RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

next year is not big haha, every single player grows differently if he sucks next year there is absolutely no reason to right him off. It will be his 2nd season in NA and he will be 19, give the kid a chance

I mean in terms of stagnation. This year I see as a adjustment year. I think he'll take a step forward next year for sure. I was saying that in terms of the comments regarding stagnation. Can't really say that when it's his first year over here as an 18 year old. This is an adjustment and learning year.

 

[4thline]

I hereby propose a moratorium on all Liljegren praise and discussion. Due to the skeptics unwillingness to watch Marlies games and the small pool of comparables that have played in the AHL at U19 we are forced to conclude that he's doing pretty good and fine for a 17th overall pick. To state anything else runs contrary guidelines of the HF Committee for the Regulation of Liljegren Praise and is severely frowned upon.

 

[Walshy7]

I mean in terms of stagnation. This year I see as a adjustment year. I think he'll take a step forward next year for sure. I was saying that in terms of the comments regarding stagnation. Can't really say that when it's his first year over here as an 18 year old. This is an adjustment and learning year.

cant say next year he will only be 19 and in his 2nd year?, meanwhile all the chl kids at 19 will be beating up on 16, 17,18 year olds?. He may still need some adjustment and learning next year it isn't a big deal. He got injured and they rotate him out alot this year he has played 30 games the marlies have played 58, you cant even really call this a first season in the AHL he will likely end up playing less than 50% of the games. Anyway you can expect whatever you want from him, I expect him to do well but if he doesn't im not bothered too much because they are obviously bringing him into his first season slowly and will likely do so again next year

 

[AppsSyl]

It was really a simple question lol. You just seem to be in here making a lot of judgments about the kids play for someone that clearly hasn't actually been watching him play and just box score scouting. I really have no problem if someone has a differing opinion or isn't a fan of a player but atleast go a little more in depth then looking up his hockeydb page.

Agreed. And if you are going to just look at his hockey db or elite prospects page, but the stats into context and look at what he has done compared to other U19 d-men in the AHL.

 

[AppsSyl]

There were a vocal minority (much more than 2 or 3 people) who claimed he was a complete steal and should have gone top 5.

He was a complete steal and should have went top 5 though. Just wait and see...

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

cant say next year he will only be 19 and in his 2nd year?, meanwhile all the chl kids at 19 will be beating up on 16, 17,18 year olds?. He may still need some adjustment and learning next year it isn't a big deal. He got injured and they rotate him out alot this year he has played 30 games the marlies have played 58, you cant even really call this a first season in the AHL he will likely end up playing less than 50% of the games. Anyway you can expect whatever you want from him, I expect him to do well but if he doesn't im not bothered too much because they are obviously bringing him into his first season slowly and will likely do so again next year

Im not saying it's a huge thing man ahaha. Maybe I shouldn't have used big but it'll be a year closer to showing how good he can be.

 

[Walshy7]

Im not saying it's a huge thing man ahaha. Maybe I shouldn't have used big but it'll be a year closer to showing how good he can be.

oh yeah for sure, he could be 4 years away (I highly doubt he is) for all I care. all I know he has shown to be trending to top4 NHL D who is RH that is hot commodity in the NHL, his skating is elite and his zone entries are as good as Nylander's (who is near the top of the league in zone entries) the kid is fantastic, I hope he comes up soon but whenever it is its going to be huge for our team and that's without even factoring he will still be on his ELC.

anti leafs posters were telling us Dermott will never play in the NHL im sure, its the same with every leaf prospect. Nylander was too soft, Marner too small, Matthews I cant remember what his issue was other than he was a leaf and leafs totally screwed up by not picking laine. It is the same with every leaf prospect, "leaf fans always overrate their prospects" and there is always proof that no we don't actually. And in fact the it should be "non leaf fans always underrate leafs prospects"

 

[nobody]

Let the records show, I was in 100% favour of tanking last season just so we could draft Timmeh. Hockey gods have blessed us with a phenomenal talent at the 17th slot. Hockey gods are good.

I've watched Timmeh play 24 times this season (On the AHL Live Marlies subscription) and I'm beyond thrilled with his development. With the exception of the odd hiccup here and there, he has been absolutely fantastic to watch this year. He's been extremely reliable and when thrust into bigger opportunities (Increased iced time and playing higher pairing because of injuries/ call ups) he has answered the bell. One thing I am most pleased about his game has been his ability to pick his spots to rush the puck and show off his offensive flare/ creativity as the season has gone on.

At the beginning of the year he played very timid and would elect to play safe defensively than risk any kind of chances offensively. Another thing he struggled with big time in the first 10 games or so was his ability to gauge just how fast the opposing team's forecheckers would hound him and catch up to him even on the back check. He has more than enough speed to out skate anyone in the league but when he wasn't able to anticipate the plays he was struggling and looked super slow to react. Thankfully though, again as the season has gone on he learned to better anticipate the pressure and make quick little passes to escape it or make a couple of skating maneuvers to free himself up for an offensive rush.

If he had not been injured, I think we would've heard insane amount of hype on his progression this season but it seems like he hasn't been able to recover from whatever it is that's bothering him. I know he's tried throwing a few big hits this season and he's come up on the worse end of those hits. He's a strong kid but he needs more size and thickness. Maybe a training season or two with a guy like Morgan Rielly will do him some good.

All in all, Leafs nation is bless to have this kid in the pool. He's got no pressure or crazy expectations. He's developing at his own pace and he's enjoying his time with the marlies by the looks of things. He also seems like a really good kid.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

He was a complete steal and should have went top 5 though. Just wait and see...

He needs to pass one of Hischier, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Makar or Tolvanen to do that. Then you have guys like Patrick, Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Chytil etc. to battle for top 10 spots, and then you have the inevitable later round steals. This is a bold statement to make.

Agreed. And if you are going to just look at his hockey db or elite prospects page, but the stats into context and look at what he has done compared to other U19 d-men in the AHL.

If you go beyond hockeydb and eliteprospects, you will see that Liljegren is playing on a much stronger team than any of the D+1 comparables, and his competition is on the lower end. His 5v5 production is also quite low compared to others, especially his primary point production. Per/60 rates are also low.

 

[Aqualung]

He was a complete steal and should have went top 5 though. Just wait and see...

Ahead of who? All 5 top draftees have done nothing to show they didn't deserve to go where they went.

 

[4thline]

Ahead of who? All 5 top draftees have done nothing to show they didn't deserve to go where they went.

"Should have gone top 5" is the inverse of "he went right where he should have". It's conceivable that teams had him there, that opinion may pan out long term, but it's a hard one to defend and a minority opinion.

The "Should have" statement is 7-12, but while there risk there if teams at 7-9 had the guts to take him no one would dispute that his post draft performance would be early vindication.

 

[firstemperor]

If you go beyond hockeydb and eliteprospects, you will see that Liljegren is playing on a much stronger team than any of the D+1 comparables, and his competition is on the lower end. His 5v5 production is also quite low compared to others, especially his primary point production. Per/60 rates are also low.

Can you post these stats, relative to his D+1 comparables? Particularly interested in the competition level.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Can you post these stats, relative to his D+1 comparables?

Player	#	P/GP	P1/GP	eP1/60	eP/60	QoT/GF%	QoC/GF%	GF%rel
Lindholm	6	0,16	0,11	0,62	0,87	45,52	51,27	19,42
Ristolainen	8	0,26	0,09	0,24	1,08	49,15	49,94	-2,9
Honka	14	0,31	0,16	0,67	1,28	50,59	50	-3,75
Liljegren	17	0,17	0,03	0,16	0,79	60,11	48,15	18.46
Voynov	32	0,21	0,16	0,69	0,9	49,38	49,36	9,55
Hägg	41	0,2	0	0	0,66	45,27	42,06	-5,56
Kylington	60	0,17	0,11	0,44	0,71	43,85	52,11	-3,78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5v5 stats, from prospect-stats.com. Mind you I just noticed that they don't actually track ice time, but rather use some formula to calculate it, so take the per/60 stats with a grain of salt.

 

[93LEAFS]

He needs to pass one of Hischier, Heiskanen, Pettersson, Makar or Tolvanen to do that. Then you have guys like Patrick, Mittelstadt, Vilardi, Chytil etc. to battle for top 10 spots, and then you have the inevitable later round steals. This is a bold statement to make.



If you go beyond hockeydb and eliteprospects, you will see that Liljegren is playing on a much stronger team than any of the D+1 comparables, and his competition is on the lower end. His 5v5 production is also quite low compared to others, especially his primary point production. Per/60 rates are also low.

Playing on a stronger team as an 18 year old can also lead to less opportunity and reduced opportunity. I would like to see where these TOI stats are coming from (where you are getting your per 60) because that is not a publically tracked stat in the AHL. To even measure it historically would be tough as it wasn't tracked back then either. If its public, it is probably using TOIe which is inefficient.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Playing on a stronger team as an 18 year old can also lead to less opportunity and reduced opportunity. I would like to see where these TOI stats are coming from (where you are getting your per 60) because that is not a publically tracked stat in the AHL. To even measure it historically would be tough as it wasn't tracked back then either. If its public, it is probably using TOIe which is inefficient.

I noticed they are indeed using some formula to estimate the ice times, so expect them to be at around 90% accurate.

 

[firstemperor]

Player	#	P/GP	P1/GP	eP1/60	eP/60	QoT/GF%	QoC/GF%	GF%rel
Lindholm	6	0,16	0,11	0,62	0,87	45,52	51,27	19,42
Ristolainen	8	0,26	0,09	0,24	1,08	49,15	49,94	-2,9
Honka	14	0,31	0,16	0,67	1,28	50,59	50	-3,75
Liljegren	17	0,17	0,03	0,16	0,79	60,11	48,15	18.46
Voynov	32	0,21	0,16	0,69	0,9	49,38	49,36	9,55
Hägg	41	0,2	0	0	0,66	45,27	42,06	-5,56
Kylington	60	0,17	0,11	0,44	0,71	43,85	52,11	-3,78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5v5 stats, from prospect-stats.com. Mind you I just noticed that they don't actually track ice time, but rather use some formula to calculate it, so take the per/60 stats with a grain of salt.

Appreciate posting this....I was wondering if I was missing out on a reference/resource. As soon as I hear competition, or rates with AHL, since both the numbers are TOI adjusted.

Ultimately, those stats scream more optimism to me, in terms of where he's at in his trajectory (i.e. youngest player in the AHL).....playing on a strong team goes both ways. It doesn't hurt that Liljegren got a decent amount of time being playing with Dermott, Marcinin (awful training camp but has trended up since). It's been a mixed bag with him this year in terms of simplifying his game, getting used to the small ice, getting injured mid-season.

 

[RandomAvsFan]

He was a complete steal and should have went top 5 though. Just wait and see...

Ahead of...?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Ahead of...?

I think it can be argued that he might be better than Cale Makar when comparing them and this draft class in the future.

 

[AppsSyl]

Ahead of...?

Makar for one.
What Liljegren has done in the AHL as an 18 year old and the strides that has made defensively and with his two-way game, while possessing the same offensive upside as Makar lead me to believe that he is the better pick, and seems more impressive to me than what Makar has done in the NCAA. Add the fact that Liljegren has over the course of the season shown the pre-draft criticisms to be largely overblown and downright false in some cases places him in my opinion near the top of his draft class. He has shown the promise that he has a very good chance to become a very good all around defenseman, and more than just an offensive powerplay specialist, like many pigeon hole him as.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

I like Liljegren

 

[LeafsNation75]

Makar for one.
What Liljegren has done in the AHL as an 18 year old and the strides that has made defensively and with his two-way game, while possessing the same offensive upside as Makar lead me to believe that he is the better pick, and seems more impressive to me than what Makar has done in the NCAA. Add the fact that Liljegren has over the course of the season shown the pre-draft criticisms to be largely overblown and downright false in some cases places him in my opinion near the top of his draft class. He has shown the promise that he has a very good chance to become a very good all around defenseman, and more than just an offensive powerplay specialist, like many pigeon hole him as.

Liljegren also had to get adjusted coming over to North America and playing on the smaller sized ice surface.

 

[Dump Itch]

I don't like Liljegren.

 

[Eltuna]

Makar for one.
What Liljegren has done in the AHL as an 18 year old and the strides that has made defensively and with his two-way game, while possessing the same offensive upside as Makar lead me to believe that he is the better pick, and seems more impressive to me than what Makar has done in the NCAA. Add the fact that Liljegren has over the course of the season shown the pre-draft criticisms to be largely overblown and downright false in some cases places him in my opinion near the top of his draft class. He has shown the promise that he has a very good chance to become a very good all around defenseman, and more than just an offensive powerplay specialist, like many pigeon hole him as.

Makar most definitely has the higher offensive upside though, not sure how anyone that has watched them can think otherwise. Maybe he will be better but to say he has comparable upside is absolutely not true.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

I was diagnosed with liljegren once. Itchiest month of my life.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Agreed. And if you are going to just look at his hockey db or elite prospects page, but the stats into context and look at what he has done compared to other U19 d-men in the AHL.

Most U19 d-men are not in their 3rd year of getting significant time in a men's league. And it's extremely rare that teams find the AHL to be the best place for an 18 year old d-man. Liljegren is a special case that way. The sample size of U19 AHL D is small, and few if any of them are comparable in terms of having the same career trajectory as Liljegren (early bloomer, hyped as a top 3 pick at 16 years old).