Phoenix CXXX: Sock it to ME

[pfp]

Were the tarps on the 4 sections last night?

I was at the game and while I didn't look if the sections were tarped off I can't imagine that I would have missed this if they were. Therefore I can say with 95% confidence that they were not.

 

[pfp]

According to my sources, AEG General Manager Dale Adams stated it was not a sellout and there was between 14,000-15,000 people there...

seats sold <> butts in seats

 

[pfp]

I'm really not hung up on attendance either. Was more curious about if they were really tarping those corner sections off or not and given the announced attendance the other night and I confirmed it with an STH who was there.

Doesn't mean they won't do it for later games though. Really just curious to know if this was something the "old IA" dreamed up and Barroway decided to nix it too??

They stated that the sections would not be tarped off for certain games. Home opener seems logical. I'm sure Chicago and Detroit will be tarpless as well.

 

[awfulwaffle]

Ha now that hockey has started, onto the attendance issue.

Keep in mind people were having trouble with Stub Hub. Not sure if most of the people or all were able to have the issues corrected, but there were facebook posts in a Coyotes group of people calling service reps multiple times and still not able to get access to the tickets they purchased. Take that for what it's worth though.

 

[Killion]

As for the ramifications of poor attendance, it is the defining number that will ultimately determine how long this regime can continue to lose money before they are forced to consider alternative scenarios for the future of the franchise. Nobody in this league can afford to lose $15-40MM per year and remain solvent. The league can only do so much to prop up those losses before even they have to throw in the white towel. The next 15 or so home games, prior to yearend, will be the largest determining factor as to whether or not Andy will resign the lease to play another year at GRA.

Yes of course to the first few sentences... to the last bit, I'm quite sure the Lease will be auto-renewed on December 31st, 2017.... dont believe its 110% indicative that the team stays put for 2018/19, nothing onerous in terms of an early exit clause. Not signing it without a very valid reason for not doing so would be an absolute disaster January~April in terms of attendance so really mesa, pretty much a given they sign, giving every sign/indication that they plan to stick around beyond this season, pursuing whatever avenues they can in seeking an East Valley or Downtown location. That process as theyve stated "just beginning". How would it look if in December, not 2.5mnths away they just come out & pull the plug? Not gunna happen.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

According to the STH I talked to they were not.

They were not tarped.

I also saw seats occupied in every suite on the side of the arena I could see except for one.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

According to my sources, AEG General Manager Dale Adams stated it was not a sellout and there was between 14,000-15,000 people there...

With your inherent bias, why on earth would anyone believe your 'sources'? 3 people that were in the building reported seats sold in every section, no sections tarped off, and as previously stated no-shows <> no sellout.

You have no leg to stand on, sir. Again.

 

[TheLegend]

With your inherent bias, why on earth would anyone believe your 'sources'? 3 people that were in the building reported seats sold in every section, no sections tarped off, and as previously stated no-shows <> no sellout.

You have no leg to stand on, sir. Again.

From what I've been seeing from fans..... AEG needs to do more to take care of the ice system and the cluster**** they have with their electronic ticketing, than worrying about how many butts there are in the seats.

 

[MNNumbers]

From what I've been seeing from fans..... AEG needs to do more to take care of the ice system and the cluster**** they have with their electronic ticketing, than worrying about how many butts there are in the seats.

Of course I don't know anyone there at all, but I was afraid AEG was the wrong choice for Glendale. SMG may have been better....

 

[TheLegend]

Of course I don't know anyone there at all, but I was afraid AEG was the wrong choice for Glendale. SMG may have been better....

Hard to say MNN (long time no see ). We never got to see the proposals from the groups who bid on the arena. SMG seems to be doing great a UoP next door though.

 

[Llama19]

With your inherent bias, why on earth would anyone believe your 'sources'? 3 people that were in the building reported seats sold in every section, no sections tarped off, and as previously stated no-shows <> no sellout.

You have no leg to stand on, sir. Again.

I have two perfectly good legs to stand on...thank you...

 

[MNNumbers]

Hard to say MNN (long time no see ). We never got to see the proposals from the groups who bid on the arena. SMG seems to be doing great a UoP next door though.

Long time no see, because the only thing happening is speculation. I have my speculation, too, but it doesn't add any value to the discussion.

Seems that December will offer some real news. Renewal? No renewal??

And, it will be a little bit of a proving time for the information from Mesa's source.

 

[TheLegend]

Long time no see, because the only thing happening is speculation. I have my speculation, too, but it doesn't add any value to the discussion.

Seems that December will offer some real news. Renewal? No renewal??

And, it will be a little bit of a proving time for the information from Mesa's source.

Agreed.... at this moment I expect them to renew for at least one more year. I know they were rumored to have been offered a short multi-year deal but if the terms were the same it wouldn't be in the Coyotes best interest to lock themselves in without knowing where they are on the new arena front (wherever it may be).

 

[Killion]

^^^ Ya, like I said earlier... pretty sure they'll renew or as you suggest TL, maybe a new mini-year dealeo or whatever. I cant see them taking the risk of not signing or at minimum not signing but announcing their negotiating a 2-3yr extension in late December early January. What answer do they give if December 31/17 flys by & no renewal, no announcement about negotiating an extension and 3-3.5mnths worth of hockey to go?. Bottom falls right out, thats what happens, and I dont see the organization & the league being that stupid... Dont forget as well you have Players & team personnel, Seasons Ticket Holders, Broadcaster & Sponsors. Beyond the obvious with players & team personnel, many people & companies need to know 1st 1/4 of every calendar year what is going on 3rd & 4th quarter, 1st & 2nd of the following year in order to budget, make plans, scheduling etc.

 

[MaskedSonja]

^^^ Ya, like I said earlier... pretty sure they'll renew or as you suggest TL, maybe a new mini-year dealeo or whatever. I cant see them taking the risk of not signing or at minimum not signing but announcing their negotiating a 2-3yr extension in late December early January. What answer do they give if December 31/17 flys by & no renewal, no announcement about negotiating an extension and 3-3.5mnths worth of hockey to go?. Bottom falls right out, thats what happens, and I dont see the organization & the league being that stupid... Dont forget as well you have Players & team personnel, Seasons Ticket Holders, Broadcaster & Sponsors. Beyond the obvious with players & team personnel, many people & companies need to know 1st 1/4 of every calendar year what is going on 3rd & 4th quarter, 1st & 2nd of the following year in order to budget, make plans, scheduling etc.

I havr to agree that the auto renewal woud happen at least. I can see this happening rach year until a long commit os reached new arena or relo. I dont ever see them being in a "no place to.play next season" situation.

 

[Glacial]

(checks calendar)
Happy Thanksgiving to our posters to the north!

 

[mesamonster]

I havr to agree that the auto renewal woud happen at least. I can see this happening rach year until a long commit os reached new arena or relo. I dont ever see them being in a "no place to.play next season" situation.

Everyone presumes that money is no object? IF you are losing prodigious sums every month why do you continue to renew?

 

[awfulwaffle]

That is barroways choice mesa. How much money are they really losing? Nobody really knows.

 

[awfulwaffle]

This team isn't in a bad spot with ownership or with the city. They simply need to renew for a year through AGE. Why would AGE not give them another year if the team wanted it? They no longer have to deal with the COG. It is laughable that everyone is still room and gloom on this team, but they are actually in one of their better positions. Now all they need to do is find a stadium on the east side.

 

[mesamonster]

That is barroways choice mesa. How much money are they really losing? Nobody really knows.

We have a reasonable idea of the amount by knowing what their attendance is, adding in all other expenses including his cost of capital. A rough estimate is that it costs about $90-100MM to operate the team. Revenues are well short of that, look back at past years when they have lost loads of money (despite the $15MM in COG subsidy). Seat revenues, RS, Development Fund revenue and all forms of media revenues come up well short. Don`t forget, the salary cap has risen far faster than the seat revenue, RS and DFR, are not changed by much.

I understand it is Barroways choice to continue down the road he is on, and he could have the resources to do so (though I doubt it). My question is if he has openly stated that he needs a new arena to help him avoid the financial hole he keeps digging why doesn`t he put up his $170MM or go ahead and buy a pile of dirt then go looking for partners to help him out? It is no secret that state or local funding is going to be almost impossible to obtain. Construction is a 3 year proposition from start to finish, which means at least three more years of heavy losses in Glendale. His present over leveraged position has issues when his cost basis continues to rise, pushing his breakeven level to a point that is well above his potential sale price. Bottom line: the numbers do not seem to add up, he quite simply is spending far more than he is making. You are an accountant, how many of your clients have thriving businesses that show yearly losses going back over 20 years?

My position has always been that the ownership has perpetually played on the financial edge meaning they have never been able to fully compete for players. They have had to manipulate the cap for years and look at what it has gotten them, 5 years of missed playoffs and a bucket full of financial losses, unless AB has scads of money he doesn`t mind losing I see his only way out is to find a local buyer or look for a relocation?

 

[awfulwaffle]

The dude has owned the team as a sole owner for 2 games. But keep this thread sliding a long on the ice it always has.

 

[powerstuck]

This team isn't in a bad spot with ownership or with the city. They simply need to renew for a year through AGE. Why would AGE not give them another year if the team wanted it? They no longer have to deal with the COG. It is laughable that everyone is still room and gloom on this team, but they are actually in one of their better positions. Now all they need to do is find a stadium on the east side.

That's the thing I don't understand.

There is no new arena being built. And even if there was...its at least 3 years built time.
There is no reasonable (read : better than Glendale) location currently available on short-term. Seattle ? At least 3 years away from a playable ice rink.
AEG is a major league partner (heck they are part owners) so they would not be the ones making trouble. I don't see AEG being against a 3-5 years deal with a FREE out clause. Does the city have any say ? Maybe, but then again, what motivation would they have to be against something like this.
For the sake of the fans, for everyone's sake, why is a 3-5 years deal for a bit of stability out of question ?

 

[mesamonster]

That's the thing I don't understand.

There is no new arena being built. And even if there was...its at least 3 years built time.
There is no reasonable (read : better than Glendale) location currently available on short-term. Seattle ? At least 3 years away from a playable ice rink.
AEG is a major league partner (heck they are part owners) so they would not be the ones making trouble. I don't see AEG being against a 3-5 years deal with a FREE out clause. Does the city have any say ? Maybe, but then again, what motivation would they have to be against something like this.
For the sake of the fans, for everyone's sake, why is a 3-5 years deal for a bit of stability out of question ?

The ownership group values flexibility over some measure of permanence. The fans and sponsors would certainly like the guidance that a multi year lease would provide. The fact that AB is unwilling to sign anything longer than a one year lease may well be an indicator signaling his intention to move on sooner than later. As I have always said, AB is not in this business for the sole enjoyment of owning an NHL franchise. He is primarily in this to make money. Longer lease agreements , while helpful to fans and advertisers does not fit with a hedge fund manager mentality. Their instincts are bottom line, not the fun line! The single aspect of this story that makes no sense is the mere fact that this is a bad business model in every way. Historical losses as far back as you want to look are testament to that fact. At this point AB`s only hope of ever coming out financially ahead is to sell this franchise to an in town deep pocketed buyer or sell to another owner in a relocated city. The idea that somehow if you hang on long enough you may start to realize cash flow is a pipe dream. Compound this issue with the fact that each subsequent year of ownership in the red pushes breakeven ever farther away. Makes no sense in an objective business world to those of us who find it hard to believe that AB will continue to be happy and seemingly proud while he is losing his shirt every year!

 

[Killion]

For the sake of the fans, for everyone's sake, why is a 3-5 years deal for a bit of stability out of question ?

I dont think it is "out of the question" ps, as stated earlier... They'll very likely either simply renew the year x year (which is actually a pretty good deal) on December 31st (highly unlikely theres an onerous early-exit fee) or sure, put together some sort of 2-3-5yr extended agreement with AEG & Glendale. We obviously just dont know. Wont know for another 2.5mnths. I dont think they'll fail to do one or the other though. Just how friendly this regime is (Barroway & Patterson), how willing they are to work with AEG & the COG we know not. Yes there have been statements made that under no circumstances can the team carry on at GRA & that they simply must have a new facility in the East Valley or in Downtown Phoenix proper however.....

Without any Deadlines, or certainly if there is one their not sharing it, no timetable, understanding that Barroways purchase of the club is highly leveraged.... not in a position to absorb heavy losses.... well, the whole situation as dumbfounding as its always been & as clear as mud. The franchise is still in a holding pattern having been recklessly re-fueled & re-financed mid-air on the backs of high interest lenders & the taxpayers just as it was in 2009 when the NHL bought the club out of BK & proceeded to put the screws to Glendale, then again in 2013. Whatever "deadlines" have existed (Jamison in 12/13) never met. Went whizzing bye. There are smart goals & dumb goals as we all know. Smart goals those that can be reasonably & confidently achieved. Yet all weve ever seen/heard? Dumb goals. Moon shots.

The very word "Dead-Line" was itself first coined during the American Civil War at Andersonville Prison. Suddenly 1000's of Troops captured, nowhere to put them but in hastily built camps. No walls or stockades so, created an invisible line, a "Dead-Line". Crossed it your were shot no questions asked. In real life, we all have Deadlines, we dont meet them, no pity. Lose your job, your home or whatever. Yet here with this situation. No "Deadlines". Why is that? Why for example didnt IA ever when ensconced at GRA receiving $15M a year from the taxpayer or Barroway this past summer set a reasonable goal, objective & Deadline in an open call to the people of the Valley of the Sun that "Look folks, situation untenable & critical where were at, need a new building which we are working towards but meanwhile we need you to step-up, target of 10,000 (or 12,500) Season Tickets need to be purchased, you need to show us you want to keep the team in Arizona"...

Thats a "smart goal". Sets a Deadline. Yet all we get is "were at the very beginning of the process" when in fact no, you are not. Worsleys' Bill was not a figment of everyones collective imagination, nor were the past 7yrs all just a bad dream.... and still, no real call to action, no goal other than to improve the club & a crazy Don Quixote like pursuit of a new arena, as when we were all children & time without measure, forever & immortality an actual concept we believed possible... and here we are, being treated, talked to like children, no drop dead date, no deadlines, no nothing that would spur a call to action or give anyone any real confidence that these guys have even the slightest clue as to how to turn the ship around. Ironic, appropriate they have a kid in the GM's seat & hey, I wish him luck but c'mon here. This isnt just a game. Real peoples lives are being affected in this Wonderland thats been created.

 

[mesamonster]

Another way to look at this is to ask,"why would you buy a business that has never made money?" Answer to sell it, this is what he is working toward, and his time is running out.