JojoTheWhale
CORN BOY
- May 22, 2008
- 33,790
- 105,382
Thank you for doing this because you've wonderfully illustrated how dangerous advanced stats can be to those who don't understand the underpinnings or don't care enough to dig into them.
By Silver's own words, the model does not handle players with a gap year well. They've made some adjustments this year, but they now only compare players with a gap year to other players with a gap year. Think of how that limits your data pool. If you were to pick one player whose CARMELO projections are the least reliable this year, it would be Simmons.
clearly you are new to philly sports. What is negative, embracing the lakers suckiness? I did not like the trade at all, and its magnified even worst now when you see how bad the lakers truly are. I wanted that pick. Hinkie worked hard to get it, and it was a masterful job and now its basically gone.
Do you honestly believe Hinkie wouldn't have moved up for the right player? I can tell you with absolute certainty this is not the case. Now if you're just saying you don't like Fultz, ok. I don't agree, but at least it makes sense.
But really, my favorite part of this is how you use CARMELO projections to show that Ball is a significantly better prospect than Simmons (and demonstrating your lack of context as stated above) while simultaneously saying the trade up for Fultz was a mistake. CARMELO absolutely loves Fultz too, but I don't see that mentioned. Curious.
*Edit* I just realized I could be reading you as saracastic when you weren't, but it would be about the first time I've seen you positive about anything. Did you mean the Simmons projections in a postive way? Because if you use the 2016-17 projections for Simmons when he didn't have the gap year, they're absurdly high. But then you get into the issue of them switching to BPM last year and switching back to a BPM/RPM hybrid this year, which makes comparisons between the seasons cumbersome.
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