Speculation: [POOL'S CLOSED] Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXI

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Apparently sources told sources that told a reporter that one GM is prepared to offersheet Marner to a 12.5M AAV if I understand that rumor correctly. I wonder if Fenton’s involved in any of that.

I sure as hell hope not

 

[AKL]

I sure as hell hope not

I don’t think I’d hate Marner for 8 years at 12.5. It’s expensive, but he’s a top forward in the league going forward. Shades of Patrick Kane.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Apparently sources told sources that told a reporter that one GM is prepared to offersheet Marner to a 12.5M AAV if I understand that rumor correctly. I wonder if Fenton’s involved in any of that.

Just for fun (I know it's not happening):

Zucker for a 2019/2020 1st
Brodin or Spurgeon for a 2019/2020 1st
Still have our 2019 1st

Marner at $12.5M
Fiala, Donato, Eriksson Ek and Sturm on bridges totaling $8.25M
Gardiner signed at $6M

Fiala - Staal - Marner
Parise - Koivu - Kunin
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Donato
Foligno - Rask - Mayhew
Sturm
Brown

Suter - Dumba
Gardiner - Spurgeon (or Gardiner - Brodin)
Seeler - Pateryn
7th D

Dubnyk
Stalock

Cap space ~ $1M ($2M if Spurgeon is traded instead of Brodin)

 

[AKL]

Just for fun (I know it's not happening):

Zucker for a 2019/2020 1st
Brodin or Spurgeon for a 2019/2020 1st
Still have our 2019 1st

Marner at $12.5M
Fiala, Donato, Eriksson Ek and Sturm on bridges totaling $8.25M
Gardiner signed at $6M

Fiala - Staal - Marner
Parise - Koivu - Kunin
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Donato
Foligno - Rask - Mayhew
Sturm
Brown

Suter - Dumba
Gardiner - Spurgeon (or Gardiner - Brodin)
Seeler - Pateryn
7th D

Dubnyk
Stalock

Cap space ~ $1M ($2M if Spurgeon is traded instead of Brodin)

Maybe we could actually use one of those three 1sts to get a center too, cause wow that looks bad down the middle.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I don’t think I’d hate Marner for 8 years at 12.5. It’s expensive, but he’s a top forward in the league going forward. Shades of Patrick Kane.

I would give my left ball to sign Marner, even at12.5, but not at the expense of 4 1sts when we already have a weak prospect pool, an aging team, and no top 6 centers. Marner to Kaprizov would be amazing for years, and I like our depth on the wing for the future with Kunin, Fiala, greenway, Parise, Donato, on top of Kaprizov and Marner, but we would have no money to get any centers. I guess if we traded Zucker for 14/16 and drafted Newhook and Krebs/Tomasino/Suzuki, then I would consider it, but I still don’t know how we’d ever make the cap work.

 

[Spurgeon]

I don't know if losing your next 4 1st round picks is a great idea for a team with one of the worst prospect pools in the league. So Fenton is probably the GM in question.

 

[AKL]

I don't know if losing your next 4 1st round picks is a great idea for a team with one of the worst prospect pools in the league. So Fenton is probably the GM in question.

We’re not really lacking middle six, complementary and support players. We do lack a top 6 center or two, but who knows if we’d actually address that with one of those picks anyway. What we really need is a high end, elite scoring forward. That’s what Marner represents. So while it would suck to lose four 1sts, they likely wouldn’t be early 1sts, and likely wouldn’t land us a player of Marner’s caliber.

 

[Spurgeon]

We’re not really lacking middle six, complementary and support players. We do lack a top 6 center or two, but who knows if we’d actually address that with one of those picks anyway. What we really need is a high end, elite scoring forward. That’s what Marner represents. So while it would suck to lose four 1sts, they likely wouldn’t be early 1sts, and likely wouldn’t land us a player of Marner’s caliber.

If we had actually gotten picks back in our trades this year, I'd be slightly more okay with an offersheet.

That said, I don't believe adding Marner + Gardiner and subtracting Zucker + Spurgeon/Brodin is a significant improvement of this team.

 

[Sarge58]

I agree with AKL, I would go for Marner at the cost of 4 firsts, It would suck but if you can get a young superstar you do it. We'll suddenly become a younger team with ligit talant. Fenton would have to his due diligence and draft well in the later rounds and maybe he could make a trade or two to make up for one of the firsts.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So if Toronto came to us with an offer of Zucker + Brodin + two 1sts from 2020 to 2023, some people here would say no?

I’m not sure I could say ‘yes’ fast enough.

 

[AKL]

So if Toronto came to us with an offer of Zucker + Brodin + two 1sts from 2020 to 2023, some people here would say no?

I’m not sure I could say ‘yes’ fast enough.

For Marner? That would be a yes from me.
Especially if I could pick which years the picks go. I’ve heard 2020 and 2022 are both very good drafts.

 

[Spurgeon]

Not having 4 1st round picks would really suck if we missed the playoffs a few of those years. That lineup with Marner doesn't look much better than what we're fielding now. So much would hinge on Ek, Kunin, Greenway, Donato, and Fiala being good players immediately. That's certainly not a risk I'd take.

 

[AKL]

Not having 4 1st round picks would really suck if we missed the playoffs a few of those years. That lineup with Marner doesn't look much better than what we're fielding now. So much would hinge on Ek, Kunin, Greenway, Donato, and Fiala being good players immediately. That's certainly not a risk I'd take.

Marner/Gardiner is a substantial improvement over Zucker/Brodin. It’s really not close.

 

[Spurgeon]

Marner/Gardiner is a substantial improvement over Zucker/Brodin. It’s really not close.

It's also almost $10M more. I think Zucker + Brodin + Duchene + 2 1sts > Marner/Gardiner

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's also almost $10M more. I think Zucker + Brodin + Duchene + 2 1sts > Marner/Gardiner

I’d much, much, much rather pay 22 year old Marner $12 than 28 year old Duchene $10.

 

[Spurgeon]

I’d much, much, much rather pay 22 year old Marner $12 than 28 year old Duchene $10.

The jump from Duchene to Marner shouldn't be worth Zucker, Brodin, and 2 1sts.

 

[AKL]

The jump from Duchene to Marner shouldn't be worth Zucker, Brodin, and 2 1sts.

Why though? Marner is going to be a better player for much longer. Zucker is gone anyway, Brodin is an average middle pairing defenseman who provides very little in the way of offense, and the two firsts are likely to be middle sixers who don’t move the needle. This organization has already proven that you can’t just get 9 middle 6 players and compete. It’s a stars league, you need stars.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Just for fun (I know it's not happening):

Zucker for a 2019/2020 1st
Brodin or Spurgeon for a 2019/2020 1st
Still have our 2019 1st

Marner at $12.5M
Fiala, Donato, Eriksson Ek and Sturm on bridges totaling $8.25M
Gardiner signed at $6M

Fiala - Staal - Marner
Parise - Koivu - Kunin
Greenway - Eriksson Ek - Donato
Foligno - Rask - Mayhew
Sturm
Brown

Suter - Dumba
Gardiner - Spurgeon (or Gardiner - Brodin)
Seeler - Pateryn
7th D

Dubnyk
Stalock

Cap space ~ $1M ($2M if Spurgeon is traded instead of Brodin)

Yes, I think the loss of 4 future 1sts could be nicely offset by proper trading of other players over the next ~4 years.

Marner is worth a shot. I think you get him and you then purge cap to get Duchene as well.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I’d much, much, much rather pay 22 year old Marner $12 than 28 year old Duchene $10.

Why not both? Suter, Parise, and Staal are locked in. Koivu and Rask coming off the books in the next year will free tons of cap at the center position.

 

[AKL]

Yes, I think the loss of 4 future 1sts could be nicely offset by proper trading of other players over the next ~4 years.

Marner is worth a shot. I think you get him and you then purge cap to get Duchene as well.

Why not both? Suter, Parise, and Staal are locked in. Koivu and Rask coming off the books in the next year will free tons of cap at the center position.

Cap space next year doesn’t help us fit both this year. And Rask isn’t coming off the books next year unless we want to trade him for a conditional 6th rounder. Other than that, you’d have to trade Zucker exclusively for futures without any cap coming back, and I doubt many teams are interested in that. Koivu or Rask would need to be moved this summer, and I know which one would be easier to move, and it’s not the one we want to move.

And after all that, maybe you can keep Spurgeon and still get the young guys signed to cheap longer term contracts or cheaper bridges. Maybe.

 

[Spurgeon]

Why though? Marner is going to be a better player for much longer. Zucker is gone anyway, Brodin is an average middle pairing defenseman who provides very little in the way of offense, and the two firsts are likely to be middle sixers who don’t move the needle. This organization has already proven that you can’t just get 9 middle 6 players and compete. It’s a stars league, you need stars.

Vegas proved that you could.

Giving up 4 1st round picks is just not a smart long-term play whatsoever. It relies far too heavily on the supporting cast around Marner, which is still a major question mark. There is absolutely no guarantee that adding Marner + Gardiner and subtracting Zucker + Brodin would result in this team making the playoffs. We'd then be stuck in a position where we have no cap maneuverability and no high-end draft picks to look forward to. This honestly seems like a terrible idea, given the state of our prospect pool and center situation. The much safer route is to retain our picks and use the $10M that we have on a UFA center like Duchene. We then are able to evaluate our roster on a year-to-year basis, while still having all of our picks if we finish in the bottom 3rd of the league.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Vegas also proved that you don't need a rockstar top 4 defense to get to the Cup finals.

There's also no guarantee that the 4 1st rounders turn into anything as good as Marner, even all together.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The jump from Duchene to Marner shouldn't be worth Zucker, Brodin, and 2 1sts.

If it's not, it's not a whole lot less than that.

And who says that we're even on Duchene's radar, even at $10 million.

 

[AKL]

Vegas proved that you could.

Giving up 4 1st round picks is just not a smart long-term play whatsoever. It relies far too heavily on the supporting cast around Marner, which is still a major question mark. There is absolutely no guarantee that adding Marner + Gardiner and subtracting Zucker + Brodin would result in this team making the playoffs. We'd then be stuck in a position where we have no cap maneuverability and no high-end draft picks to look forward to. This honestly seems like a terrible idea, given the state of our prospect pool and center situation. The much safer route is to retain our picks and use the $10M that we have on a UFA center like Duchene. We then are able to evaluate our roster on a year-to-year basis, while still having all of our picks if we finish in the bottom 3rd of the league.

Vegas made a miracle run last year that they couldn’t replicate this year with a much better roster. You want to bank on catching a 90 yard hail mary every season?

And again, I’m telling you, you need stars in this league to win. Boston, St. Louis, and almost everyone else that went anywhere in the playoffs this year has star players who shoe up and produce when needed. Minnesota has no one like that. Depth is only depth when it’s supporting high end individuals.

And not all draft picks are the same. How many more middle 6 players do we need to draft in the 15-20 range? Greenway, Kunin, Kaprizov, Ek are likely just as good as what we’ll get if we keep our picks.

We already have the supporting cast in place. We need the Marner.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And who says Kaprizov doesn't come in and make one of Fiala/Greenway/Donato expendable for another 1st rounder, should they make a reasonable jump up.