Peak/Prime Lemieux vs. Gretzky - Adjusted

CarpeNoctem

Chilling w The Chief
Oct 29, 2013
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In The Night
Greztky is in front of Mario because if we're talking about in terms of progress since they played, more big guys have soft hands or impressive agility than they ever did before. BUT nobody else has mentally blown away the competition like Gretzky has, or even gotten halfway to that point.

Arguably the closest was Lidstrom but he was a d-man and his domination at the position was nowhere near Gretzky levels.
 

shazariahl

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Apr 7, 2009
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Really? I'll take the guy who had 4 of the top 5 playoff point totals ever - including the top one. I'll take the guy who was on pace to score 60 playoff points over a 23 game playoff run in 1984-85 (the same number of games Mario scored his 44 playoff points in 1991). I'll also take the guy who has all the important playoff records - season and career - and the guy with 6 Stanley Cup finals appearances, including 4 Cups, 4 Canada Cups, and 10 Stanley Cup playoff and Canada Cup scoring titles. Oh, also the guy who destroys the other guy in playoff PPG average. So in conclusion, I take the guy who is easily the most clutch forward of all time and, who is also - by a long shot - the best post season performer of all time, as well as international performer of all time.

Great post. Every scenario for Mario requires that we give him full credit for time missed, or hand pick his best partial seasons from out of his career. For Gretzky, we just take what he actually did. And in most cases, even with the deck stacked against Gretzky, he still wins.

Dude relax lol.
gretzky was a volume shooter too back then, against weak goalies weak defense ...
Im just saying with the Nhl today and the Gretzky scoring tool , he wont be scoring 40+ goal now. As inacurate u say ovechkin is, I think he has better skillset to score goal in today NHL.

I do think Gretzky would score a lot less, but I'm curious why you think he wouldn't even get 40? Obviously better goalies and Dsystems would impact him, but would he really suffer a 60% reduction in goals when league scoring levels have gone down only half that much? There would have to be some compelling reason why Gretzky and Gretzky alone would be affected twice as much as any other player by changes in goaltending technique.

You could say it's because he scored so many shots along the ice, but Gretzky also picked the top corners constantly. He had one of the most accurate shots I've ever seen. Guys like Stamkos still score tons of goals with slappers from the slot. There's no reason to believe Gretzky couldn't do the same. After all, we aren't just talking about some guy who compiled a lot of goals in the high-scoring 80's, we're talking about a guy who still had 2 seasons where he scored more goals than Lemieux ever did. He also has the most 70, 60, and 40 goal seasons of all time, and is tied with Bossy for the most 50 goal seasons of all time as well. Gretzky had crazy longevity as an elite goal scorer, something the "he never broke 40 goals in his 30's" crowd seems to forget. No one broke 40 goals more often than Gretzky did; and yet their complaint is that he didn't do it even more?

Gretzky was great player no doubt, he would still be the best player nowadays, but not the best goal scorer.

Definitely not the best every season. But I don't think expecting the guy with 92 and 87 goal seasons to win at least 1 Richard is unreasonable. And, as you said, he'd still be the best player and playmaker in the league.
 

The Panther

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Nice post by Shazarial (above). I'll just add two things:

1) Gretzky was never the goal-scorer with L.A. that he had been with Edmonton, but the notion that he couldn't score goals into his thirties is not really right. It's probably more correct to say that he stopped going to the front of the net and driving the net as much from his late 20/early 30s. In part, this was the natural inclination of players to protect their longevity more as their 20s pass (this pretty much applies to everyone).

Note that I'm not defending Gretzky by saying that he chose to score less -- I think he would have liked to score more goals -- but rather I think he chose to go to the net much less. He played more on the perimeter.

Nevertheless, he managed to score 41 goals at age 30, which gave him 12-straight 40-goal seasons. He scored 15 goals in the '93 playoffs (NHL-best), and then 38 in 1994 (putting him around 25th-best or so in the NHL). By now, we're 16 seasons into his career! He also scored 10 goals in 15 playoff games in 1997, age 36. No player's best years (except maybe Howe) lasts beyond 15 seasons, so at that point the rest of his career is gravy.

2) The argument has been put forward that Lemieux would have won every scoring title until he was 40 (in 2005/2006) if he'd been healthy. My question is, what's the evidence?

The evidence is usually his 2000/2001 campaign, when he did amazingly well with 76 points in 43 games. But here's the thing -- is 43 games enough evidence to make an assumption based on 1997 through 2006, a nine-year period?

Detracting that amazing 1/2-season, Lemieux from 2001 to 2005 (aged 35/36 to around his 40th birthday) scored 153 points in 127 games. It's a great total for an aging veteran, but per season it works out to about 98 points. Then, since he had a steep decline during the 2002-03 season (huge numbers first couple of months, then enormous drop-off) and was less than a PPG his brief appearances in '03-'04 and '05, I don't think there is enough evidence to conclude that he would have been able to win scoring titles at those advanced ages.

Aged 37, Lemieux's PPG was 2nd in the NHL (though I think he would have dropped lower on that list had he played the full season; he was declining as the year went on). By the next year, he was basically finished.

So, in fact, both Gretzky and Lemieux were basically done after age 37.
 

Horvath Broncos

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Aug 21, 2013
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These Mario vs. Gretzky discussion are allways the same. The amount of cherrypicking, adjusting and ifs and buts required to rank Mario better or equal to Wayne always make these discussions rather silly.

and it's always only Mario who is benefitting in these "what if..." scenarios. What if Gretzky never got wrecked by Suter, what if Gretzky never was sold to Edmonton... and so on. but you really don't need to bend the truth when it comes to Gretzky. he did what he did and no amount of stat adjusting is gonna change that.

bottom line (cause Stone Cold said so)
92 goal season> could have been 100 goal season.
 

tazzy19

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Mar 27, 2008
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Great post. Every scenario for Mario requires that we give him full credit for time missed, or hand pick his best partial seasons from out of his career. For Gretzky, we just take what he actually did. And in most cases, even with the deck stacked against Gretzky, he still wins.



I do think Gretzky would score a lot less, but I'm curious why you think he wouldn't even get 40? Obviously better goalies and Dsystems would impact him, but would he really suffer a 60% reduction in goals when league scoring levels have gone down only half that much? There would have to be some compelling reason why Gretzky and Gretzky alone would be affected twice as much as any other player by changes in goaltending technique.

You could say it's because he scored so many shots along the ice, but Gretzky also picked the top corners constantly. He had one of the most accurate shots I've ever seen. Guys like Stamkos still score tons of goals with slappers from the slot. There's no reason to believe Gretzky couldn't do the same. After all, we aren't just talking about some guy who compiled a lot of goals in the high-scoring 80's, we're talking about a guy who still had 2 seasons where he scored more goals than Lemieux ever did. He also has the most 70, 60, and 40 goal seasons of all time, and is tied with Bossy for the most 50 goal seasons of all time as well. Gretzky had crazy longevity as an elite goal scorer, something the "he never broke 40 goals in his 30's" crowd seems to forget. No one broke 40 goals more often than Gretzky did; and yet their complaint is that he didn't do it even more?



Definitely not the best every season. But I don't think expecting the guy with 92 and 87 goal seasons to win at least 1 Richard is unreasonable. And, as you said, he'd still be the best player and playmaker in the league.
Great post as usual, Shazariahl. One thing that also gets overlooked is Gretzky's choice to focus more on playmaking as he got older - and even as far back as 1985-86 when he actually decided he wanted to score 2 assists a game. The result was a record 215 points and, if I remember correctly, a record season for the Oilers. We see this choice extending into the next year during the 1987 Canada Cup when he decided he would tell Lemieux he wanted Mario taking the shots instead of giving it back to him. We would see a slightly different Gretzky from this point on. There were many times during that Canada Cup where Gretzky seemed to have a far better opportunity to shoot and score himself, only to seemingly go out of his way to set up Lemieux or some other player. He had shifted his focus from goal scoring to pure playmaking. From this point on, his goals were basically the result of his exceptional playmaking. In Los Angeles, he started playing more a perimeter game, and his assists became what really defined him. 122 assists in 1991 without a hall of fame team is still more assists than anyone else has ever scored, and remains Gretzky's 4th highest assist season of all time. And of course, once he suffered the Gary Suter hit and subsequent herniated disc, he had to rely even more on his playmaking than ever before. However, this is certainly not where his goal scoring began to decline. As we have seen, it all began with a choice, which is just amazing to me. Here's a guy who decides he wants to destroy the goal record just because he can. Then he decides he wants to destroy his own assist record just because he can. Gretzky could do whatever Gretzky wanted to do in any era as it would seem.
 

blogofmike

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Dec 16, 2010
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As time went on, Gretzky became more of a setup man, especially on the PP. Yes his last 40 goal season was in 1991, but only 8 of the 41 came on the PP (where he had 51 assists). Lemieux was much more balanced in his PPG/PPA splits.

Even then the 33 ES goals is impressive by itself. It's on par with what prime Mario Lemieux was getting in his median (not 89 or 93) years by raw ESG number and by league ranking.
 

Thenameless

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Apr 29, 2014
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Game 7, series on the line, prime vs prime... I'm taking Lemieux

Lemieux's playoff records...

Goals in a single period (4, shares record)
Goals in a single game (5, shares record)
Points in a single period (4, shares record)
Points in a single game (8, shares record)
Best goals per game in the playoffs at .710 (Bossy is second with .659)

I am more of a Lemieux fan than a Gretzky fan. Having said that, I suspect most of the knowledgeable people here would acknowledge Lemieux as the more dangerous goal scorer peak-to-peak when he is motivated. However, Gretzky's team would have the advantage of the better playmaker between the two, thus also giving his team some kind of an insurmountable edge. More players on Gretzky's team would become greater threats. This is an oversimplification as Lemieux was also an all-time playmaker and Gretzky and all-time scorer.
 

Hawkey Town 18

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Jun 29, 2009
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It's not a false argument - it's a fact....

Lemieux boosted Rob Brown (of all players) to something like 125 points - Meanwhile Gretzky boosted an already great player in Bernie Nicholls to a whopping 150 points..

How did Blair MacDonald and Gretzky's 19 year old 1st season in the NHL not get brought up back when this was being discussed? In not only a brand new league, but a stronger league than the one he was playing in Gretzky co-leads the league in scoring and elevates MacDonald to a 94 pt season (if you've never heard of him, there's a reason why). Here are the top 5 scorers for the Oilers that season...

Gretzky: 137pts
MacDonald: 94pts
Weir: 66pts
Callighen: 58pts
Lumley: 58pts

Yep, that team looks stacked.
 

Uncle Rotter

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May 11, 2010
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I dont think your thinking "is the case". Back in 1984 training overall was not where it is today and Lemieux was a victim from it. You think his back problems came from nowhere, or even from him just being a slob?

Even back in 1984 most players knew it wasn't a good idea to smoke.
 

Uncle Rotter

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It might be more straightforward to say that Lemieux got a lot more PP time than Gretzky did, so per-game figures are going to be skewed by this. If you consider such things, Gretzky comes out significantly ahead.

Yep. If Edmonton had a season with the PP opportunities Pittsburgh had in 1988-89, Gretzky would have had a 3.0 PPG year.
 

The Panther

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One Gretzky stat (among many) that always turns my head is that, in 1984-85, he scored 73 goals -- and only 8 on the power-play. I mean, how is that even possible...?

In '82, he scored 74 at ES or shorthanded. (68 at ES, which is the all-time record)
In '84, he scored 67 at ES or shorthanded.
In '85, he scored 65 at ES or shorthanded.

I mean, WTF?

Can anyone even approach that? Mario, in '89, had a huge proportion of goals (31) on the PP, meaning he had 54 at ES or shorthanded. Mario's ES goals are a bit more impressive maybe in '93 -- that's the year he had 69 in 60 games, and 53 of them were ES or shorthanded. (Based on an 80-game season, that pro-rates to about 71, so he might have been close.) However, Mario really feasted off the PP in his last enormous year, '96, when he had more goals on the PP (31) than at ES!

Brett Hull? In his world-beating year of '91, he had 57 at ES (none shorthanded). Jari Kurri did the same (playing with Gretzky) in '85. So, I guess that's the most ES and Shorties by anyone NOT named Gretzky.

Hull -- 57 in '91. Kurri -- 57 in '85. Lemieux -- 54 in '89. Yzerman? 48 in '89. Esposito? 54 in '74. Nicholls? 49 in '89. Bossy? 47 in '82. Shutt? 52 in '77. Selanne? 52 in '93. Leach? 51 in '76. Mogilny? 49 in '93. McDonald? 49 in '83. Stamkos? 48 in '12. Bure? 47 in 2000. (That Stamkos season two years ago is pretty amazing, when you look at how many goals he got at ES. Ovechkin's best is 43 in '08.)

So, when you combine ES and Shorthanded goals, Gretzky wins like this (according to my brief check... if anyone can correct this please do!):
1) Gretzky 74*
2) Gretzky 67
3) Gretzky 65
4) Kurri 57
4) Hull 57
6) Esposito 54
6) Lemieux 54
8) Gretzky 53

(*So what that means is, he basically scored a goal a game for an entire season... if they'd never put him on the PP at all for the entire season! Think about that...)

Peak-Gretzky's lack of PP goals makes you wonder... because he obviously got a lot of power-play time. In 1985, for example, he had 35 PP assists, but only 8 goals (despite leading the NHL in goals), which is quite disproportionate to his overall totals. It would appear that, on the PP, he was -- and I hate to toot Gretzky's horn yet further -- not really trying to score himself. With the man advantage and extra space on the ice, he was able to use his teammates even more than usual, to set them up.

Consider 1981 (he got 55 goals on 261 shots) and 1982 (he got 92 goals on 369 shots). You would logically assume that, having increased his goal production by 60% by taking 108 more shots on net, his power-play goal production would be way up. But no. In 1981, he had 15 on the PP and in 1982 he had 18.


However, a much larger percentage of Gretzky's goals are scored on the PP starting in 1992 (though not in his shorter '93 season), and again in '94 onward. This seems to apply to his assists, too.

For example, in the record-destroying assist season of 1985-86, when he had a staggering 163 assists, 42 of them were on the PP. Years later in L.A., in 1991, he finished with 122 assists (41 fewer), but a career-high 51 were on the PP.

Stats like this boggle the mind.
 

tazzy19

Registered User
Mar 27, 2008
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One Gretzky stat (among many) that always turns my head is that, in 1984-85, he scored 73 goals -- and only 8 on the power-play. I mean, how is that even possible...?

In '82, he scored 74 at ES or shorthanded. (68 at ES, which is the all-time record)
In '84, he scored 67 at ES or shorthanded.
In '85, he scored 65 at ES or shorthanded.

I mean, WTF?

Can anyone even approach that? Mario, in '89, had a huge proportion of goals (31) on the PP, meaning he had 54 at ES or shorthanded. Mario's ES goals are a bit more impressive maybe in '93 -- that's the year he had 69 in 60 games, and 53 of them were ES or shorthanded. (Based on an 80-game season, that pro-rates to about 71, so he might have been close.) However, Mario really feasted off the PP in his last enormous year, '96, when he had more goals on the PP (31) than at ES!

Brett Hull? In his world-beating year of '91, he had 57 at ES (none shorthanded). Jari Kurri did the same (playing with Gretzky) in '85. So, I guess that's the most ES and Shorties by anyone NOT named Gretzky.

Hull -- 57 in '91. Kurri -- 57 in '85. Lemieux -- 54 in '89. Yzerman? 48 in '89. Esposito? 54 in '74. Nicholls? 49 in '89. Bossy? 47 in '82. Shutt? 52 in '77. Selanne? 52 in '93. Leach? 51 in '76. Mogilny? 49 in '93. McDonald? 49 in '83. Stamkos? 48 in '12. Bure? 47 in 2000. (That Stamkos season two years ago is pretty amazing, when you look at how many goals he got at ES. Ovechkin's best is 43 in '08.)

So, when you combine ES and Shorthanded goals, Gretzky wins like this (according to my brief check... if anyone can correct this please do!):
1) Gretzky 74*
2) Gretzky 67
3) Gretzky 65
4) Kurri 57
4) Hull 57
6) Esposito 54
6) Lemieux 54
8) Gretzky 53

(*So what that means is, he basically scored a goal a game for an entire season... if they'd never put him on the PP at all for the entire season! Think about that...)

Peak-Gretzky's lack of PP goals makes you wonder... because he obviously got a lot of power-play time. In 1985, for example, he had 35 PP assists, but only 8 goals (despite leading the NHL in goals), which is quite disproportionate to his overall totals. It would appear that, on the PP, he was -- and I hate to toot Gretzky's horn yet further -- not really trying to score himself. With the man advantage and extra space on the ice, he was able to use his teammates even more than usual, to set them up.

Consider 1981 (he got 55 goals on 261 shots) and 1982 (he got 92 goals on 369 shots). You would logically assume that, having increased his goal production by 60% by taking 108 more shots on net, his power-play goal production would be way up. But no. In 1981, he had 15 on the PP and in 1982 he had 18.


However, a much larger percentage of Gretzky's goals are scored on the PP starting in 1992 (though not in his shorter '93 season), and again in '94 onward. This seems to apply to his assists, too.

For example, in the record-destroying assist season of 1985-86, when he had a staggering 163 assists, 42 of them were on the PP. Years later in L.A., in 1991, he finished with 122 assists (41 fewer), but a career-high 51 were on the PP.

Stats like this boggle the mind
.

I would guess it has to do with him losing some of his speed as he got older (also due to injuries after 1991), and therefore he had to rely a lot more on power plays to get his points.
 

tazzy19

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Mar 27, 2008
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This is probably the best post I've ever seen that sums up why no one (including Lemieux) comes close to Gretzky:

Originally Posted by Trafalgar Law View Post
The correct answer is Gretzky folks. In fact you could make a legitimate argument that the 5 most dominant seasons in NHL history all belong to Gretzky. They are unquestionably the 5 most dominant seasons offensively in league history as well. Sorry Lemieux, nothing you've done, including 199 points and 160 in 60 can match Gretzky's feats in any of these 5 years. In order:

1983-1984: Highest PPG in league history at 2.77. Highest GPG in league history at 1.18. Only player in league history to lead the league in even strength goals, power play goals, AND short handed goals (seriously what the actual ****, this guy was primarily a playmaker). Led the league in points by a 79 point margin, most in league history. Won the scoring title by a 63% margin. Would've led the league in points off even strength points alone. Led the league in playoff scoring. Led the league in ppg by a full point. No you did not read that wrong, the difference between Gretzky and the #2 scorer (Coffey, who's points totals were actually helped by Gretzky's dominance) was a ppg player. This is IMO unquestionably the most dominant offensive season in NHL history, only Orr's 1970-1971 season can even be brought into the conversation in terms of single season excellence.

1984-1985: Best playoff performance in NHL history bar none: 17 goals, 30 assists, 47 points, +28, 2.61 ppg. The last 3 all being league records. Gretzky could've skipped the regular season and this would still rank as one of the all time great single seasons. But instead of doing that, he plays the regular season and finishes as the league leader in goals (both even strength and short handed), assists, points, shots, +/-. Would've led the league in scoring off assists alone. Would've led the league in scoring off even strength points alone. Just google any regular season stat you want besides things like penalty minutes and chances are the name "Gretzky, Wayne" pops up at the top of the list. Nobody remembers him this year for his regular season, let that sink in.

1981-1982: I'm going to ignore every stat this year except goals this year, no need to get into the other gaudy stats. 50 in 39. Most goals in NHL history with 92. Most even strength goals in NHL history with 68. Highest even strength GPG in league history at 0.85 (yes you read that right). Would've led the league in goals off even strength goals alone. Led the league in short handed goals. Led the league in game winning goals. On ice for 265 goals for. 265, there were multiple teams that season who couldn't get that many goals period, Gretzky was literally worth more than entire teams offensively. This is a playmaker folks.

1985-1986: Most points in NHL history with 215. Most assists in NHL history with 163. Highest APG in league history at 2.04. Would've led the league in scoring off assists alone. Would've led the league in scoring off even strength points alone. You know what the scary part is? The NHL introduced the "Gretzky rule" for this season, a rule that literally served no purpose but to decrease Gretzky's production. His production was actually supposed to be HIGHER.

1986-1987: Gretzky actually "struggled" this season due to the Gretzky rule. Leading the league with "only" 62 goals, a "mere" 121 assists, and a "measly" 183 points. Thankfully, scoring had decreased league wide thanks to the Gretzky rule, and in terms of pure dominance, Gretzky won the scoring title by 70%. Yeah, that's all that needs to be said.

Yeah, the only single season that holds up to these feats is Orr's unbelievable 1970-1971 season.
 

Capitaine Subban*

Guest
Since when PP point dont count or matter ???
Dominating player creates more pp and make the other teams pay for it.
Lemieux was great in 80s, 90s and would be the best player in the nhl anytime except during the early 80s (if u put him prime version of himself).
 

Capitaine Subban*

Guest
And btw

For those who thinks gretzky would score 70+ goals nowadays with his slapper lol (Im kidding,he had more than just a slapper).Do u also think Wilt Chamberlain would average one 45-50 point a season in todays nba ?Because he would somehow adjust to the new nba and somehow make, the todays, other big man becoming the retro garbage non-athletic ones.
 

Tam O Shanter

Guest
For those who thinks gretzky would score 70+ goals nowadays with his slapper lol (Im kidding,he had more than just a slapper).Do u also think Wilt Chamberlain would average one 45-50 point a season in todays nba ?Because he would somehow adjust to the new nba and somehow make, the todays, other big man becoming the retro garbage non-athletic ones.

I'm with you, but you're wasting your breath here.
 

tazzy19

Registered User
Mar 27, 2008
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116
I don't think there's a single poster on this forum who thinks Gretzky will "score 70+ with his slapper."
Exactly. The unfortunate thing is, everyone who thinks Gretzky would be scoring at Crosby like levels (or like some have said, "maybe 100 points"), obviously never saw Gretzky do his thing in his prime. The part that baffles me is they don't realize he scored around 100 points in a lower scoring era than today at ages 36-37.
 

Capitaine Subban*

Guest
Exactly. The unfortunate thing is, everyone who thinks Gretzky would be scoring at Crosby like levels (or like some have said, "maybe 100 points"), obviously never saw Gretzky do his thing in his prime. The part that baffles me is they don't realize he scored around 100 points in a lower scoring era than today at ages 36-37.

Gretzky would be the best player still but wouldnt be a top scorer.The game has changed and the gretzky skillset wouldnt make him a scorer of 41+ goal on his best year.
 

BraveCanadian

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Jun 30, 2010
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I'd hazard a guess and say that 80% of the league in 99's era had harder shots than him. He just shot them where they ain't with pin point accuracy.

Not only that.. Gretzky had the best panic threshold ever. He would hold the puck and hold the puck until the goalie beat themselves and THEN Gretzky would put it where they ain't.
 

Uncle Rotter

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May 11, 2010
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Kelowna, B.C.
Then why was Edmonton last in the NHL for power plays in 1985-86?
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_1986.html
There was a league wide change in the style of officiating in the late 1980s.

Here's a few examples of how it happened back then:
Edmonton 13 Vancouver 0 (Edmonton gets its only PP at 9:33 of the 1st, Vancouver gets all the rest (6) of the PPs)
http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poboxscore.cgi?H19850138

Edmonton 12 Chicago 9 (the Oilers' only PP cames at 16:53 of the 1st while leading 4-0)
http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poboxscore.cgi?H19850291

Edmonton 12 Detroit 3 (Edmonton gets 2 PP; 9:39 of the 1st with the game tied, 6:34 of the 3rd)
http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poboxscore.cgi?H19850724
 

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