Player Discussion: 2015 NHL Entry Draft - 4, 24, 65, 95, 107, 125, 155, 185

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Of course there's a chance he's there at #24, but most rankings has him in the mid teens and I haven't seen a ranking with him past #20 yet; a good showing in the MC won't help his cause of dropping.

NHL central scouting has him ranked 23rd among NA skaters. Add in the top 7 EU's and you can definitely paint more than realistic chance of him sitting there in mid twenties.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

NHL central scouting has him ranked 23rd among NA skaters. Add in the top 7 EU's and you can definitely paint more than realistic chance of him sitting there in mid twenties.

ISS - 18
FC - 17
Pronman - 18
Bob Mac (From Jan.) - 19
THN - 15
McKeen (From March) - 17

 

[Rare Jewel]

I'd like him to be there at 24, He's got to stop lighting it up though.


He's the dub's Mitch Marner, And considering the range he's in, He could be a nice pick if he does make down to where we are.

 

[snizzbone*]

I wasn't impressed with Merkley in the one game I've seen him irl, so we shouldn't try to draft him.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

All this talk about our 2 first rounders, we forget about another pick that usually gets (un)warranted hype and praise: The 7th round Bergman Special.

The last 3 drafts, the 7th rounders have been used on obscure Swedes usually not seen on rankings. With Hunter on board, does the Swede train stop here?

 

[cookie]

I'm not saying we should be drafting Crouse with the #4 pick but the same argument that Barzal gets (ie., weak offensive team) should be used for him as well. Sam Bennett could have been the Frontenacs' top player but he only played 15~ games for Kingston. IIRC, Crouse's production was ~1.5 ppg during that time frame... that's a good 70-90 points in a full season depending on if Bennett stayed healthy (and in the OHL) and developed chemisty with him and Watson.

But yeah, we can't go wrong with either one of Hanifin, Marner or Strome at #4. My heart goes with Marner but my head goes with either Strome or Hanifin. I find it kind of interesting how in the most recent mock draft, the Arizona fan base selected Strome while the Leafs fan base is set on one of Hanifin or Marner.

The interesting part of both Strome and Marner's production is that BECAUSE they were playing with skilled guys like McDavid, Domi, Dvorak, and whomever, their points production rate suffered. For Strome, less ice time having to play behind McDavid, and for Marner, playing alongside Domi (less points per 60min) were reasons why the players' production suffered. Kind of hard to believe...

 

[Leafs at Knight]

All this talk about our 2 first rounders, we forget about another pick that usually gets (un)warranted hype and praise: The 7th round Bergman Special.

The last 3 drafts, the 7th rounders have been used on obscure Swedes usually not seen on rankings. With Hunter on board, does the Swede train stop here?

No, if anything it's full steam ahead.

 

[cookie]

All this talk about our 2 first rounders, we forget about another pick that usually gets (un)warranted hype and praise: The 7th round Bergman Special.

The last 3 drafts, the 7th rounders have been used on obscure Swedes usually not seen on rankings. With Hunter on board, does the Swede train stop here?

I sure hope not. Engvall, Johnson, Loov, maybe Nilsson and Granberg as well, have all surpassed expectations with the progression they've had.

Engvall was #3 in overall scoring last year in the SuperElit (playing for Frolunda J20... next highest scoring teammate was ranked #31 in scoring wtf)

Johnson's gotten enough love as it is

Loov's one of the better Marlies defensemen.

All three guys were 7th round picks. That's crazy consistent. It's magic-like even. The other two Swedes have had pretty nice international positions on their resumes as well and tastes of AHL AND NHL ice. We're talking 4th rounders here, btw. I know it might be conjecture, but I'd bet that Bergmann was also the reason why Nylander was chosen even though he was incorrectly thought of being a "diva". This is a super scout and if the Leafs were to have him handle all the picks, we will eventually be able to ice Team Sweden one day.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

ISS - 18
FC - 17
Pronman - 18
Bob Mac (From Jan.) - 19
THN - 15
McKeen (From March) - 17

Thank you, muffin. I enjoy using elite prospects as well. You stated you hadn't seen him past twenty. I simply gave you an example.

 

[Mess]

I'd like him to be there at 24, He's got to stop lighting it up though.

He's the dub's Mitch Marner, And considering the range he's in, He could be a nice pick if he does make down to where we are.

He is too good to realistically be on the board at #24, and I'd guess low-mid teens (12-16 range).

Konecny or Merkley would be nice consolation prizes if the Leafs don't get Marner as similar type players size and style.

But if the Leafs want either of those they will need to trade up 10 draft spots from 24 to ~ 14 range to a realistic shot at them. IMO

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Merkley likely won't last to the Leafs pick with the way he is playing. He is not a surprise to me. I always thought he was one of the better players in the draft. He's better than he was earlier this season, liked him then, like him more today. The only hope is Fabbri slide due to his size last year when he too had a big playoffs. Difference is, Merkley is actually 191lbs, not small at all.

 

[Mess]

I'm not saying we should be drafting Crouse with the #4 pick but the same argument that Barzal gets (ie., weak offensive team) should be used for him as well. Sam Bennett could have been the Frontenacs' top player but he only played 15~ games for Kingston. IIRC, Crouse's production was ~1.5 ppg during that time frame... that's a good 70-90 points in a full season depending on if Bennett stayed healthy (and in the OHL) and developed chemisty with him and Watson.

But yeah, we can't go wrong with either one of Hanifin, Marner or Strome at #4. My heart goes with Marner but my head goes with either Strome or Hanifin. I find it kind of interesting how in the most recent mock draft, the Arizona fan base selected Strome while the Leafs fan base is set on one of Hanifin or Marner.

The interesting part of both Strome and Marner's production is that BECAUSE they were playing with skilled guys like McDavid, Domi, Dvorak, and whomever, their points production rate suffered. For Strome, less ice time having to play behind McDavid, and for Marner, playing alongside Domi (less points per 60min) were reasons why the players' production suffered. Kind of hard to believe...

That is due to attempting to draft BPA by Arizona deciding between the #1C and #1D man as to what makes the most sense.

 

[Silver91]

All three guys were 7th round picks. That's crazy consistent. It's magic-like even. The other two Swedes have had pretty nice international positions on their resumes as well and tastes of AHL AND NHL ice. We're talking 4th rounders here, btw. I know it might be conjecture, but I'd bet that Bergmann was also the reason why Nylander was chosen even though he was incorrectly thought of being a "diva". This is a super scout and if the Leafs were to have him handle all the picks, we will eventually be able to ice Team Sweden one day.

As much as I like the picks and think they have potential to be impact players, we can't say that they're really anything special until they've proven they can play in the NHL and stick. Until then, they're still long-shots and you can't say that they're still in with the like of Vorobiev, Mikus, Olden, Ruegsegger, Didomenico, and so many more who were late round picks that intrigued us all but ended up flaming out. Gunnarson is the last actual pick that has become something, and that's not a knock against Bergman, but of our "Swedish Specials", you have to go back to him to find the last European draftee to play more than a handful of games (and other than Frattin, the only Pick we've made outside the first 3 rounds to play more than a handful of games since the 2006 draft)

 

[theIceWookie]

He likely would have been quite productive. However, I am simply using apples to apples and the information that currently exists. All else being equal, he's outside the top ten. Not a knock on Willie, just a testament to the depth of quality in this years draft.

How are you using apples to apples when the leagues they played in were oranges to apples?

I get it, the draft always produces "this draft year better than last year".

I don't think you can ever really say so and so player would only be here and here in this drFt.

And I'll say it now, the reason this draft is good is because of mceichel. Outside of that it's above average but not some special draft

 

[Smif]

As much as I like the picks and think they have potential to be impact players, we can't say that they're really anything special until they've proven they can play in the NHL and stick. Until then, they're still long-shots and you can't say that they're still in with the like of Vorobiev, Mikus, Olden, Ruegsegger, Didomenico, and so many more who were late round picks that intrigued us all but ended up flaming out. Gunnarson is the last actual pick that has become something, and that's not a knock against Bergman, but of our "Swedish Specials", you have to go back to him to find the last European draftee to play more than a handful of games (and other than Frattin, the only Pick we've made outside the first 3 rounds to play more than a handful of games since the 2006 draft)

Stralman was the last one. Still lots of hope for Johnson. I think a late round gem shouldn't be expected more than once every 8-10 years per team. That might even be high, that's 3 7th round gems per draft.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

How are you using apples to apples when the leagues they played in were oranges to apples?

I get it, the draft always produces "this draft year better than last year".

I don't think you can ever really say so and so player would only be here and here in this drFt.

And I'll say it now, the reason this draft is good is because of mceichel. Outside of that it's above average but not some special draft

Apples to apples in the sense that it's draft year to draft year. Simply hypothetically taking William Nylander at 17, and dropping him into this year's draft.

It's simply an opinion of course. I see a very clear cut top 12 that he would have trouble breaking.

McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome, Provorov, Werenski, Crouse, Zacha, Rantanen, Connor, and Barzal.

 

[Silver91]

Stralman was the last one. Still lots of hope for Johnson. I think a late round gem shouldn't be expected more than once every 8-10 years per team. That might even be high, that's 3 7th round gems per draft.

Stralman was drafted 2 years before Gunnarson. Unless you're saying Gunnarson isn't a useful NHLer...

Also, you're missing my point (unless you're just going on to agree with me in some roundabout way?). I never said there's not hope for Johnson, just that you can't really call it a win until he's played in the NHL for more than a cup of coffee (which he's yet to do).

Also, I'm not expecting 7th round gems, I didn't even say anything about the 7th round. But, finding players in rounds 4-7 shouldn't be as scarce as it has been for us in the last 8 years. 1 Player to become a regular since the 07 draft is nothing to applaud, and I think that's going to change moving forward, but you still can't say that these guys (Johnsson, Loov, Engvall) are great picks if they haven't really accomplished anything yet...

Apples to apples in the sense that it's draft year to draft year. Simply hypothetically taking William Nylander at 17, and dropping him into this year's draft.

It's simply an opinion of course. I see a very clear cut top 12 that he would have trouble breaking.

McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin, Marner, Strome, Provorov, Werenski, Crouse, Zacha, Rantanen, Connor, and Barzal.

I'd take him over Rantanen for sure, and I'd have to think long and hard about the underlined players, Connor and Provorov would be the more difficult ones to pass up. So 8-12 is where he's slot, IMO, pretty much where he was ranked last year.

 

[ChrisCall]

As much as I like the picks and think they have potential to be impact players, we can't say that they're really anything special until they've proven they can play in the NHL and stick. Until then, they're still long-shots and you can't say that they're still in with the like of Vorobiev, Mikus, Olden, Ruegsegger, Didomenico, and so many more who were late round picks that intrigued us all but ended up flaming out. Gunnarson is the last actual pick that has become something, and that's not a knock against Bergman, but of our "Swedish Specials", you have to go back to him to find the last European draftee to play more than a handful of games (and other than Frattin, the only Pick we've made outside the first 3 rounds to play more than a handful of games since the 2006 draft)

Much as it is equally a reason why Gauthier gets unfairly criticized, the reality is that only a fraction of late round picks ever amount to anything. Even a rate of 1 in 10, or 1 in 8 picks after the 3rd round being meaningful NHL players is a success story. Anything better is far and away beating the odds.

But also to be remembered is that only high end 1st round picks are ever relevant in the NHL from their Draft year or by the age of 20. Of those players taken in later rounds, the vast majority of those who become contributing NHL players do not break in until 23+ years of age, with 23 being a really early bar. So i would suggest that it is too early to really say with any picks 2010 and onwards.

By the odds, Gunnarsson alone is a win in the 2007 draft and any extra players would be beating the odds. He is himself already beating the odds.

In 2008, the leafs may have traded their Greg Pateryn pick, and he may not be a total steal, but it appears that he and MacWilliam have become serviceable. A gem is always better, but two serviceable players at the back end of the draft is still beating the odds... and if we are to take quality into account, it is at least getting the job done? They got Gunnar the previous year.

If it is strictly the matter of 'Bergman Specials' ... Petter Granberg is one of only two taken in 2008 to 2010. And it is simply too early to tell for any more recent drafts. Tom Nilsson is the only euro pick from 2011 and he was runner up for rookie of the year. Not sure i can ask for more?

 

[Silver91]

Much as it is equally a reason why Gauthier gets unfairly criticized, the reality is that only a fraction of late round picks ever amount to anything. Even a rate of 1 in 10, or 1 in 8 picks after the 3rd round being meaningful NHL players is a success story. Anything better is far and away beating the odds.

Not debating the rate of how many players make it. I mean, you could say that it is an average, so teams that are below the average are the ones who bring it closer to their "production" and that there are teams that do better than that. Personally, drafting is heavily won in rounds 1-3. You have to hit on players in those rounds because it is rare to find gems in the latter rounds

By the odds, Gunnarsson alone is a win in the 2007 draft and any extra players would be beating the odds. He is himself already beating the odds.

In 2008, the leafs may have traded their Greg Pateryn pick, and he may not be a total steal, but it appears that he and MacWilliam have become serviceable. A gem is always better, but two serviceable players at the back end of the draft is still beating the odds... and if we are to take quality into account, it is at least getting the job done? They got Gunnar the previous year.

Pateryn and MacWilliam may become serviceable players, but they could also end up being 7th Dman/Perma AHLers. Again, they haven't really shown they can stick yet, and as such you can't call them wins.

If it is strictly the matter of 'Bergman Specials' ... Petter Granberg is one of only two taken in 2008 to 2010. And it is simply too early to tell for any more recent drafts. Tom Nilsson is the only euro pick from 2011 and he was runner up for rookie of the year. Not sure i can ask for more?

I agree, they are guys who have the potential to carve out NHL careers, BUT, my point is that they haven't, so they can't be called wins, yet. I'm not closing the books on any of these players, in fact I'm a big fan of Nilsson and Johnson, but I'm not calling them wins until they've proven they can stick in the NHL, even as serviceable players.

 

[Smif]

Did the Euro picks decrease during the Burke era?

 

[Mess]

Did the Euro picks decrease during the Burke era?

2009 entry draft ..

There were no Europeans selected by the Maple Leafs this summer after years of relying on European talent.

"That wasn't a big accident either," Burke said. "I think European players are important in our League, they provided an element of skill and no team has won a Cup without European players. They are a vital part of things. But I think the mix has to be right, too.

"If you are going to play the way we are going to play, I think you need some pick-and- shovel men and I think we are looking for that type of player here."

That's because Burke, who took over the Toronto job in late November, believes his team needs to play a physical, in-your-face style to be successful.

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=461815

Burke directed his scouts to pick specific types of players and I think Hunter, Dubas will focus on skill and not looking for "pick and shovel" type picks and avoiding Euro's as they often represent that skill factor.

Shanny directed his guys to draft Nylander and that was the first change in drafting strategy.

 

[Smif]

2009 entry draft ..



Burke directed his scouts to pick specific types of players and I think Hunter, Dubas will focus on skill and not looking for "pick and shovel" type picks and avoiding Euro's as they often represent that skill factor.

Shanny directed his guys to draft Nylander and that was the first change in drafting strategy.

Oh ya, forgot about that.

 

[Mess]

Oh ya, forgot about that.

Shanny and Hunter fired all Burke's amateur scouts this summer in a major house cleaning and are rebuilding their own team now with Lindsay Hofford and Jim Paliafito ect and I think this is going to be the start of new era where our drafting success increases with better scouting eyes on the prize.

 

[X66]

Shanny and Hunter fired all Burke's amateur scouts this summer in a major house cleaning and are rebuilding their own team now with Lindsay Hofford and Jim Paliafito ect and I think this is going to be the start of new era where our drafting success increases with better scouting eyes on the prize.

And hopefully more picks.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Thank you, muffin. I enjoy using elite prospects as well. You stated you hadn't seen him past twenty. I simply gave you an example.

You also said there's a realistic chance of him being there in the mid 20's using your one list you posted, that's why I posted 6 others that had him in the teens, to show that there's a bigger chance he won't be there when we pick..