Patrick Wiercioch

[Lenny the Lynx]

To be fair, the two players have seen drastically different deployment.

SEASON NAME | GP | TOI/60 | Corsi Rel QoC | Corsi QoC | +- QoC | Off Zone Start %
2012-2013 Season DAVIDRUNDBLAD | 8 | 9.62 | -1.11 | -6.538 | -0.083 | 74.3
2014-2015 Season DAVIDRUNDBLAD | 49 | 11.98 | -1.071 | -1.872 | -0.132 | 68.8
2013-2014 Season DAVIDRUNDBLAD | 17 | 12.25 | -0.422 | -0.869 | -0.126 | 56.6
2012-2013 Season JAREDCOWEN | 7 | 16.31 | 0.052 | -2.837 | 0.011 | 62.2
2013-2014 Season JAREDCOWEN | 68 | 16.64 | 0.462 | -0.081 | 0.002 | 49.9
2014-2015 Season JAREDCOWEN | 54 | 15.21 | 0.487 | 0.071 | -0.011 | 45.8

That's the kind of deployment that would make Wiercioch blush. While I won't say that this in any way proves one to be better than the other, I will say that kind of disparity makes it extremely difficult to get a read via eye test or stats.

I mean, you suggest that Rundblad would be our 2nd worst dman next to Phillips if he were here, but maybe if Cowen had those charmin kitten soft minutes, he'd pass your eye test, and improve his fancy stat numbers.

I'm not really a fan of either right now, we've got a crowded blue line as it is, but if I had to bet on which guy will have a longer career, I'd begrudgingly lean towards Cowen. It's a shame how his career has gone, because I was a big fan when we drafted him. Here's hoping he turns things around.

This post wasn't specifically about Patrick Wiercioch but you get ten points for at least mentioning him in your post. First time in pages of posts.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

No...not for a whole year that includes a training camp and preseason. I really think he gets more breaks then any other player and has been treated very fairly by the fanbase the last 2 years. Even now he has more supporters then doubters or at least thats how it seems

If Cowen didnt have the hype of the draft pedigree he wouldnt get the breaks he does

He never had the opportunity to train properly during camp due to his injury. He got pushed back into the lineup playing top 4 duties while still trying to get his feet back and recover. He got scratched after playing some good hockey for no apparent reason. That in itself is a recipe for disaster. Not to mention throughout the majority of the season people were putting him under a microscope and every mistake he made was extrapolated and multiplied.

With regards to your argument about his pedigree, it actually works to his disadvantage and that comes without context.

 

[Sensinitis]

Wier is a stud I believe in him

 

[Proust*]

Are the Sens so good that they cannot fit a World Champion into their top 4?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Are the Sens so good that they cannot fit a World Champion into their top 4?

That's oversimplifying it. Wier has had his fair share of struggles and the doubt is deserved imo even with the decent finsh to the year.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

No kidding. Cowens strength is supposed to be his defensive game and yet that's the part that's the real problem. There's been a couple games the past 2 years where he looked absolutely lost on the ice.

Well if looking completely lost for a couple of games over two years is a valuable metric, then I humbly suggest there may not be a good D-man in the NHL, but definitely not on the Sens blueline!

While Cowen has struggled with the speed of the game at times, he definitely isn't as bad as many are making him out to be.

Of course with PW being the new golden boy and Phillips in the pressbox, the hockey intelligentsia on this board have decided Cowen is now the target for everything that is wrong in the world.

 

[Micklebot]

Well if looking completely lost for a couple of games over two years is a valuable metric, then I humbly suggest there may not be a good D-man in the NHL, but definitely not on the Sens blueline!

While Cowen has struggled with the speed of the game at times, he definitely isn't as bad as many are making him out to be.

Of course with PW being the new golden boy and Phillips in the pressbox, the hockey intelligentsia on this board have decided Cowen is now the target for everything that is wrong in the world.

Cowen hasn't really inspired confidence for about 2 and a half years though. There is really nothing new to him being criticized. Is he as bad as some claim? No, but the end results have still been terrible. He's riding potential, hopefully he can realize some of it, and stay healthy. Imo, that's what has been his undoing,

 

[Holdurbreathe]

This post wasn't specifically about Patrick Wiercioch but you get ten points for at least mentioning him in your post. First time in pages of posts.

Here's the comparison of Cowen and Weicoich using the Corsi stats set in previous post using these categories.

SEASON NAME | GP | TOI/60 | Corsi Rel QoC | Corsi QoC | Off Zone Start %
2012-2013 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 42 | 12.76 | -6.49 | -8.858 | 62.7
2014-2015 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 53 | 12.78 | -0.404 | -1.029 | 54.9
2013-2014 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 56 | 14.54 | -0.124 | -0.797 | 55.7
2012-2013 Season JAREDCOWEN | 7 | 16.31 | 0.052 | -2.837 | 62.2
2013-2014 Season JAREDCOWEN | 68 | 16.64 | 0.462 | -0.081 | 49.9
2014-2015 Season JAREDCOWEN | 54 | 15.21 | 0.487 | 0.071 | 45.8

 

[Micklebot]

Here's the comparison of Cowen and Weicoich using the Corsi stats set in previous post using these categories.

SEASON NAME | GP | TOI/60 | Corsi Rel QoC | Corsi QoC | Off Zone Start %
2012-2013 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 42 | 12.76 | -6.49 | -8.858 | 62.7
2014-2015 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 53 | 12.78 | -0.404 | -1.029 | 54.9
2013-2014 Season PATRICKWEIRCOICH | 56 | 14.54 | -0.124 | -0.797 | 55.7
2012-2013 Season JAREDCOWEN | 7 | 16.31 | 0.052 | -2.837 | 62.2
2013-2014 Season JAREDCOWEN | 68 | 16.64 | 0.462 | -0.081 | 49.9
2014-2015 Season JAREDCOWEN | 54 | 15.21 | 0.487 | 0.071 | 45.8

Yeah, really not fair to compare their perfomance without that context. The only thing you can really say is statistically, Cowen struggled in his deployment, while Wiercioch did not. Using the eye test, they both struggled early on this season, and Wiercioch looked better near the end and into the playoffs (I still think he's best served as a bottom pair guy). Cowen on the other hand finished the season injured, so it's hard to evaluate. The whole team looked better under Cameron, but Cowen didn't benefit from the hot streak with Hammond (only played about 5-8 games if I recall)

In fact, Once Methot returned and the D was all sloted correctly, Cowen only played about 340 ES mins, a good chunk of which was with Lehner struggling in net. I think a healthy Cowen with solid goaltending likely escapes with far less criticism.

I'm still more confident right now with Wiercioch on our second pair, and prefer Boro on the third, leaving Cowen as the odd man out. Long term, I don't see him reaching his potential, but that is certainly a risky prediction.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Cowen hasn't really inspired confidence for about 2 and a half years though. There is really nothing new to him being criticized. Is he as bad as some claim? No, but the end results have still been terrible. He's riding potential, hopefully he can realize some of it, and stay healthy. Imo, that's what has been his undoing,

The end result has not been terrible, it is the unrealistic expectations people have for young, first round draftees, that are defensive defensemen that is problematic IMO.

The Corsi statistics QoC, rel QoC show Cowen in the top 2 amongst the current D and doing so while being ranked 5th with QoT.

QoC - quality of competition
QoT = quality of teammates

All I can say if Cowen is terrible there are a few other Sens D that are statistically even worse.

IMO I would have loved to see Cowen further along in his development but injuries happen and setbacks occur. However I have seen glimpses of what Cowen can do and hope BM continues to show patience with him.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Yeah, really not fair to compare their perfomance without that context. The only thing you can really say is statistically, Cowen struggled in his deployment, while Wiercioch did not. Using the eye test, they both struggled early on this season, and Wiercioch looked better near the end and into the playoffs (I still think he's best served as a bottom pair guy). Cowen on the other hand finished the season injured, so it's hard to evaluate. The whole team looked better under Cameron, but Cowen didn't benefit from the hot streak with Hammond (only played about 5-8 games if I recall)

In fact, Once Methot returned and the D was all sloted correctly, Cowen only played about 340 ES mins, a good chunk of which was with Lehner struggling in net. I think a healthy Cowen with solid goaltending likely escapes with far less criticism.

I'm still more confident right now with Wiercioch on our second pair, and prefer Boro on the third, leaving Cowen as the odd man out. Long term, I don't see him reaching his potential, but that is certainly a risky prediction.

Well I would rather Cowen on the second pairing over PW simply because Ceci needs a physical defensive minded player with him so he can develop into the offensive D he always has been and can be at the NHL level.

I respect your opinions, just not on Cowen and Weircoich, nor would I rank Boro ahead of Cowen!!!!

 

[Tee Lo]

Advanced Stats tell us Patrick Wiercioch played really, really well against weaker opposition.

They also tell us Cowen played terribly against tougher opposition.

Despite this, Cowen's attitude does not warrant him more "patience" from management. When he was asked about returning to the lineup during the playoffs, he really didn't seem to care. I don't know how good Cowen would've been if he had never been injured, but when he has been playing, he has not been good. Cowen is modeled around being a Defensive Defenseman, when in fact he's a huge defensive liability.

Trade Cowen, I don't see him turning things around... with this team at least.

Patrick Wiercioch should be given the opportunity to play Top 4 with Ceci this season, to see if he actually can play Top 4 consistently or not.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Advanced Stats tell us Patrick Wiercioch played really, really well against weaker opposition.

They also tell us Cowen played terribly against tougher opposition.

Despite this, Cowen's attitude does not warrant him more "patience" from management. When he was asked about returning to the lineup during the playoffs, he really didn't seem to care. I don't know how good Cowen would've been if he had never been injured, but when he has been playing, he has not been good. Cowen is modeled around being a Defensive Defenseman, when in fact he's a huge defensive liability.

Trade Cowen, I don't see him turning things around... with this team at least.

Patrick Wiercioch should be given the opportunity to play Top 4 with Ceci this season, to see if he actually can play Top 4 consistently or not.

Last thing I have to say on this topic, Cowen played against the tougher opponents with weaker teammates and given how Corsi works didn't have a chance under those circumstances unless he took 30 shots a game at the opposition net.

I have also said Cowen has struggled to handled the speed of the NHL game, but hasn't been close to deserving many of the negative comments.

Not sure how you came to the conclusion Cowen has a bad attitude based on that question and his response.

Fact is Cowen had a sports hernia and wasn't going to play unless there were significant extenuating circumstances.

Murray made it quite clear at his year end interview, the only reason Cowen had not already been operated on was he (Murray) had asked Cowen to wait just in case they needed him.

Weircoich shouldn't be given anything, he needs to earn it and IMO he hasn't yet since it seems they are playing him sheltered minutes, if the Corsi stats are accurate, which I believe they are.

PS since you believe the team is better off without Cowen, which of the D is the fall guy for a D group that allowed 283 shots against in 6 games vs the Canadiens??
According to you PW wasn't the problem and deserves a 3/4 spot handed to him, so out of interest what pairing/players struggled?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Hopefully Wier's strong finish to the year + his Worlds performance can up his value enough to garner a decent return should we decide to trade him.

Would be smart to sell high on him now if the team doesn't think he'll help the team much in the future.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

Hopefully Wier's strong finish to the year + his Worlds performance can up his value enough to garner a decent return should we decide to trade him.

Would be smart to sell high on him now if the team doesn't think he'll help the team much in the future.

Not sure they should trade any of the existing group, possible exception being Phillips, unless they can acquire a top 4 thru trade or management feels Claesson or Wideman are ready for a 3/4 role (personally I doubt it).

 

[WhiteLight*]

Hopefully Wier's strong finish to the year + his Worlds performance can up his value enough to garner a decent return should we decide to trade him.

Would be smart to sell high on him now if the team doesn't think he'll help the team much in the future.

Not sure why they would think that

 

[Tee Lo]

Does anyone here actually believe Murray will sign a Top 4 D-Man in FA this Summer? It's very likely he doesn't.
So assuming you have the choice between Cowen and Wiercioch to play alongside Ceci on the second pairing to start next season, who do you pick?
Without a doubt it should be Wiercioch.
Despite the great run Hammond went on, people don't realize that the team played much better in front of him, than they did for Anderson.
Our D looked like this the second part of the season:

Methot-Karlsson
Wier-Ceci
Boro-Gryba

Cowen looked terrible next to Ceci at the start of the season. Wier was a big help for our D when he finally got the chance to play consistently. People always complain Wier had a slow start, but he never got the chance to string a few games together.

Cowen has been given plenty of time, and plenty of opportunities to make it work, and it never has. He's just not a smart hockey player. Simple as that.

Time to move on.

 

[Tee Lo]

PS since you believe the team is better off without Cowen, which of the D is the fall guy for a D group that allowed 283 shots against in 6 games vs the Canadiens??
According to you PW wasn't the problem and deserves a 3/4 spot handed to him, so out of interest what pairing/players struggled?

Ceci was very bad in this series, but that should be expected from young and inexperienced players. And Boro + Gryba were in their own zone for long periods at a time, and couldn't breakout the puck. So they gave up many scoring opportunities. That's why I want Wideman to play on the bottom pairing with Boro, so that we have a puck moving, mobile Defenseman on every pairing.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

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The end result has not been terrible, it is the unrealistic expectations people have for young, first round draftees, that are defensive defensemen that is problematic IMO.

The Corsi statistics QoC, rel QoC show Cowen in the top 2 amongst the current D and doing so while being ranked 5th with QoT.

QoC - quality of competition
QoT = quality of teammates

All I can say if Cowen is terrible there are a few other Sens D that are statistically even worse.

IMO I would have loved to see Cowen further along in his development but injuries happen and setbacks occur. However I have seen glimpses of what Cowen can do and hope BM continues to show patience with him.

Cowen's Corsi against is poor ES. Im curious what his corsi percentage is separated from karlsson.

This year cowen was 4th in corsi percentage for dmen but when you take away is time with karlsson he get quite a bit worse i believe


Cowen's corsi looks meh but when you take away time with karlsson hes worse. Second worst i believe. This would seem to fit him ranking worst in corsi against last year 2nd worst this year.


Fact is cowen sucks defensively at stopping teams from getting shooting attempts. He also ranked second worst to phillips in scoring chances against. Im more convinced his corsi percentage is only middle of the pack for the team because he plays with karlsson from time to time. I believe i looked at the numbers without karlsson and he becomes second worst or worst

Not an exaggeration to think Cowen might be this teams second worst dman and imo thats backed up by the eye test

Edit rechecked it and his corsi goes down to 47.5 away from karlsson. So not a big change but just slightly better then gryba

His corsi rating also drops away from Karlsson last year from 50.90(second worst on the team to Boro) to last at 47.7

This year Ceci with Cowen had a corsi of 47.8 away from cowen he had 49.8

Actually...looking at it everyone of nearly everyone when on the ice with Cowen gets worse then without him corsi wise. Turris is the closest to even at 50.2 with and 50.4 without. Kinda stunning
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1325&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5 (actually gryba got worse without Cowen as did greening and Neil
)

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Ceci was very bad in this series, but that should be expected from young and inexperienced players. And Boro + Gryba were in their own zone for long periods at a time, and couldn't breakout the puck. So they gave up many scoring opportunities. That's why I want Wideman to play on the bottom pairing with Boro, so that we have a puck moving, mobile Defenseman on every pairing.

Boro and Gryba were terrific. Ceci was literally the worst dman on the sens and probably cost us a game by himself. Boro and Gryba were basically as effective as Wier and i think Boro was only on the ice for 3 goals against the whole seiries. One was PP. Boro and Gryba both from a statistical stand point played very well. Better then their regular season.

I mean if people want to say Wier broke out for his playoff performance they can say the same thing about Gryba and Boro. The reason why people think they sucked at getting the puck out is because the started a high amount of their shifts in the dzone

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Does anyone here actually believe Murray will sign a Top 4 D-Man in FA this Summer? It's very likely he doesn't.
So assuming you have the choice between Cowen and Wiercioch to play alongside Ceci on the second pairing to start next season, who do you pick?
Without a doubt it should be Wiercioch.
Despite the great run Hammond went on, people don't realize that the team played much better in front of him, than they did for Anderson.
Our D looked like this the second part of the season:

Methot-Karlsson
Wier-Ceci
Boro-Gryba

Cowen looked terrible next to Ceci at the start of the season. Wier was a big help for our D when he finally got the chance to play consistently. People always complain Wier had a slow start, but he never got the chance to string a few games together.

Cowen has been given plenty of time, and plenty of opportunities to make it work, and it never has. He's just not a smart hockey player. Simple as that.

Time to move on.

Wrong. Very, very wrong. Cowen was solid in the first half of the season.

 

[Micklebot]

The end result has not been terrible, it is the unrealistic expectations people have for young, first round draftees, that are defensive defensemen that is problematic IMO.

The Corsi statistics QoC, rel QoC show Cowen in the top 2 amongst the current D and doing so while being ranked 5th with QoT.

QoC - quality of competition
QoT = quality of teammates

All I can say if Cowen is terrible there are a few other Sens D that are statistically even worse.

IMO I would have loved to see Cowen further along in his development but injuries happen and setbacks occur. However I have seen glimpses of what Cowen can do and hope BM continues to show patience with him.

Look, I understand that you like the guy, and want to show patience because he does have a great tool set, and the potential is there, but the end result is we have a young Dman that is 155th out of 164 D with 1500 + mins league wide over the last two years in goals against per 60 mins. He's done that in spite of Ottawa being 7th league wide in ES sv% over the same period. He adds little to no offense, so not much more than preventing goals is expected of him.

You bring up a good point about QOC potentially being the culprit, however, Ottawa doesn't exactly lean heavily on one pair like Nashville or even Toronto does, as they rather to spread out the starts more evenly, so rankings aren't telling the whole story.

QoC is simply not going to be the difference you think it is; let break down what those numbers are actually saying. Cowen, who has the Corsi Rel QoC with a .487 is deployed against competition that on average is +.487 shot attempts per 60 mins relative to it's team. The lowest ranked Rel Corsi QoC D on Ottawa (Phillips) sees competition that gets + .123 shot attemps per 60 rel to their team. That means relative to the lowest ranked Ottawa D, Cowen sees opposition that gets .364 more shot attempts per 60 mins relative to their own team. So, given that Cowen averages 15.21 mins a game, he'll exoect to see an extra shot attempt once every 10 games compared to Phillips (.364/60*15.21 = .0923 per game) based solely on competition.

The truth is Cowen is not getting brutal mins. They are certainly not soft mins, but he's not getting abnormally tough ones either. He has not been doing a good job of repressing shot attempts, nor repressing goals against.

Here's a dubious list he was top 10 in; GA/60 for D with rel Corsi QoC >.4, 38+ games, and 15 + mins per 60. He's 6th out of 99 surrounded by players from Toronto, Buffalo, and Edmonton.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...5v5&f4=D&f7=38&f13=.4&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+36

 

[Mr Invidious]

Wrong. Very, very wrong. Cowen was solid in the first half of the season.

What is funny about his analysis was that Ceci looked terrible with Cowen.

I swear, I felt like I was watching a different player than everyone else at the 1st half of this past season. Cowen looked good.

I still think this team needs to keep both Wiercioch and Cowen in the line-up. Let Patty play on the 2nd pairing and let Cowen replace Gryba's minutes/production. Get another 2nd pairing defenseman.

Methot - Karlsson
Wiercioch - ???
Cowen - Ceci
Boro

IMO, that's an improved line-up immediately.

 

[Micklebot]

Wrong. Very, very wrong. Cowen was solid in the first half of the season.

Well, he was terrible for the first few games with Karlsson, solid for a stretch with Ceci, and then pretty poor again (though the whole team was bad, so i'm not sure what to make of it).

Idk when the hernia hit, but I imagine he played through it for a while (like Ryan did the year before). Maybe a healthy Cowen can be a top 4 D, he has the tools. His decision making has been questionable at times, but that may be related to playing injured.

I don't want him traded unless we get value back, I'd rather lose him for nothing than get a 3rd or worse. The potential for him to put it all together is worth at least that.

That said, I'm more comfortable with Wiercioch in the lineup with Ceci than Cowen atm. Imo, Cowen should be on the bottom pair, but then again, so should most of our D.

 

[BigBush*]

Wrong. Very, very wrong. Cowen was solid in the first half of the season.

So solid he was scratched at times and played himself out of the line up