Pro-Benning Crowd: What Counts As Failure Next Year

[RobertKron]

You might have a point with Virtanen, but why Juolevi? Defensemen often take longer to develop.

Mattias Ohlund for instance, was drafted in 1994. He made his debut with the Canucks in 1997. Pretty safe to say that Ohlund turned out pretty damned good for us.

Ohlund didn't come over because they couldn't iron out a contract. It had nothing to do with his development. He only ended up here because he Canucks matched a contract he signed with the Leafs.

 

[Horse McHindu]

What round was Chara drafted in?

Round 3. Looks like Round 3 of 1996 produced a lot of legendary superstars, as is typical with 3rd round picks:

1996 NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia

 

[RobertKron]

So the moral of your story is that all great or superstar defensemen develop quickly? Zdeno Chara says hi by the way.

Zdeno Chara played in the NHL in his D+2 after being drafted in the 3rd round out of the Slovakian league. That's a pretty f***ing fast climb.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Also the reason Öhlund took so long to make NHL was completely different than Juolevi:



Öhlund could have played sooner but for Quinn’s stubbornness. Juolevi’s impediment has been his own play.

Fair enough. I was not aware of that.

 

[CanaFan]

Ohlund didn't come over because they couldn't iron out a contract. It had nothing to do with his development. He only ended up here because he Canucks matched a contract he signed with the Leafs.

Reminds me of Krutovsdonut arguing that Hamhuis spent an extra year in jr then played 2 years in the AHL. Of course he neglected to mention that Hamhuis played for Nashville in between his two AHL seasons and only played the second season because of the 2005 lockout.

 

[CanaFan]

Round 3. Looks like Round 3 of 1996 produced a lot of legendary superstars, as is typical with 3rd round picks:

1996 NHL Entry Draft - Wikipedia

Right but you do see a difference between a 3rd round pick and a top 5 pick right? A top 5 pick is already much further ahead in their development than a 3rd round pick. Juoelvi’s development curve has been a lot flatter since he was drafted than someone like Chara who started off well behind then accelerated quickly.

 

[RobertKron]

Right but you do see a difference between a 3rd round pick and a top 5 pick right? A top 5 pick is already much further ahead in their development than a 3rd round pick. Juoelvi’s development curve has been a lot flatter since he was drafted than someone like Chara who started off well behind then accelerated quickly.

Why would they even use Chara as an example? If Juolevi was following Chara's post-draft path, he'd be splitting this year between the AHL and NHL.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Reminds me of Krutovsdonut arguing that Hamhuis spent an extra year in jr then played 2 years in the AHL. Of course he neglected to mention that Hamhuis played for Nashville in between his two AHL seasons and only played the second season because of the 2005 lockout.

So aside from Ohlund, Hamhuis, etc., etc., is the moral of the story here that if a defenseman hasn't cracked his NHL team's line-up by 19-20, he's pretty much a bust?

 

[RobertKron]

So aside from Ohlund, Hamhuis, etc., etc., is the moral of the story here that if a defenseman hasn't cracked his NHL team's line-up by 19-20, he's pretty much a bust?

Yeah, that's totally it. Fantastic point.

 

[CanaFan]

So aside from Ohlund, Hamhuis, etc., etc., is the moral of the story here that if a defenseman hasn't cracked his NHL team's line-up by 19-20, he's pretty much a bust?

No, but it’s not a good sign either. NHL success is a funnel. The farther you go down the funnel without making the NHL decreases your long term chances for success. This is exacerbated for a top 5 pick like Juolevi who is already highly developed at 17 whereas guys Kirk Chara and Keith are just catching up. If Juolevi doesn’t play for us next year then I’d absolutely be concerned.

 

[RobertKron]

Just going to remind everyone that Benning said that Juolevi was good enough to play in the NHL as a 17 year old during his draft year, but that he just needed to get a bit stronger. If defensemen like Juolevi take longer, then how was he NHL ready at 17? How has it taken so long for him to just add that little bit of strength if he was already good enough for the NHL before he was drafted? How come this NHL-ready-if-not-for-some-muscle kid not making a mockery out of the competition in the OHL and Finland?

 

[pgj98m3]

Just going to remind everyone that Benning said that Juolevi was good enough to play in the NHL as a 17 year old during his draft year, but that he just needed to get a bit stronger. If defensemen like Juolevi take longer, then how was he NHL ready at 17? How has it taken so long for him to just add that little bit of strength if he was already good enough for the NHL before he was drafted?

Read The Provies today......Juolevi may not be saviour this fan base is hoping for.

 

[Dab]

You might have a point with Virtanen, but why Juolevi? Defensemen often take longer to develop.

Mattias Ohlund for instance, was drafted in 1994. He made his debut with the Canucks in 1997. Pretty safe to say that Ohlund turned out pretty damned good for us.

I said if they don't take a bit step, its a failure. If Juolevi doesn't take a big step and show he has NHL chops I'd say its a huge failing, considering what other teams reaped out of the 2014 and 2015 top 10.

 

[CanaFan]

@Bovinder Horvatji, if you legitimately want to assess this I’d suggest you do this: Look up all defensemen drafted top 10 in the past 10 or so years. Then split them into groups based on when they made the NHL i.e. D+1, D+2, D+3, etc. Then look at the ones in the D+3 or later piles and ask yourself (honestly) if you think that’s the group of players you want your top 5 pick to turn out to be.

 

[y2kcanucks]

So the moral of your story is that all great or superstar defensemen develop quickly? Zdeno Chara says hi by the way.

So Juolevi is going to develop into a 6'9 250lb defenseman?

You have to go back to someone drafted 20 years before Juolevi to come up with your example?

 

[y2kcanucks]

@Bovinder Horvatji, if you legitimately want to assess this I’d suggest you do this: Look up all defensemen drafted top 10 in the past 10 or so years. Then split them into groups based on when they made the NHL i.e. D+1, D+2, D+3, etc. Then look at the ones in the D+3 or later piles and ask yourself (honestly) if you think that’s the group of players you want your top 5 pick to turn out to be.

Except he doesn't want to assess this accurately. It doesn't support his narrative about Benning.

 

[Black Noise]

@Bovinder Horvatji, if you legitimately want to assess this I’d suggest you do this: Look up all defensemen drafted top 10 in the past 10 or so years. Then split them into groups based on when they made the NHL i.e. D+1, D+2, D+3, etc. Then look at the ones in the D+3 or later piles and ask yourself (honestly) if you think that’s the group of players you want your top 5 pick to turn out to be.

The list of Top 10 drafted defenceman that need more than 3 years after their draft year to make the NHL is not a good one.

Brian Lee, Keaton Ellerby, Thomas Hickey, Dylan McIlrath, Griffen Reinhart, Derrick Pouliot, Slater Koekkoek, Haydn Fleury.

If Juolevi doesn't make the team next season those are his comparables.

Yikes.

 

[Hit the post]

You might have a point with Virtanen, but why Juolevi? Defensemen often take longer to develop.

Mattias Ohlund for instance, was drafted in 1994. He made his debut with the Canucks in 1997. Pretty safe to say that Ohlund turned out pretty damned good for us.

Ohlund's situation was unique and not comparable....

Quinn had a habit of playing hardball with contract (he didn't have the advantage of Aquaman giving him a blank cheque to sign blue chip prospects).

Negotiations got sooooo bad it looked like he would re-enter the draft as a prospect who never got a contract he was willing to sign (this was before the ELC days). Laffs so an opportunity to get a blue chip prospect for free and gave him an offer sheet). Canucks matched & the rest was history. Ohlund WAS NHL ready but didn't come over earlier cause he had no contract (Quinn playing hardball).

Ohlund.as a rookie was the Canucks best D and came in 2nd place in Calder votes...If he didn't get that eye injury...he mightve even had a chance at a Norris later on his career ...One of the best shutdown D in his prime WITH that handicap.

 

[CanaFan]

Except he doesn't want to assess this accurately. It doesn't support his narrative about Benning.

He might not, but given the recent run of just complete garbage posters I’ve revised and softened my estimation of the other typically pro-Benning posters. In BH’s case his methods and arguments may be flawed (IMO) but he at least attempts to support his arguments which I can respect. I’m trying to give him a methodology that will give more projectable outcomes than just picking ad hoc names from the last 25 years. If he uses it and is honest with the results it gives then that would a good outcome for this board.

 

[Jack Burton]

The list of Top 10 drafted defenceman that need more than 3 years after their draft year to make the NHL is not a good one.

Brian Lee, Keaton Ellerby, Thomas Hickey, Dylan McIlrath, Griffen Reinhart, Derrick Pouliot, Slater Koekkoek, Haydn Fleury.

If Juolevi doesn't make the team next season those are his comparables.

Yikes.

Pooooooh! You know he's our young Drew Doughty and proof right there that Dmen take longer to develop

 

[PG Canuck]

So aside from Ohlund, Hamhuis, etc., etc., is the moral of the story here that if a defenseman hasn't cracked his NHL team's line-up by 19-20, he's pretty much a bust?

So, I went ahead and did this. This is since the 2007 draft, so this is through a 10 year span.

Quick notes:
*Hamilton played 42 games in his D+2 season, but got sent back to OHL. Made NHL fully in his D+3 season.
*Koekkoek played 29 NHL games in his D+5 season, but has only now made the NHL fulltime, this year
*Dylan McIllrath is not listed, but played 34 games in his D+6 season, so I wouldn't really classify him as making the NHL as he has not stuck fulltime.
*Griffen Reinhart is not listed. Has not made NHL fulltime.

D+1​	D+2​	D+3​	D+4​	D+6​	D+7​
Aaron Ekblad (1st overall)​	Ryan Murray (2nd overall)​	Alex Pietrangelo (4th overall)​	Haydn Fleury (7th overall)​	Derrick Pouliot (8th overall)​	Thomas Hickey (4th overall)​
Victor Hedman (2nd overall)​	Erik Gudbranson (3rd overall)​	Karl Alzner (5th overall)​	Keaton Ellerby (10th overall)​	Slater Koekkoek* (10th overall)​
Drew Doughty (2nd overall)​	Morgan Reilly (5th overall)​	Mathew Dumba (7th overall)​
Zach Bogosian (3rd overall)​	Hampus Lindholm (6th overall)​	Darnell Nurse (7th overall)​
Adam Larsson (3rd overall)​	Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th overall)​	Dougie Hamilton* (9th overall)​
Seth Jones (4th overall)​	Ivan Provorov (7th overall)​	Jared Cowen (9th overall)​
Noah Hanifin (5th overall)​	Zach Werenski (8th overall)​	Jonas Brodin (10th overall)​
Luke Schenn (5th overall)​	Rasmus Ristolainen (8th overall)​
Jacob Trouba (9th overall)​
Mikhail Sergachev (9th overall)​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[VanJack]

Well, if you go on the basis of the stated objectives for this season from Jimbo and Linden, the Canucks wanted to get younger and be playing 'meaningful games' in March......with the exception of Boeser they're not much younger, and heck, this team wasn't even playing 'meaningful games' in January.

So success for next season?....well, if Pettersson, Gaudette, Dahlen, Demko and Juolevi are all on the opening day roster....then, whether or not they're 'playing meaningful games' in March, won't really matter that much.

 

[ChefBoiRD]

@Bovinder Horvatji, if you legitimately want to assess this I’d suggest you do this: Look up all defensemen drafted top 10 in the past 10 or so years. Then split them into groups based on when they made the NHL i.e. D+1, D+2, D+3, etc. Then look at the ones in the D+3 or later piles and ask yourself (honestly) if you think that’s the group of players you want your top 5 pick to turn out to be.

Thomas Chabot was drafted in 2015, not a bad player right? Juolevi was drafted in 2016, a draft year younger than Chabot. Chabot made the NHL D+3. Why don't we wait and see where Juolevi is D+3 before we send him off to the pastures. Or is that not fit your narrative?

 

[Black Noise]

Thomas Chabot was drafted in 2015, not a bad player right? Juolevi was drafted in 2016, a draft year younger than Chabot. Chabot made the NHL D+3. Why don't we wait and see where Juolevi is D+3 before we send him off to the pastures. Or is that not fit your narrative?

The argument isn't that.

The argument is that if Juolevi doesn't make the team next year he's in tough, as his comparables of Top 10 picks that don't make it by D+3 are Brian Lee, Keaton Ellerby, Thomas Hickey, Dylan McIlrath, Griffen Reinhart, Derrick Pouliot, Slater Koekkoek, and Haydn Fleury.

He could make the team next year, but it seems like a longshot given the Canucks current defenceman contract situation and his development.

 

[Hit the post]

Being drafted 18th overall vs 5th overall. Two different sets of expectations.