JunglePete
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2012
- 6,860
- 632
Predict the next 10 games
- Thread starter G0bias
- Start date
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
I think we'll be at .500 by end of November. The team is definitely not as bad as the record shows and there's a lot of room for improvement. The effort is there and I think there is enough skill to make the team competitive. The goals will flow soon enough. What is lacking is another PMD. Markov's absence has been fatal so far. Once Price reverts to his average, things should settle down. I know it seems like blind optimism, but I've seen far worse play/effort from the Habs in the past even while winning games. Something doesn't add up for now.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I said before we went on that western road trip that we would be lucky to be 5-6-1 and we would likely be 4-7-1 by the end of the month (or even 3-8-1). It's going to be a very tough hill to climb to get back to .500 and I'm not sure I want us to. Best thing to happen to our team at this stage is to take a few steps back and relieve some pressure. We need to keep adding to our age 25 and under core and I don't care that Price is 30 and Weber is 32 and how you feel they are old tomorrow.
ClasslessGuy
Registered User
vs FLO W
vs LA L
So, to go to the rest:
vs NYR OTL
@ OTT L
@ MIN L
@ WPG L
@ CHI L
vs VG W
vs MIN W
vs BUF W
So, including the last 2 games, 4-5-1. Better than the first 9, but not enough to gain any ground on anyone.
As a bonus, in our next 8, I see us scoring no more than 18 goals. On the plus side, I think we'll score in every game.
vs LA L
So, to go to the rest:
vs NYR OTL
@ OTT L
@ MIN L
@ WPG L
@ CHI L
vs VG W
vs MIN W
vs BUF W
So, including the last 2 games, 4-5-1. Better than the first 9, but not enough to gain any ground on anyone.
As a bonus, in our next 8, I see us scoring no more than 18 goals. On the plus side, I think we'll score in every game.
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
We're not even close to the dark ages. Anyway, win or lose, I'm enjoying this season. It has a potentially interesting narrative arc: overcoming early adversity and fans who abandoned them, the habs pull it together and make the playoffs. I'm even sort of fine with the b-plot (GM canned, Pacioretty traded for Milan Lucic, Mario Tremblay promoted to coach). Just dont give me a repeat of the last few seasons (hot start, gradual decline, early exit).
There is nothing interesting about barely squeaking into the playoffs and getting quickly bounced in the first round.
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
It’s more interesting than going in as favorites and getting bounced. The best scenario is getting in as underdogs and then hopefully doing some damage.
You’re sipping on Kool-Aid. There are serious problems with this roster:
1) We are far too predictable. We have two offensive weapons- Pacioretty and Drouin. Mark them hard and don’t let Weber shoot. It’s too easy to game plan against us.
2) We have cap space but teams don’t trade for another month. We are already at a 4.2% chance of making the playoffs and have a greater than 50% chance of a top 3 pick according to sportsclubstats.com.
3) We are weak down the middle of the ice. Even Drouin doesn’t have size. We need a big center to drive the net and open up space for our wingers. Right now our centers can just be ignored and the defensemen can just focus on stopping our wingers.
4) Our forward group is built on hard work not skill. There’s very little skill on this team. Our shots are from far. We may lead the league in shots but they’re low quality shots. We will continue to struggle to score. Who’s going to score the goals?
5) The league is built on offense. The rules are to encourage offense. You can no longer hook and hold. And now you can’t use your stick. The league is promoting skill and our team is built on goalies and defensemen. We’re built from the net out when other teams are built on offense. Offense beats defense the way the games are called. So this team is wrongly constructed and goes against the trend of the rest of the league.
6) We have no game breaking prospects. We have guys who will make the team but nobody who’ll make a huge impact so help isn’t coming from within. Not to mention few prospects to trade.
7) We have the worst center depth in the league including the bottom dwellers.
8) Our top scorer is not someone who scores off the in zone cycle. He scores off speed and counter attack. He needs PMDs to get him the puck on a breakout so he can use his speed and shot. The whole left-sided defense is gone including Markov. Plus he hasn’t scored a PPG in 30+ games.
9) Drouin is our #1 center. Listen to Ferraro and McGuire who explain why he should be on the wing. If he plays center he has to start from deep in the D zone and he’s less available in the offensive zone to make plays. Obviously this means we have no other option but to keep him where he is because we have no other centers.
10) Half our top six and half our top two defensemen are kids. If we’re already in a funk, that’s way too much to expect from them. They’re high in the depth chart and in the lines that matter. We have no one else to put there instead.
11) We were complaining about lack of offense last year when we had Radulov and Markov. Now we have neither. And have added Drouin. We have less offense than last year.
I could go on but this team is going nowhere. Don’t expect a light bulb to suddenly turn on.
Last edited:
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
Those are all valid points but I think my point was more prescient for now. The light bulb came on, enjoy the ride.
You do realize that we’ve won 3 out of our last 4 games and have moved one spot in the conference and are still bottom five in the league? The only place we’re riding to is mediocrity
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
Yes, I realize those things. I’m optimistic about this team because the effort has been there from game 1 and I’m actually enjoying the hockey on display. There’s speed and skill on every line. There is a clear difference in system from last year and I believe it will yield results. The coaching change was a step in the right direction.
I also think people underestimate how tough the schedule was to start the season.
I understand your optimism but we’ve stormed out the gate in the last few seasons and fizzled. We have a lot of holes on this team, have a worse team than last year and a lot of youth in important positions. Anyways, we have to win all three games to have a chance at playoffs. Falling back six points will end the season.
sholi2000
No One Gets Left Behind
sholi2000
No One Gets Left Behind
This is so true. Not to mention all the changes, a weak defense core and our Carey playing average to good goaltending. All that will change for the better.
I look ahead a see more wins than losses.
Effort doesn’t make any difference if you don’t have enough skill. Bottom three and last in the conference. Winnipeg and Chicago up next. Still confident?
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
I guess I am, everything that's transpired reinforces the point I originally made and that you wanted reported. I predicted .500 by the end of November after getting beat 4-0 by LA. Since then, we're 6-2. The predictions of not making the playoffs at this point in the season were ridiculous complete with posters showing how it was virtually impossible. That's the thing, the data is always changing, and it can change radically in just a few games this early in the season.
In any case, what I said still stands. The team was playing well just not getting results. Now with goaltending, the results are there and the team is competitive every game. Not saying we're winning the cup, but the doom and gloom crowd was clearly premature in its conclusions.
.500 by November and the opportunity is there to gain a foothold in the playoffs, from which anything can happen with great goaltending, timely scoring, luck, favourable matchups, etc. I'd rather that than lose for years on end without any more guarantees we now have. Plus, I'm enjoying watching this crew come together, develop. It' a 30 team league with a salary cap with everyone more or less operating with similar information/tools. It sucks that we can't use our market/financial position to greater effect (like say the premier clubs in European football), but here we are.
That said, yesterday's game was pretty dull for most of it. Finale was good.
Frankenheimer
Sir, this is an Arber
So you’re one of those that only pipe up after a win and disappear after a loss? You realize that all the teams behind us and ahead of us have played more games? If they win their games in hand we’re second last? And we needed overtime to beat Buffalo who’s currently in second last? If you were right, we would have won that game convincingly.
This team is going through a youth transition. We have eight regulars 24 and under. We won’t catch Toronto, Tampa and Ottawa. Washington occupies a wild card and we won’t pass them. So there’s one spot.
It ain’t happening this year. Yesterday made it so obvious.
Not bad, i wasnt that far off , i only got the Chicago Game wrong. The Habs did even better that i predicted , i said 6-4 they went 7-3
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