Blue Jays Discussion: RIP Roy Halladay (1977-2017)

[SeaOfBlue]

Anthony Alford is Lorenzo Cain version 2.0

I'm not that interested in Cain unless it's short term (maximum of 3 years). Cain is going to get paid for what he's done and not based on his future value. Id rather role the dice with a cheaper option and hope Alford takes over mid season and runs with it.

I'm almost under the impression that unless there is a good deal to be had, we just roll with what we have. Pillar and Hernandez + a competition between Pearce, Pompey, Smith Jr., Carrera (who I think could be dealt), Fields, Alford and whoever else for the bench job and starting LF job. Could then spend the money in another spot, like a middle infielder. We don't have much there.

 

[The Nemesis]

Like that's going to matter to anyone. The try hards will just come in here and whine and ***** about how the jays weren't willing to pay up like that guy who just said it's all about the money but didn't bother responding when he was told otherwise, probably because he was too busy whining about management some more and in some argument about other teams and what they did, I didn't exactly read too much of it, forgive me if I'm wrong.

Sorry, you'e gonna have to repeat that. I was too busy cutting myself with the sharpened brim of a Braves cap. Because I have a problem and the only solution is foolishly throwing money at names I recognize regardless of whether it makes sense. That or making presumptuous flaming hot takes about management.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets have checked in on free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, according to a report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The Royals are monitoring the market for their long-time center fielder as well, though they’re preparing to move on to other alternatives.

“We’ll see where the market is and where it goes,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said Tuesday. “It’s just hard to predict. It really is.”

The Royals extended a one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer to Cain earlier this month. He is expected to turn down the offer before this week’s deadline and seek a multiyear deal. He will likely draw interest from a handful of clubs looking for an outfield upgrade.

Cain is expected to command a deal that could approach four seasons, and the Royals will likely be hesitant to sign another outfielder in his early 30s after watching Alex Gordon decline over the last two years. In addition, the Royals are set to enter a rebuilding phase that could limit the need for an outfielder on a deal that could last just three to four seasons.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Not a huge fan of a Lorenzo Cain at 32 signing (for essentially the exact same reason I was not a fan of a potential Fowler signing), though if they were willing to go where they were on Fowler, so it makes sense that they'd be interested.

 

[zeke]

a jays rumour attaching us to an actually good free agent and this board ain't interested. go figure.

 

[Anthrax442]

Not sure it's a rumor. Article says "checked in'. I am sure as a part of their due diligence they have touched base on a 100 players.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I like the thought of Cain, I cringe at a 4-5 year deal for a 32 year old

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I've compiled a list of guys that interest me outside of free agency based on team needs (1. OF, 2. MI quality depth). The players are differing degrees of available for various reasons, and could be pretty valuable if deployed correctly. You could likely acquire each without touching your top ~8 prospects (Guerrero, Bichette, Alford, Pearson, Tesocar, Jansen, Borucki, Warmoth).

Major League Leaderboards » 2017 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

(In order of position \ most-to-least desirable)

1. Tyler Naquin (CF\RF\LF): 27 years old in 2018, former Shapiro draft pick\prospect. Has hit throughout the minors, and did so in the majors in 2016. Is blocked by Bradley Zimmer long-term in CF, and by Chisenhall\Almonte\Brantley\Kipnis\Jackson if all are kept. Can likely be had for minimal cost. Best served in LF as a strong-side platoon. Big power potential if he goes to the JD Martinez “F-groundballs” school. Under team control through 2022.
2. David Dahl (LF\CF\RF): 24 year old in 2018, and likely the most difficult to acquire on this list. Back issues torpedoed his 2017 season, but as a former first round pick, Colorado is likely to want to hold on him. Has the skills to be an impact hitter, and borderline five tool player. If they’re inclined to keep him, then Raimel Tapia (speed-contact-defense type) would be a target to pivot to.
3. Andrew Toles (LF\CF\RF): 26 years old in 2018. Speed + Contact guy. Left baseball for several years after having issues, but came back and raked in 2016. Hurt his knee in 2017, but is expected to be ready for opening day. Blocked by Chris Taylor\Puig\Kike Hernandez\Pederson and is behind Verdugo on the Dodger’s depth chart. Under team control through 2022.
4. Jeremy Hazelbaker (LF\CF\RF): 31 years old in 2018, long-time minor league power-speed combo type. Was a minor league free agent at 28, and will be so again this offseason. The easiest on the list to acquire.

1. Tommy La Stella (IF): 29 years old in 2019. Utility infielder with a good walk-rate, and contact skills. Perpetually blocked by the Cubs young stars, and moreso now after 2017 with the emergence of Ian Happ. Arb eligible through 2020.
2. Derek Dietrich (3B\2B\1B\LF): 29 in 2018, has played the Ben Zobrist role for the Marlins over the past several seasons. His defense is mediocre at each of the positions he plays, so the flexibility he provides comes with a caveat. Decent at getting on-base, though its Guyer-like (HBP) in nature. Arb eligible through 2020.
3. Wilmer Flores (3B\1B\2B\SS): 27 in 2018, long time Mets utility infielder. Has increased his flyballs\iso each year in the majors. Part time\platoon bat with so-so defense. The most expensive player on this list, arb-2 in 2018.

 

[Discoverer]

a jays rumour attaching us to an actually good free agent and this board ain't interested. go figure.

As usual, people are interested at a certain cost/term.

As usual, zeke ignores cost/term and instead focuses on "Just sign some big name players!"

 

[BlueForever75]

Doesn't surprise me that we will be interested in Cain considering we went down to the wire for Fowler a similar player last off season.

That being said, I would love the acquisition and it would instantly make us better and open up other avenues to get other things done that we need. If they can pull this off, I think it would be step 1 to further moves. One I would love to see done is a trade with the Marlins. They want to unload salary, may be willing eat some of the contracts going the other way to get a deal done. The jays have many prospects that they are going to have to expose in rule 5 that would help build back up the Marlins system at a lower cost as Jeter wants to do.

So my proposal is to go big with them as we did when we traded for Reyes, Buerhle etc... how about this trade:

Pillar
Carerra
Pompey
Romano
Case

for

Prado
Yelich

Hear me out.... in trading Prado the Marlins rid themselves of salary. To sweeten the pot, Yelich is added who has a long term contract but is young and fills our RF need. We need to rid ourselves of Pillar of the main roster but we have replaced him with the signing of Cain which is an upgrade. Pompey, Romano and Case are all three prospects that in our system have been leapfrogged but in the Marlins system would become viable option down the road. Carerra is a throw in and expendable from a Jays perspective with Hernandez, Cain and Yelich as your everyday OF and Alford/Ramirez waiting in the wings.

In Prado you fill the void of versatility, he can play 3B, 2B and corner OF. He had a down season last season but is a great utility option to cover Donaldson, Travis and 4th OF spot. And his bat was not the greatest last season but averages over his career present an improvement to the team. Ultimately if the season doesn't work out, you flip him at deadline.

What you think?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Christian Yelich costs you Guerrero+Pearson. Adding Prado's salary dump drops the price to Bichette+Pearson.

 

[zeke]

As usual, people are interested at a certain cost/term.

As usual, zeke ignores cost/term and instead focuses on "Just sign some big name players!"

nothing to do with name, everything to do with quality.

 

[BlueForever75]

Christian Yelich costs you Guerrero+Pearson. Adding Prado's salary dump drops the price to Bichette+Pearson.

No chance in hell that Yelich costs you tier 1 prospects. Listen in the end, the Marlins prospect capital is next to nothing. They have none. Drafted poorly and traded away a lot. Prado is strictly salary dump and Yelich is owed close to 48 million over the next few years.

Pillar isn't garbage but is cheaper, better defensively then anything coming back to the Jays. Pompey is not expensive, young with huge risk/reward. After that, the Marlins can have their pick of 2 prospects from Case, Jansen, Tellez, Greene, McGuire, Pentacost and Romano. These are all bubble prospects to be protected by the Jays for the Rule 5 that are all better then most of the prospects the Marlins have in their organization currently. Cost of dumping salary is taking on less in prospects. And don't forget Pillar isn't garbage, he's not a throw in.

 

[Discoverer]

nothing to do with name, everything to do with quality.

Fair enough. It would probably still be a good idea to put at least some consideration into the amount of money/term you would be willing to pay to acquire that player.

I like Lorenzo Cain a lot, and I think it would be a smart acquisition for the Jays. I would even be comfortable with the 4/68 prediction on Fangraphs. But once you start going beyond four years or ramping it up past $80 million or so, you would be stupid not to step back and look elsewhere, even if that means not getting the best player available.

What's the biggest contract you would be happy giving Cain?

 

[Discoverer]

No chance in hell that Yelich costs you tier 1 prospects. Listen in the end, the Marlins prospect capital is next to nothing. They have none. Drafted poorly and traded away a lot. Prado is strictly salary dump and Yelich is owed close to 48 million over the next few years.

Pillar isn't garbage but is cheaper, better defensively then anything coming back to the Jays. Pompey is not expensive, young with huge risk/reward. After that, the Marlins can have their pick of 2 prospects from Case, Jansen, Tellez, Greene, McGuire, Pentacost and Romano. These are all bubble prospects to be protected by the Jays for the Rule 5 that are all better then most of the prospects the Marlins have in their organization currently. Cost of dumping salary is taking on less in prospects. And don't forget Pillar isn't garbage, he's not a throw in.

Yelich would absolutely cost that type of prospect to acquire, unless the Marlins go insane like Billy Beane did when he traded Donaldson.

26-year-old stars who regularly eclipse 4 WAR and who are under team control for five more years at an average rate of somewhere around half of what they would get on the open market tend to return a huge haul.

 

[zeke]

Fair enough. It would probably still be a good idea to put at least some consideration into the amount of money/term you would be willing to pay to acquire that player.

I like Lorenzo Cain a lot, and I think it would be a smart acquisition for the Jays. I would even be comfortable with the 4/68 prediction on Fangraphs. But once you start going beyond four years or ramping it up past $80 million or so, you would be stupid not to step back and look elsewhere, even if that means not getting the best player available.

What's the biggest contract you would be happy giving Cain?

I mean a million or two here, a year extra there - you're right I don't really care too much. For me, real GM skill is getting that extra few million value at the bottom of the roster with smart cheapo acquisitions. But you have to pay for frontline talent.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

No chance in hell that Yelich costs you tier 1 prospects. Listen in the end, the Marlins prospect capital is next to nothing. They have none. Drafted poorly and traded away a lot. Prado is strictly salary dump and Yelich is owed close to 48 million over the next few years.

Pillar isn't garbage but is cheaper, better defensively then anything coming back to the Jays. Pompey is not expensive, young with huge risk/reward. After that, the Marlins can have their pick of 2 prospects from Case, Jansen, Tellez, Greene, McGuire, Pentacost and Romano. These are all bubble prospects to be protected by the Jays for the Rule 5 that are all better then most of the prospects the Marlins have in their organization currently. Cost of dumping salary is taking on less in prospects. And don't forget Pillar isn't garbage, he's not a throw in.

I appreciate that you're a fan of the Blue Jays, and you want to improve the team this offseason. I'm simply trying to paint a realistic picture of value for you. Christian Yelich is one of the most valuable assets in baseball (i.e. top 30 2017 Trade Value: #1 to #10 | FanGraphs Baseball). He most certainly is going to cost you, at a minimum, a tier 1 prospect.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I mean a million or two here, a year extra there - you're right I don't really care too much. For me, real GM skill is getting that extra few million value at the bottom of the roster with smart cheapo acquisitions. But you have to pay for frontline talent.

Its the age 34/35/36 seasons that worry me for outfielders with histories of hamstring issues. AAV upfront doesn't bother me at all (within reason), and if people so choose to criticize the management team and\or Rogers on that point, then they are well within their right to do so.

For me, real GM skill is employing a payroll intelligently, having\retaining front line talent, while avoiding as much dead money as possible.

 

[zeke]

I dunno, even most of the good teams have plenty of dead big contract money.

But they manage to get great value at the bottom of the payroll to make up for it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I dunno, even most of the good teams have plenty of dead big contract money.

But they manage to get great value at the bottom of the payroll to make up for it.

Doesn't mean they don't avoid it whenever possible. And of course the best teams will get contributions from pre-arb\TC players. Its essential to success.

 

[BlueForever75]

I appreciate that you're a fan of the Blue Jays, and you want to improve the team this offseason. I'm simply trying to paint a realistic picture of value for you. Christian Yelich is one of the most valuable assets in baseball (i.e. top 30 2017 Trade Value: #1 to #10 | FanGraphs Baseball). He most certainly is going to cost you, at a minimum, a tier 1 prospect.

Not based on rumors that I just heard on the radio from Morosi. He's stating that rumors have it that Marlins willing to unload Yelich in a trade that includes Prado salary. The ask may be players that are in the category I presented from the Jays. But Pillar would have to be included in the deal. No mention of the Tier 1 prospects.

 

[zeke]

I just don't see there being too much evidence of some dead money being a team killer.

 

[hoglund]

The title of this thread needs to be changed, I came to read about Halladay and see nothing WTF?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I just don't see there being too much evidence of some dead money being a team killer.

Its simple opportunity cost. Though some teams can overcome it (i.e. the Dodgers with Adrian Gonzalez), it may cost others (i.e. the Angels with Albert Pujols). Just to be clear "dead money" to me is not only players still being paid when they're off the roster (i.e. Crawford with LA), but overpriced veterans contributing well below their price tag.

Not based on rumors that I just heard on the radio from Morosi. He's stating that rumors have it that Marlins willing to unload Yelich in a trade that includes Prado salary. The ask may be players that are in the category I presented from the Jays. But Pillar would have to be included in the deal. No mention of the Tier 1 prospects.

(sigh) Ok man. Yelich + Prado for that package is realistic. You win.