Seravalli: On Elias Lindholm: "I think he will either be signed by draft week or traded."

[Some Other Flame]

Sure some have 2 number one centers, I still stick to the there is 32 number one centers.

Okay but still that won't make it make any sense.

 

[AKL]

The only coincidence here is that every single linemate he has had in Calgary has enjoyed career years playing next to him.

Well except Tkachuk of course, who had an even better season this year, while Lindholm's production dropped by 20 points. And Huberdeau, who had to be taken off his line because that wasn't working out for anyone. Besides those guys, and Gaudreau, who clearly wasn't getting carried by Lindholm, it's just a long list of middle six players next to him on the top line, so it's no wonder they had "career years", none of them had ever played that high in a lineup before. That doesn't make Lindholm anything other than a ~70 point complementary top six center with the capacity for 80 when his linemates both manage to score 100+.

Players who lead though will get 12-14M from the market, not 8

Two guys right now making 12-14M and they're McDavid and MacKinnon. Pastrnak just signed a contract and he didn't crack 12M. Gaudreau signed for under 10. Kaprizov is at 9. Panarin is under 12.

Give it 5-10 years and you'll see more 12+, but right now "players who lead" are getting 9-11, not 12-14. So right now, players who don't lead don't get 8.5.

 

[BB88]

Well except Tkachuk of course, who had an even better season this year, while Lindholm's production dropped by 20 points. And Huberdeau, who had to be taken off his line because that wasn't working out for anyone. Besides those guys, and Gaudreau, who clearly wasn't getting carried by Lindholm, it's just a long list of middle six players next to him on the top line, so it's no wonder they had "career years", none of them had ever played that high in a lineup before. That doesn't make Lindholm anything other than a ~70 point complementary top six center with the capacity for 80 when his linemates both manage to score 100+.



Two guys right now making 12-14M and they're McDavid and MacKinnon. Pastrnak just signed a contract and he didn't crack 12M. Gaudreau signed for under 10. Kaprizov is at 9. Panarin is under 12.

Give it 5-10 years and you'll see more 12+, but right now "players who lead" are getting 9-11, not 12-14. So right now, players who don't lead don't get 8.5.

Got, not what are going to get.

Lindholms deal will kick in 2024.
Good luck getting franchise tier players from the market for less than that 2024->

 

[AKL]

Got, not what are going to get.

Lindholms deal will kick in 2024.
Good luck getting franchise tier players from the market for less than that 2024->

Franchise tier players =/= players who lead. You're still talking about the top 5, maybe 10 players in the entire league. Those are certainly not the only guys who lead. And Lindholm is nowhere near a franchise player. Not even close.

 

[Digitalbooya]

He's played at at a 72 point pace since being acquired by Calgary in over 350 games... That's a five year span..
He hasn't paced for less than a 64 point season one time in a Flames uniform.

I'm less impressed with added context. We signed a similar player in Eriksson Ek to a long term deal at just over $5M. With Lindholm's offense being better, I would cap my AAV offer at $7-7.5M.

 

[AKL]

He's played at at a 72 point pace since being acquired by Calgary in over 350 games... That's a five year span..
He hasn't paced for less than a 64 point season one time in a Flames uniform.

He's also paced for under 70 points 3 of those five seasons, so I'm more inclined to call him a 65 point player than an 80 point player.

 

[BB88]

Franchise tier players =/= players who lead. You're still talking about the top 5, maybe 10 players in the entire league. Those are certainly not the only guys who lead. And Lindholm is nowhere near a franchise player. Not even close.

& he’s not going to get paid like that.

He’s going to get paid similar to Horvat/Miller/PLD.

Franchise players in their prime are going to get paid and far more than them

 

[AKL]

& he’s not going to get paid like that.

He’s going to get paid similar to Horvat/Miller/PLD.

He might, but those are widely accepted as poor value contracts. So that's not exactly the point you think it is when it comes to his value.

 

[kdog82]

P

or cap space

Pretty sure Lindholm's 4.8 is manageable.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Well except Tkachuk of course, who had an even better season this year, while Lindholm's production dropped by 20 points. And Huberdeau, who had to be taken off his line because that wasn't working out for anyone. Besides those guys, and Gaudreau, who clearly wasn't getting carried by Lindholm, it's just a long list of middle six players next to him on the top line, so it's no wonder they had "career years", none of them had ever played that high in a lineup before. That doesn't make Lindholm anything other than a ~70 point complementary top six center with the capacity for 80 when his linemates both manage to score 100+.

Tkachuk scored more points this season strictly because he played 3 more minutes per game than he did under dinosaur Darryl. His rates were worse, but I wouldn't expect you to take that into consideration. Additionally - are you really going to use a 15-20 game sample with Huberdeau to discredit Lindholm here? Lindholm was 144th among NHL forwards in five on five ice time this past year and played alongside a career second liner, and career third liner, and yet he still managed to score 64 points.

Lindholm's game is only complimentary in the sense that he does all of the heavy lifting for these guys, and creates time and space for them. You seem to view the game of hockey through a very narrow lens if you believe his elite 200 foot game doesn't make those around him significantly better. This guy drives the play forward at an elite level.

 

[Detroit Knights]

P

Pretty sure Lindholm's 4.8 is manageable.

is it? BOS has 5 mil in cap space

Are they going to resign bert/krejci/bergeron/nosek/clifton/foligno/swayman?

 

[AKL]

Tkachuk scored more points this season strictly because he played 3 more minutes per game than he did under dinosaur Darryl. His rates were worse, but I wouldn't expect you to take that into consideration.

Right because it doesn't matter, unless you can prove right here that those extra points are a direct result of exclusively those extra minutes. 109>104. Better is better.

Additionally - are you really going to use a 15-20 game sample with Huberdeau to discredit Lindholm here? Lindholm was 144th among NHL forwards in five on five ice time this past year and played alongside a career second liner, and career third liner, and yet he still managed to score 64 points.

Sounds like complementary second line center stuff to me.

Lindholm's game is only complimentary in the sense that he does all of the heavy lifting for these guys, and creates time and space for them. You seem to view the game of hockey through a very narrow lens if you believe his elite 200 foot game doesn't make those around him significantly better. This guy drives the play forward at an elite level.

Complementary*

His 64 points says he doesn't drive much of anything at an elite level. Good defensive player though.

In order to be an elite 200 foot player, you have to be elite for all 200 feet. Not just the 125 feet closest to your own net.

 

[HighLifeMan]

Right because it doesn't matter, unless you can prove right here that those extra points are a direct result of exclusively those extra minutes. 109>104. Better is better.



Sounds like complementary second line center stuff to me.



Complementary*

His 64 points says he doesn't drive much of anything at an elite level. Good defensive player though.

Right so the linemate and usage argument only applies when it supports your narrative, got it.

Your analysis of the player is incredibly shallow.

I guess Patrice Bergeron enjoyed a complementary career, too, huh?

 

[AKL]

Right so the linemate and usage argument only applies when it supports your narrative, got it.

Your analysis of the player is incredibly shallow.

I guess Patrice Bergeron enjoyed a complimentary career, too, huh?

Can't keep taking you seriously when you're purposely using the wrong word over and over again, it's just low effort at this point. But wouldn't expect much else from you.

 

[Dog]

Minnesota Wild probably be a good destination!

 

[AKL]

Minnesota Wild probably be a good destination!

Not for the cost of giving up multiple 1sts+ and paying him 8.5M they aren't.

 

[BB88]

He might, but those are widely accepted as poor value contracts. So that's not exactly the point you think it is when it comes to his value.

I’d just love to live in a world as well where low end 1C’s get paid 7M moving forward when superstar money is at 12+.

It’s just not reality though

 

[lucaseider]

He’s put up 70+ point pace once in the last four seasons.

If you wanna ignore the 72 point pace since he joined the flames that's fine. I am just saying 8.5 for one of the best 2 way centers isn't bad, and I would not mind if my wings signed him to that. Most people know that he is very good. Most people acknowledge he is a number 1 center in the NHL.

 

[ViD]

Severson just had to switch his CBJ number to 78 from 28.

Lindholm to Columbus (E4)

 

[Nanuuk]

Severson just had to switch his CBJ number to 78 from 28.

Lindholm to Columbus (E4)

Now that is interesting. Could be nothing, could be everything.

It certainly would be a good fit for Columbus. They could arguably have the number one line in the league.

Settling on the price is where things get dicey.

A player of Lindholm's stature should garner a high return.

JT Miller to Vancouver cost a 2020 1st (conditional), a 2019 3rd, and the right to a goalie.

Bo Horvat was traded to NJ for a 2023 1st (11th overall), a roster player (Beauvillier) and a prospect (Raty).

Andrew Copp was traded to the Rangers with a 2023 6th for a 2022 1st, a 2022 2nd, a 2023 5th, and a roster player (Barron).

So I'm not sure what Columbus would have to offer other than their 1st (3rd overall) which might lower the number of picks to acquire this player and a roster player and prospect.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

He might, but those are widely accepted as poor value contracts. So that's not exactly the point you think it is when it comes to his value.

Is Zibanejad viewed as a poor value contract too? What about Hintz or Thomas?

 

[ViD]

Now that is interesting. Could be nothing, could be everything.

It certainly would be a good fit for Columbus. They could arguably have the number one line in the league.

Settling on the price is where things get dicey.

A player of Lindholm's stature should garner a high return.

JT Miller to Vancouver cost a 2020 1st (conditional), a 2019 3rd, and the right to a goalie.

Bo Horvat was traded to NJ for a 2023 1st (11th overall), a roster player (Beauvillier) and a prospect (Raty).

Andrew Copp was traded to the Rangers with a 2023 6th for a 2022 1st, a 2022 2nd, a 2023 5th, and a roster player (Barron).

So I'm not sure what Columbus would have to offer other than their 1st (3rd overall) which might lower the number of picks to acquire this player and a roster player and prospect.

While some CBJ fans will not agree to this proposal, I would offer 2024 1st (top 5 protected), Cole Sillinger and a prospect of your choice not named Jiricek, Johnson, Marchenko, Mateychuk, Dumais and likely Svozil.

That’s for sign and trade option obviously.

 

[Digitalbooya]

If you wanna ignore the 72 point pace since he joined the flames that's fine. I am just saying 8.5 for one of the best 2 way centers isn't bad, and I would not mind if my wings signed him to that. Most people know that he is very good. Most people acknowledge he is a number 1 center in the NHL.

He was barely ppg next to two 100+ point players. He had three good years of about 66 point pace besides that ppg season.

If Lindholm is more in line with this year’s number (64 points) going forward, are you still okay with $8.5M per? I’d be disappointed in that. Just like how Islander fans will soon enough be disappointed in the Horvat contract.

 

[Nanuuk]

While some CBJ fans will not agree to this proposal, I would offer 2024 1st (top 5 protected), Cole Sillinger and a prospect of your choice not named Jiricek, Johnson, Marchenko, Mateychuk, Dumais and likely Svozil.

That’s for sign and trade option obviously.

I don't think that would be enough, but what do I know?

 

[Digitalbooya]

Is Zibanejad viewed as a poor value contract too? What about Hintz or Thomas?

I’d take all of those players over Lindholm.