Ottawa/Detroit/New Jersey/Buffalo: Which team will breakout first?

what do you think?


  • Total voters
    557

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
The logic's pretty simple to me. During the start of the season, the games mattered to Detroit because they still potentially had chances for playoffs just like every other team. Now, they're mathematically eliminated, and have been out of realistic competition for a while. The games don't matter anymore. Actually, winning just hurts them, because it hurts their chances at the draft. This can cause a player to subconsciously not put in as much effort.

You're thinking only from the perspective of a contender or a bubble team, but it's actually the other way around for a team at the bottom of the standings - the later the season goes, the more meaningless games are.
If you actually think professionals aren't playing as hard because they want a draft position you are out of your mind. These are professionals playing for contracts and jobs. Typically nothing surprises me around here but this one has me in shock. Absolutely absurd.
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
Pretty aggressive statement here. It can be argued that when teams have already been eliminated from the POs and others are resting guys for the POs (e.g. toronto, Florida etc) that they’re not trying as hard. I agree the start of the season isn’t necessarily mroe meaningful but it’s not unheard of for bad teams to do well at the end of a season for exactly this reason

I think Ottawa is in a great spot but you guys are incredibly aggressive in this thread lol
The only aggressive thing in this thread right now are these hilarious excuses and not understanding these are professionals with millions on the line.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
The only aggressive thing in this thread right now are these hilarious excuses and not understanding these are professionals with millions on the line.
Sure bud. They’re also human beings and when they have no hope for the POs OR have their spot firmly locked in and don’t want to get injured, they also play differently. Players literally get scratched for maintenance days before the playoffs. Those guys don’t care about their “millions on the line”?
 

NyQuil

Big F$&*in Q
Jan 5, 2005
96,592
61,409
Ottawa, ON
Everyone has an excuse as to why their team hasn't taken the requisite steps forward.

Goaltending not good enough. Injuries at the worst times. COVID-19. Games not mattering later in the season.

What's funny is that there is a narrative that suits any eventuality.

If a team does really well after they are mathematically eliminated, everyone talks about how "the pressure is off now and it's easier to succeed" and when they play poorly, everyone says "well, they have nothing to play for."

If the pressure is off, as people are saying about Buffalo and Ottawa, why isn't Detroit playing better? If there is nothing to play for, why is Buffalo and Ottawa playing better than earlier in the season?

Talking heads have a causal story for anything that happens which is why I don't buy into these "explanations".

"You need depth to win in this league" says one pundit when the top line fails to score, but the 3rd and 4th lines do, only in the very next game, the same guy says "Well, your best players have to be your best players to win in this league".

I don't buy these narratives because people craft them to suit their own circumstances and portray their team's fortunes in the best light possible.
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
Sure bud. They’re also human beings and when they have no hope for the POs OR have their spot firmly locked in and don’t want to get injured, they also play differently. Players literally get scratched for maintenance days before the playoffs. Those guys don’t care about their “millions on the line”?
Keep the excuses coming. If you actually think that games at the start of the year 'matter more' go for it, you're only fooling yourself.
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
Everyone has an excuse as to why their team hasn't taken the requisite steps forward.

Goaltending not good enough. Injuries at the worst times. COVID-19. Games not mattering later in the season.

What's funny is that there is a narrative that suits any eventuality.

If a team does really well after they are mathematically eliminated, everyone talks about how "the pressure is off now and it makes it easier for them" and when they play poorly, everyone says "well, they have nothing to play for."

Talking heads have a causal story for anything that happens which is why I don't buy into these "explanations".

"You need depth to win in this league" says one pundit when the top line fails to score, but the 3rd and 4th lines do, only in the very next game, the same guy says "Well, your best players have to be your best players to win in this league".

I don't buy these narratives because people craft them to suit their own circumstances and portray their team's fortunes in the best light possible.
Bingo, seems to be one specific fan base that has the most of them coming. I am not disillusioned about what the Senators are, they arent a very good team with large holes. I could go on and on and say their goal differential is way better than any of these teams so they are closer to breaking out because thats typically a good indicator at the top of the standings and who goes further in the playoffs. I am not going to say that because it doesnt matter, what matters is how many points they have. Every team plays 82 games every team has injuries, every team has to deal with covid, every team plays basically the same schedule. Your team is what it is and thats its record doesnt matter when the wins and loses come.

One last hilarious excuse I have read is 'they are rookies they slowed down'. Yet they are the same age as other teams players in their 2nd year. Same fan base btw.

Bottom line is no one knows who the best of these 4 teams are going to be, they all have some great young pieces and they are all comparable. Ottawa was at the biggest disadvantage because of ownership, now that that looks like its hopefully getting resolved they should be on a more level playing field with the other 3.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
Keep the excuses coming. If you actually think that games at the start of the year 'matter more' go for it, you're only fooling yourself.
I didn’t say they did. I just said some teams might not play as hard at the end of the year because there is nothing to be gained for their team by winning more games or winning mroe decisively. Not sure how you can argue that a game when you are mathematically eliminated from the POs matters the exact same as when you still have a good chance.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
Everyone has an excuse as to why their team hasn't taken the requisite steps forward.

Goaltending not good enough. Injuries at the worst times. COVID-19. Games not mattering later in the season.

What's funny is that there is a narrative that suits any eventuality.

If a team does really well after they are mathematically eliminated, everyone talks about how "the pressure is off now and it's easier to succeed" and when they play poorly, everyone says "well, they have nothing to play for."

If the pressure is off, as people are saying about Buffalo and Ottawa, why isn't Detroit playing better? If there is nothing to play for, why is Buffalo and Ottawa playing better than earlier in the season?

Talking heads have a causal story for anything that happens which is why I don't buy into these "explanations".

"You need depth to win in this league" says one pundit when the top line fails to score, but the 3rd and 4th lines do, only in the very next game, the same guy says "Well, your best players have to be your best players to win in this league".

I don't buy these narratives because people craft them to suit their own circumstances and portray their team's fortunes in the best light possible.
Yes. Great point. There’s always an explanation for why every outcome is happening.

Difference is Wings fans are agreeing we suck ass whereas Ottawa fans are insisting it was all injuries and their play the second half of the season is indicative they’re actually a playoff team right now. Not a single Red Wings fan has said we’re in better shape than Ottawa. We just don’t agree that we’re in much worse shape based on these assertions about 2nd half record and injuries to Shane f’ing Pinto lol.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
Bingo, seems to be one specific fan base that has the most of them coming. I am not disillusioned about what the Senators are, they arent a very good team with large holes. I could go on and on and say their goal differential is way better than any of these teams so they are closer to breaking out because thats typically a good indicator at the top of the standings and who goes further in the playoffs. I am not going to say that because it doesnt matter, what matters is how many points they have. Every team plays 82 games every team has injuries, every team has to deal with covid, every team plays basically the same schedule. Your team is what it is and thats its record doesnt matter when the wins and loses come.

One last hilarious excuse I have read is 'they are rookies they slowed down'. Yet they are the same age as other teams players in their 2nd year. Same fan base btw.

Bottom line is no one knows who the best of these 4 teams are going to be, they all have some great young pieces and they are all comparable. Ottawa was at the biggest disadvantage because of ownership, now that that looks like its hopefully getting resolved they should be on a more level playing field with the other 3.
Huh? This thread is full of Ottawa fans claiming you guys were only bad because Ottawa was the only one of the bottom teams dealing with major injuries, the only one affected badly by COVID, talking about your 2nd half record as proof, etc. Each one of these talking points was brought up b an Ottawa fan..did you even read the thread?
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
I didn’t say they did. I just said some teams might not play as hard at the end of the year because there is nothing to be gained for their team by winning more games or winning mroe decisively. Not sure how you can argue that a game when you are mathematically eliminated from the POs matters the exact same as when you still have a good chance.
Guys are always competing for jobs, someone is always watching. Whether its ice time, or a contract there is always competition. Also what does that say about a team that was in the mix and suddenly were terrible, those games mattered too did the crack under the pressure? There is no way to spin it. A teams record is its record thats what they are until they prove they arent. We will see next season if any of these teams take a step. Personally if I had to bet on one I think its Buffalo. Ill still cheer for my team but the Sens D core is a mess. Unless thats fixed or Sanderson is a savior they wont be any good.
 

bert

Registered User
Nov 11, 2002
36,346
22,391
Visit site
Yes. Great point. There’s always an explanation for why every outcome is happening.

Difference is Wings fans are agreeing we suck ass whereas Ottawa fans are insisting it was all injuries and their play the second half of the season is indicative they’re actually a playoff team right now. Not a single Red Wings fan has said we’re in better shape than Ottawa. We just don’t agree that we’re in much worse shape based on these assertions about 2nd half record and injuries to Shane f’ing Pinto lol.
Uhhh what? Wings fans are the king of excuses. At the start of the year all you guys did is shit on everyone now that your team has come back to reality its excuses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ReginKarlssonLehner

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
Uhhh what? Wings fans are the king of excuses. At the start of the year all you guys did is shit on everyone now that your team has come back to reality its excuses.
Looks like you didn’t read the thread lol. Find me a single wings fan that’s making excuses in here for us being bad. Just one. The whole second half of the season thing was brought up by an Ottawa fan, not us. The Jakub Vrana injury was brought up in response to an Ottawa fan saying the Wings had no major injuries.

None of us are under any illusion about our team. We have 3-4 core pieces on the roster currently and a few coming in next year. We have confidence in Yzerman to right the ship. We think Blashill is terrible and him going out should help. We didn’t expect to be blown out as much as we did but this season went just as expected overall.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RedWingzz

NyQuil

Big F$&*in Q
Jan 5, 2005
96,592
61,409
Ottawa, ON
Yes. Great point. There’s always an explanation for why every outcome is happening.

Difference is Wings fans are agreeing we suck ass whereas Ottawa fans are insisting it was all injuries and their play the second half of the season is indicative they’re actually a playoff team right now. Not a single Red Wings fan has said we’re in better shape than Ottawa. We just don’t agree that we’re in much worse shape based on these assertions about 2nd half record and injuries to Shane f’ing Pinto lol.
LOL, in this very thread:

NyQuil said:
Well it was collegial in here for awhile.

Just as a reminder, all four of these teams stink, remember?

The aggressive dick measuring is a bit premature for all concerned.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
LOL, in this very thread:
Not saying you did it. But you only have to back 3 pages for multiple posts about Shane Pinto being a top 6 forward lost, Ottawa “pulling ahead next year”, superior records against playoff teams, superior record in the second half, injuries to Chabot, etc….it’s not exactly hidden. Not sure why you’re acting like it didn’t happen.

The only thing wings fans have said in this entire thread is that we don’t think Ottawa is in a significantly better position - because injuries happened to us too, because there are reasons to be playing well or playing bad at various points in the season (like you pointed out as well), because Shane Pinto isn’t a guaranteed top 6 forward. We agree that all these teams suck. I agree with another Ottawa fan in here that Buffalo is the best team out of these. Not a single Wings fan has said we are in the lead or l better than Ottawa. All we have argued is that we’re on a similar level…lol.
 

NyQuil

Big F$&*in Q
Jan 5, 2005
96,592
61,409
Ottawa, ON
Not saying you did it. But you only have to back 3 pages for multiple posts about Shane Pinto being a top 6 forward lost, Ottawa “pulling ahead next year”, superior records against playoff teams, superior record in the second half, injuries to Chabot, etc….it’s not exactly hidden. Not sure why you’re acting like it didn’t happen

Plenty going around about how all Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey needs is goaltending, and how Ottawa is clearly regressing with Detroit headed upward.

Buffoonery is not restricted to one fanbase.
 

RedHawkDown

still trying to trust the yzerplan
Aug 26, 2011
4,478
5,133
Canada
Plenty going around about how all Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey needs is goaltending, and how Ottawa is clearly regressing with Detroit headed upward.

Buffoonery is not restricted to one fanbase.
Can you show me where a single wings fan said all we need is goaltending? That person deserves a bonk on the head because that’s a ludicrous statement lol
 

WhereAreTheCookies

Registered User
Feb 16, 2022
3,151
5,359
Top Shelf
Plenty going around about how all Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey needs is goaltending, and how Ottawa is clearly regressing with Detroit headed upward.

Buffoonery is not restricted to one fanbase.
I believe it's less about saying all those teams need is goaltending and more that goaltending specifically is the biggest cause for concern among those teams. Average or better goaltending can mask a lot of other team issues, but it's obviously not the only hole for Jersey, Detroit or Buffalo. Hopefully Ottawa can continue to get above average goaltending from Forsberg.

That said, all 4 teams average under 3 goals per game (only LA and Dallas could make the playoffs this season averaging less than 3) which means none of them likely have the goal scoring needed to make the playoffs right now and all of them need increased scoring output or a combination of both better scoring and better goaltending. Additionally all 4 teams also allow more than 3 goals against per game, only 2 playoff teams currently allow more than 3 (Leafs and Wild) and they outscore their problems.
 
Last edited:

Benttheknee

Registered User
Jun 18, 2005
3,153
325
Ottawa
I don't buy these narratives because people craft them to suit their own circumstances and portray their team's fortunes in the best light possible.

I recall a game, perhaps 5 years ago, and a good team was beating Edmonton 5-0 after the first period and Pierre McGuire was saying how the Oilers were getting schooled by an experienced team. Edmonton won that game, and I was laughing so hard.

Pundits just use what they are given to keep us entertained.
 

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
21,535
15,580
Yes and no. The likelihood of him not being a contributing player is small. He isn't expected to be a 80 point forward. He is more likely to be a 60 point one that is very good defensively.
In his very first season? Very unlikely. Possible no rookies do that this season other than the 25 year old one.
 

Dubi Doo

Registered User
Aug 27, 2008
19,473
12,983
Buffalo's been playing at a high point pace for over a month now, and they look pretty good doing it. I think they could hit 90+ points next season, and be in the WC race. Granato has been a phenomenal hire, and I'm not sure the other teams have the same confidence in their coach.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Benttheknee

Team Cozens

Registered User
Oct 24, 2013
6,581
3,885
Burlington
Next year the gap between the wild card teams in the East.... Washington, Boston and possibly Pittsburgh will really shrink with the non playoff teams. Massive gap this year but I suspect Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit and the Devils will all be stealing points from the top teams. Expecting a tight battle right to the end.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Clam Jensen

Benttheknee

Registered User
Jun 18, 2005
3,153
325
Ottawa
In his very first season? Very unlikely. Possible no rookies do that this season other than the 25 year old one.

Fair comment, I do not expect him to be that good in year one, however next year he will be further down the lineup, so he will contribute at that level well enough and he will fit fine in the top 6 as injuries impact the team.

He is an upgrade on players currently in the lineup.
 

biturbo19

Registered User
Jul 13, 2010
26,174
11,253
It's gotta be New Jersey. If they could get some halfway competent goaltending, they'd probably be "breaking out" already.

They've still got some big holes on the blueline, but they have plausible candidates to fill them coming along, and their other talent is really starting to blossom. They also haven't spent ages in the cellar like the other teams here. It's easier to climb out of those depths when you haven't plumbed them for so long like Buffalo et al.
 

TBF1972

Registered User
May 19, 2018
7,979
6,418
It's gotta be New Jersey. If they could get some halfway competent goaltending, they'd probably be "breaking out" already.

They've still got some big holes on the blueline, but they have plausible candidates to fill them coming along, and their other talent is really starting to blossom. They also haven't spent ages in the cellar like the other teams here. It's easier to climb out of those depths when you haven't plumbed them for so long like Buffalo et al.
a massively declining devils team had a surprise appearance in the sc finals in 2012. they missed the po the next 5 seasons without adding any top tier talents (thanks lou and david) for ages. the 2018 po appearance in hischier's rookie season was again surprising and no break out.

you can easily say the devils are a lottery team for the last 10 seasons. but they added real talent rather late. the larsson pick was basically deferred by 9 seasons and turned then into mercer, bahl and hamburglar. the hischier pick 5 years ago is kind of the kick start for the devils rebuild. if they can't resolve the issues between in the net, this might drag along for much longer than intended.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad