OT: Philadelphia Phillies: 2017 season

[whitstifier]

if matt could bring in two or three starting pitchers on a reasonable contract, who would they be?

i mean we won the world series in 08 we didnt have aces, we had good enough pitchers, if matt could bring two or three good enough pitchers, i think we can contend.

Phillies don't win in 2008 without Hamels. Pitched a combined 262 innings that season. I think that the last pitcher to have that much effect on a team between the regular season and playoffs was Bumgarner in 2014.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I'd prefer Stroman based off the fact he's 26. That's a big deal to me.

 

[trostol]

did we trade or sign any one today?

 

[whitstifier]

Do any of you catch broadcasts of Threshers games? There was a little blurb about Kirsten Karbach on Fangraphs today. Curious if she has a track to the MLB.

Looking forward to the day where the McCarthy and Murphy types are out of the booth. Probably unlikely given the inoffensiveness of bland.

A bit more on inclusivity, though I'm not sure if Karbach fits the criteria. It's embarrassing to have the public faces of a team unable to pronounce the names of its stars. Ideally, there should be one person in the booth who can speak Spanish.

 

[whitstifier]

Blowing up this thread lately...

I think fans are sleeping on Herrera and Hernandez. Aside from one month last season, Herrera's wRC+ was around 130, making him one of the best hitting CF in the game in that span. As for the 2B, injuries derailed the overall numbers. Think he could've wiped away a subpar month if he'd stayed healthy. WAR around 4 for both players seems feasible. Breakouts might be possible as well. (Projections for both players hover around 2 WAR. Too low!)

I can't get behind trading Herrera. Poor CF depth in the upper levels and Herrera's star level upside make the proposition of a trade pretty idiotic. I think I'd be more open to parting with Hoskins given his lack of position--that seems just as idiotic. Arguments for trading Hernandez I definitely understand, but giving him up might hurt more than fans are willing to admit.

Worth reiterating that Williams and Alfaro probably aren't going to develop into MLB regulars. Alfaro will need to really pick it up as a fielder next season because the hitting won't be there. And while I'm hopeful that Franco turns into a decent regular, I'm mostly resigned to the likelihood he's toast.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The one thing about Hernandez that scares me is a lot of his hitting value comes from infield hits. If he loses a step his value could plummet. Applies to defense as well.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Blowing up this thread lately...

I think fans are sleeping on Herrera and Hernandez. Aside from one month last season, Herrera's wRC+ was around 130, making him one of the best hitting CF in the game in that span. As for the 2B, injuries derailed the overall numbers. Think he could've wiped away a subpar month if he'd stayed healthy. WAR around 4 for both players seems feasible. Breakouts might be possible as well. (Projections for both players hover around 2 WAR. Too low!)

I can't get behind trading Herrera. Poor CF depth in the upper levels and Herrera's star level upside make the proposition of a trade pretty idiotic. I think I'd be more open to parting with Hoskins given his lack of position--that seems just as idiotic. Arguments for trading Hernandez I definitely understand, but giving him up might hurt more than fans are willing to admit.

Worth reiterating that Williams and Alfaro probably aren't going to develop into MLB regulars. Alfaro will need to really pick it up as a fielder next season because the hitting won't be there. And while I'm hopeful that Franco turns into a decent regular, I'm mostly resigned to the likelihood he's toast.

Williams played pretty damn well for half a season. Alfaro had 1 month and nothing consistent because old man MacKanin loved playing Rupp for no reason.

Not sure how you can determine they are already done.

 

[whitstifier]

Williams played pretty damn well for half a season. Alfaro had 1 month and nothing consistent because old man MacKanin loved playing Rupp for no reason.

Not sure how you can determine they are already done.

I think Alfaro has a better chance of being an interesting player if he sticks at catcher.

Unless Williams starts walking more, he's going to live and die by high average. Not sure if he's going to make enough contact or hit with enough power to keep him up. Got that Franceour profile...

 

[Rebels57]

It bothers me when fans write off young players careers best on statistics. Players regularly defy the odds.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I think it was Salisbury that said people he talked to seemed to indicate the Phils weren’t actively shopping Hernandez like expected. He thinks they’ll head in season with him until they find more out about Kingery.

 

[Halladay]

I am big believer in Altherr. Don't want him to be moved.

 

[whitstifier]

It bothers me when fans write off young players careers best on statistics. Players regularly defy the odds.

Sure, players regularly fail, too.

Both Alfaro and Williams have good power, high K% and low BB%. Williams makes better contact, but Alfaro has more power. They're hitters with bad approaches.

Alfaro will probably be okay because he's a catcher. Williams needs the bat to translate well to MLB since he can only play corner OF. However, if Altherr is healthy, he's a much better option.

Don't see the need to be patient with Williams given the system depth at corner OF. Feel the same way about Cozens, though it's amusing how his minors trajectory lines up with Judge's XD

I find it more frustrating when fans don't recognize MLB talent, like Herrera and view him as tradeable with the team's current makeup. Herrera's less than two years older than Williams and has shown much more upside/current ability.

 

[montreal]

Still not sure if I like the Santana move or not. Think he's a great fit for the young players but don't like Hoskins in LF. That said I wonder if they would consider selling high on Hoskins if there's someone willing to overpay. I would need to be a heck of a deal to give up on that power and I would hate to trade him though. For me I would trade anyone for the right price but you have to be real careful in moving your youth when you are still a few years away from contending unless they can really improve the SP.

The problem with trading is you have to give something good to get something good so will be interesting to see what moves they have lined up over the next year or two.

Heard that Appel and Seranthony Dominguez are being moved to the pen. Not sure why they are moving Dominguez there already, he's had some injury problems but I hear he's got one of the best arms in the system.

 

[whitstifier]

Do any of you catch broadcasts of Threshers games? There was a little blurb about Kirsten Karbach on Fangraphs today. Curious if she has a track to the MLB.

Looking forward to the day where the McCarthy and Murphy types are out of the booth. Probably unlikely given the inoffensiveness of bland.

A bit more on inclusivity, though I'm not sure if Karbach fits the criteria. It's embarrassing to have the public faces of a team unable to pronounce the names of its stars. Ideally, there should be one person in the booth who can speak Spanish.

Tom McCarthy's son hired to Iron Pigs broadcast team. Progressive!

 

[klutch]

Not thrilled with the Santana move. He's more of a 1-2 year rental but idk if it was the right time for us to sign him. Whatever, we can deff afford him

 

[Hiesenberg]

Williams seems to be learning how to walk. Walking is something that can be learned. I'm willing to give him the time. He's 24? Same with Alfaro, lets see if it can be developed.

Right now you have Hernandez/Hoskins/Santana/Crawford/Herrera that all work counts and get on base really well (Minors being assumed).

Having a lot of guys in the lineup that will do that can help a lot.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Walking is something that can be learned.

Not really. You can improve it slightly, but considering where he's starting from I wouldn't expect him to turn it around like Anthony Rizzo or anything. Same with Alfaro. He has a beautiful swing and he's fast as hell, but the approach is a serious red flag and he should be better defensively, but that isn't as big of a concern for me.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I'd prefer Stroman based off the fact he's 26. That's a big deal to me.

I like Stroman a lot. I would be psyched if they could get him, even if the cost was high. Not sure how far I would go and baseball is always tough to gauge in regards to prospect values and projections so what seems like a lot now has a good chance at being a steal a couple years down the road and vice versa depending on the package.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Not thrilled with the Santana move. He's more of a 1-2 year rental but idk if it was the right time for us to sign him. Whatever, we can deff afford him

Yeah It's really a low-risk move. The organization obviously sees Hoskins as a LFer and Santana is a good 1B. Show other free agents (cough...Harper...cough...Machado...cough) that they are willing to spend to put together a winning team. While money talks, if you get two comparable offers from a bona fide contender and a team with a bunch of kids, you're going to the contender. Adding Santana, a couple bullpen arms, and presumably a SP or two will signal to other players that Phillies are gearing up. You get a rebound year from Franco if he's still here and you're looking at potentially a playoff spot this year. If Franco can be Franco from two years ago and Hoskins either improves or is the same as last year, a 3-4-5 of some combination of Hoskins-Santana-Franco makes the rest of the lineup all the more better as well.

If Franco and Hoskins hit the way you want them to, and Hernandez and Odubel are here:

Hernandez
Odubel
Santana
Hoskins
Franco
Williams/Altheirr
Crawford
Alfaro
P

That's not a bad lineup, especially if Crawford and Alfaro start swinging.

 

[whitstifier]

Williams seems to be learning how to walk. Walking is something that can be learned. I'm willing to give him the time. He's 24? Same with Alfaro, lets see if it can be developed.

Right now you have Hernandez/Hoskins/Santana/Crawford/Herrera that all work counts and get on base really well (Minors being assumed).

Having a lot of guys in the lineup that will do that can help a lot.

There's not much point in being patient with Williams. If Altherr is healthy, Williams is the 4th OF. Altherr actually has a good approach; he's got to show durability.

Maybe if it were last year or the year prior, then I'd be more open to a Williams project in corner OF. However, the Phillies are close to being relevant again and patience with a player at a position of good depth is a waste of time.

The players worth some patience are Hoskins, Herrera, Crawford, Alfaro, and Franco. They all address positional needs or have hitting skills that can't get immediately replaced.

 

[SnS]

Patience and Franco are just polar opposites in my view. I would move on from him.

 

[whitstifier]

Patience and Franco are just polar opposites in my view. I would move on from him.

Don't get me wrong, I'm pretty much done with Franco, but the Phillies don't have anyone to replace him this season. He probably gets another season as the 3B regular. The FO still seems to have hope for him--low strikeouts, decent ability to field, and good power. They see a lot of upside if he elevates the ball more. If there's no growth after this season, they obviously opt to sign Donaldson or Machado.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The projections still like him.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Ok so there's like a couple weeks before the HOF announcements are made. Who is getting in? The ballots that have been released seem to suggest Hoffman, Thome, Chipper Jones, and Martinez are in and a couple other guys are somewhat close (Mussina, Guerrero, Bonds, Clemens all showing up on 50% or more ballots). I don't quite understand the case for Edgar Martinez as a HOFer. His traditional stats are not all that impressive, especially considering he played for a million years he didn't reach any "magic numbers." His advanced stats, of which I am no expert by any means, also don't appear to be HOF worthy. Less than half of his seasons he had a WAR over five and only once did he get to seven WAR, the rest of his career it was under five.

Then you get into the fact that he was pretty much exclusively a DH for like 15 years. I have no issue with a guy being a DH and getting into the HOF (Thome, Thomas, etc.), but you had better be putting up eye-popping numbers if that's where you play. Martinez simply does not have that.

Can someone who would vote Edgar Martinez in explain their decision? Am I missing something from the SABR world that people are hanging on to? Is this one of those "well he was the best at his position for a big part of his career" arguments?

 

[deadhead]

Kruk said he thought Hoskins was better defensively in LF than at 1B, whereas Santana is a plus fielding 1B.
Given that eventually they'll have a rookie SS and 2B, a better fielder at 1B is worth a worse fielder in LF.
Santana is a switchhitter with no weak side, so that makes it easier to balance the lineup, and harder to match RPs against them.

I don't think Klentak expects them to compete for a wildcard this year, so he doesn't have to rush into anything, if they surprise, he can make a move in July. But I think 2018 is a "find out what you got" kind of season for them. If the kids don't step up, no free agent will make a difference, if they do, you can take a veteran contract off a team out of the playoffs for depth down the stretch.