I don’t think anyone can make a fair assessment of a draft class a year out. A year ago, we weren’t talking about Lindstrom, Silayev, Parekh, Buium, Iginla, or Yakemchuk as potential top-10 picks, and Cole Eiserman was challenging Celebrini for 1st overall. So much can change, I don’t think it’s viable strategy to base the “preference” on which draft is stronger in theory a year out. Yes, if the Pens pick next year were to be top-5, I’d prefer it. But it’s absolutely impossible to say if 15th overall next year will be better than 11th overall this year.
It’s also impossible to predict how the Pens will look next season. Personally, I think there is absolute an easy way for the Pens to improve (firing the coach, getting a better supporting top-6 winger than Smith, reducing Letang’s minutes, etc.). I would be surprised if the Pens built a team that would give us a top-5 pick next year. Of course, anything can happen, see the 2020 Sharks—if Crosby gets hurt for any length of time, they’re done. I totally understand how tempting that 2025 unprotected pick feels, and if it’s what we end up with I’ll be excited about it too.
But the only thing I know for sure is that there are some 7th-8th overall caliber prospects who will be available at 11th overall this year, in my opinion. And a year of extra development has value as well.