Blue Jays Discussion: RIP Roy Halladay (1977-2017)

[zeke]

Its simple opportunity cost. Though some teams can overcome it (i.e. the Dodgers with Adrian Gonzalez), it may cost others (i.e. the Angels with Albert Pujols). Just to be clear "dead money" to me is not only players still being paid when they're off the roster (i.e. Crawford with LA), but overpriced veterans contributing well below their price tag.

I mean yes there's opportunity cost. obviously not getting good value for your money hurts.

But at the same time I think the opportunity cost of spending midmarket money on lesser players is severly underrated. For instance, the opportunity cost of wasting money on Morales and Pearce last year - not only their negative value, but the clogging of the bottom of the roster which limited our ability to get more value from cheaper players. i.e. with some luck we could have found some cheapo kid or pickup to give us 1war in those spots for minimum. So in some ways the opportunity cost of wasting $20m on morales/Pearce is even worse than having similar dead money at the top of the payroll.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I mean yes there's opportunity cost. obviously not getting good value for your money hurts.

But at the same time I think the opportunity cost of spending midmarket money on lesser players is severly underrated. For instance, the opportunity cost of wasting money on Morales and Pearce last year - not only their negative value, but the clogging of the bottom of the roster which limited our ability to get more value from cheaper players. i.e. with some luck we could have found some cheapo kid or pickup to give us 1war in those spots for minimum. So in some ways the opportunity cost of wasting $20m on morales/Pearce is even worse than having similar dead money at the top of the payroll.

I don't disagree with that at all, at least in the case of Morales. (Pearce, given the term and price tag, didn't bother me at the time, nor does it now.) I'll also say the Jays in 2017 did not have those young players for various reasons, but the logic remains sound. Say, as an example, Rowdy comes into 2018, and rakes in ST\April\May, but is blocked by Morales. That would very much so annoy me. The same would be said for Alford\Teoscar come into 2018 and both rake, but Dexter Fowler is sitting in LF and begins declining.

 

[BlueForever75]

Its simple opportunity cost. Though some teams can overcome it (i.e. the Dodgers with Adrian Gonzalez), it may cost others (i.e. the Angels with Albert Pujols). Just to be clear "dead money" to me is not only players still being paid when they're off the roster (i.e. Crawford with LA), but overpriced veterans contributing well below their price tag.



(sigh) Ok man. Yelich + Prado for that package is realistic. You win.

Not here to win, just here to discuss. Don't see how a team that is in dire straights for cash have the ability to request top tier prospects when all they have is overpaid players not worth much. Other then Stanton I cant see Bichette and/or Guerrero being given up in any deal with the Marlins. Any other prospects cool, but not those two.

 

[Discoverer]

Don't see how a team that is in dire straights for cash have the ability to request top tier prospects when all they have is overpaid players not worth much.

What information did you use to form this opinion? Because Yelich, as has been pointed out time and time again, is one of the most valuable players in baseball.

 

[zeke]

I don't disagree with that at all, at least in the case of Morales. (Pearce, given the term and price tag, didn't bother me at the time, nor does it now.) I'll also say the Jays in 2017 did not have those young players for various reasons, but the logic remains sound. Say, as an example, Rowdy comes into 2018, and rakes in ST\April\May, but is blocked by Morales. That would very much so annoy me. The same would be said for Alford\Teoscar come into 2018 and both rake, but Dexter Fowler is sitting in LF and begins declining.

but even with fowler or cain in the OF, we have pillar, teoscar, alford, pompey battling for 3 spots. If all 4 are good rigth away, sure, then maybe we waste some value but that's unlikely. And even then, fowler's bat is likely good enough to play at DH for a bit anyways.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

but even with fowler or cain in the OF, we have pillar, teoscar, alford, pompey battling for 3 spots. If all 4 are good rigth away, sure, then maybe we waste some value but that's unlikely. And even then, fowler's bat is likely good enough to play at DH for a bit anyways.

I actually don't have a problem with that idea at all. I like the idea of targeting Cain specifically because they can reasonably expect to be able to fill the other full time OF and the fourth OF spots cheaply over the length of a potential Cain contract (though I still think you need to be more careful about just throwing an extra few million and another year or two at a player).

Overpaying Fowler last year isn't really the same situation, though, since the Jays didn't have the likes of Teoscar (obviously) and Alford (who wasn't ready) available to step in and provide cheap value. Their only cheap internal option was basically praying that Pompey could stay healthy and have a bounceback season. If they added Fowler, they still would have been short a major league OF.

 

[BlueForever75]

What information did you use to form this opinion? Because Yelich, as has been pointed out time and time again, is one of the most valuable players in baseball.

Listened to Mr. Morosi this morning speaking on the interest the Jays have in Cain. How it is a legit inquiry and possible to happen. He then went on to say that this would be only the first shoe to drop. He stated that the Jays like we all know are looking for a more potent bat in a utility role but may not want to pony up dollars and term for a guy like Nunez. So the buy-low option he provided was Prado from the Marlins. But because of the dollars he carries on his contract, he stated the Marlins may be inclined to include a Yelich in the deal. He stated with the abundance of good prospects that may have to be left unprotected in rule 5 for the Jays. He felt that a package surrounding those prospects and Pillar would be enough to get it done for Prado and Yelich.

I thought it made sense. And filled the Jays needs

 

[BlueForever75]

but even with fowler or cain in the OF, we have pillar, teoscar, alford, pompey battling for 3 spots. If all 4 are good rigth away, sure, then maybe we waste some value but that's unlikely. And even then, fowler's bat is likely good enough to play at DH for a bit anyways.

Trade Pillar

 

[Discoverer]

I thought it made sense. And filled the Jays needs

It does all that and more for the Jays. For the Marlins, it clears a little money by dumping one of the few extremely valuable assets they have.

Again, the only way it makes sense for the Marlins to make that deal is if they're absolutely desperate to clear some money and don't care about the assets coming back. That's horrible value for Yelich, even with Prado included.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

but even with fowler or cain in the OF, we have pillar, teoscar, alford, pompey battling for 3 spots. If all 4 are good rigth away, sure, then maybe we waste some value but that's unlikely. And even then, fowler's bat is likely good enough to play at DH for a bit anyways.

Fair enough, though a 31 year old Dexter Fowler's bat is good enough to play at DH; we have no idea what a 34 year old Fowler's bat will play as. Again, my issues with Fowler (and now Cain) have little to do with age 32/33 seasons, its the age 34/35/36 seasons that I'm preoccupied with. Moreso when I consider the tickets of Stroman\Sanchez\Osuna\Travis 2019/2020.

People who would like to have Lorenzo Cain need to realize that he likely has ~1.5 seasons left in CF (if he remains injury free), then he's basically 2017 Jason Heyward. If the contract is 3 years @ $17MM, then sign me up. Four years or more, and it just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

It does all that and more for the Jays. For the Marlins, it clears a little money by dumping one of the few extremely valuable assets they have.

Again, the only way it makes sense for the Marlins to make that deal is if they're absolutely desperate to clear some money and don't care about the assets coming back. That's horrible value for Yelich, even with Prado included.

If they're truly desperate to clear money, then they can sell low on Dee Gordon, Ziegler, Tazawa, and Volquez (in addition to Stanton).

They're not trading their best assets (Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto) under market because fans of other franchises simply want them to.

 

[Discoverer]

If they're truly desperate to clear money, then they can sell low on Dee Gordon, Ziegler, Tazawa, and Volquez (in addition to Stanton).

They're not trading their best assets (Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto) under market because fans of other franchises simply want them to.

But Morosi said!

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Dave Cameron did his chat drunk today.

Dave Cameron
12:31
I'd trade Donaldson, try to get a decent MLB player back (PIscotty or Grichuk, someone like that), re-allocate Donaldson's money to some FAs, and hope Vlad Jr was ready by June.

Dave Cameron
1:03
I didn't say you trade Donaldson for PIscotty 1-1. I said you try to get a guy like that in the trade.

 

[zeke]

Fair enough, though a 31 year old Dexter Fowler's bat is good enough to play at DH; we have no idea what a 34 year old Fowler's bat will play as. Again, my issues with Fowler (and now Cain) have little to do with age 32/33 seasons, its the age 34/35/36 seasons that I'm preoccupied with. Moreso when I consider the tickets of Stroman\Sanchez\Osuna\Travis 2019/2020.

People who would like to have Lorenzo Cain need to realize that he likely has ~1.5 seasons left in CF (if he remains injury free), then he's basically 2017 Jason Heyward. If the contract is 3 years @ $17MM, then sign me up. Four years or more, and it just doesn't make sense to me.

I don't think he'd even have 1.5 seasons in CF for us. I think he'd immediately go to RF, and likely be a plus defender there for most of his contract.

 

[zeke]

Dave Cameron did his chat drunk today.

Dave Cameron
12:31
I'd trade Donaldson, try to get a decent MLB player back (PIscotty or Grichuk, someone like that), re-allocate Donaldson's money to some FAs, and hope Vlad Jr was ready by June.

Dave Cameron
1:03
I didn't say you trade Donaldson for PIscotty 1-1. I said you try to get a guy like that in the trade.

The idea of trading Donaldson for a mediocre vet piece instead of for all high end young talent is pretty dang annoying.

 

[phillipmike]

The idea of trading Donaldson for a mediocre vet piece instead of for all high end young talent is pretty dang annoying.

Its a stupid idea. Like the Green for Mondesi trade though Piscostty is much younger than Mondesi was. Makes no sense to trade 1 year of a 6-7 WAR player for 3 years of a player who has average 1.5 WAR per season. Donaldson could double Piscotty's production in 1 season vs 3 years of control you would have for Piscotty.

The Donaldson options should be;

1. Extension
2. Go into the season with him and trade him at the deadline if you are out of contention
3. Or trade him now if you are getting a great offer of young talent... not just "younger" talent

 

[phillipmike]

If they're truly desperate to clear money, then they can sell low on Dee Gordon, Ziegler, Tazawa, and Volquez (in addition to Stanton).

They're not trading their best assets (Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto) under market because fans of other franchises simply want them to.

Unless they are getting ridiculous offers for Yelich, Ozuna etc. then the Marlins should do exactly this ^.

Gordon, Prato, Volquez, Ziegler and Tazawa are making 53M next season. Move them and take the best offer for Stanton and you opened up close to 80M right there... maybe closer to 60M if you have to retain.

 

[masarume]

Apologies in advance if any of my thoughts/opinions seem rudimentary.
I've got several questions and a few comments on the state of the Jays.

1) What did management hope to achieve last year?
I hate to monday morning quarterback this - but I will anyways. Based on the off season moves, why were people surprised that the Jays fell as hard as they did? Repeating 2016's health was going to require a lot of luck. Internal growth seemed optimistic as we didn't have any bluechip guys coming out of the minors. To me, I think new management wasn't a fan of the way AA blew away his chips in 2015. So they want to restock and still live off the residual goodwill. Tread water till the deadline and if the team was in the hunt - make some mid level moves. Maybe I'm missing something?

2) What does management hope to achieve this year?
I really hope there's clear direction. Whether it's signing a Cain or trading guys that wont be around for our next contention cycle. I strongly dislike a lack of direction.
For all the Donaldson talk, I think the optimal time to trade him would've been after the 2016 playoff run when he was arguably our best player. Right now would be cents on the dollar.

3) What do you guys think our roster would look like at the start of the 2019 season (not the coming year, but the year after)?

 

[Discoverer]

The idea of trading Donaldson for a mediocre vet piece instead of for all high end young talent is pretty dang annoying.

Yep. Someone like Piscotty or Grichuk makes sense for the Jays as a secondary piece in a Donaldson trade. An OF with years of control who you can plug into the lineup for the next few years and who's been a relatively productive major leaguer as recently as 2016 is an asset worth acquiring any day. But, when you're trading for a superstar, it's the kind of asset you add on to a couple of top prospects to get a deal done, not the one you lead with.

 

[TF97]

I truly am having trouble how some can think that the Marlins will deal their most valuable assets - Yelich, Realmuto, and Ozuna, without receiving tier 1 prospects in return. As DJQ mentioned, if the Marlins genuinely want to clear salary, they have tons of veterans they can offload and then there’s Stanton.

They will not move Yelich (who is on a very team friendly deal) simply because they have a bare prospect pool and want to clear money. It would be like the Blue Jays trading Stroman (given he has about $44M left on his deal) for middle tier prospects simply because they want to clear salary despite having veterans like Estrada, Happ, Martin, etc on the roster who can be dealt while still maintaining a semi-bright future.

As for the Marlins wanting Pillar, I can’t see much interest there, nor do I think Pillar would generate a ton of interest on the market either. He’s approaching that point in his career where his style of play should begin to deteriorate and his value will plummet. Players that rely heavily on elite defense and speed don’t age well, and I would imagine most teams realize that as well. Pillar has more value to Toronto than he does on the trade market. I would keep him in CF even if someone like Cain is brought in.

 

[Discoverer]

I truly am having trouble how some can think that the Marlins will deal their most valuable assets - Yelich, Realmuto, and Ozuna, without receiving tier 1 prospects in return. As DJQ mentioned, if the Marlins genuinely want to clear salary, they have tons of veterans they can offload and then there’s Stanton.

They will not move Yelich (who is on a very team friendly deal) simply because they have a bare prospect pool and want to clear money. It would be like the Blue Jays trading Stroman (given he has about $44M left on his deal) for middle tier prospects simply because they want to clear salary despite having veterans like Estrada, Happ, Martin, etc on the roster who can be dealt while still maintaining a semi-bright future.

As for the Marlins wanting Pillar, I can’t see much interest there, nor do I think Pillar would generate a ton of interest on the market either. He’s approaching that point in his career where his style of play should begin to deteriorate and his value will plummet. Players that rely heavily on elite defense and speed don’t age well, and I would imagine most teams realize that as well. Pillar has more value to Toronto than he does on the trade market. I would keep him in CF even if someone like Cain is brought in.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure only one person thought that was remotely close to a realistic proposal.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Cain would cost the Blue Jays their second-round pick in 2018 while reducing their international spending limit by $500,000 next year. He’s 31, well-positioned for a four- or five-year deal. At the same time, he creates value at the plate, in the field and on the bases. There’s no doubt that he’s one of the best players available this off-season.

(Along those lines, Cain’s former teammate Jarrod Dyson would also be an intriguing fit in Toronto. The free agent might not have as much offensive upside as Cain, but he gets on base at a reasonable clip and won’t cost nearly as much.)

Among the players on the Blue Jays’ radar: Robbie Ross, the longtime Red Sox left-hander who recently became a free agent. Elbow and back issues limited Ross to eight appearances in 2017, but he’s expected to be healthy for the 2018 season and will likely be available on a one-year deal.

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – The less stringent rules governing compensation for free agents who receive qualifying offers is, at minimum, making the Toronto Blue Jays more open to the idea of pursuing such a player.

As a team under Major League Baseball’s luxury tax not receiving revenue-sharing money, signing one of the nine qualified players would cost them their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 from their international bonus pool.

That’s far less significant than the loss of a first-round pick under the old system, and is why general manager Ross Atkins said Wednesday, “the impact is certainly not as big.”

“I think that it’s less significant of an issue but it’s definitely something you have to factor in,” he added. “It’s not something that would deter us.”

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Seems like there is too much risk involved in getting someone like Cain. I don't really see why that's the biggest priority anyways. I would aim for an infielder first and foremost, then look at a quality starter, before even considering anything major in the outfield. The Jays have talent and depth back there, it's just riding on guys like Alford and Hernandez with Fields, Smith Jr., Pearce, Carrera and Pompey as insurance. Even if you make a move, how can you justify making it more than a year or two, considering those guys could definitely be ready in a year or two if they aren't now.

The long term $$ and contract length + the pick + the international pool money seems a bit much for a 31 year old who could fall off a cliff half way through his contract. I'm all for the Jays spending money to get better, but you still need to be smart with it.