Confirmed Trade: Part 2:[OTT/SJ] Erik Karlsson and Francis Perron for Tierney, DeMelo, Norris, Balcers, 1st, 2nd

[Oates2Neely]

So let's get back to that, it was a really bad trade. Melnyk and Dorion need to go for the sens to have any hope of moving forward.

I figure Ottawa can still move both Stone and Duchene for a couple of 1st round picks +. Take on a few cap dumps to maintain the salary cap floor (taking draft picks as compensation for the favor). In 5 years Ottawa can be a force IF managed properly (insert joke here).

Sucks losing Karlsson but isn’t the end of the world. Draft draft draft

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

Oh.. the team had decided to get rid of Karlsson in February... why on earth didn’t they trade him at the deadline when he could’ve gotten more back?

Rumor was a trade was in place at the TDLwith SJ for EK, approved by Dorian, vetoed by Melynk

 

[4thline]

Forsberg as a ppg C rental -1st+3rd+ NHL ready top 9 forward (Upshall)+ Prospect stay at home D (Parent)
Sundin as a ppg C rental - (Rumoured) 1st+2nd+top 6 forward (Higgins)+ Prospect (Grabo)
Brian Leetch as one of top offensive D's in the game- 1st+2nd+ 2x depth prospects
Hossa as one of the top forwards in the game - 1st+Prospect+2x 3rd line forwards

Should EK's return scaled up from this due to his age/the full season/ his betterness, yes. But as a rental it was never going to be a franchise changing return. It never is. And that's before factoring in how much more teams understand the value of youth now in the salary cap era.

 

[DFC]

Rumor was a trade was in place at the TDLwith SJ for EK, approved by Dorian, vetoed by Melynk

Same rumor about TB on July 1 (or around that date).

 

[NyQuil]

I figure Ottawa can still move both Stone and Duchene for a couple of 1st round picks +. Take on a few cap dumps to maintain the salary cap floor (taking draft picks as compensation for the favor). In 5 years Ottawa can be a force IF managed properly (insert joke here).

Sucks losing Karlsson but isn’t the end of the world. Draft draft draft

The cautionary tale is assembling a whole bunch of talent with no one to learn from.

 

[lawrence]

Read the trade info a little more carefully. They did NOT receive just "conditional" picks.

The unconditional picks that the Senators received are:

1. 1st round pick in 2020 (this one is already in the bank)
2. 2nd round pick (this one is also in the bank).

The conditional picks (the ones you seem to have latched on to) are:

• 2nd round pick if he re signs with San Jose.
• 1st round pick if the Sharks reach the Stanley cup finals in 2019

In addition to the picks, they also received:

1. Prospects - Norris & Balcer
2. Player - Demelo.

I'm not trying to defend the trade or say that is was great. However, why do people misrepresent the facts when the info is out there and can so easily be found and back-checked? Odd thing to do.

Like how you used my “ in the bank” comment.

That being said, Norris and balcer are literally 2 different level of prospects. Unless there is something we don’t know about him.

 

[Saskatoon]

Melnyk. John Shannon said Wilson and Dorion had a deal worked out and Melnyk vetoed it. I'd have to imagine it was probably more than what they got too. Probably would've included Timo or Hertl I'd imagine.

Karlsson was without a doubt more valuable at the deadline last year. You got two playoff runs out of him with a good contract instead of just one. Honestly, the biggest mistake Ottawa made in maximizing his value was waiting until this year to trade him.

 

[lawrence]

You guys missed what I was saying completely. I'm saying they should have based the deal around multiple conditional 1st round picks, in addition to a 2020 1st.

And not awful conditions like an extra 2nd if he re-signs or a 1st if they go to the cup finals.

Well they already get a 1st and 2nd rounder got a 2017 1st rounder, 2 roster players under the age of 25. Made out better then what isles got for Tavares.

 

[strictlyrandy]

This isn't a bad trade in the sense that all the pieces are terrible. They're not. It's just so bad in that the pieces they got are meh and the piece they lost is Erik Karlsson.

Duchene got a better haul and this is sad. I legit feel bad for Sens fans. That this was the follow up to that cringy Melnyk video is just so heartbreaking.

 

[Nsjohnson]

In a vacuum where all players get traded before they go to UFA, this is horrible. Except this isn't that. This isn't as bad as letting him walk, which is what happened with Tavares, Gaborik, etc. But yes, the trade itself is terrible. But at least he got A return.

Who knows, maybe somehow, and I pray that this occurs, that a few of those guys pan out for the Sens and they draft a few good pieces, and their team get really young and talented in the next three years.

The Wild letting Gabby walk put this team back, I'd argue to this day. They felt they had to sign Suter and Parise to monster contracts, instead of in the draft(s) after say they had TRADED Gabby, they got SOMETHING, a few prospects and picks could have changed the Wild.

If they had received picks in 2009 and 2010, plus been able to still draft what they did in 2010 and 2011, maybe they have a better team.

So I guess it's better that the Sens got something.

 

[pbgoalie]

Interesting the Tavares comparisons flying around

How about Patches
Seems he got a better return than a Norris regular?

It’s too bad for Ottawa, losing a great player, and not capitalizing on it for a great return.
Getting SOMETHING ....IS....better than nothing, that’s the best that can be said imo

 

[hockfan1991]

Its bad for the Flames this year having Karlsson on the Sharks team but it sounds like he'll only be there for a year. Its being reported that Karlsson adamantly wants to test the free agent market next year so I expect he'll be going somewhere else... hopefully back East.

Couldnt be further from the truth. Karlsson has said he is open to signing extension, once he finds out with his family about the culture,city etc.

What your refering to is Karlsson saying hes gonna get what hes worth on the market.

Truth is Doug Wilson offered 2 million more per season then the leafs per season. It was taveras child hood dram to play for the leafs. Wilson has no problem paying Karlsson the contract he deserves, he has the support of the owner. Karlsson knows it already

 

[Bedards Dad]

I figure Ottawa can still move both Stone and Duchene for a couple of 1st round picks +. Take on a few cap dumps to maintain the salary cap floor (taking draft picks as compensation for the favor). In 5 years Ottawa can be a force IF managed properly (insert joke here).

Sucks losing Karlsson but isn’t the end of the world. Draft draft draft

Not having their own first this year is as big of a blow as losing EK, if not more.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Couldnt be further from the truth. Karlsson has said he is open to signing extension, once he finds out with his family about the culture,city etc.

What your refering to is Karlsson saying hes gonna get what hes worth on the market.

Truth is Doug Wilson offered 2 million more per season then the leafs per season. It was taveras child hood dram to play for the leafs. Wilson has no problem paying Karlsson the contract he deserves, he has the support of the owner. Karlsson knows it already

This is the exact hope of every Sharks fan right now.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

I think the thing that bothers me the most is I'm from San Jose born and raised and I know how much hockey has meant and MEANS to San Jose. To have people insinuating that the Sharks don't deserve Karlsson or saying he wont, or shouldn't resign here is disrespectful to the fans and the people who love the game in non traditional markets outside of Canada the East Coast and to an extent the Midwest. Look, I really feel for Sens fans just like I felt for Islanders fans, but I'm ecstatic to have Karlsson and would have been ecstatic to have Tavares too. I have a strong feeling that him and his wife will absolutely love the Bay Area.

 

[Oates2Neely]

The cautionary tale is assembling a whole bunch of talent with no one to learn from.

The Bruins would gladly offer Ottawa David Backes + a 3rd next summer for a C level prospect. Plenty to learn from Backes.

 

[Oates2Neely]

Not having their own first this year is as big of a blow as losing EK, if not more.

Agreed. Colorado must be licking their chops right now at the thought of landing a potential lottery pick in this upcoming deep draft.

Reminds me of when the Bruins were in the midst of playoff runs whilst drafting Seguin and Hamilton. Ahhh those were the days

 

[Battle Lin]

this is for 1 year of karlsson...vegas traded for 5 years of max and habs got a good return...this aint bad for one year of karlsson

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

You know how fans always say:

"We should have traded him before he left for free agency! We knew he wasn't going to re-sign!"

This is the kind of offer GMs are getting for those kind of players they lose to free agency. Hence why they don't usually make the trade but rather try to re-sign the player.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.​

 

[Dr Pepper]

this is for 1 year of karlsson...vegas traded for 5 years of max and habs got a good return...this aint bad for one year of karlsson

Yes it is.

Other teams likely would've ponied up more for EK at next year's trade deadline, just to have Karlsson for a late push and playoff run.

San Jose gets him for at least a full season, if not more.

Also, looking at the big picture, you can't tell me Pierre Dorion didn't get a single offer from another team that had a first in next year's draft.

You'd think for a team on the downswing, desperate for a first round pick, would make that a necessity.

Not the Sens, apparently.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

I would laugh so hard if EK resigned in Ott next year lol

And then you would pinch yourself and wake up.

 

[oilerbear]

Last thread over 1000

The league looking at Ottawa right now:

I am Rickithebear, who posted his hockey theories here as oilerbear since 2008.
As Rickithebear at TS 1260 Alan Mitchell’s since 05-06.

The sports analytic world is a collection linear Analytic math people who structure thier analysis for +ve -ve results.

I rejected this analytic aproach as a child. Compliments of talking to working friends of my father who was the leading mind of aerospace industry for 50 years.
- Interment development on avro aero
- Nuclear (Magnet guide fusion) powered deep space travel rocket development Jackass flats Nevada.
- instrument development & testing Apollo lunar lander& service module in Churchill.
- retro fit us Hawk SAM to function to late 2002 with .85 kill rate.
- designed ERTS (Landsat/Seasat) satellites & tracking program
- development of Motorola Home Satelite Dish with Motorola & SED systems.
- Exocet development
- Technical assistantance on Hitachi (Mag lev) Bullit train & Canada Arm.

My Analytics is multi variable Boolean measure of real world mechanism. From day one a marriage of game mechanism, with mapping of results from any action, & the sports best visual scoutting to identifify the path of play that can occur.
Allowing you to identify the structure, system, players best suited for a championship.

1. You want to win championships. 2 teams win championships each year. 28& now 29 losing teams each year. If you do not make the cup final you are a losing team. Making the playoffs is a losing attitude.

2. You win by getting more GF than you Get to win. +ve goal differential. You want + ve GDF results from each unit. The most accurate simplistic measure of a unit is +/-.
Even +/- vs 2.35 GDF/60
PP +/- vs 7.35 PPGF/60 PPG and PPP are 3 times easier to produce than even and should be paid 3 times less capwise than Even play.
PK +/- vs 7.35 PKGA/60 PKGA are 3 times harder to prevent than even. PK reduction should be paid 3 times more than even.
GM,s do it backwards. not VGK. I will get to that.

3. Until I presented the 2 key observations that allowed me to break down entire GA part of the game. Everyone valued offence first. Still do.
A. 48-50 yr observation, as a 4-6 year old high functioning autistic. Flin Flon bomber. It lead to My High danger area shot density theory (Rickisbox 06-11) (homeplate 12-18). Presented in (05-06).
The whole thoeryside of HD Density was developed by 06-07.

B. Played street hockey with a 7 year old boy when I was 10.
He wanted to play with the older boys and trade cards.we let him play goalie and taught him to not get cheated in hockey card trading. He did not stand up. He took the Esposito position but moved in a smooth direct positioning with the puck. ( tracking Phase 1) that hit the goalie at a high % rate. Table hockey goalie movement theory that lead to the other half of GA analysis.
Open/Closed shot theory: shots that hit goalies have 0% chance of going in
0% Corsi = (blocks + misses + closed shots)
Elite 0% corsi dmen: lowest% open shots/CA (#1 Russell, #2 DeHaan) have been able to define Russell for 12 years. MSM and linear hockey analysis’s. Cannot.
I did!
Thier is one person sites like war on ice, Corsica Hockey..... created thier data calculators off of. Without my permission I might add.

Since I was put on long term disability, I have been contacting individuals to establish a time line for my theories and observations.

That 7 year old, Ron Gunville Director Player Personel of PA raiders of WHL, and I had a laugh. He thought we played him in net cause he was the youngest. No cause you were good.

4. GF-GA who wins a cup?
Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bottom 30 GF
Top 5 reg ssn GF teams need top 15 GA.
Equal GA teams advances to or in the playoffs 20-40% more than GF teams.
GA def play is the key to playoff and cup advancement.
That has only been defined by my Boolean analysis.

5. The GA structure. GA reduction has 2 critical parts
Forwards NZ trap is the largest reducer of Zone entry and CA yeilded by offensive failing.
So the 3-2-1 structure is critical.
Dpair save%The Def triangle (2D-1G) def of the homeplate ( reduction of HD density & allowing lowest % open shots) establishes the Save a goalie is asked to perform around.

6. Off dmen are not dmen they are rovers (OFFENSIVE)
By structure and Z time. They are in fwd position as much as in homeplate area. As such there offence must be measured versus fwds and def measured against the best Hd&0% corsi dmen.
They are Rovers!
The CHL scout I talk to say it is now what they (them/team) believe.
Creating a 3F-1R-1D-1G creating a 1D-1G defence of homeplate and what my kids & I called “were is Waldo” Opp outman in front of the net. Causing the fans to False eye affect ( not understanding consistent correct system positioning play) blame the dman rather than the rover for causing the outman.
The true elite HD dmen can cover the homeplate in a 1R-1D-1G structure. There are 3 first comp HD Dmen Doughty, Chara, A. Larsson.
But you want to keep the 2nd /3rd comp D that can cover 1-1-1
Guys like Orpkik, Methot, Hjarlmasson, (1st comp cup years)
How was Karrlsons unit dif measure ( most important goal diff measure) without Methot this year.

Karlsson EvP/60 was a #7 forward production.
After the top 5 EVP/60 rovers they are #10 fwd (4th line )
You want dmen who can provide elite quick transition passing to forward to avoid opp NZ trap.
Get the puck to the 370-420 fwds more effective than you at even production.

Forward are 4 times more effective at even production than rovers and Dmen.

Cup core theory:
So from my 20+ theories that could be broken down into 70-100 academic papers and revisit of pastcup/conf teams.
I identified and started presenting my cup core theory over the last 8 years at other blog sites and here.

Once again Identified by Boolean multivariable observation & analysis. Player often repeat in cup finals.
The first to stand out was an eliteHD dman that appeared in 3 cup finals with 3 diffrent teams in
96 Fld
99 Buf
04 CGY

As specific coach, system, unit, position skills continued to repeat.
The cup core became Obvious.
1. Top HD sys coach
Gallant

2. Top 10 Open HD shot goalie (1 available in Exp draft)
Fleury

3. 3+ top 60 HD dmen ( 4 the last 3 years) 9 avail in exp)
3 top 10 Mcnabb, Stoner, Schmidt
2 top 25 Methot, TVR
2 top 45 C. Miller, Sbisa
2 top 60 Engelland, Garrison.
This was the deepest top 60cup Core def triangle ever.
Greater that
NJD cup runs 5 deep
LAK 3 years w/ 2 cup. 5 deep
EDM 05/06 5 deep but lost # 6 HD goalie replaced with sub 30 in cup final. And they still went to 7 games.
A 5 deep HD d team can win a cup with top 25 HD goalie.

4. Top 8 team Cummulative top 125 fwd production (16g 39p)
Mcdavid = 2.65 (5 available in exp) ( 3 fwds w/ more EV/PPTOI)
Neal, Perron, Smith, Marchesault, Eakin,
Karlsson, Haula, Tuch
Neal, Perron go. 2nd comp players
Statsny, Pacioretty 1st comp players in

5. +ve goal diff special teams. Pp production is the most over paid goal diff affect. While PK is the most under paid goal diff affect.
VGK acquired a lot of the top PK skaters in part 3. & 4. Selecting the best pk skaters still available.

VGK was a 100% copy of my Cup Core Roster Theory.
I stated on this site in Aril 2017 that from rough guess of players available they were a cup finals GA team.
Which all but makes you a conf/cup finalist.

When I saw the expansion list. Bprivided before the exp draft.
I told people at work they were a cup finalist.

I am a High functioning autistic. Who developed/ verified data and developed modeling for Coal power Plant conversion analysis in Alberta.
Over the years I have watched most of the hockey analytics community borrow, present my work inaccurately and poorly.
As linear academics would!
It has bothered me extensively.
My wife asked me to concentrate on my job which paid the bills.

Now that I am on Long term disability.
My award winning (sports page) editor/wtiter wife with Postmedia
Wants me to recover what is my work.
Stating that the failure to not credit me and financial profit my work is unethical.
My wife who suffered my years of rainman & beautiful mind sections laughed with me.
After the Postmedia people who recently brushed me off got the
Contact my wife at [email protected]
A person well know to guys like Gilbertson, Francis.

So while your trade opinions (point of view not based on facts or knowledge) are what I love as a hockey fan.

Thier is only one trade analysis supported by hockey analytics and cup appearance.
Boolean driven
not linear academic analysis. The copy borrowers.

Trade analysis to follow.

 

[Bedards Dad]

this is for 1 year of karlsson...vegas traded for 5 years of max and habs got a good return...this aint bad for one year of karlsson

At the time of the trade it wasn't 5 years. Timing is an important detail.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

How do you **** up this bad. I wasn’t expecting a kings ransom by any means. But come on. Max Pacioretty who struggled last year and wasn’t signed past this season got a a blue chip prospect.

To be fair, Pacioretty had most probably agreed to an extension when the trade took place.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

One thing to consider: we know DW is a player’s GM who values character, both on and off the ice. He keeps a strong relationship with his players.

The way that DW handled the Mike Hoffman situation, making it clear that he had no interest in having a player like Hoffman on his team, has to speak volumes to Erik Karlsson on a personal level, given that Karlsson is the player that Hoffman specifically had a rift with. DW did not know he was getting Karlsson, and he clearly made a less than optimal move for his team by trading Hoffman for merely a 2nd round pick; keeping Hoffman over that pick would have been far more optimal from a purely on-ice perspective.

It’s possible that the Hoffman situation will help DW when it comes to Karlsson. By showing that DW has no interest in bringing characters like Hoffman on his team, irregardless of whether or not they’ve got a rift with a player presently on the roster.

 

[Bedards Dad]

You know how fans always say:

"We should have traded him before he left for free agency! We knew he wasn't going to re-sign!"

This is the kind of offer GMs are getting for those kind of players they lose to free agency. Hence why they don't usually make the trade but rather try to re-sign the player.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.​

You make a good point. If you make the trade, you are laughed at and your fans bitch (Sens). If you dont trade and lose them to FA (Isles) your fans butch even more. Thete is no good way to go when you have bad management who cant lock up star players for long enough to get some value in a trade, or at least the foresight to trade earlier.