Prospect Info: Pronman's top 100 prospects

[Mortimer Snerd]

I am definitely not handing Chevy anything at this point. Chances are as it stands right now, anybody not named Ehlers or Morrissey is doubtful (in my opinion) to become any sort of legitimate impact NHL'er. It's that difficult.

I stated my views on this a couple/few weeks ago in the Copp thread.



http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=88492551#post88492551

Don't forget our own Keaton Ellerby, 10th OA in '07 by Florida. Personally I still have high(ish) hopes for him. D develop later.

 

[Whileee]

As I said last night to Rhys, I like Chevy's drafting, but some people seem silly bending backwards to create accolades for him.

Actually, I think that some of us are trying balance out the barrage of often silly criticism he is receiving because he doesn't make enough trades, or doesn't sign a particular UFA that some Jets fans seem to like. It's not like we see very many silly "Chevy is great" threads to bend over backwards to "create accolades". Quite the opposite.

I've been free with my criticism for what I see as his mistakes, but I am reluctant to participate in knee-jerk negative reactions because he hasn't made more "player for player" trades, or because he isn't as forthcoming in interviews about the team strategy as some fans would like.

I would note that there have also been some overly negative mistaken perceptions developed on these Boards, including the myth that Chevy had basically kept the same scouting staff as Atlanta, and therefore didn't even deserve credit for their recent drafting record.

Regarding Pronman's list, if the list is meant to assess the strength of young assets not currently playing in the NHL then you might as well add 22-year old Burmistrov to the list (drafted in the same year as Gormley), because he is Jets property but playing outside the KHL. Whether he's already played in the NHL becomes irrelevant if the purpose is to assess what's "in the organization" that could be used as a player or an asset. If 21-year old Kucherov decided to play in the KHL for a year or two he'd be ranked as a top-tier prospect, even though he'd be essentially exactly the same as Burmi was last year in terms of age and value to the organization. To me, that's not logical.

I understand the nature and purpose of lists, but I think that there are better ways of developing criteria - that's all. You can find that "silly", while I'll continue to find comparing apples to oranges "silly", just because someone decided to make arbitrary rules for his list.

 

[jetkarma*]

that being said. if you used this list all three of Ehlers, Petan, and Morrisey are major + by draft position by any weighting.

Plus the goalies? Certainly a 5th rounder rated that high has to be a major +++ , imo.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With their top pick being 5th, their lowest being 76th, and the average hitting about "average"...it is very very hard to develop an argument against Buffalo having the best prospect pool in the league. Very impressive

And IIRC they have a very large number of picks coming up in each of the next 2 drafts. Once they all graduate from junior/college etc. Buffalo is going to need a 2nd AHL team to keep them in.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like this? Subtracted the draft position from 101, then summed the results for each team - good idea. Gives a nice 'at a glance' of how much 'value' teams have in Pronman's top 100. PS: the table is sortable:

NHL Team|Average of Rank|StdDevp of Rank|Count of Rank|Min of Rank|Max of Rank|100 - Pos'n Sum
Carolina Hurricanes|13.0|0.0|1|13|13|88
Winnipeg Jets|16.0|7.5|3|6|24|255
Calgary Flames|22.5|19.5|2|3|42|157
New York Rangers|25.0|0.0|1|25|25|76
Edmonton Oilers|25.7|15.6|3|8|46|226
Arizona Coyotes|27.0|9.0|3|16|38|222
Ottawa Senators|31.0|17.0|2|14|48|140
Pittsburgh Penguins|32.7|16.1|3|15|54|205
Toronto Maple Leafs|37.5|33.5|2|4|71|127
Vancouver Canucks|38.3|22.8|4|19|77|251
Washington Capitals|39.6|30.2|5|10|97|307
San Jose Sharks|40.0|0.0|1|40|40|61
Nashville Predators|41.5|34.4|4|7|90|238
Buffalo Sabres|42.4|23.6|8|5|72|469
Boston Bruins|47.0|8.0|3|36|55|162
Colorado Avalanche|47.0|0.0|1|47|47|54
St. Louis Blues|51.5|13.0|4|35|67|198
Chicago Blackhawks|54.3|30.9|3|12|85|140
New Jersey Devils|56.0|0.0|1|56|56|45
Anaheim Ducks|57.0|12.8|3|39|68|132
Florida Panthers|57.2|31.6|5|2|96|219
New York Islanders|57.7|31.4|7|9|93|303
Columbus Blue Jackets|59.8|30.9|4|28|95|165
Tampa Bay Lightning|60.6|30.8|5|1|87|202
Dallas Stars|67.5|10.5|2|57|78|67
Montreal Canadiens|67.6|24.2|5|34|98|167
Detroit Red Wings|68.0|24.7|4|33|99|132
Minnesota Wild|69.3|18.3|3|45|89|95
Los Angeles Kings|80.0|14.5|5|53|94|105
Philadelphia Flyers|87.0|11.0|3|73|100|42

Well done!

 

[Whileee]

And IIRC they have a very large number of picks coming up in each of the next 2 drafts. Once they all graduate from junior/college etc. Buffalo is going to need a 2nd AHL team to keep them in.

Buffalo traded a substantial part of their core of players for picks (Vanek, Miller, Pominville, Ott, Regehr, then Moulson, etc.)

The Jets (or any team) could do this and also end up with a great list of prospects.

I think the Jets are likely to take a more balanced approach, but we still might see them transition two or more of their core into young prospects or picks when the opportunity arises.

 

[HannuJ]

still wondering what Petan has to do to make the club.
one year of AHL? half a year?

 

[Grind]

Plus the goalies? Certainly a 5th rounder rated that high has to be a major +++ , imo.

I won't disgaree.

Even comrie making the list as an honorable mention is a good +

Again, I don't know pronman's success rate, but if these three and hellbuck turn out that means we'll have turned 6 players from 4 drafts. That's not bad but we still need two more success stories to claim we're at that beauty 2+ mark.

Hopefully a couple of Comrie, Copp Kosmochuk Lowry Lipon or Glover can make that happen. Wouldn't that be a treat?

again, i'm not giving any benefit of the doubt until they do...but if they do i'll be fully aboard the "chevy- draft genious" train.

 

[Whileee]

Like this? Subtracted the draft position from 101, then summed the results for each team - good idea. Gives a nice 'at a glance' of how much 'value' teams have in Pronman's top 100. PS: the table is sortable:

NHL Team|Average of Rank|StdDevp of Rank|Count of Rank|Min of Rank|Max of Rank|100 - Pos'n Sum
Carolina Hurricanes|13.0|0.0|1|13|13|88
Winnipeg Jets|16.0|7.5|3|6|24|255
Calgary Flames|22.5|19.5|2|3|42|157
New York Rangers|25.0|0.0|1|25|25|76
Edmonton Oilers|25.7|15.6|3|8|46|226
Arizona Coyotes|27.0|9.0|3|16|38|222
Ottawa Senators|31.0|17.0|2|14|48|140
Pittsburgh Penguins|32.7|16.1|3|15|54|205
Toronto Maple Leafs|37.5|33.5|2|4|71|127
Vancouver Canucks|38.3|22.8|4|19|77|251
Washington Capitals|39.6|30.2|5|10|97|307
San Jose Sharks|40.0|0.0|1|40|40|61
Nashville Predators|41.5|34.4|4|7|90|238
Buffalo Sabres|42.4|23.6|8|5|72|469
Boston Bruins|47.0|8.0|3|36|55|162
Colorado Avalanche|47.0|0.0|1|47|47|54
St. Louis Blues|51.5|13.0|4|35|67|198
Chicago Blackhawks|54.3|30.9|3|12|85|140
New Jersey Devils|56.0|0.0|1|56|56|45
Anaheim Ducks|57.0|12.8|3|39|68|132
Florida Panthers|57.2|31.6|5|2|96|219
New York Islanders|57.7|31.4|7|9|93|303
Columbus Blue Jackets|59.8|30.9|4|28|95|165
Tampa Bay Lightning|60.6|30.8|5|1|87|202
Dallas Stars|67.5|10.5|2|57|78|67
Montreal Canadiens|67.6|24.2|5|34|98|167
Detroit Red Wings|68.0|24.7|4|33|99|132
Minnesota Wild|69.3|18.3|3|45|89|95
Los Angeles Kings|80.0|14.5|5|53|94|105
Philadelphia Flyers|87.0|11.0|3|73|100|42

....now if you compare the age and quality of the current NHL core for the teams with better "prospect scores" (Washington, Vancouver, Buffalo, Islanders), I think the Jets compare reasonably well. If the Jets are able to transition from the older core to the younger core and upcoming prospects, they'll be in reasonably good shape.

 

[Mud Turtle]

....now if you compare the age and quality of the current NHL core for the teams with better "prospect scores" (Washington, Vancouver, Buffalo, Islanders), I think the Jets compare reasonably well. If the Jets are able to transition from the older core to the younger core and upcoming prospects, they'll be in reasonably good shape.

Great job!! Do you think you could incorporate the top ten goalies into the "point totals"?

Maybe 10 points for the 10th best goalie on the top ten list, 20 for the 9th best etc? Leaving the goalies out seems to be like putting a puzzle together without the last piece.

 

[jetkarma*]

I won't disgaree.

Even comrie making the list as an honorable mention is a good +

Again, I don't know pronman's success rate, but if these three and hellbuck turn out that means we'll have turned 6 players from 4 drafts. That's not bad but we still need two more success stories to claim we're at that beauty 2+ mark.

Hopefully a couple of Comrie, Copp Kosmochuk Lowry Lipon or Glover can make that happen. Wouldn't that be a treat?

again, i'm not giving any benefit of the doubt until they do...but if they do i'll be fully aboard the "chevy- draft genious" train.

55 + 8 + the 5 on the list is 7 . Seeing that is a pretty condensed list and we have more than a handful of prospects to reach that goal , I like the outlook.

 

[Grind]

55 + 8 + the 5 on the list is 7 . Seeing that is a pretty condensed list and we have more than a handful of prospects to reach that goal , I like the outlook.

i agree it looks more promising. I had just put comrie and hellebuck seperately because goalies are voodoo and all that.

 

[garret9]

i agree it looks more promising. I had just put comrie and hellebuck seperately because goalies are voodoo and all that.

Ya... and lets be honest... Fucale is higher on the goalie list which makes it very meh to me

 

[Aavco Cup]

Ya... and lets be honest... Fucale is higher on the goalie list which makes it very meh to me

I think there's a reason he separates out goaltenders from the main list. I think he's more comfortable evaluating the non goaltending part of the game. This is on top of the whole voodoo thing.

 

[CaptainChef]

It is reassuring to get a (presumably) independent opinion that matches your own. I think I may have come down with a touch of homeritis. I got thinking about the Oilers and their 3 straight 1st OA picks. I went back and looked at the last 3 drafts as though we had had the same. I picked out who I thought we would have taken (not Nail!) but then I really didn't want to trade for Trouba, Morrissey or Ehlers! I guess that means I like Chevy's picks.

Pretty sure most would trade Morrissey for MacKinnon, and as much as I like Ehlers, he'd get swapped for any of the top three without hesitation as well

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pretty sure most would trade Morrissey for MacKinnon, and as much as I like Ehlers, he'd get swapped for any of the top three without hesitation as well

Yes, realistically but when thinking of actually doing it I had to overcome some attachment to those players. I would not swap Trouba for Nail, no thanks.

 

[garret9]

I think there's a reason he separates out goaltenders from the main list. I think he's more comfortable evaluating the non goaltending part of the game. This is on top of the whole voodoo thing.

You are correct in that.

 

[Huffer]

Great Work YYG!

I really like the addition of your last column (the 101-position).

At first glance, it seems to do a reasonable job in combining the "quality" vs "quantity" factors.

 

[Basalt13]

Fact that Mantha is 33rd on this list completely invalidates it. Also Draisaitl not being top 5 as well he better then both Bennett and Reinhart imo.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Fact that Mantha is 33rd on this list completely invalidates it. Also Draisaitl not being top 5 as well he better then both Bennett and Reinhart imo.

Drafted year

Ehlers GP63 G49 A55 P104
Mantha GP67 G50 A39 P89

Bennett and Reinhart were consistently rated higher than Leon all year.

 

[garret9]

Fact that Mantha is 33rd on this list completely invalidates it. Also Draisaitl not being top 5 as well he better then both Bennett and Reinhart imo.

Just let me check on this...

Your opinion invalidates another?

 

[ps241]

Fact that Mantha is 33rd on this list completely invalidates it. Also Draisaitl not being top 5 as well he better then both Bennett and Reinhart imo.

I hear what you are saying and I have seen the argument before of a couple of weird picks invalidating the entire body of work, but I wouldn't blow up a list because a guy has a few players ranked in odd positions vs how I see them. Cory is pretty glowing in his review of Mantha's "Ridiculously" productive season last year and he really likes some of Anthony's skills (good speed, above average puck skills, great shot) but after he gets by discussing all the good things he cautions:

He's not a perfect player -- he likely won't be a top-end defensive forward and I'm concerned with how he'll handle tough pro minutes -- but he's certainly someone about whom Detroit fans should be excited.

It looks like Pronman is concerned about whether Anthony's game will translate to the NHL. I am as surprised as anyone that he would have Petan above him but that is how he sees it with Mantha. I have some issues with the list but he is a solid reviewer and I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. There are allot of guys out there who seem to build "consensus" lists and play it safe so take it for what it's worth but I always have time for Cory's work and although I often strongly disagree with some of his rankings he is thoughtful and I respect his opinion.

 

[Grind]

I hear what you are saying and I have seen the argument before of a couple of weird picks invalidating the entire body of work, but I wouldn't blow up a list because a guy has a few players ranked in odd positions vs how I see them. Cory is pretty glowing in his review of Mantha's "Ridiculously" productive season last year and he really likes some of Anthony's skills (good speed, above average puck skills, great shot) but after he gets by discussing all the good things he cautions:



It looks like Pronman is concerned about whether Anthony's game will translate to the NHL. I am as surprised as anyone that he would have Petan above him but that is how he sees it with Mantha. I have some issues with the list but he is a solid reviewer and I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater. There are allot of guys out there who seem to build "consensus" lists and play it safe so take it for what it's worth but I always have time for Cory's work and although I often strongly disagree with some of his rankings he is thoughtful and I respect his opinion.

Well said PS.

Also: If I recall correctly, I believe pronmen heavily factors in possession and performance by age as well in his projections.

That Mantha just barely missed the cutoff for the year prior to his draft might work against him in this sense as well.

I also don't believe Pronman's the only scout to offer fairly "guarded" optimism for Mantha. If you look at his other rankings, he definitely seems to temper a players projection if they've been cleaning up the Junior leagues but are "men" playing against boys.

Wether that's fair or not is completely up for debate/interpretation, but i get it.

 

[StronGeer]

Just let me check on this...

Your opinion invalidates another?

Yeah, but his opinion is correct

Pretty hard to know that. You couldnt pin Chevy down on which day of the week it was never mind player offers.

 

[Board Bard]

Just saw Pronman's list on hockeybuzz.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thread.php?thread_id=119255&forum_id=1%22

What I don't get is why Tanner Pearson is on the list. He played 25 games in the past season and 24 in the playoffs (plus 1 last year in the playoffs) and won the cup. Shouldn't that count as graduation from prospect?