Speculation: realistic Karlsson suitors

Uncle Scrooge

Hockey Bettor
Nov 14, 2011
13,546
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Helsinki
It's tough to say.. For starters if a team have set their eyes on Karlsson they should also be open to different maneuvers in making that happen, whether it's buying out players, deals with other teams or making a huge deal with Ottawa that's more than just EK.

If the cap goes up to 80M technically cap-wise it gives everyone the opportunity to get him if they're determined enough. So i wouldn't use teams cap situations as a definitive way to shut options down.

But obviously there are teams that are in better spots to begin discussions. Can't deny Vegas for instance checks all the boxes.

This is going to be incredibly complicated deal though..

I'd be looking at teams who 1) have the assets to get it done without creating too many holes 2) feel like they would be in a position to win the cup immediately with Karlsson and think giving up those assets is worth it 3) organization in a very healthy place so they know at least that won't be in the way of EK re-signing

For example the Oilers i don't think fit either of these. Their many issues up front don't fix themselves by getting Karlsson but it would hinder their ability to do anything about it with the amount of money he's going to get. And the team have made the playoffs once in 3 years with McDavid. There's no way the management looks at this team and says yeah, EK is the missing piece we need and we're cup contenders nor can they be confident enough that EK would stay.

I think in reality there are not many teams that aren't on EK's no-trade list, check all those 3 boxes, are able to meet the Sens demands and are ready to make EK their top priority a year before the goes to FA.

To be honest my head just starts to hurt if i try to find suitable trading partners.. this is way worse than the Duchene trade from speculation standpoint.

I do have to say the special circumstances make Vegas a better trading partner than any one team probably should be with this caliber of player. They accumulated so many draft picks before the season started and their prospects look pretty good, they're on everybodys lips which creates positive energy around the organization and on top of this all now they're having playoff success.
 
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Liver King

Registered User
Jan 23, 2016
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colorado at most should offer barrie+ ottawa first (top5 pick) and thats it. barrie is a very good point producing defensemen himself signed at a reasonable price for term. Karlsson has one year left and is going to look for 10+m with no guarantee it's in colorado. Just because colorado took ottawa to town for duchene doesn't mean they are going to give it all right back.

Zero interest in that package unfortunately. Colorado isn't a good fit for Ottawa
 

The Duck Knight

Henry, you're our only hope!
Feb 6, 2012
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Is Bobby still going to be attached to a Karlsson deal? If the answer is yes Vegas has to be the clear favorites. They have the cap space. They're a contender. They have the need for a franchise dman. Most importantly they have the assets.

All that said I think there is a real shot they get it done this summer for something like Theo/Brannstrom+_____+1st+2nd+Eakin as a smaller dump going the other way. Guys that likely aren't going to be on the table are Tuch/Glass/Karlsson/Smith/Marchessault/Schmidt.
 

Voodoo Glow Skulls

Formerly Vatican Roulette
Sponsor
Sep 27, 2017
5,389
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New Jersey and Carolina IMO.


Karlsson

For

Severson
Zacha
2018 1st
Conditional 2019 1st, if Karlsson re-signs.

---

Karlsson

For

2018 1st
Bean
Faulk
Conditional 2019 1st, if Karlsson re-signs.
 
Oct 18, 2011
44,094
9,729
I believe Jersey is the best option for him Karlsson, I think he likes the idea of being in New York personally. I dont agree with the OP that rebuilding teams are out as a destination for him. It doesnt take long to turn a team around and he is only 27 something people seem to be forgeting about Karlsson, specifically when they start making proposals on his value.



I agree for Ottawa its the best fit, if they only get their first and Barrie back for him though wow thats brutal.
It seems to me that Karlsson really wants to win I'd be surprised if he was ok with a rebuilding team because he doesn't know that management he'd have to really trust them
 

Jarey Curry

Avalanche of Makar
May 2, 2015
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Colorado could trade for Karlsson and take on Ryan's contract I don't know what Ottawa gets in return something like Barrie, Ott 1st, and +? I'd be afraid and worried if I was the opponent team and I had to play against a power play with MacKinnon and Karlsson on it. But Col might not be willing to take on that risk considering they probably won't pay their players anywhere near 10M a year, now Ryan's already getting 7,5M...
 

CupInSIX

My cap runneth over
Jul 1, 2012
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Is Bobby still going to be attached to a Karlsson deal? If the answer is yes Vegas has to be the clear favorites. They have the cap space. They're a contender. They have the need for a franchise dman. Most importantly they have the assets.

All that said I think there is a real shot they get it done this summer for something like Theo/Brannstrom+_____+1st+2nd+Eakin as a smaller dump going the other way. Guys that likely aren't going to be on the table are Tuch/Glass/Karlsson/Smith/Marchessault/Schmidt.

I wouldn't do the deal for Karlsson+Ryan. With Brassard's cap hit for next year, plus Clarkson at 2 more years... not unless some serious hometown discounts are in store for our own RFAs and UFAs. I like the flexibility the Knights have right now and I'd hate to see them lose it just to pay almost 13m for Tatar and Ryan.

As for just trading for Erik Karlsson, if he can agree to a sign and trade for 8 years under 9m then something around Theodore + Suzuki + picks might be OK. If he's after 10-12m I say let him go to free agency and sign him without giving up assets.
 
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Liver King

Registered User
Jan 23, 2016
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Would the oilers have the cap space for an extension?

They have young roster pieces with contracts that work, some good young prospects, and each of there 1st round picks for this year (top 10) and next

They also have the best player in the world on there roster, with a glaring need for a top 4 RHD

To me Edmonton is by far the best fit - it's a matter of if both teams want to make a deal or not. Both GM's make big trades, both teams under pressure to shake things up
 

Vegan Knight

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Feb 16, 2018
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Is Bobby still going to be attached to a Karlsson deal? If the answer is yes Vegas has to be the clear favorites. They have the cap space. They're a contender. They have the need for a franchise dman. Most importantly they have the assets.

All that said I think there is a real shot they get it done this summer for something like Theo/Brannstrom+_____+1st+2nd+Eakin as a smaller dump going the other way. Guys that likely aren't going to be on the table are Tuch/Glass/Karlsson/Smith/Marchessault/Schmidt.

If Ryan is a part of the deal, I could see Tatar going back the other way.

If Ryan isn't part of the deal then guys like Tuch and Schmidt would surely be on the table.
 
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danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Nashville could do something around Karlsson for Subban.

The Senators are on a supposed 5 year plan. Subban is signed for 4 more seasons at 10/10/8/8 which in terms of real money is probably in line with what Ottawa would hope to get Karlsson signed for.

It would be the closest thing the Senators could do to a lateral move and they'd be getting a legit superstar who while not as good as Karlsson, league wide is more popular and marketable than him.
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Would the oilers have the cap space for an extension?

If the Oilers are acquiring Karlsson, logically Draisaitl goes the other way as the main piece from EDM which would free up 8.5M in cap space. The cap goes up 5M this off season, so even if the cap doesn't go up at all in the 2019 season that is a net gain of at least 13.5M in cap space.

If the Sens make a bad deal with Edmonton, aka one not involving Draisaitl, I'd imagine it'd be something like RNH+Larsson or Klefbom and then a bunch of 1st round picks+ prospects. So that's still a huge chunk of cap space.

If Ryan has to be attached to Karlsson, I don't think EDM is a match.
 
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The Duck Knight

Henry, you're our only hope!
Feb 6, 2012
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I wouldn't do the deal for Karlsson+Ryan. With Brassard's cap hit for next year, plus Clarkson at 2 more years... not unless some serious hometown discounts are in store for our own RFAs and UFAs. I like the flexibility the Knights have right now and I'd hate to see them lose it just to pay almost 13m for Tatar and Ryan.

I would. Top 3 defenders in the world are next to impossible to find. And I think GMGM agrees with me given that he seemed to be close to pulling it off at the deadline. The Clarkson and Brassard contacts are inconsequential as we're not a budget team and they are very short term and Clarkson can be put on LTIR if need be. So let's look at a the financial outlook while assuming the cap stays at a flat 75m (it won't) and we pull off EK and Bobby for Theo/Brannstrom+Eakin+picks/prospects.

Say Wild Bill gets somewhere in the 5 million range. Could be short term or long term.
Miller right around 3m per.
Carrier and Nosek~ 1m
Probably have to let Perron and Neal walk which I would lean towards anyways if they want anything more than 4 years.
Karlsson extension 9m per. Bit of a market discount because no state tax.

This hypothetical 2018-2019 roster would come in right around 71m with Clarkson included. So room to fill whatever holes may arise. Also not accounting for the possibility that a Glass or Brannstrom could force their way onto it.

Marche-Karlsson-Smith
Ryan-Haula-Tuch
Tatar-____-Carpenter
Nosek-Bellemare-Carrier
Lindberg

Mcnabb-Karlsson
Schmidt-Engelland
Merril-Miller
Hunt

Fleury
Subban

The cap going up this year and next should cover most of EK and Schmidt's raises. Worst case scenario they could look to move Tatar if he's still not a fit come next deadline. In conclusion, for a player of EK's caliber the money can and will work.
 

The Duck Knight

Henry, you're our only hope!
Feb 6, 2012
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If Ryan is a part of the deal, I could see Tatar going back the other way.

If Ryan isn't part of the deal then guys like Tuch and Schmidt would surely be on the table.

I don't see GMGM making those guys I listed available period in a deal for EK. I think those are core players to GMGM and at that point he'd take his chances on Karlsson hitting UFA next summer. I do agree that Tatar could go in a deal including Bobby. If that were to happen we could easily afford to re-sign one of Perron or Neal.
 

Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
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Would the oilers have the cap space for an extension?
Yes it can be done. I've crunched the numbers, even with some generous extensions for our RFAs. Maybe if Puljujarvi takes a step forward in his contract year we might have an issue.

If we had to take Ryan as well, maybe that would be too much.
 

Roof Daddy

Registered User
Apr 1, 2008
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If Ryan has to be attached to Karlsson, I don't think EDM is a match.

I don't know about that, it could still be done if Ottawa were willing to retain a bit (1.5-1.75 per). Would that be too steep for shallow pockets Eugene? At 5.5 for 4 more years I don't think Ryan is bad value. His numbers may not suggest it, but the guy has a nice blend of size and skill that I think would work well with McDavid.

(After July 1st and extension is discussed) Draisaitl + 2019 1st + Bear/Benning for Karlsson + Ryan (1.75 retained). Sign EK to 8 year, 84 (first cup win) million dollar deal front loaded. 10.5 per makes him the highest paid D in the league by a mil.

When the extension kicks in, Sekera and Russel have their full NMC's turn to limited (15 teams can't be traded to). Not out of the question Russel could be moved this off-season to CGY (only team he'd waive for) if they trade Brodie for help up front.

It's doable.
 

branch

#GirlBoss #Vibes
Jan 12, 2008
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Yep. They would be a perfect fit. Only if
1.) Karlson believes in them
2.) he is ok with the cold.

But ultimately getting their first and barrie would be ideal for them.

Good idea!
Ultimately it will come down to who Karlson believes in....
Is jersey for real? Vegas? Who knows how he views the teams

Are you seriously comparing the cold of Denver and Ottawa...?
 

branch

#GirlBoss #Vibes
Jan 12, 2008
8,854
7,243
colorado at most should offer barrie+ ottawa first (top5 pick) and thats it. barrie is a very good point producing defensemen himself signed at a reasonable price for term. Karlsson has one year left and is going to look for 10+m with no guarantee it's in colorado. Just because colorado took ottawa to town for duchene doesn't mean they are going to give it all right back.

How do you know that its a top 5 pick? You guys were dead last last year and you're in the playoffs now. Huge assumption there.
 

lifelonghockeyfan

Registered User
Dec 18, 2015
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Lake Huron
I just don't think there are many suitors for a trade for EK. True contenders may not want to strip their just to get one guy, after all they are contenders with what they have. And these contenders aren't likely to have cap space for a resigning.
Middle of the road teams, don't want to strip their teams either and their thinking, one player isn't going to make them that much more successful, so why make a trade for one year.
 

Oilers Propagandist

Relax junior, it’s just a post.
Aug 27, 2016
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Yes it can be done. I've crunched the numbers, even with some generous extensions for our RFAs. Maybe if Puljujarvi takes a step forward in his contract year we might have an issue.

If we had to take Ryan as well, maybe that would be too much.
Don't forget that the Cap is projected to go up by 3-7 million for next season.
NHL revenues, salary cap projected to rise

We could make it work, even if we get ryan. Maybe we can plug him with McDavid and it works.
Karlsson is a player we need, and if he is willing to re-sign you make it happen within not too extremist boundaries.

This all being said, I feel extremely bad for sens fans that this is even a conversation because of poor ownership but i think if he were to go to the Oil, he would be a king here like McDavid is.
 

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