OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Shipmates starting to report for duty

[sovietsanta87]

I was going to sprinkle a little on NL MVP but his odds must have gotten steamed up a ton this spring.

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Edit: FanDuel still has him at +10000, get it while you still can!

Got it at +8000. Good look. Just wish we could parlay it with Pirates making the playoffs

 

[MrBrightside]

While recognizing that Spring Training really doesn't matter that much, it's pretty easy to get excited about the potential of the lineup. The flip side is that it makes their failure/refusal to invest in the rotation all the more vexing. Really feels like this is going to be a top 10-15 offense with a good bullpen that is going to get undermined by the starting pitching and wins 77 games rather than competing for a Wild Card spot.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, that's where I am at as we get set for the season to start. If things really click with Cruz and Hayes, then that makes the lineup something that is firing on all cylinders. There's still a reasonable amount of uncertainty to have, but Hayes basically isn't striking out at all and Cruz is not chasing pitches or showing any signs that he is rusty from the year off.

If you afford yourself some genuine optimism about Davis (which I will confess that I do -- I have always been sky high on his bat), then things could really start to get interesting, but even setting that to the side, the Pirates should have 3-4 stalwarts in the lineup along with some good upside in 2-3 places, and maybe the most underrated thing being that there isn't a big empty spot or section on paper like we have been so used to.

On the pitching side, I think the best possible optimism is that the team won't be ridiculous with Skenes and Jones if the MLB team competes. Those guys should be here by May at the latest on performance alone. While both are rookies and probably only pitching 150 innings, I guess that's something. It's still a lot to rely on, and generally speaking, although we could play a "what if" game with how Ortiz has looked or even Priester showing a touch more velo and some whiffs, at the end of the day there are just so many ways for the pitching to go sideways and that would be less the case if we had spent 30 million more in free agency to get Flaherty, Lugo, etc.

 

[sovietsanta87]

I can’t see the pitching being worse than it was last year. Is it a good staff? No. But it has to be better. We had 104 year old rich hill starting and he was actually not extremely terrible.

Gonzales and Perez seem like upgrades. Hopefully German can get his act together.

We just need enough duct tape and glue until skenes and jones are ready to roll

 

[ChaosAgent]

I can’t see the pitching being worse than it was last year. Is it a good staff? No. But it has to be better. We had 104 year old rich hill starting and he was actually not extremely terrible.

Gonzales and Perez seem like upgrades. Hopefully German can get his act together.

We just need enough duct tape and glue until skenes and jones are ready to roll

Last year we had Oviedo. And with Keller there are long stretches where even if he looks "good" the results are terrible. Probably my biggest concern with him. Is there ever going to be a sub-3.5 ERA year?

 

[MrBrightside]

I can’t see the pitching being worse than it was last year. Is it a good staff? No. But it has to be better. We had 104 year old rich hill starting and he was actually not extremely terrible.

Gonzales and Perez seem like upgrades. Hopefully German can get his act together.

We just need enough duct tape and glue until skenes and jones are ready to roll

I mean, this is the glass half-empty view, but even the three "established" SP in the rotation all have some pretty serious questions:

1. After his start on May 20 last year, Keller's ERA was 2.44. His ERA the rest of the season was 5.06.

2. Perez had an ERA of about 4.50 and didn't make the Rangers' postseason rotation and appeared in only 2 games the entire postseason - and it's not like the Rangers' strength was having a stacked pitching staff.

3. Gonzales was bad last year even before he got hurt, and for whatever anyone says, a pitcher who has nerve issues in his throwing arm has to be concerning. Hell, when they acquired him we were pretty unanimous in saying "it's fine in a vacuum if he's the 5th starter but they have to add higher in the rotation."

And these are the 3 "sure things" in the rotation. There's an awful lot of wishcasting with this staff and it feels like it'll take an inside straight to be anything better than bad prior to Skenes and Jones, and Skenes is almost certainly not going to be here until mid-season at the earliest given his current pitch counts.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Last year we had Oviedo. And with Keller there are long stretches where even if he looks "good" the results are terrible. Probably my biggest concern with him. Is there ever going to be a sub-3.5 ERA year?

Yeah I mean maybe? Oviedo had his high points. He also had several games where we were completely non competitive after the third inning. The new additions certainly do not have the ceiling Oviedo has but I’m hoping they can keep it close most nights. We have a good enough lineup to score runs and a good enough bullpen to keep things in check

 

[Empoleon8771]

I mean, if you look at everything from a negative or worst case scenario, you can definitely justify that their rotation could be worse this year than last year. But that's going in with a negative slant and looking at only the downside.

A negative outlook on this year's team plus the power of hindsight from last year's team doesn't really yield a fair comparison in my eyes.

 

[MrBrightside]

I mean, if you look at everything from a negative or worst case scenario, you can definitely justify that their rotation could be worse this year than last year. But that's going in with a negative slant and looking at only the downside.

A negative outlook on this year's team plus the power of hindsight from last year's team doesn't really yield a fair comparison in my eyes.

I acknowledged that it was the "glass half empty" perspective, but I'd also argue that if your top 3 SP are Keller, Perez, and Gonzales, you have a bottom 5 rotation in baseball.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I acknowledged that it was the "glass half empty" perspective, but I'd also argue that if your top 3 SP are Keller, Perez, and Gonzales, you have a bottom 5 rotation in baseball.

Yeah, I don't disagree. I'm just purely talking about this year vs last year. I think you can definitely justify how their rotation could be worse this year than it was last year, it just seems like a very "glass half empty" perspective to argue that.

I think the average outcome with this pitching staff will likely be better than last year's staff. It remains to be seen by how much, but I think it should be better. There are a lot of variables that can completely sway how good their rotation is. Just to name a few:

1. How soon do Jones and Skenes come up?
2. Can Ortiz carve out a job as an effective starter with his newly developed plus changeup?
3. Is Keller going to be first half 2023 Keller or second half 2023 Keller?
4. How does Gonzales bounce back from his injuries?

Honestly, I think Perez is the safest guy to project here: he'll give you a boring 4.5 ERA over 30 starts if you keep him for the full year. Beyond that, I think there is a lot of variability with how the rotation can be. I can honestly see this rotation being anything from "borderline top-10" to "downright horrible".

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah I mean maybe? Oviedo had his high points. He also had several games where we were completely non competitive after the third inning. The new additions certainly do not have the ceiling Oviedo has but I’m hoping they can keep it close most nights. We have a good enough lineup to score runs and a good enough bullpen to keep things in check

I agree that the bullpen looks good.

I agree with MBS that a Keller-Perez-Gonzales 1-3 has got to be the worst in baseball, even if I'm high on some of the depth (Ortiz, Lauer, German, Brubaker) and Skenes/Jones

 

[sovietsanta87]

I acknowledged that it was the "glass half empty" perspective, but I'd also argue that if your top 3 SP are Keller, Perez, and Gonzales, you have a bottom 5 rotation in baseball.

I won’t even say it’s glass half empty. It’s a reasonable point. I guess I don’t see it any worse than Keller Contreras Hill from last year.

Plus the caliber of prospects is higher than last year. Hopefully Ortiz can turn a corner. Skenes and Jones are much better than Priester. If German can get his head on straight that could be a huge improvement. Hope springs eternal I guess haha

 

[BusinessGoose]

Night in, night out, i think this lineup can be very entertaining. They'll be able to hit the ball and get runs.

Pitching is going to make or break em

 

[since70]

Giancarlo Stanton 2/2 with @ 900 feet in HR's, including a GS for his 2nd Marco Gonzalez needs to stay in Fla.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Giancarlo Stanton 2/2 with @ 900 feet in HR's, including a GS for his 2nd Marco Gonzalez needs to stay in Fla.

I think when you consider Gonzales' 2022 (huge drop in K rate), 2023, injury history and the fact that Atlanta is paying him $9M to not pitch for them, he should be on very shaky ground.

They are only paying him $3M and I am not convinced yet they are going to fully ST-manipulate Jones. In addition, German and Lauer might be better vet options.

 

[since70]

I know it's ST, but you can't throw 89/91mph fastballs in MLB, especially if your real off speed stuff isn't getting strikes. Stanton hits one over the batters eye in center, then over a scoreboard in left, what's in right he can hit over? Correction 1300 ft in 3 HR's, last one just an average 400 ft.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Not really breaking the bank for a veteran who would give you 150 decent enough innings.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Not really breaking the bank for a veteran who would give you 150 decent enough innings.

Just speculating but my guess is lorenzen would need significantly more money to sign here than the rangers

 

[DJ Spinoza]

That's a fair point. I don't know how significantly more it would be, but there would be no reason for him to take the same money here. Given the incentives, I imagine we would have needed to be up closer to the 8-10M region.

 

[sovietsanta87]

That's a fair point. I don't know how significantly more it would be, but there would be no reason for him to take the same money here. Given the incentives, I imagine we would have needed to be up closer to the 8-10M region.

I think a lot of players would prefer not to play here

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I tend to think that's too much of a self-fulfilling prophecy that let's the team off the hook for being too cheap. Especially for players who are mid-tier FAs or below, I think money and opportunity talk plenty. While players have all kinds of preferences, including to win, if a team is going to pay you the most money, the best decision is to play there.

The Pirates were not going to pay Lorenzen 9 million so it's a moot point, but when we're talking about a million or more dollars, I don't think most players are turning their nose up at that, especially on a one year deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don’t really feel like a Lorenzen caliber pitcher is a need anymore after signing German. I think they’re good with #4 starters already. If they’re adding anything, it needs to be a top of the rotation guy.

Right now, their SP depth is Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Ortiz, Contreras, German, Lauer, Jones, Priester and Skenes, with Brubaker coming off the IL later in the year. I don’t see a need here for another Perez or Gonzales caliber guy. They either need a guy to push everyone down a spot or have one of their young guys jump up the chart to push everyone down a spot.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Interesting thing to note today: Taylor is making his first spring appearance for the Pirates today. The lineup they're having today looks pretty damn close to what it will be for opening day.

With Grandal starting the year on the IL, it looks like we'll see something extremely close to this for opening day:

RHP:

1. Cruz (SS)
2. Reynolds (RF)
3. Hayes (3B)
4. Suwinski (LF)
5. McCutchen (DH)
6. Tellez (1B)
7. Davis (C)
8. Taylor (CF)
9. Triolo (2B)

LHP:

1. Cruz (SS)
2. Reynolds (RF)
3. Hayes (3B)
4. McCutchen (DH)
5. Davis (C)
6. Joe (1B)
7. Olivares (LF)
8. Taylor (CF)
9. Triolo (2B)

 

[MrBrightside]

Cam Sutton cut by the Lions following his domestic violence charges. He'd fit in perfectly on the Pirates. Wonder if he can pitch.

 

[MrBrightside]

I know it's Spring Training but I'm very confident in saying I don't want Falter anywhere near this pitching staff in 2024.