OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Shipmates starting to report for duty

[sovietsanta87]

I tend to think that's too much of a self-fulfilling prophecy that let's the team off the hook for being too cheap. Especially for players who are mid-tier FAs or below, I think money and opportunity talk plenty. While players have all kinds of preferences, including to win, if a team is going to pay you the most money, the best decision is to play there.

The Pirates were not going to pay Lorenzen 9 million so it's a moot point, but when we're talking about a million or more dollars, I don't think most players are turning their nose up at that, especially on a one year deal.

No no I think the owner and his well documented history of being a cheapskate across the board lends itself to negativity. I have a buddy who works security for games. He’s been in the opposing dugout plenty of times. The players have talked about it. “Great stadium. Nice city. But where the hell are the fans? Why don’t they try to win?”

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Better now than early in the season IMO. Not watching because there's too much basketball on, but seems like he did ok coming out of the pen today. 3 Ks in 1 IP. I think we could see a lot more of that with him airing it out in the pen along with the great slider, and at least ideally, there's not a ton of immediate pressure to be a leverage guy, since Bednar, Chapman, and Holderman / Hernandez / Mlodzinski are options before him, but especially the former two.

With Moreta's TJ finally being officially announced, it might be a kind of blessing in disguise, since Roansy can step into that role.

 

[MrBrightside]

So who fills out the rotation? Priester and Ortiz? Can't be Falter at this point.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Contreras being a reliever is great news because it opens up a spot for Jones. Now it’s just a matter of them not being stupid and playing Falter over Jones.

So who fills out the rotation? Priester and Ortiz? Can't be Falter at this point.

Jones and Ortiz probably.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

So who fills out the rotation? Priester and Ortiz? Can't be Falter at this point.

Let's hope it also pushes Falter away from the bullpen.

I would guess Priester and Ortiz, but maybe they'll do something smart for once and reward Jones for his performance.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Starters: Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Ortiz and Jones
LIRP: Falter
SIRP: Contreras, Borucki, Holderman, Mlodzinski and one of Fleming, Hernandez, Honeywell, Stratton or Peralta
Setup: Chapman
Closer: Bednar

This is how I’d expect it to end up with Roansy in the bullpen.

 

[Factorial]

Falter faltering in the first giving up 2 hr's but nothing after until he hit the 50 pitch limit.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I can't see them keeping Jones up knowing it will cost them a year of control. Slow play it until June. He comes up with Skenes.

I'd bet some money on that.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It's semantics somewhat but for the year of control, Jones would only need to be down about 4 weeks or so. It's a much more black and white deadline because it corresponds to the day where once it pasts, no player who hasn't accrued a day of service in MLB can officially gain a "full year", even if they stay on the roster for the rest of the season.

Where it gets dicey is super two, which = paying arbitration for 4 rather than 3 of the seven years (with 3 or 4 being league minimum). That requires guesswork because the actual date isn't determined until later. Then on top of that, there is the question of the player getting into the ROY race now, which could eliminate the point of keeping him down because if he gets it or top-2, then he gets the full year anyways.

I assume that will be more of a factor for Skenes than Jones. I imagine you / others know most of this, but the whole thing is so convoluted that I like to try and lay it all out. My money would also be on Jones not making the team, and then not coming up until the extra year is gained, which is early May at the earliest. I just won't believe that they aren't doing it as a rule until I actually see it happen.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I can't see them keeping Jones up knowing it will cost them a year of control. Slow play it until June. He comes up with Skenes.

I'd bet some money on that.

They dont even have to wait that long, i think the extra year is a couple weeks

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Not sure I agree with the Pirates being the worst team in the Central.

 

[td_ice]

I wonder what BP had for us last season. I tried to look it up, but it said sub needed to see past years.

I know Vegas, last pre season, had us at 68 wins, very early.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can't see them keeping Jones up knowing it will cost them a year of control. Slow play it until June. He comes up with Skenes.

I'd bet some money on that.

Jones isn’t good enough to worry about keeping him down until June.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was today years old when I learned that Palacios actually did have option years left.

Anyway, it seems like either Peguero or Williams will be the backup middle infielder. I feel like Alika as the backup and Peguero in AAA is the obvious option, but who knows at this point.

 

[sovietsanta87]

Not sure I agree with the Pirates being the worst team in the Central.

They refuse to admit that the cardinals are medicore

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Jones isn’t good enough to worry about keeping him down until June.

If he not good enough to worry about service time then he isnt good enough to worry about if hes on the roster opening day.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Baseball Prospectus is trash nowadays IMO, and the major front-facing guys like Goldstein and Paternostro are where you really see it. The prospect coverage is laughable at times, such as last week when the latter was trying to say that Jobe has now catapulted himself in front of Skenes as a prospect, despite the fact that nothing in Jobe's pitch data has changed. If you thought Jobe was better before (a minor hot take, but plausible enough not to be laughed out of the room), there's no reason to hype it up now.

That said, I think 72-90 is within the cards for this team, even if I am not quite that pessimistic. I think what they are on paper is a 75-win team that hasn't really made any major stake that it's going to play above that caliber. Last I checked, that's where Vegas has the over/under on team wins, and although the whole division is just a bunch of mediocre, it's not ridiculous to lean towards the under there given the pitching uncertainty.

If you get a right tail outcome from Cruz or Hayes offensively, then I think that will start to carry you a long ways towards "this team is as good or better than multiple division teams", but the floor still lies with the pitching. I think the Cubs are decently better than most of the other teams on paper, but just like last year, every team has some significant question marks. It's reasonable to assume the veteran bats in St. Louis won't be so bad, but their pitching is still bad, Milwaukee has probably gotten worse, the young core in Cincinnati is all getting hurt, and the Cubs added but not in a huge statement way,

Probably a little cliche, but I could see us legitimately threatening for the division well into the summer or falling behind the pace by the trade deadline and maybe at best chasing .500 in the second half. It also doesn't seem ridiculous to think that we could be right in line with the mediocre division and then the final two months make or break us, with that 72-75 win range still very possible if a bad few weeks happen in August. We just didn't do enough to step forward. Flaherty, Lugo, or similar in the rotation wouldn't be a showstopper, but it would probably give more confidence that the team's low end hovers around .500 and that a division race is plausible.

 

[BusinessGoose]

They refuse to admit that the cardinals are medicore

I'll be shocked if STL gets to mid 80s, that seems wild

 

[Empoleon8771]

If he not good enough to worry about service time then he isnt good enough to worry about if hes on the roster opening day.

No, he isn’t good enough to worry about keeping him down until June beyond the super 2 deadline.

He’s in the same position as Reynolds. The extra year of arbitration isn’t a huge deal because he doesn’t project to be a top tier earner.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

No, he isn’t good enough to worry about keeping him down until June beyond the super 2 deadline.

He’s in the same position as Reynolds. The extra year of arbitration isn’t a huge deal because he doesn’t project to be a top tier earner.

If hes good enough to care if hes on the roster hes good enough that his arb number will matter when the time comes.

Even if hes not all that good.

For example Nick Pivetta is going to earn 7.5 million in his arb 3 year.

His earnings have been (rounded for ease)

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
2.5
5.5
7.5

Totaling 17.5.

If hes super 2 it looks like somethkng like

0.5
0.5
0.5
2.5
5.5
7.5
10.5

Or 27.5

Which is 10 million difference for a team that pinches every penny for a pitchers path thats not very good. If he really good that number could be as high as 20 million.

This extra money also makes signing an extension harder because the players salary floor is raised and there isnt as much benefit in signing.

Are 8 starts worth 10-20 million dollars? This year? I doubt it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If hes good enough to care if hes on the roster hes good enough that his arb number will matter when the time comes.

That's really dumb but you seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing here.

My point is that Jones doesn't project to be a good enough player where you have to manipulate his service time beyond that 7th year of control (meaning no Super 2 manipulation). Extrapolating that to "he's not good enough to care if he's on the roster" is just dumb.

 

[td_ice]

Probably a little cliche, but I could see us legitimately threatening for the division well into the summer or falling behind the pace by the trade deadline and maybe at best chasing .500 in the second half. It also doesn't seem ridiculous to think that we could be right in line with the mediocre division and then the final two months make or break us, with that 72-75 win range still very possible if a bad few weeks happen in August. We just didn't do enough to step forward. Flaherty, Lugo, or similar in the rotation wouldn't be a showstopper, but it would probably give more confidence that the team's low end hovers around .500 and that a division race is plausible.

Damn, that's all?? That's disappointing to hear. As you follow things a lot more closely than I do.


I have us at 82-80.


(Last year I had us at 72. That was pretty close. Hoping they outperform my take again this year.)

Maybe I'm being way too optimistic.

EDIT: OK, I read that again. That was your floor, gotcha. So we definitely see the range similar.

Look forward to your 10 game segments again this season.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

That's really dumb but you seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing here.

My point is that Jones doesn't project to be a good enough player where you have to manipulate his service time beyond that 7th year of control (meaning no Super 2 manipulation). Extrapolating that to "he's not good enough to care if he's on the roster" is just dumb.

Its really simple.

If he is good enough (and he certainly has the upside to be good enough) that it matters whether he is or isnt on the roster, then he good enough to consider holding down for super two.

your acting lke his upside is Josh Fogg.

Dont know about you but i think we would all be disappointed if Jones ends up with the same first 6 years as Nick Pivetta statistically. Yet even Nick Pivetta would cost you 10+ million dollars if he was Super 2.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Its really simple.

If he is good enough (and he certainly has the upside to be good enough) that it matters whether he is or isnt on the roster, then he good enough to consider holding down for super two.

your acting lke his upside is Josh Fogg.

Dont know about you but i think we would all be disappointed if Jones ends up with the same first 6 years as Nick Pivetta statistically. Yet even Nick Pivetta would cost you 10+ million dollars if he was Super 2.

Again, that doesn't make any sense. Teams don't hold down non-elite prospects out of fear of those guys getting an extra year of arbitration. The best comparable to Jones in recent memory is Contreras, who the Pirates didn't manipulate his service time based on the Super 2 deadline.

Contreras started the year with the Pirates, was sent down from early July to mid August and then was back up for the rest of the year. Contreras had that same perceived upside that Jones has, but the Pirates didn't manipulate his service time to get rid of that 4th arbitration year. That's exactly how they'd handle Jones.

The same thing happened with Brubaker, he's at 4 years of service time exactly right now because they just played him in the MLB for the entirety of the 2020 season.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm excited about Skenes, but still regretful about this.

Rangers To Select Wyatt Langford

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy informed the club's beat that outfielder Wyatt Langford has made the team, with Evan Grant of …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

He was a better prospect than Crews but I didn't foresee this ascent this quickly. Could be next Julio or Trout.