OT: Raise the Jolly Rodger: Shipmates starting to report for duty

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DJ Spinoza

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I don't like Falter making the team, but I guess utilizing him as the opener with Ortiz as the bulk reliever isn't the worst approach. If Falter can give you 2-3, and Ortiz can give you more like 4, that can work. One way to look at it is as some final rope for Falter while Ortiz maybe quasi-additions for the full time role, and then you have Lauer and German in addition to Priester as candidates to take a job.

I kind of interpret the bullpen situation as taking some guys who will be easy to DFA in the hopeful event that Mlodzinksi and Holderman aren't out for much longer than the minimum.
 

MrBrightside

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I don't like Falter making the team, but I guess utilizing him as the opener with Ortiz as the bulk reliever isn't the worst approach. If Falter can give you 2-3, and Ortiz can give you more like 4, that can work. One way to look at it is as some final rope for Falter while Ortiz maybe quasi-additions for the full time role, and then you have Lauer and German in addition to Priester as candidates to take a job.

I kind of interpret the bullpen situation as taking some guys who will be easy to DFA in the hopeful event that Mlodzinksi and Holderman aren't out for much longer than the minimum.
I mean, there's no justification for a team STARTING THE YEAR with someone like this in the rotation - Falter is a guy you use in August with 4 guys on the DL - but at the least they can mitigate the damage as you suggest since they had plenty of practice with starts by non-starters most of the second half last year.

Given the innings limits we can expect between Skenes and Jones, it's quite possible that's one rotation spot between the two of them this year - Skenes comes up when Jones comes out of the rotation as he approaches the limit.
 

DJ Spinoza

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No disagreement from me really, but I interpret their approach to Falter as more roster management than anything else. IMO the root of the problem is the same reason why we now have to include the caveat that German could work his way into the mix once he's built up, which is that Nutting is/was too cheap to sign another legitimate starter.

Sign Lugo or Flaherty or Lorenzen and you don't really need to worry about whether or not its prudent to keep Falter around. As it stands, I think they think that he'd be claimed if they DFA him, so they'll try to at least scrape some innings out of him in whatever this piggyback strategy ends up looking like.

I'm not willing to just throw my hands up about the lack of true payroll investment in SP, but obviously it's just yelling into the void. Given the constraint, I guess I am willing to go along with the current plan, especially because a less crowded pen makes it even more viable. In some sense, it might be best to just have Ortiz starting games and Falter as a regular mop up/long reliever. But since he's on the team, I'm ok chucking spring results out the window and seeing it through. I won't hold my breath, but there's a way that drawing up a Falter opener / Ortiz bulk / back to slower LHP in Fleming / end game closer plan could steal some games.

Anyways, they are only playing this game with Falter because they forced themselves into this corner. On talent, it might make some sense to just catapult him off the roster now, but then if Jones really ends up stumbling, or Ortiz can't get any consistent control, the depth gets burned up much faster. The only thing I am hoping (though again not holding my breath) is that they won't be precious about the roster spot if the results still aren't there after a few weeks into the season and you get some health from the injured RPs as well as data from Priester's AAA starts and presumably stretched out and ready to go Lauer or German.

Final thought: Skenes is still the enigma to me. I think starting him in AAA is a sign that they might not play quite as many games as expected. It's possible that Skenes could have some ups and downs which buys them more runway, but I think playing the super two game would have been a lot easier if they started him in Altoona. Then there are real and imaginary "benchmarks" he needs to get to in order to go to AAA, and then you can rinse and repeat and all of a sudden you are into the month of June. It depends on a few factors, but I do think they have set it up to where they can promote him in late May or so if the opportunity is there. It wouldn't shock me if they use the all star break and some other thinly veiled excuses to sort of reverse engineer a 7th year of control for Jones. If you option him under the guise of preserving his innings, it wouldn't be that hard to figure it out for 2-3 weeks, but that's getting way too far ahead of myself.
 

Empoleon8771

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I don't think Falter is good but I also don't really see him as bad enough to say that it's unacceptable for him to be starting games in the MLB. He's a mediocre to poor long-reliever who's being used as a stopgap for Skenes. He'll probably be piggy backing with Ortiz anyway, so you'll be trying to get 6 or so innings between the Falter and Ortiz duo rather than just using Falter as a pure starter.

The more interesting thing to me is that this team is seemingly planning on Ortiz being a reliever going forward, which is something I wouldn't have expected but kinda makes sense. I think Keller and Skenes are clearly going to be top of the rotation starters, and I feel good about Jones ending up a good middle of the rotation guy. I also imagine the Pirates will want to consistently have a veteran lefty like Quintana, Perez or Hill in their rotation in the #4 or #5 spot. After that, you still have Oviedo (not sure how he rebounds after TJS) plus a bunch of other good pitching prospects. Does Ortiz really have a future in their rotation? I'm not sure I see one.

I don't think it is unrealistic that their rotation in 2025 is something like Keller, Skenes, Jones, Oviedo and a UFA like Perez. Considering Ortiz's repertoire, I don't mind the idea of grooming him to be a setup man or closer going forward.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I think the core issue is still one that most agree on but is out of our hands at this point. Falter becomes the emergency depth option that he really is if and only if you make a genuine investment in the starting pitching. He's option #5 or 6 depending on how we are counting right now due to them not doing that.

Beyond that, I think it's running a little too far ahead to project anything, though I do like the young pitchers coming up after Skenes, particularly Chandler and Harrington. I would have less of a bone to pick with Falter as a default option if Oviedo had gone down in spring training rather than early in the winter. When you add in the prospect of some tantalizingly decent offense, the Falter spot in the rotation will be under some real scrutiny early in the season, since we can't afford to be totally punting games if we want to tread water in any division or WC race. If a Falter/Ortiz agglomeration can give you something like a 4.6 ERA, you'll take it, but it's going to be demoralizing if the team is heading in a good direction and your opener blows up for 8 runs.
 

Coastal Kev

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I wanted Langford. Skenes looks like a boss, but pitchers are very risky.

Imagine the Pirates lineup with Langford added and if they spent on 2-3 starting pitchers this offsesaon. That team could easily compete with anyone.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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No argument from me about Langford. I wanted him up through the summer and was ultimately swayed with Skenes. I think the major unknown for Langford is how good the glove will be and how that will ultimately settle for him, but there's no denying that his stock has further risen since the draft.

I'm excited for opening day, but man is it frustrating to look at the division and wonder what might have been had we made two small excursions into the middle of the market for a SP and 1B. All the teams in the division are completely meh. The Brewers and Reds look to have already drawn bad injury luck on top of that, and I don't see any reason to think that the Cardinals will be that much improved over last year besides everyone just assuming "well, they are the Cardinals".
 

DJ Spinoza

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To me, that outcome would be the most shocking out of any. I am probably guilty of some overthinking, but the current set-up actually incentivizes you to suppress a call-up once you have made the decision to send a promising prospect back to the minors at the start of the season.

The reason for this is the rule that finishing top-2 in the ROY vote ends up negating the extra year of control by granting the player a full year of service. This happened with Tanner Bibee last year, who the Guardians promoted in the final week of April.

There's obviously no guarantee that Skenes would replicate that feat, as the NL race could at least be somewhat crowded due to both Yamamoto and Imanaga on top of Chourio, who likely has to be the position player frontrunner at this point (there's also Lee, so all three of the prominent "pro rookies" coming from Asian leagues are in the mix to take a spot).

But I think there's at least a pretty reasonable chance of it happening with a quick promotion, such that it has to be something they are factoring into their upcoming decision-making plans. The only way it would make sense to promote him quickly is if they had every intention of trying to sign him to a Hunter Green-type contract this winter, but then at that point, you might as well give him a shot to make the rotation out of spring training in order to potentially gain the additional draft pick.

I think it's mid-May at the absolute earliest, and with Skenes' profile, even that is early enough to threaten getting into the ROY mix if nobody is really running away with it early on.
 

ImporterExporter

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As long as he doesn't bomb or get injured Skenes will debut at home, on a weekend, when there will be maximum attendance.

Twins or Rays in June being my guess. If you really wanted to be sure of the service time we play the Cardinals at home on the 4th of July.
 
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MrBrightside

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The Pirates win a wild-card spot​

Let’s just go to the bullet points.

Ke’Bryan Hayes lifted the ball this spring (11-degree launch angle, career average was 5 degrees until last year), which was a big part of his second-half power surge last year.
Oneil Cruz hit the absolute snot out of the ball (three of the top 10 tracked exit velocities this spring) and is healthy again.
• Top pitching prospect Jared Jones just showed his nastiness (top-10 spring Stuff+) and made the rotation.
Henry Davis spent the winter working on his swing plane and smoked the most tracked line drives this spring.
• Jack Suwinksi, who does everything but make contact, struck out less than the league average this spring.
• The team added major-league depth (Marco Gonzales, Martín Pérez, Eric Lauer, Domingo Germán and Aroldis Chapman) to their rotation and bullpen in free agency.
Paul Skenes, possibly the best pitching prospect in baseball, is lurking in the high minors.
Andrew McCutchen is back.

FanGraphs has the Pirates winning 77 games, but this is a young team on the rise, and those team projections have 10-win error bars. On this same date last season, the Orioles and Diamondbacks were both projected for 78 wins.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Since turning pro, Skenes has thrown 9.2 IP between the minors last year and spring training this year. I don't care how good his stuff is, but you're just asking for trouble by rushing him into the majors.

Let him gradually get comfortable with the 5 day rotation in AAA and then call him up when he's fully ready to be a MLB starter. He has the stuff to be a starter right now, but he's not MLB ready.
 

Shrimper

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Wasn't David Wells hammered when he threw a perfect game? Doc Gooden and a lot of the 80's guys were doing massive amounts of coke, I remember watching Jim Leyland smoking cigs in the Pirates dugout as a kid...

I'm not condoning substance abuse. I personally don't care if a person drinks or does drugs, but don't let it negatively impact another person directly, which is hard to do for most people when engaging in those choices.

Wasn't one of the no hitters a player on LSD or something?
 

ChaosAgent

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May 8, 2018
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I'm saying 72-90.
I want to believe but IMO the rotation is flawed and we're too offensively dependent on streaky guys who will get dominated by lefties (Cruz, Suwinski) and a reclamation project in Tellez.

We end the season feeling good about our pitching going forward (Skenes, Jones and Solometo cameos in September) but left wanting for an impact bat at 1B or in the outfield.
 

td_ice

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Aug 13, 2005
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Wasn't one of the no hitters a player on LSD or something?
Doc Ellis claimed he was on LSD the day he pitched a no hitter.

“I can only remember bits and pieces of the game,” Ellis told the Pittsburgh Press in ‘84 “I had a feeling of euphoria. I was zeroed in on the glove [of catcher Jerry May], but I didn’t hit the glove too much. I remember hitting a couple of batters and [that] the bases were loaded two or three times.”

In actuality, Ellis hit only one batter that night at San Diego Stadium, but he was certainly wild against the Padres – incredibly wild. Ellis walked eight Padres during his June 12, 1970, no-hitter, an unusual occurrence for a pitcher who usually featured more than decent control. Although it’s impossible to say with any certainty, Ellis’ lack of control that night may have stemmed from the effects of LSD.
 
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