Ottawa/Detroit/New Jersey/Buffalo: Which team will breakout first?

[Oneiro]

I agree with those who take issue with NJ's defending.

Small but relevant detail is that Nasreddine has been the D coach since Shero took over in 2015 and somehow is still behind the bench. I can't say a single player has been developed well on the defensive side of the puck while he's been around, including Hischier who should've been this good much earlier in my mind. So, if the staff gets axed - and they should be - look to see what happens to the overall structure for the Devils.

Goaltending aside, my view is that NJ is one of the best transition teams / rush offenses in the league but in-zone scoring and defending is where the improvement needs to happen. Siegenthaler and Mercer are a great start (Mercer's metrics aren't great but I expect him to improve) and it looks like J. Boqvist is a sharp player as well. Jury is out on Bahl and Okhotiuk who have both looked encouraging but I'm not ready to sing their praises yet.

 

[NyQuil]

I’m sorry that was so traumatic for all you Sens fans. You’re the only ones who have seemed to care.

Justification is Rasmus Dahlin. Then there’s Tage Thompson, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson. A bit deeper you’ve got Alex Tuch, Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner (yeah he’d be Ottawa’s leading scorer this year) and even a resurrected Kyle Okposo. Even further, there’s rising prospects Rasmus Asplund, Casey Mittelstadt, Henri Jokiharju, Dylan Cozens, and Peyton Krebs. And then… there’s the AHL’s most electrifying duo in Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka. Oh and then there’s 4 more picks in the top 40 of this years draft.

Hope this helps.

Yeah, some of those guys may have come up in the 500 posts before yours.

Maybe read a little bit next time and join in instead of pretending that you’re the only one who knows who is on the Sabres roster.

 

[Panthaz89]

I’m a Devils fan and I voted for the Sabres simply because their fans seemed the most chill on this thread (at least so far).

We have been humbled by 10+ years of losing.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

So you think 2 rookies, an imaginary UFA that hasnt signed yet, what should have been a cap dump trade and a career 4th liner are whats going to do it.

Not every rookie dman steps in and plays like Seider, and without that kind of contribution from Sanderson its just wishful thinking.

All of these teams can make a list of guys like that pretty easily, but it doesnt make any of these teams actual playoff teams at all

First of all, do you understand what a hypothetical is? Like none of these teams are playoff teams in their current state dude, you're not a detective for pointing that out. We're discussing the moves needed to push those teams in that direction, and I provided a realistic scenario for the changes Ottawa might make to their team next year.

I'm not sure why you think 2 rookies can't have an immense impact on the team. Norris and Stützle were rookies last year, and they were immediately top 6 players in the NHL. What they gave up for Hamonic is irrelevant, he is a stable presence on the blueline and he has shown to be a large improvement over Josh Brown who was playing in that role for majority of the season. Calling Joseph a career 4th liner is disingenuous and you know it. Not even Lightning fans would cap him as a 4th liner, what ridiculous rhetoric.

No not every dman plays like Seider, but you'd have to be pretty unfamiliar with Jake Sanderson if you think that's out of the realm of possibility. Sanderson is a pretty highly touted prospect, and the professional scouting consensus this year was that he was the best defenseman outside of the NHL this past season. They also don't need him to be as good as Seider though, because they already have Thomas Chabot, who is a legitimate #1. The most Sanderson will be asked to do next season is carry the 2nd pairing, which really isn't that hard to imagine a highly touted defenseman like Sanderson doing.

 

[Matt Ress]

Yeah, some of those guys may have come up in the 500 posts before yours.

Maybe read a little bit next time and join in instead of pretending that you’re the only one who knows who is on the Sabres roster.

To be fair, it's like 24 pages of watching 3 Karen's argue over who's hair is shortest. Sorry about the bump everyone.

 

[NyQuil]

To be fair, it's like 24 pages of watching 3 Karen's argue over who's hair is shortest. Sorry about the bump everyone.

I suppose I can’t blame anyone for skipping large swaths of it.

 

[NyQuil]

I think the challenge as some have pointed out, is this idea of "breaking out" being the standard.

I think the OP does well in defining it as a "consistent playoff team" which also basically means that the poll as articulated will not even be resolved at the end of next season.

Ottawa did put together a little run but like Montreal this past season, no one was particularly surprised when it wasn't replicated the following year and they imploded.

I'm sure Buffalo, Detroit and New Jersey have also had some "dead cat bounce" moments where their fans hope things were turning around but were still not overly confident about it.

Inevitably, the outcomes are also related to the performance of the other teams in their division.

Based on what I've read throughout, I think it's still pretty close, which is what makes the poll interesting. All four fanbases have a high degree of confidence in their nucleus.

It's turned into a sort of bizarre rivalry of circumstance. Perhaps depressingly, it's very unlikely that all four teams will turn it around.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I’m going with the Sabres. Two 1D’s. I don’t know that I think they have an elite forward, but a lot of good pieces for a top 6/9. One of the goalies should pan out.

Devils goaltending sucks and their defense isn’t that great either.

Detroit is well run with Yzerman and has some great pieces, but still lacks any depth.

Senators are close, but I also think they have too many questions at each level of the team.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Well it's a lot better than massively regressing in the 2nd half of the season. It would take some serious mental gymnastics to see improving your record and performance in the 2nd half of the season as a negative thing while somehow massively regressing isn't seen as a disappointment.

Regressing in the second half is also not completely unexpected when large parts of your team depends on the performance on rookies that have never played an 82 game season.

Ottawa has no real notable rookies on this year's roster, Detroit had their #1D, #1G and one of their top forwards, as well as some depth guys.

You can also make an argument that when games actually mattered, Detroit played better which is a good sign.
Winning meaningless games down the stretch is nice, but it's not necessarily a sign that they're going to come out of the gate next year doing the same.

 

[sr edler]

and Miles Wood

I had forgotten all about Miles Wood, but it still doesn't move the needle for me.

 

[Benttheknee]

Today I learned that Shane Pinto, with career stats of 1G/8pts in 17 games is a top 6 player

Did you check out Craig Buttons top prospects recently? Pinto was not listed because he was considered to be an NHL player despite only 17 NHL games played. That should help you understand that Pinto is not a typical unknown prospect. He is an NHLer, no questions asked.

 

[DFF]

New Jersey

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Ottawa is 7-1-0 against these other 3 teams with a goal differential of +17. Just saying. For as much speculation going on in this thread, when these teams have gone head-to-head, only one team here has shown to be consistently the best team.

When you realize this means essentially nothing in the grand scheme of things…

Detroit was undefeated against Montreal in their historically bad season. Montreal was in the Finals the next year.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Did you check out Craig Buttons top prospects recently? Pinto was not listed because he was considered to be an NHL player despite only 17 NHL games played. That should help you understand that Pinto is not a typical unknown prospect. He is an NHLer, no questions asked.

He’s an NHLer sure. How good of one is completely unknown

 

[ijuka]

I'd like to say Sabres. Then again, I've thought so for the past decade or so. But maybe this time.

 

[swiper]

Bunch of fanboys weighing in here with not much more than their hearts.

 

[swiper]

Sabres add Power, Peterka and Quinn next season. They are a goaltender away from turning the corner. All 4 teams have the capability of becoming better. Some play-off teams going to lose players due to cap constraints (ie Calgary). If any of these 4 teams pick up a palyer like Gaudreau or Tkachuk could be all the difference. Sabres had to assume Johnny Boychuk's $6 million contract to get to the floor. They have cash they can spend, if they want to.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Sabres add Power, Peterka and Quinn next season. They are a goaltender away from turning the corner. All 4 teams have the capability of becoming better. Some play-off teams going to lose players due to cap constraints (ie Calgary). If any of these 4 teams pick up a palyer like Gaudreau or Tkachuk could be all the difference. Sabres had to assume Johnny Boychuk's $6 million contract to get to the floor. They have cash they can spend, if they want to.

I’d caution any of these four against paying the four pick compensation for Tkachuk.

Good chance they’re all still lottery level even adding him.

 

[Benttheknee]

He’s an NHLer sure. How good of one is completely unknown

Yes and no. The likelihood of him not being a contributing player is small. He isn't expected to be a 80 point forward. He is more likely to be a 60 point one that is very good defensively.

 

[bert]

Regressing in the second half is also not completely unexpected when large parts of your team depends on the performance on rookies that have never played an 82 game season.

Ottawa has no real notable rookies on this year's roster, Detroit had their #1D, #1G and one of their top forwards, as well as some depth guys.

You can also make an argument that when games actually mattered, Detroit played better which is a good sign.
Winning meaningless games down the stretch is nice, but it's not necessarily a sign that they're going to come out of the gate next year doing the same.

This is such a ridiculous post. Specifically the bolded part. How did you post this and felt confident you are contributing.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Sabres add Power, Peterka and Quinn next season. They are a goaltender away from turning the corner. All 4 teams have the capability of becoming better. Some play-off teams going to lose players due to cap constraints (ie Calgary). If any of these 4 teams pick up a palyer like Gaudreau or Tkachuk could be all the difference. Sabres had to assume Johnny Boychuk's $6 million contract to get to the floor. They have cash they can spend, if they want to.

Boychuk was finally a Sabre, and couldn’t even play

 

[Pavels Dog]

This is such a ridiculous post. Specifically the bolded part. How did you post this and felt confident you are contributing.

If you can't actually make an argument or adress any of the content in the posts you probably shouldn't criticize others for lack of contribution.

 

[bert]

If you can't actually make an argument or adress any of the content in the posts you probably shouldn't criticize others for lack of contribution.

You made the most asinine comment with conviction I've read on here. In what world are games more important at the start of the season? When teams are fighting for playoff position or to get in that's when the intensity is the highest. However all the points are equally as important so it doesn't matter when the team wins its the overall record that counts.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You made the most asinine comment with conviction I've read on here. In what world are games more important at the start of the season? When teams are fighting for playoff position or to get in that's when the intensity is the highest. However all the points are equally as important so it doesn't matter when the team wins its the overall record that counts.

Pretty aggressive statement here. It can be argued that when teams have already been eliminated from the POs and others are resting guys for the POs (e.g. toronto, Florida etc) that they’re not trying as hard. I agree the start of the season isn’t necessarily mroe meaningful but it’s not unheard of for bad teams to do well at the end of a season for exactly this reason

I think Ottawa is in a great spot but you guys are incredibly aggressive in this thread lol

 

[ijuka]

You made the most asinine comment with conviction I've read on here. In what world are games more important at the start of the season? When teams are fighting for playoff position or to get in that's when the intensity is the highest. However all the points are equally as important so it doesn't matter when the team wins its the overall record that counts.

The logic's pretty simple to me. During the start of the season, the games mattered to Detroit because they still potentially had chances for playoffs just like every other team. Now, they're mathematically eliminated, and have been out of realistic competition for a while. The games don't matter anymore. Actually, winning just hurts them, because it hurts their chances at the draft. This can cause a player to subconsciously not put in as much effort.

You're thinking only from the perspective of a contender or a bubble team, but it's actually the other way around for a team at the bottom of the standings - the later the season goes, the more meaningless games are.