OT: Philadelphia 76ers: Onseason

[JojoTheWhale]

i love your confidence.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/ben-simmons/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/lonzo-ball/

Thank you for doing this because you've wonderfully illustrated how dangerous advanced stats can be to those who don't understand the underpinnings or don't care enough to dig into them.

By Silver's own words, the model does not handle players with a gap year well. They've made some adjustments this year, but they now only compare players with a gap year to other players with a gap year. Think of how that limits your data pool. If you were to pick one player whose CARMELO projections are the least reliable this year, it would be Simmons.

clearly you are new to philly sports. What is negative, embracing the lakers suckiness? I did not like the trade at all, and its magnified even worst now when you see how bad the lakers truly are. I wanted that pick. Hinkie worked hard to get it, and it was a masterful job and now its basically gone.

Do you honestly believe Hinkie wouldn't have moved up for the right player? I can tell you with absolute certainty this is not the case. Now if you're just saying you don't like Fultz, ok. I don't agree, but at least it makes sense.

But really, my favorite part of this is how you use CARMELO projections to show that Ball is a significantly better prospect than Simmons (and demonstrating your lack of context as stated above) while simultaneously saying the trade up for Fultz was a mistake. CARMELO absolutely loves Fultz too, but I don't see that mentioned. Curious.

*Edit* I just realized I could be reading you as saracastic when you weren't, but it would be about the first time I've seen you positive about anything. Did you mean the Simmons projections in a postive way? Because if you use the 2016-17 projections for Simmons when he didn't have the gap year, they're absurdly high. But then you get into the issue of them switching to BPM last year and switching back to a BPM/RPM hybrid this year, which makes comparisons between the seasons cumbersome.

 

[Embiid]

Jtown i'll never block you youre too entertaining.
This is the same guy that told us with absolute certainty that 20 year old Couturier playing with scrubs would never be anything more than a 3c.
I respect you because you treat the forum like the oldheads in my neighborhood treat the corner bar in South Philly. You get a notion in your head that might be somewhat plausible and then you scream it out to the world on the off-chance that down the line you can turn around and say "I told you so!" Youre gimmick is hilarious and I love it.
One poster says this:

And you follow it up QUICKLY with this:


Yet you harp on Simmons TS%? You dont even have a leg to stand on my friend. What does Lonzo do better than Simmons? I'll wait. Oh wait, as a non-casual fan I'm sure you watched a ton of Simmons LSU games and saw that he didnt make the NCAA tournament and Lonzo did, and that's the difference. Simmons couldnt will his team to the vaunted Summer League title and so he cant possibly be on Lonzo's level.
This dude said casual Sixer fans think Simmons will be a star. I can assure you I am anything but a casual fan. I guess its easy to look at Curry and think every player has to shoot the lights out to be dominant, but youre simply wrong. Amalgamation of talent is the one thing that all the great teams have and the Sixers are building that.

When youre not a casual you look at things like wha past plus attributes a player brings and how quickly and effectively do they translate. Simmons, the MCW clone, played the 6th pro game of his life after a year on the shelf and blew past NBA defenders, dished assists, was dominant on the boards, and dominant defensively. Will he have worse shooting games this year. Yep but I'd be willing to bet he has better games as well. Do you think 26 year old Simmons will still be shooting 60% FTs? What do you think is more likely Lonzo becomes a quality scoring option or Simmons improves his range game? Be honest with me.

I wont clutter up this thread anymore but just like I said in the Couturier/Schenn thread great players come in 3 sizes. Elite at one thing, versatile in many, or both. Simmons is already elite as def rebounder, passer, penetrator. I think very soon he will be elite defensively and as a finisher as he gets acclimated to NBA size and physicality. Against his age group 2 of the last 3 years he was dominant as a finisher around the rim, with both hands. I've been saying Simmons needs to work on his shot on this forum back when people were still trying to throw up Ingram as a higher upside player. As if every single prospect who's entered the NBA hasnt heard the mandate to get shots up and improve their percentages against the best defenders in the world.

I'll see you game 40

Lol..for the record since I was quoted..my swap dig was half sarcasm. I never wanted Ball bc of his dad and all the hype and definitely don't want him over Simmons! As far as Fultz..do think giving the pick to the Celtics was unecessary and already gave my take on why. I do like Tatum and wonder if Fultz will totally live up to number 1 pick potential and turn out to be the BPA..but wayyy to soon to judge. Liked the flashes I saw in game 1.Also, given the way the Sixers are constituted Fultz made sense at the time....but as noted annoyed we gave the Celts that pick even with protections.

 

[Jtown]

Thank you for doing this because you've wonderfully illustrated how dangerous advanced stats can be to those who don't understand the underpinnings or don't care enough to dig into them.

By Silver's own words, the model does not handle players with a gap year well. They've made some adjustments this year, but they now only compare players with a gap year to other players with a gap year. Think of how that limits your data pool. If you were to pick one player whose CARMELO projections are the least reliable this year, it would be Simmons.



Do you honestly believe Hinkie wouldn't have moved up for the right player? I can tell you with absolute certainty this is not the case. Now if you're just saying you don't like Fultz, ok. I don't agree, but at least it makes sense.

But really, my favorite part of this is how you use CARMELO projections to show that Ball is a significantly better prospect than Simmons (and demonstrating your lack of context as stated above) while simultaneously saying the trade up for Fultz was a mistake. CARMELO absolutely loves Fultz too, but I don't see that mentioned. Curious.

*Edit* I just realized I could be reading you as saracastic when you weren't, but it would be about the first time I've seen you positive about anything. Did you mean the Simmons projections in a postive way? Because if you use the 2016-17 projections for Simmons when he didn't have the gap year, they're absurdly high. But then you get into the issue of them switching to BPM last year and switching back to a BPM/RPM hybrid this year, which makes comparisons between the seasons cumbersome.

thank you for protecting me from advanced stats. I did not realize the danger i was in. Your self righteousness saved me. thank you.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No problem at all. We all talk out of our ass sometimes.

 

[Jtown]

Thank you for doing this because you've wonderfully illustrated how dangerous advanced stats can be to those who don't understand the underpinnings or don't care enough to dig into them.

By Silver's own words, the model does not handle players with a gap year well. They've made some adjustments this year, but they now only compare players with a gap year to other players with a gap year. Think of how that limits your data pool. If you were to pick one player whose CARMELO projections are the least reliable this year, it would be Simmons.



Do you honestly believe Hinkie wouldn't have moved up for the right player? I can tell you with absolute certainty this is not the case. Now if you're just saying you don't like Fultz, ok. I don't agree, but at least it makes sense.

But really, my favorite part of this is how you use CARMELO projections to show that Ball is a significantly better prospect than Simmons (and demonstrating your lack of context as stated above) while simultaneously saying the trade up for Fultz was a mistake. CARMELO absolutely loves Fultz too, but I don't see that mentioned. Curious.

*Edit* I just realized I could be reading you as saracastic when you weren't, but it would be about the first time I've seen you positive about anything. Did you mean the Simmons projections in a postive way? Because if you use the 2016-17 projections for Simmons when he didn't have the gap year, they're absurdly high. But then you get into the issue of them switching to BPM last year and switching back to a BPM/RPM hybrid this year, which makes comparisons between the seasons cumbersome.

Those projections are not there to compare the two prospects. Its to quell this enthusiasm for Simmons impact on the game. Offensive efficeincy is clearly the number 1 most important aspect to bball these days. No singular aspect on defense is as imporant as shooting.

The interesting thing about nba players is that they usually have the greatest improvement in their shooting percentage after their rookie year. That first offseason is key in developing a jumpshot. Simmons has already had his first nba offseason. IN fact he had a whole year off to work on his shot. And what do we know now about his shot? nothing because he never shoots any jumpers. The cards are stacked against simmons being an efficient scorer. And lets take a look at some of the successful nba players who have had impact careers being inefficient at scoring.

Sorry i am failing to find any maybe you and your masterful use of advanced stats can find us examples.

 

[Jack Straw]

Still amazing.

 

[Jtown]

Still amazing.

that dunk and the dunk on walton are shown in every nba highlight film. he has so many iconic dunks.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Those projections are not there to compare the two prospects. Its to quell this enthusiasm for Simmons impact on the game. Offensive efficeincy is clearly the number 1 most important aspect to bball these days. No singular aspect on defense is as imporant as shooting.

The players that have the most effect on your offense and therefore your efficiency are the ones that put the most pressure on the defense, whether it be via shooting or playmaking. Just as it has become a buzzword to say a shooter like Redick has gravity, so could you say a gifted playmaker like Simmons does. There is a tangible and mathematically-supported link between passing and scoring efficiencies. To toss out the added value Simmons' playmaking gives to others' shooting is unwise at best.

Now where the shooting vs playmaking debate diverges is what happens when you stack them. Shooters scale far better in numbers than playmakers because, well, there's one basketball. This is why Fultz was worth so much to the Sixers. But that primary initiator is an absolutely vital offensive cog. All of the shooters in the world won't replace that.

If you'll allow me to go full-on deadhead for a moment, size has become an oddly underrated aspect of basketball. It's not just about bigs, but either way, Simmons is massive. When we attempt to quantify what happens on the court, we don't really have a way to measure the impact of size because, as it was was so wonderfully stated by an anonymous NBA coach through Zach Lowe, “Size's impact is often in the things on the court that don't happen.” I don't know if we'll ever have a way to measure that. We don't have many historical examples of a Ben Simmons succeeding (or busting) because we haven't had many players like him. They mostly don't exist.

 

[Jtown]

The players that have the most effect on your offense and therefore your efficiency are the ones that put the most pressure on the defense, whether it be via shooting or playmaking. Just as it has become a buzzword to say a shooter like Redick has gravity, so could you say a gifted playmaker like Simmons does. There is a tangible and mathematically-supported link between passing and scoring efficiencies. To toss out the added value Simmons' playmaking gives to others' shooting is unwise at best.

Now where the shooting vs playmaking debate diverges is what happens when you stack them. Shooters scale far better in numbers than playmakers because, well, there's one basketball. This is why Fultz was worth so much to the Sixers. But that primary initiator is an absolutely vital offensive cog. All of the shooters in the world won't replace that.

If you'll allow me to go full-on deadhead for a moment, size has become an oddly underrated aspect of basketball. It's not just about bigs, but either way, Simmons is massive. When we attempt to quantify what happens on the court, we don't really have a way to measure the impact of size because, as it was was so wonderfully stated by an anonymous NBA coach through Zach Lowe, “Size's impact is often in the things on the court that don't happen.” I don't know if we'll ever have a way to measure that. We don't have many historical examples of a Ben Simmons succeeding (or busting) because we haven't had many players like him. They mostly don't exist.

Lets talk about ben simmons playmaking. How does one defend ben simmons? how would you do it? Seems pretty easy to me. Ok lets talk about in the final two minutes, How do you defend ben simmons? Oh you foul him. What a great idea. Ben simmons inability to score in a variety of ways limits his playmaking ability. And it will be further limited in crunch time. Down by 3, he won't even be in the game.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Has anyone seen Fultz even take jumpers in practice or warmups? In the clips, all I see are layups.

 

[Embiid]

Has anyone seen Fultz even take jumpers in practice or warmups? In the clips, all I see are layups.

There is some annoying mystery going on with Fultz and his injuries. His free throw form however is the most baffling..

 

[Jtown]

Has anyone seen Fultz even take jumpers in practice or warmups? In the clips, all I see are layups.

after summer league he decided to revamp his shot ala curry. since then he has refused to shoot jumpers. its not going well

 

[Embiid]

So pumped for this game....

Embiid is going to pick up the mantle from Andrew Tony and become the Boston strangler!

 

[Cody Webster]

Home opener time.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Ruined my shorts watching all that.

 

[Jtown]

Please keep embiid healthy god. Please

 

[Embiid]

Joel "I mean..Trust the Process" Embiid! Let's go Sixers! Beat Boston!

 

[Cody Webster]

Please keep embiid healthy god. Please

Hopefully he doesn't try to do too much tonight

 

[Embiid]

Hopefully he doesn't try to do too much tonight

Too many outside shot attempts

 

[Embiid]

Cmon with these turnovers..

 

[Cody Webster]

Too many outside shot attempts

It's a catch 22. More outside shots, the lower the chances of him hurting himself haha. He definitely needs to get in the paint though.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Brett, start coaching please. Tired of watching Dario run Iso the entire game.

 

[Jack Straw]

At least I don’t have to listen to Heinsohn tonight

 

[Jack Straw]

Emiid just needs to start backing these guys down on the block. Instead of all the fancy stuff.

 

[Cody Webster]

What a way to end a pretty poor first quarter