Speculation: Offseason Thread Pt V

[MJF]

Their toughness is a real problem, I readily concede that. But Barrie for Gardiner is an even swap, I'd say. And I don't think Gardiner played in the playoffs, right? As far as being better than last year? They lost to the Bruins in 7 (after being up 3-2). That series could easily have gone either way. I don't know if they are better than last year, but they easily could perform better than they did.

TBH, I don't even know who their backup goalie is this year. Can't be worse than Sparks though, can it?

Edit to add: Losing Kadri wasn't just about salary cap. After all his nonsense, he had to go. Its on them though that he was the only player who played with any grit. Zach Hyman can too but he's out for a while.

(But **** you for making me defend the Leafs. I need to shower).

Their backup is now Michael Hutchinson, who after a good rookie year in Winnipeg 4 years ago is now on his 3rd organization and couldn’t stick in the NHL with the last 2. Since I’m not a big fan of their current number 1, I could make a case for Freddy Andersson not starting more than 45-50 games as he seems to wear down as the season goes on. A backup like Hutchinson forces a coach to keep running Andersson out there. Hutch may be marginally worse than Sparks. They were better off when they had McIlheinny.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

They were good last year and they got bounced in the first round. Now Gardiner is gone, they took a step backwards with their backup goalie to save $50,000.

If you thought their lineup was feather soft last year, what did they do to change that this year?

I agree. They will miss Gardiner. Barrie is all offence not so much Defence. It was a lateral move at best. Ceci, without DJ Smith to tutor him may be a mess. You are right about the Laffs softness. They are not built to win in the playoffs. I see them taking another step backward this year. Infact they may be on the bubble to make the playoffs. They have cap problems, they have holes on their bottom 6 because they are so top heavy in investment on their top 4 fwds. Assuming Dumbass caves, as we know he usually does. They also lost Hillier as an assistant coach to us. He was pretty decent running the PP. The Leafs may look good on paper, but I see them with giant holes. Also there may be some resentment in the locker room from Marner's negotiations. We will see. But I see them on the bubble this year.

 

[crasherino]

Their backup is now Michael Hutchinson, who after a good rookie year in Winnipeg 4 years ago is now on his 3rd organization and couldn’t stick in the NHL with the last 2. Since I’m not a big fan of their current number 1, I could make a case for Freddy Andersson not starting more than 45-50 games as he seems to wear down as the season goes on. A backup like Hutchinson forces a coach to keep running Andersson out there. Hutch may be marginally worse than Sparks. They were better off when they had McIlheinny.

Agreed. I wouldn't want Hutchinson starting more than 20 games for my team.

We stepped in shit with Greiss. Backup goalies are usually interchangeable and replaceable. We got 3 (0ut of 4) good years out of Greiss with him ascending to 1B level. That's not the norm. That's OK though - there are a lot of other areas where we've shit the bed too. We're entitled to one victory.

 

[MJF]

I agree. They will miss Gardiner. Barrie is all offence not so much Defence. It was a lateral move at best. Ceci, without DJ Smith to tutor him may be a mess. You are right about the Laffs softness. They are not built to win in the playoffs. I see them taking another step backward this year. Infact they may be on the bubble to make the playoffs. They have cap problems, they have holes on their bottom 6 because they are so top heavy in investment on their top 4 fwds. Assuming Dumbass caves, as we know he usually does. They also lost Hillier as an assistant coach to us. He was pretty decent running the PP. The Leafs may look good on paper, but I see them with giant holes. Also there may be some resentment in the locker room from Marner's negotiations. We will see. But I see them on the bubble this year.

Agreed. Maybe not a bubble team but another early exit for sure.

For everyone who thinks the Isles are too bottom heavy, the Leafs are an example of a team being too top heavy. Neither one is balanced but it is still easier to win with a defense-oriented system than an offense first team.

 

[Merrrlin]

In a salary cap league sometimes you have to say no. Not only did it cost them Kadri, it also cost them the ability to resign Jake Gardiner.

They knew that they had 3 RFA contracts that were ticking time bombs and the 3rd one is exploding now. Because they signed Tavares, Dubas and Shanahan are going to have to hope they can outscore the competition every night because they are even more defensively challenged this season than they were last season.

If we had the option to sign Stamkos or Karlsson, or some other top line player as a UFA...but we knew it would impact signing some of our young talent and staying under the cap, would you forego bringing in that top UFA? Imagine we brought in a UFA Parayko, and then we were able to trade Pulock or Dobson for assets, like a young #2C or a stud prospect with UFA years left over.

We come out on top with more assets.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Agreed. Maybe not a bubble team but another early exit for sure.

For everyone who thinks the Isles are too bottom heavy, the Leafs are an example of a team being too top heavy. Neither one is balanced but it is still easier to win with a defense-oriented system than an offense first team.

I think Florida is a real wild card. They got one of the best coaches in hockey. We first hand know the affect of this. TB and Boston are going nowhere. We will see, but call it the pajamas effect. Losing or a dark cloud seem to follow him around.

 

[crasherino]

I think Florida is a real wild card. They got one of the best coaches in hockey. We first hand know the affect of this. TB and Boston are going nowhere. We will see, but call it the pajamas effect. Losing or a dark cloud seem to follow him around.

Sometimes I think playing in FL (with no spirit at all) sucks the life/skill out of that team. They should be a perennial playoff team with Barkov, Trochek, Hubedeau, etc. We'll see what happens this year with Quenville but I wouldn't be surprised if that team makes a leap finally. Especially if BOB is healthy.

 

[MJF]

If we had the option to sign Stamkos or Karlsson, or some other top line player as a UFA...but we knew it would impact signing some of our young talent and staying under the cap, would you forego bringing in that top UFA? Imagine we brought in a UFA Parayko, and then we were able to trade Pulock or Dobson for assets, like a young #2C or a stud prospect with UFA years left over.

We come out on top with more assets.

Does signing one of those guys hamstring us when filling out a roster.

You can’t just keep signing a team of high end players (unless you can get some of them to take discounts) if it means I have to start chucking the bottom 6 on my roster and replace them with fringe AHLers or pray one of my PTO’s has a great camp. There has to be a balance on your roster.

 

[SI90]

Jets sign Morrissey to an amazing deal. If we could get Pulock for that AAV and around 6-7 years that would be awesome.

 

[crasherino]

Jets sign Morrissey to an amazing deal. If we could get Pulock for that AAV and around 6-7 years that would be awesome.

That's exactly what I said in the other thread. You have to think that Morrissey is slightly higher rated than Pulock. I think the earlier we sign him the better. We should have done it last year but if we could get it done now before he gets more PP1 time, that would be beneficial for the team.

If we put the same deal in front of him that Morrissey got, does he sign it? He could make more next year but he could also suffer a catastrophic injury. I would love to have some cost certainty ahead of next off season. In my mind, I've got $20m or so to Barzal/Pulock/Toews. If we can get Barzal for anything under $10m, that's a win. And Toews? We'll see.

 

[Metnut]

That's exactly what I said in the other thread. You have to think that Morrissey is slightly higher rated than Pulock. I think the earlier we sign him the better. We should have done it last year but if we could get it done now before he gets more PP1 time, that would be beneficial for the team.

If we put the same deal in front of him that Morrissey got, does he sign it? He could make more next year but he could also suffer a catastrophic injury. I would love to have some cost certainty ahead of next off season. In my mind, I've got $20m or so to Barzal/Pulock/Toews. If we can get Barzal for anything under $10m, that's a win. And Toews? We'll see.

It would be smart to get Pulock locked up ASAP. Would require our GM to be proactive which he hasn't really shown much desire to be so far.

 

[FourRings]

I don't think you can turn down a player of Tavares' caliber. While he certainly didn't fill their biggest need, if you can get a guy like that for no assets, you can't say no. Especially when he comes at below market. Nylander was completely botched though - I agree there. And looking back, it would have been better to lock up Marner first and then give Matthews his monster deal. Marner's demands have increased solely to match Matthews deal. That's totally Monday Morning Quarterbacking - I get that, but that's what we have to work with here.

I disagree; while walking away from a player like Tavares is difficult, it's the prudent thing to do when you have players like Matthews and Marner (both of whom were due for big paydays the following summer) to lead the offense. Now the Leafs are most likely going to have over $33MM tied up in three players, all of which are FWDs. That's poor cap allocation no matter how you slice it. To me, the Tavares signing opened up their championship window a year early but shortened how long it'll be open for in the long term.

 

[SI90]

That's exactly what I said in the other thread. You have to think that Morrissey is slightly higher rated than Pulock. I think the earlier we sign him the better. We should have done it last year but if we could get it done now before he gets more PP1 time, that would be beneficial for the team.

If we put the same deal in front of him that Morrissey got, does he sign it? He could make more next year but he could also suffer a catastrophic injury. I would love to have some cost certainty ahead of next off season. In my mind, I've got $20m or so to Barzal/Pulock/Toews. If we can get Barzal for anything under $10m, that's a win. And Toews? We'll see.

Their careers are actually pretty similar. I don’t think Morrissey is better than Pulock. I have them about the same tier. I love Morrissey. That’s a heck of a deal and if we could get Pulock for similar that would be huge.

 

[SI90]

I disagree; while walking away from a player like Tavares is difficult, it's the prudent thing to do when you have players like Matthews and Marner (both of whom were due for big paydays the following summer) to lead the offense. Now the Leafs are most likely going to have over $33MM tied up in three players, all of which are FWDs. That's poor cap allocation no matter how you slice it. To me, the Tavares signing opened up their championship window a year early but shortened how long it'll be open for in the long term.

You never turn down a player in his prime like that. Especially when he doesn’t cost any assets. He also took less money. The leafs did the right thing by signing Pajama Boy. The mistake they made was not moving Nylander when he was a RFA. Nylander still has star potential and there’s teams that would line up for him. Dubas wanted to be the smartest guy in the room and swear he could keep the band together. Now it’s back firing because Marner broke out in a major way last year.

But back to Pajama Boy, if you have the chance to add a legit #1 center in his prime you do it.

 

[crasherino]

Their careers are actually pretty similar. I don’t think Morrissey is better than Pulock. I have them about the same tier. I love Morrissey. That’s a heck of a deal and if we could get Pulock for similar that would be huge.

I think they're roughly in the same tier as well. But if you went around the league, my guess is that most people would have Morrissey ahead. But regardless, the Islanders should have already been in discussions with Pulock. The evaluation year is over. You need to start being proactive and make moves just like WPG did here. His value is only going up. Especially as they rely on him more.

 

[boredmale]

I disagree; while walking away from a player like Tavares is difficult, it's the prudent thing to do when you have players like Matthews and Marner (both of whom were due for big paydays the following summer) to lead the offense. Now the Leafs are most likely going to have over $33MM tied up in three players, all of which are FWDs. That's poor cap allocation no matter how you slice it. To me, the Tavares signing opened up their championship window a year early but shortened how long it'll be open for in the long term.

My 2 cents is the Leaf's mistake was not Trading Nylander when he had value last year. If they traded him they might not have had to trade a first to get rid of Marleau this year for starters, probably got a decent defenseman in return so trading a first for Muzzin also wouldn't be as big a need last year

 

[FourRings]

You never turn down a player in his prime like that. Especially when he doesn’t cost any assets. He also took less money. The leafs did the right thing by signing Pajama Boy. The mistake they made was not moving Nylander when he was a RFA. Nylander still has star potential and there’s teams that would line up for him. Dubas wanted to be the smartest guy in the room and swear he could keep the band together. Now it’s back firing because Marner broke out in a major way last year.

But back to Pajama Boy, if you have the chance to add a legit #1 center in his prime you do it.

Eh, agree to disagree with the idea of signing JT. But you're 100% right; when they got Tavares, Nylander should've been shopped.

 

[Merrrlin]

Does signing one of those guys hamstring us when filling out a roster.

You can’t just keep signing a team of high end players (unless you can get some of them to take discounts) if it means I have to start chucking the bottom 6 on my roster and replace them with fringe AHLers or pray one of my PTO’s has a great camp. There has to be a balance on your roster.

The aspect I am point towards is that you don't just lose a player when you sign an expensive, top end UFA. If you must make trades (something which we haven't really seen since Chicago's ridiculous roster), you get assets back. Toronto has let a few good players go - Bozak, JVR, Gardiner, Hainsey. In my eyes, none of those are big losses, though, and Lou had a chance to ship a couple of them for picks/assets.

So if we had to trade Bailey and Pulock because we signed Panarin and Barzal needs a new deal, we would still get good prospect or cheap players in return. I would still rather have Panarin + assets, even if we had to dress a scrub on our 4th line.

Eh, agree to disagree with the idea of signing JT. But you're 100% right; when they got Tavares, Nylander should've been shopped.

Agreed. Steal Tavares, then trade Nylander for an ELC defenceman on whatever side they need. They have a glut of RD I think so grab a LD?

Does Nylander play mainly C or W?

I think they're roughly in the same tier as well. But if you went around the league, my guess is that most people would have Morrissey ahead. But regardless, the Islanders should have already been in discussions with Pulock. The evaluation year is over. You need to start being proactive and make moves just like WPG did here. His value is only going up. Especially as they rely on him more.

I would definitely have Morrissey on a higher tier. I would keep Pulock in a 1 for 1 deal, but only because I am bias.

 

[leeroggy]

Sometimes I think playing in FL (with no spirit at all) sucks the life/skill out of that team. They should be a perennial playoff team with Barkov, Trochek, Hubedeau, etc. We'll see what happens this year with Quenville but I wouldn't be surprised if that team makes a leap finally. Especially if BOB is healthy.

They'd be a playoff team IF they can stay healthy. They've had multiple seasons now of top players missing many games.

 

[PK Cronin]

Well....right now they turned Kadri into Barrie. Lets see what happens after this year as Barrie and Muzzin are FAs. At minimum, they had a window of 2 years (last year and this year) to go on a full force cup run. The jury is still out as to what will happen next year. More than likely, their fortunes will rest on more than one young, unproven Dman. Will they be getting their version of Devon Toews or their version of Matt Donovan?

I'd like nothing more than to see them bounced in the first round again (with the Islanders finishing higher - well....I'd like to see the Islanders win the Cup more, but...) but I'm not naive enough to think that the TMLs aren't good this year. They are. They've got a good top 4 (we'll call it 3.5 with Ceci) and a questionable bottom pairing and no depth. We'll see if that's good enough to win.

Kadri into Barrie to replace the guy they couldn't afford to keep because they Brought in Tavares. So they're missing a Kadri and have a similar defense for one year. I agree with the two year window, but I don't think they were ready yet. The problem with resting on the young unproven guys is that they have so many spots where they need them, the odds are against them being able to fill holes with their youngsters. Most of their youngsters are on the roster already.

They're absolutely a playoff team, so long as they stay healthy, but the fact they're so top heavy is why I think they'll ultimately lose again.

Their toughness is a real problem, I readily concede that. But Barrie for Gardiner is an even swap, I'd say. And I don't think Gardiner played in the playoffs, right? As far as being better than last year? They lost to the Bruins in 7 (after being up 3-2). That series could easily have gone either way. I don't know if they are better than last year, but they easily could perform better than they did.

TBH, I don't even know who their backup goalie is this year. Can't be worse than Sparks though, can it?

Edit to add: Losing Kadri wasn't just about salary cap. After all his nonsense, he had to go. Its on them though that he was the only player who played with any grit. Zach Hyman can too but he's out for a while.

(But **** you for making me defend the Leafs. I need to shower).

They could've won that series but now they're a similar team with less depth. They need all the cards to fall in their favor in order to have success. Kadri had to go for monetary reasons as well as his nonsense. The problem is that he was used to replace something they already had and didn't actually replace what he brought to the team.

If we had the option to sign Stamkos or Karlsson, or some other top line player as a UFA...but we knew it would impact signing some of our young talent and staying under the cap, would you forego bringing in that top UFA? Imagine we brought in a UFA Parayko, and then we were able to trade Pulock or Dobson for assets, like a young #2C or a stud prospect with UFA years left over.

We come out on top with more assets.

It depends. I certainly didn't want Karlsson when he was traded to the Sharks. The Leafs didn't trade their other young players for other assets, that's the criticism we're making. They kept them and dumped all their depth. Marner, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, are the big four followed by Johnsson and Kapanen. Who is after that? Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Moore, Petan, Shore, Agostino, Spezza, Aberg, Gauthier...who the heck are these players? That's 9 players who are nobodies and one who is looking for a rebound season.

They have 8 players who are going to be UFA's (5 RFA's too) at the end of the year too. The highest paid of the bunch is Ceci at $4.5 million. They're going to have to replace those players like Ceci, Muzzin, and Barrie, how the heck are they going to do that without spending more than they already are? They have very few guys left with enough value to bring in those types of players via trade and doing so would only make them thinner elsewhere.

There's still time and they could end up trading Marner or Nylander or someone else to clear room, but their options are very limited.

 

[Merrrlin]

Kadri into Barrie to replace the guy they couldn't afford to keep because they Brought in Tavares. So they're missing a Kadri and have a similar defense for one year. I agree with the two year window, but I don't think they were ready yet. The problem with resting on the young unproven guys is that they have so many spots where they need them, the odds are against them being able to fill holes with their youngsters. Most of their youngsters are on the roster already.

They're absolutely a playoff team, so long as they stay healthy, but the fact they're so top heavy is why I think they'll ultimately lose again.



They could've won that series but now they're a similar team with less depth. They need all the cards to fall in their favor in order to have success. Kadri had to go for monetary reasons as well as his nonsense. The problem is that he was used to replace something they already had and didn't actually replace what he brought to the team.



It depends. I certainly didn't want Karlsson when he was traded to the Sharks. The Leafs didn't trade their other young players for other assets, that's the criticism we're making. They kept them and dumped all their depth. Marner, Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, are the big four followed by Johnsson and Kapanen. Who is after that? Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Moore, Petan, Shore, Agostino, Spezza, Aberg, Gauthier...who the heck are these players? That's 9 players who are nobodies and one who is looking for a rebound season.

They have 8 players who are going to be UFA's (5 RFA's too) at the end of the year too. The highest paid of the bunch is Ceci at $4.5 million. They're going to have to replace those players like Ceci, Muzzin, and Barrie, how the heck are they going to do that without spending more than they already are? They have very few guys left with enough value to bring in those types of players via trade and doing so would only make them thinner elsewhere.

There's still time and they could end up trading Marner or Nylander or someone else to clear room, but their options are very limited.

Great post, well written. I don't necessarily agree with you, but you laid it out reasonably. I have this pit in my stomach that they are going to have a good year and I will have to avoid hockey news because of it.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I disagree; while walking away from a player like Tavares is difficult, it's the prudent thing to do when you have players like Matthews and Marner (both of whom were due for big paydays the following summer) to lead the offense. Now the Leafs are most likely going to have over $33MM tied up in three players, all of which are FWDs. That's poor cap allocation no matter how you slice it. To me, the Tavares signing opened up their championship window a year early but shortened how long it'll be open for in the long term.

Pajama boy is what he is. Poster SidCrosby and I had a conversation on him. He is a Kessel caliber player who is a nice support piece to a championship caliber roster. He is not a player that can be your best player and expect to win a cup. I think there are a lot of similarities to Phil and Pajamas. I have said it often. Flashy stats but not a player that can lead you to the promised land. We know that on the Island he never brought the Isles close to a cup. The fact the Isles got further without him last year speaks volumes of this. They may have missed his goals, but they didn't miss his min + long shifts. Team > Individual. Isles lucked out that pajamas was homesick. That contract will age badly. Mark my words. If the Isles signed him, we would be in a position of worrying how the heck do we sign Barzal, Pulock, and Toews next year. It was a blessing in disguise, that blessing has turned into cap hell for the Laffs. Glad he his gone. As the video says.

 

[SI]

I think Dubas is doing a really good job. He has had s couple of tremendous offseasons as a rookie GM. Tavares, Barrie, Kerfoot, Muzzin. Kapenan and Johnsson on good deals. Even the Nylander deal, while not handled the best, could end up being very good value in the long run. He has put the Leafs in a good spot to compete. Still time to get Marner through the door.

I agree -

Some of the arguments about losing Gardiner and Kadri (and Sparks by GOD!) is forced.

Crasherino made some good points earlier.

He was able to build a blueline and get almost everyone signed and has created space for Marner (and manipulated the cap to make things happen).

With all that said, it will be sweet again when they get bounced out in the 1st round

 

[SI]

Pajama boy is what he is. Poster SidCrosby and I had a conversation on him. He is a Kessel caliber player who is a nice support piece to a championship caliber roster. He is not a player that can be your best player and expect to win a cup. I think there are a lot of similarities to Phil and Pajamas. I have said it often. Flashy stats but not a player that can lead you to the promised land. We know that on the Island he never brought the Isles close to a cup. The fact the Isles got further without him last year speaks volumes of this. They may have missed his goals, but they didn't miss his min + long shifts. Team > Individual. Isles lucked out that pajamas was homesick. That contract will age badly. Mark my words. If the Isles signed him, we would be in a position of worrying how the heck do we sign Barzal, Pulock, and Toews next year. It was a blessing in disguise, that blessing has turned into cap hell for the Laffs. Glad he his gone. As the video says.

This all sounds like sour grapes.

I disagree with your comparison to Kessel. Very different players.
Tavares doesn’t have to be the Man in Toronto.

And I agree that Trading Nylander for D was their best course of action for a more balance lineup.

You know what though - who gives a shit!

Let’s move on and worry about our off season. October 2nd if Marner isn’t signed then We can laugh our ass off

 

[The Winter Soldier]

This all sounds like sour grapes.

I disagree with your comparison to Kessel. Very different players.
Tavares doesn’t have to be the Man in Toronto.

And I agree that Trading Nylander for D was their best course of action for a more balance lineup.

You know what though - who gives a ****!

Let’s move on and worry about our off season. October 2nd if Marner isn’t signed then We can laugh our ass off

I am going to leave that up to other Isles fans. Hey, most of you guys were following the Isles longer than I. I just hitched a ride when Barzal joined the team. Big fan of his since Seattle where I had him in my top 5 draft ranking.

I just understand the the feelings of Isles fans. And I agree it was a snake move how he left the Isles to die on the side of the road, by leading them on and not doing the right thing by letting them know earlier he was not coming back. It would have been nice if the Isles got a pick or player at the TDL. But Pajamas had his own ideas. I will certainly not object everytime he is booed at Nassau C.

BTW I am focused on the Isles, and things are looking good to me this year. It's a process, but I think if one of the young fwds jumps up this year we will be in good shape.

As for Marner, I am laughing already my friend.