Speculation: Offseason Thread #15: Thinking of a new title is Vesey difficult

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LeetchisGod

This is a bad hockey team.
May 21, 2009
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What upside? I think we just saw a season where everything fires on all cylinders for JT Miller. I think we have seen his upside.



You have to give value to get value.



Yes, why give McDonagh an actual partner for once in his career since Sauer.

All of Miller's production and play can be replaced by Hudler or Pirri. They'd also be cheaper than Miller.

Hudler is old and small. Pirri has a good shot and nothing else. Miller has size, speed, a good shot, playmaking abilities and plays physical. There is no reason to believe that he has peaked at 23. You are way off base here.
 

darko

Registered User
Feb 16, 2009
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What upside? I think we just saw a season where everything fires on all cylinders for JT Miller. I think we have seen his upside.
.

I doubt a 23 year old in first full season is done developing. But hey I've been wrong before.
 

silverfish

got perma'd
Jun 24, 2008
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I doubt a 23 year old in first full season is done developing. But hey I've been wrong before.

Same. I like being wrong. I learn a lot more when I'm wrong than when I'm right.

I've also never meant to postulate that I believe it's fact Miller won't produce at the same right he did last year. I've always said that this upcoming season is a telling year for Miller. It's telling because we'll find out if last year was who he is, or if it was an outlier. I just believe it was an outlier.

I'll be thrilled to be wrong, which may be hard for everyone here to believe :)
 

Ghost of jas

Unsatisfied
Feb 27, 2002
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I think fortunately for me, my biases stay based in a realm that's backed up by empirical evidence, so at the least I have that going for me. Though, maybe that's just my biases talking.

There are a million things said in this thread that the Rangers will never end up doing. I don't think it's fair that I take the heat on my views about Miller when no one else takes the heat about their views about the players they trade. I think it's extra unfair because most posters don't take the team and do the research or the analysis that I do when I actually say that I want to trade Miller. List fifty reasons why, with the actual understanding that you need to give value to get value.

Meanwhile, people are trading Staal to Dallas for Honka, or claiming that LA would be interested in Staal. LA, being a team built entirely off of controlled zone exits is going to trade for Marc Staal? Okay.

But hey, could just be my bias.

I'll end the Miller **** here now. But I gotta say, it riles me up when people talk about a dime a dozen player who just posted a bat**** insane outlier of a season like he's some untouchable force that's necessary to the Rangers' success.

And again I'll say here that I hope Miller continues to prove me wrong. Both for his life, for the success for the Rangers, and selfishly, for me to learn from my mistakes.

First of all, everyone here gets criticized in some form or another based upon some opinions they hold. You're not the first and you won't be the last. Again, I find most of what you post to be very informative, especially with regard to the misconceptions of Kreider and your eventual conclusions about Girardi. I admit I am no way as versed in the empirical data that you put forth as you are. But, I do feel that there are real world elements that do get lost in the data. (And I speak on this point as someone, who, due to my experience, gets to see real world results that don't coincide with the expected outcomes put forth by engineers.)
 

silverfish

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First of all, everyone here gets criticized in some form or another based upon some opinions they hold. You're not the first and you won't be the last. Again, I find most of what you post to be very informative, especially with regard to the misconceptions of Kreider and your eventual conclusions about Girardi. I admit I am no way as versed in the empirical data that you put forth as you are. But, I do feel that there are real world elements that do get lost in the data. (And I speak on this point as someone, who, due to my experience, gets to see real world results that don't coincide with the expected outcomes put forth by engineers.)

Yeah, but I get it from both sides. My Miller 'hate' and the way I go about trying to prove why I 'hate' Miller because it's "advanced stats" based. It gets frustrating when you bring objective data to an argument where the other person's viewpoints are entirely subjective based.

I've learned, recently, that "phenomena" and I've since begun less in trying to convince other people to change their viewpoints, and rather continue to try and explain why I believe mine are they way are. It hasn't helped the conversation.

I think you're right. Probably just best for me in the future to just not jump into the conversation when Miller is brought up.
 

NickyFotiu

NYR 2024 Cup Champs!
Sep 29, 2011
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Best thing I read from yesterdays announcement. When Gorton was asked why the NY Rangers part of his answer was, "We’re a team, we try to win."

I never like the try to throw seasons mentality.
 

Vinny DeAngelo

Jimmy Easy to defend
Mar 17, 2014
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Yeah, but I get it from both sides. My Miller 'hate' and the way I go about trying to prove why I 'hate' Miller because it's "advanced stats" based. It gets frustrating when you bring objective data to an argument where the other person's viewpoints are entirely subjective based.

I've learned, recently, that "phenomena" and I've since begun less in trying to convince other people to change their viewpoints, and rather continue to try and explain why I believe mine are they way are. It hasn't helped the conversation.

I think you're right. Probably just best for me in the future to just not jump into the conversation when Miller is brought up.

No stand strong silverfish!!! I'm with you I think Miller gets overrated on these boards especially when compared to Kevin Hayes. If we aren't there to check the overraters then the board is boring and pointless... Then people who aren't as informed read the forum and say wow Miller must be a god then everyone feels disappointed because he's overhyped.. We don't have a fun job or a enjoyable job on this forum but it's necessary to make the conversation realistic
 

Ghost of jas

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Feb 27, 2002
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Yeah, but I get it from both sides. My Miller 'hate' and the way I go about trying to prove why I 'hate' Miller because it's "advanced stats" based. It gets frustrating when you bring objective data to an argument where the other person's viewpoints are entirely subjective based.

I've learned, recently, that "phenomena" and I've since begun less in trying to convince other people to change their viewpoints, and rather continue to try and explain why I believe mine are they way are. It hasn't helped the conversation.

I think you're right. Probably just best for me in the future to just not jump into the conversation when Miller is brought up.

Just control your "trade Miller" reflex. :D Again, I like learning the game from this angle, and I think that all players should be looked at with a critical eye. If the Rangers front office had properly assessed Staal, Girardi, Stralman and Yandle, we wouldn't be in the current mess on D that we now face. And, I think it's important to note that Miller's year was a potential outlier. Puts the arguments in the "Miller vs. Kreider" discussion into better context.
 

frozenrubber

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Nov 27, 2005
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The next person to be traded should be Tanner Glass. There's no way he makes the team with the logjam of LWs (Kreider, Miller, Vesey, Grabner, maybe MZA, maybe Nash, maybe Butcher), among others who could play on the LW, and that's not counting prospects like Hrivik who could realistically beat him out.

Glass is making only $1 this year so for a team with an internal cap that doesn't care about the NHL cap, it can look attractive to a team looking for physicality on the 4th line. Trade him for a minor leaguer on a one-way contract making $800-900, so the difference in salary is marginal, and if they send down to the AHL a guy on a two-way contract so Glass plays, that team actually saves money.

Rangers also have contract room. They can easily do the same as the above but take on 2 sub-1M players and send them to the AHL. Tanner Glass is a good teammate and even is worth it for an AHL team out there.

Hartford could also use a AAAA player or two.
 

Brooklyn Rangers Fan

Change is good.
Aug 23, 2005
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Yeah, but I get it from both sides. My Miller 'hate' and the way I go about trying to prove why I 'hate' Miller because it's "advanced stats" based. It gets frustrating when you bring objective data to an argument where the other person's viewpoints are entirely subjective based.

I've learned, recently, that "phenomena" and I've since begun less in trying to convince other people to change their viewpoints, and rather continue to try and explain why I believe mine are they way are. It hasn't helped the conversation.

I think you're right. Probably just best for me in the future to just not jump into the conversation when Miller is brought up.

Okay, SF, if you genuinely would like to receive less antagonism (and are genuinely confused as to why you get it in the first place), let me offer a few more/more detailed observations as to why I think you "get it" from other posters when you make these arguments. Please take them in the spirit of intending to be helpful, because I value you as a poster and do, in fact, intend to be helpful:

1) In making your proposals, you seem obsessed with dumping/acquiring specific players as opposed to looking at the team as a whole and considering any deal, involving any player, that might benefit the organization. It comes off as "what about Miller for this, what about Miller for that, what about Miller for a 6th rounder, oh for the love of God can we PLEASE just get rid of Miller?"

Personally, I would have NO problem trading Miller for the right return. But I ALSO wouldn't have a problem trading Kreider or anyone else on the team for the right return (which in Kreider's case would be higher, BTW). Were you to suggest ideas outside of dumping Miller, signing Nakladal and "firing Girardi to the moon" over and over again, I think you'd be surprised how much less "hate" you receive - INCLUDING as regards to your suggestions for those three players.

2) Apologies in advance for being harsh, but... your points on advanced stats are dogmatic to the point of being alienating. Now, don't get me wrong. I absolutely appreciate the info you've shared - I've learned from it, and continue to read your posts with interest, because they've added to how I analyze players, and the game as a whole. But you, conversely, come off as dismissive, and sometimes (despite the clever memes) :) disrespectful of those who don't share your views 100%. The debates you have frequently go:

"This guy is good/bad because of advanced stat X."
"Well have you considered traditional stat A or non-statistical reason 1?"
"Yeah, no, stat X says he's good/bad. Period."
(And then you frequently add humor, which I suspect is meant to deescalate, but in context can actually seem to end your point with "but I guess you're just not smart enough to see that.")

That mode of "debate" is off-putting to the point of being inflammatory, even when just sitting on the sidelines and reading it.

3) A related, but different point: you seem to believe that advanced stats are the be-all, end-all without giving any credence to other forms of analysis, the underlying reasons why those stats may be what they are, or importantly, the fact that eventually they need to translate into traditional stats for a team to win. Nakladal is a great example. He's 28, has only played 27 NHL games. During that span, his "box stats" (a term which, BTW, I'm increasingly coming to recognize as a coded sneer) were lousy - and frankly, they weren't all that great at the AHL level either.

Would I be adverse to taking a flyer on the player if he were willing to take a Clendenning-like contract? Absolutely not! In fact, your arguments on the subject have me somewhat intrigued. :) But to suggest a guy who couldn't crack a North American squad for the first 27 years of his life, has only had a cup of coffee with a big club, during which time he didn't have much "traditional" impact, who hasn't yet been signed by anyone (including his own old club) is some kind of savior... I'm sorry, it just comes off on choosing to die on the analytics hill, rather than taking into account the fact that maybe, just MAYBE, he's not as good as you think he is.

I mean, to take the point to the extreme, if we were to ice a squad filled with your oft-mentioned favorites who put up great supporting numbers but don't ever actually get on the score sheet, how would we win games? Would every game be 1-0? Or would they suddenly, magically, for the first time after years of not scoring, see their "box stats" shoot up?

4) You talk a lot (recently in particular) about learning from when you are wrong. I really like this point - and if you actually backed it up, :) I think it would go a long way towards earning you some slack. Indeed, it'd be the fastest, easiest way to make you seem less dogmatic. Yet, for all that you say this about yourself, I don't think I've seen any evidence of it to date. So, while on its face, the statement seems to be generous and open-minded, the subtext communicated is actually "I'm never wrong" (at least not on HFNYR).

Personally, just off the top of my head I was wrong about Enver Lisin, Evgeny Grachev, and Mats Zuccarello. Can you throw out some similar examples? (And before you do: I trust you see that if you name guys that fit in the context of "but that was before I discovered advanced stats", it won't help your cause, right...?) :)

Hope that was helpful - again, that's how it was meant!
 
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Mikos87

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Mar 19, 2002
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What about JT Miller (just poking fun at you "don't trade Miller" peeps. Haha) and Dylan McIlrath for Jacob Trouba or Cody Ceci?

I could live with that for Trouba, but not Ceci.

I don't value Ceci that high, to me he's on par with Scandella. Nice players, but definitely not top end players.

Trouba IMO is a top end player. The guys is in many ways a modern Shea Weber. Perhaps giving up some of the physicality and brute power for some more skating and pop gun offense.

Trouba can and should be a 15 G and 20 A kind of defenseman that physically dominates the other team's top line.

Shows you how productive Shea Weber is and has been for a long time.

Still though, a trade for Trouba would be pricey. Could definitely see McIlrath go the other way as he's from Winnepeg and perhaps a fan favorite hometown boy can ease some of the fan pressure in a Trouba trade. And this is considering McIlrath as a throw-in.

Ultimately I think the Rangers end up moving a pair like Lindberg/Fast for a RHD in a package deal for a younger player that can really play.
 

Kovalev27

BEST IN THE WORLD
Jun 22, 2004
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Shattenkirk is the guy that fits this core. The guy that has the history playing with 27 already the guy that wants to be here.

He's the perfect fit and should be the main target.
 
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