Damn, that's all?? That's disappointing to hear. As you follow things a lot more closely than I do.
I have us at 82-80.
(Last year I had us at 72. That was pretty close. Hoping they outperform my take again this year.)
Maybe I'm being way too optimistic.
EDIT: OK, I read that again. That was your floor, gotcha. So we definitely see the range similar.
Look forward to your 10 game segments again this season.
Haha thanks, I will see if I can try to get in the habit of doing them again. It's a fun exercise.
And yeah, I think 82-80 is a reasonable ballpark. 72-90 would be closer to the worst case scenario and I think on the verge of what should get some people fired even if I don't think that would happen.
When I look at the division, I just see a lot of ambiguity. Nobody hugely stands out. The Cardinals have to rebound in some way, but their pitching still leaves a lot to be desired. The Brewers got worse. The Cubs basically held serve by bringing Bellinger back and I think Imanaga will be good, but it's not a huge impact addition and if anything it's a swap/upgrade from Stroman. The Reds are extremely young just like us and could go in lots of different directions.
One place where the Pirates might have some advantage is that this is a team which has mostly been together for a while and seems to have a strong bond. I don't think that overcomes everything, but I think the major thing this team needs to up its floor is an ability to avoid the tailspins that have happened for weeks at a time in previous seasons.
That's ultimately why the cheapness with the pitching is so frustrating, because the bottom falling out of the pitching is the easiest way for that kind of 10 or 15-game tailspin killshot to pop up. I still don't quite know what to expect from the staff, especially Gonzales who it feels like a lot is subtly riding on. Keller and Perez should be solid enough, the former more so, and maybe you will get some occasional surprises from the #4 and #5 spots especially if one of them is Jones in short order. Gonzales can be effective, but he could be a spot where they get almost nothing, which I think would set them behind the 8-ball in terms of the best positioning of themselves for when the summer really gets underway.
Speaking of Jones, seems like the weather cost him this game. It's sort of unclear what to expect now, since there are only three games left in ST. Anderson has apparently triggered an opt out which would suggest he won't make the team, but that could be a nothing story with many other rotation possibles and Roansy in the bullpen.
Anderson was scheduled to pitch Saturday, so maybe Jones will get bumped with one last showcase opportunity. I have to think it won't matter for him, as there are a few other ways to sort it out while keeping him in AAA. My guess right now is that either Falter will make it in what is made clear is basically a holding pattern for one of Lauer or German, or perhaps if we've decided to move on from Falter, we'll go Priester to start.
I hope it's Jones if only because I think some early season momentum could be huge for positioning the team to be in the hunt when Skenes gets the call. Even if it's just half a dozen games where teams have little book on Jones, he's earned it and it would be a good boost to take.
