload Phaneuf's salary.

It is easily worth for us as that first is a big upgrade on Gudbranson's value. What is Phaneuf overpaid by, a million and a half per year? He really meets a need for us and a time line. Not sure why Ottawa does this though. Is saving money worth being worst and giving up your first at the same time.

 

[Bleach Clean]

If we're talking Sens, what about Gudbranson for Phaneuf and a 1st?

We take Phaneuf's contract in its entirety, if the Sens also gives us their 1st rounder.

I'm just spitballing here as I haven't done the math from a cap perspective.

OTT's 1st rounder is spoken for by COL for the Duchene trade.

The form of this deal seems a bit off. Holland traded 1 year of Datsyuk's contract for his late 1st rounder (18th overall). That's the exchange of salary for a pick. To take on a worse contract and give up Gudbranson (who should himself have positive value), seems a bit much. Taking on Phanuef's contract alone should do it.

That's my gut instinct too. Could be a Ceci/Gudbranson swap for two young-ish RD that could use a change of scenery. If we're lucky and Dorion decides to give us another gift, Chlapik and a pick would be incredible. I remember that Benning was very high on Chlapik going into 2015

Chlapik and a 3rd is about the absolute best I would expect Benning to yield from a Gudbranson trade. Possible, if unlikely (largely due to Benning's trading ability and his misjudgement of Gudbranson's worth).

 

[Bleach Clean]

Trade idea based on the above:

VAN:

Gagner
Gudbranson
Cassels

OTT:

Pageau
Ceci
Chlapik

It's a trade that essentially pushes the ball forward. Gagner is the oldest player in the deal. Has the same term on his deal that Pageau's does on his deal. The difference is that Pageau is better and his contract ends in RFA status. It's the same difference between Gudbranson and Ceci. Ceci's is RFA after this year. So for VAN, the trade off is about getting younger and player retention.

The reason OTT does this: Ceci is a plummeting asset in OTT. Fans and media are beginning to revile him. That makes re-signing him to a long-term deal tricky. Gudbranson may be preferred alternative. They can re-sign Gudbranson to a long-term deal and it fits their defensive scheme. And they give up depth to make it happen.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Trade idea based on the above:

VAN:

Gagner
Gudbranson
Cassels

OTT:

Pageau
Ceci
Chlapik

It's a trade that essentially pushes the ball forward. Gagner is the oldest player in the deal. Has the same term on his deal that Pageau's does on his deal. The difference is that Pageau is better and his contract ends in RFA status. It's the same difference between Gudbranson and Ceci. Ceci's is RFA after this year. So for VAN, the trade off is about getting younger and player retention.

The reason OTT does this: Ceci is a plummeting asset in OTT. Fans and media are beginning to revile him. That makes re-signing him to a long-term deal tricky. Gudbranson may be preferred alternative. They can re-sign Gudbranson to a long-term deal and it fits their defensive scheme. And they give up depth to make it happen.

There would seriously be a sticky white substance in my trousers if we landed Pageau. I absolutely love this kid and he's an excellent 3rd line center. He's also shown that he can elevate his game come crunch time, and can also score goals if given offensive opportunities (Ottawa deliberately use him in a 'defense first' role). I can see the fans giving him up though.........although their GM is dumber than a sack of shit.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The other team that makes for a pretty good destination for Gudbranson is LA. He has the skill set they want. They can fit him in cap wise as well. Don't know what they give up though? Clague and a pick works for VAN, I think, probably not for LA.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Vancouver Canucks turn heel a la 2011, and offer Patrik Laine the "Connor McDavid" offer sheet in 2019........possibly more. They become the most hated team in the NHL again because of this:

Given that the twins' contracts expire at the end of this year, do you think it's logistically possibly for us to hypothetically 'steal' away Patrik Laine from the Jets via RFA offer sheet? And yes - I'm aware of how many 1st rounders we'd have to give up. The thing with the Jets is this. I'm not sure if they'll offer Laine anywhere near what McDavid is getting due to the other cap hits on that team (i.e. Schieffle/Buff, etc. are other top players on that team, and they are in the 6-7.5 million range).

This isn't a question of how much Laine is worth. He's probably not worthy of McDavid money.....atleast as of this writing. This is about how much Laine would be worth to Vancouver. Laine-Pettersson-Boeser?

A man can dream..........a man can dream. Off the top of my head, I doubt that this is logistically possible, but the twins and Gudbranson coming off the books *is* 17.5 million. You could also move Baertschi for picks and promote Goldobin and save some money there. Edler's 6 million is also off the books, making it 23.5 million in total.

I don't think it would work, but who knows.....(impractical idea obviously).

 

[opendoor]

The form of this deal seems a bit off. Holland traded 1 year of Datsyuk's contract for his late 1st rounder (18th overall). That's the exchange of salary for a pick. To take on a worse contract and give up Gudbranson (who should himself have positive value), seems a bit much. Taking on Phanuef's contract alone should do it.

That's not how the trade went down. It was:

To ARI: 16th overall + Datsyuk

To DET: 20th overall, 53rd overall, and Vitale


The pick swap is a pretty normal trade up value of a 2nd rounder to move up 4 spots, so basically it was Vitale's $1.3M salary for Datsyuk's cap hit. Arizona saved cash while Detroit saved cap space.

 

[ginner classic]

The other team that makes for a pretty good destination for Gudbranson is LA. He has the skill set they want. They can fit him in cap wise as well. Don't know what they give up though? Clague and a pick works for VAN, I think, probably not for LA.

I don't think Clague is realistic. From LA I'd go after Rymsha and a 2nd. That is as good as we could expect from them.

Dream trade would be Gudbranson and our 2nd for either Liljegren or Foote. There would need to be an injury crisis at either team to make that happen though.

It may appear that I just contradicted myself. I think I have.

 

[MS]

Trade idea based on the above:

VAN:

Gagner
Gudbranson
Cassels

OTT:

Pageau
Ceci
Chlapik

It's a trade that essentially pushes the ball forward. Gagner is the oldest player in the deal. Has the same term on his deal that Pageau's does on his deal. The difference is that Pageau is better and his contract ends in RFA status. It's the same difference between Gudbranson and Ceci. Ceci's is RFA after this year. So for VAN, the trade off is about getting younger and player retention.

The reason OTT does this: Ceci is a plummeting asset in OTT. Fans and media are beginning to revile him. That makes re-signing him to a long-term deal tricky. Gudbranson may be preferred alternative. They can re-sign Gudbranson to a long-term deal and it fits their defensive scheme. And they give up depth to make it happen.

There can't be any way Ottawa does something like this.

Ceci is better, cheaper, and under longer team control than Gudbranson.
Pageau is better, cheaper and younger than Gagner.
Chlapik is just an absurdly better prospect than Cassels.

We could throw a (top-10 protected) #1 pick into that deal and it's still a big win for us.

 

[Bleach Clean]

There can't be any way Ottawa does something like this.

Ceci is better, cheaper, and under longer team control than Gudbranson.
Pageau is better, cheaper and younger than Gagner.
Chlapik is just an absurdly better prospect than Cassels.

We could throw a (top-10 protected) #1 pick into that deal and it's still a big win for us.

It's all based on the premise that Dorian regards Gudbranson as the best piece in the deal. Biega is probably better than Gudbranson, but he won't pull more than Gudbranson in trade.

They hate Ceci. I don't think he's long for that team.

 

[looseneditforyou]

Trade idea based on the above:

VAN:

Gagner
Gudbranson
Cassels

OTT:

Pageau
Ceci
Chlapik

It's a trade that essentially pushes the ball forward. Gagner is the oldest player in the deal. Has the same term on his deal that Pageau's does on his deal. The difference is that Pageau is better and his contract ends in RFA status. It's the same difference between Gudbranson and Ceci. Ceci's is RFA after this year. So for VAN, the trade off is about getting younger and player retention.

The reason OTT does this: Ceci is a plummeting asset in OTT. Fans and media are beginning to revile him. That makes re-signing him to a long-term deal tricky. Gudbranson may be preferred alternative. They can re-sign Gudbranson to a long-term deal and it fits their defensive scheme. And they give up depth to make it happen.

So the Canucks get the three best assets in the deal and give up a salary dump, a UFA defenceman no one seems to want much and a worthless prospect? There's a lot of hyperbole going around right now and I don't want to add to it, but this is easily one of the least realistic proposals I've ever seen.

 

[Bleach Clean]

So the Canucks get the three best assets in the deal and give up a salary dump, a UFA defenceman no one seems to want much and a worthless prospect? There's a lot of hyperbole going around right now and I don't want to add to it, but this is easily one of the least realistic proposals I've ever seen.

Before the Gudbranson trade here, would you have ever thought he would garner McCann and the 33rd pick in trade? I certainly didn't. That trade actually happened, remember? Why did Benning overvalue Gudbranson? Can another GM do the same?

That's not to say weird trades happen so all weird trade ideas are justified. It's to say that Gudbranson's value may not be what we think it is. A trade like this is predicated on the idea that there is another Jim Benning on the receiving end of the deal - One that also overvalues Gudbranson.

I know that the likelihood that Benning does not get good value for Gudbranson is high. He got taken in that trade, and it will be painfully apparent once he moves Gudbranson. That said, I have to allow for the possibility that there are GMs like Tallon and Dorian who may misjudge EG's value in turn.

I would never trade for EG, but 17 scouts at the PHI game (before EG was injured) tell me that maybe that thought is not a shared one.

 

[looseneditforyou]

Before the Gudbranson trade here, would you have ever thought he would garner McCann and the 33rd pick in trade? I certainly didn't. That trade actually happened, remember? Why did Benning overvalue Gudbranson? Can another GM do the same?

That's not to say weird trades happen so all weird trade ideas are justified. It's to say that Gudbranson's value may not be what we think it is. A trade like this is predicated on the idea that there is another Jim Benning on the receiving end of the deal - One that also overvalues Gudbranson.

I know that the likelihood that Benning does not get good value for Gudbranson is high. He got taken in that trade, and it will be painfully apparent once he moves Gudbranson. That said, I have to allow for the possibility that there are GMs like Tallon and Dorian who may misjudge EG's value in turn.

I would never trade for EG, but 17 scouts at the PHI game (before EG was injured) tell me that maybe that thought is not a shared one.

This is all backpedalling, tangentially related nonsense.

 

[Bleach Clean]

This is all backpedalling, tangentially related nonsense.

Backpedalling in what sense? Here's what I said to MS, before your post:

"Deal is based on the premise that Dorian regards Gudbranson as the best player in the deal".

 

[looseneditforyou]

Backpedalling in what sense? Here's what I said to MS, before your post:

"Deal is based on the premise that Dorian regards Gudbranson as the best player in the deal".

Because most people would regard that premise as extremely unlikely and you've provided no evidence it may be true. and you've included multiple assets coming back that Dorion would probably value individually over Gudbranson, and included a pure cap dump making 3.1 million going the other way, and then thrown in a worthless prospect who can't play in the NHL to provide a superficial numerical appearance of evenness.

 

[MS]

It's all based on the premise that Dorian regards Gudbranson as the best piece in the deal. Biega is probably better than Gudbranson, but he won't pull more than Gudbranson in trade.

They hate Ceci. I don't think he's long for that team.

There's no way they like him that much.

Gagner has negative value and Cassels has zero value so it's basically that package for Gudbranson. Two solid young NHLers + a top prospect (probably #3 or #4 in their system) is arguably more than we paid for Gudbranson in the first place.

 

[Bleach Clean]

There's no way they like him that much.

Gagner has negative value and Cassels has zero value so it's basically that package for Gudbranson. Two solid young NHLers + a top prospect (probably #3 or #4 in their system) is arguably more than we paid for Gudbranson in the first place.

There's nothing coming from OTT that I would place above McCann + 33rd. We clearly disagree there.

This is not about what you or I think of Gudbranson. If we go by that, no GM should take him. He's an overpaid bottom pair dman - what's the need? A bottom pairing Dman can be had on waivers. Or, a mid-draft pick if a GM is being generous...

For EG, we have trade markers like McCann + 33rd and Demers. That's above the mid-draft pick rate, IMO. Is Demers a better Dman than Ceci in your opinion? If he is, then the argument is that Ceci is the better asset despite being the inferior Dman. If Demers is not better, then I can see why you think EG doesn't garner anything close in value.

Because most people would regard that premise as extremely unlikely and you've provided no evidence it may be true. and you've included multiple assets coming back that Dorion would probably value individually over Gudbranson, and included a pure cap dump making 3.1 million going the other way, and then thrown in a worthless prospect who can't play in the NHL to provide a superficial numerical appearance of evenness.

Wait, how are you supposing that Dorion would "probably value individually" each asset over Gudbranson? Evidence? What is your evidence that Gagner is viewed as a "pure cap dump" around the league?

Let's be clear here: You and I know that Gudbranson and Gagner suck. That isn't under debate. The premise is based upon what other GMs may or may not think about these players. In a league where Benning is a GM, there exists a Tallon, a Dorion, a Chiarelli etc... In this same league, Benning gave up McCann and the 33rd for Gudbranson (about a year ago), and was lauded for it by a number of media sources at the time (I believe sportsnet in particular). In this same league, your contention is that another GM cannot see Gudbranson as anything other than an overpaid bottom pairing Dman? C'mon. Seriously? Now that's hyperbole.

- OTT scouts were at 2 games last week (Dhaliwal Twitter). The other team was BUF.
- Dorion is speculated to be making big changes (Dreger).
- OTT was one of the 17 teams represented by a scout at the PHI game (Twitter).
- OTT has shown recent interest in Gudbranson (Renaud Lavoie, TSN by way of the Jeff Blair show)
- OTT's cap structure would allow for an addition on defense.

I don't think OTT seriously considers EG unless they are willing to move on from Ceci. Since they are proven to have interest, I have to think Ceci is on the outs. That's why I think they may value EG more. That's my evidence. Over to you.

 

[looseneditforyou]

There's nothing coming from OTT that I would place above McCann + 33rd. We clearly disagree there.

This is not about what you or I think of Gudbranson. If we go by that, no GM should take him. He's an overpaid bottom pair dman - what's the need? A bottom pairing Dman can be had on waivers. Or, a mid-draft pick if a GM is being generous...

For EG, we have trade markers like McCann + 33rd and Demers. That's above the mid-draft pick rate, IMO. Is Demers a better Dman than Ceci in your opinion? If he is, then the argument is that Ceci is the better asset despite being the inferior Dman. If Demers is not better, then I can see why you think EG doesn't garner anything close in value.





Wait, how are you supposing that Dorion would "probably value individually" each asset over Gudbranson? Evidence? What is your evidence that Gagner is viewed as a "pure cap dump" around the league?

Let's be clear here: You and I know that Gudbranson and Gagner suck. That isn't under debate. The premise is based upon what other GMs may or may not think about these players. In a league where Benning is a GM, there exists a Tallon, a Dorion, a Chiarelli etc... In this same league, Benning gave up McCann and the 33rd for Gudbranson (about a year ago), and was lauded for it by a number of media sources at the time (I believe sportsnet in particular). In this same league, your contention is that another GM cannot see Gudbranson as anything other than an overpaid bottom pairing Dman? C'mon. Seriously? Now that's hyperbole.

- OTT scouts were at 2 games last week (Dhaliwal Twitter). The other team was BUF.
- Dorion is speculated to be making big changes (Dreger).
- OTT was one of the 17 teams represented by a scout at the PHI game (Twitter).
- OTT has shown recent interest in Gudbranson (Renaud Lavoie, TSN by way of the Jeff Blair show)
- OTT's cap structure would allow for an addition on defense.

I don't think OTT seriously considers EG unless they are willing to move on from Ceci. Since they are proven to have interest, I have to think Ceci is on the outs. That's why I think they may value EG more. That's my evidence. Over to you.

I'm presuming Dorion values each individual piece in the trade more highly than Gudbranson because most reasonable people would and you've provided no evidence Dorion feels differently. Gagner is making 3.1 million for nearly 3 more years, is poor defensively and has 4 goals and is a -17 in 34 games. He's a cap dump. You've avoiding acknowledging this by asking me to conclusively prove it, which you're aware is impossible. Each player in the trade coming to Vancouver is younger, statistically superior, and under more team control. In all three cases these differences aren't minor, they're dramatic. I never claimed other GMs cannot see Gudbranson as anything other than an overpaid bottom-pairing defenceman, nor did I dispute Ottawa might be interested in trading for him -- you've set these up as straw men. What I am disputing is that that particular package you've proposed is something Ottawa would be willing to do, which you've provided no reasonable rationale for and which every single person who has responded to you agrees is totally unrealistic.

 

[Verviticus]

It's all based on the premise that Dorian regards Gudbranson as the best piece in the deal. Biega is probably better than Gudbranson, but he won't pull more than Gudbranson in trade.

They hate Ceci. I don't think he's long for that team.

ceci is an exceptionally shitty defenceman. ill take gudbranson over him, at least gudbranson is handsome

edit: hmm ceci's pretty handsome as well. keep them both away i guess

 

[Bleach Clean]

I'm presuming Dorion values each individual piece in the trade more highly than Gudbranson because most reasonable people would and you've provided no evidence Dorion feels differently.

I have to prove Dorion's specific evaluation of each player... Where are you getting that I have to do this, or if this information is even available?

Dorion's interest in Gudbranson alone tells us a few things:

1) He's foolish enough to want to pay for a bottom pairing dman on a 3.5m AAV salary.

2) He's looking to add to his defense on the right side.

3) That right side help may involve supplementing Karlsson+Ceci, or it may be to replace Ceci.

It's up to you to determine if that's reasonable on the part of Dorion.

Gagner is making 3.1 million for nearly 3 more years, is poor defensively and has 4 goals and is a -17 in 34 games. He's a cap dump. You've avoiding acknowledging this by asking me to conclusively prove it, which you're aware is impossible.

You're missing the point. My acknowledgement of Gagner's contract being a cap dump changes nothing. It's about what we can suppose his contract will be viewed as around the league. Mathieu Perrault in WPG puts up similar offense, finished -11 in his last 2 years, and was just re-signed to a 4.125m AAV contract for 4 years. Do you think he's viewed as a cap dump around the league?

Gagner's defense is worse, but is it so much worse so as to render his contract a cap dump? I don't know. If you're comfortable making that judgement, feel free.

Each player in the trade coming to Vancouver is younger, statistically superior, and under more team control. In all three cases these differences aren't minor, they're dramatic. I never claimed other GMs cannot see Gudbranson as anything other than an overpaid bottom-pairing defenceman, nor did I dispute Ottawa might be interested in trading for him -- you've set these up as straw men. What I am disputing is that that particular package you've proposed is something Ottawa would be willing to do, which you've provided no reasonable rationale for and which every single person who has responded to you agrees is totally unrealistic.

Then change the package? I'm not married to it. It's an armchair thread after all.

I think that package is realistic if Dorion views Gudbranson as the best player in the deal. To me, that's Dorion's call between Gudbranson vs. Pageau. Ceci is not appreciably better than Gudbranson (MS and I disagree there). He's more or less there to have the money line up. Pageau and Chlapik are the reasons to do the deal.

If you look up, poster Hansen already speculates about Ceci being a supposed return, as well as Chlapik and a pick.

This actually comes down to how far you think Gudbranson has sank from the intitial valuation of a McCann and the 33rd pick -- to Demers -- to now. What does Demers represent to you? To me, he's a top4 Dman that is older, but is on a decent deal. If its the same for you: Does Pageau garner a top4 RHD? Does Chlapik? That's the rationale I'm following here. You're welcome to add your rationale to this.