Speculation: Offseason Talk VI

[SoftDumpInTheCorner]

I think the Sharks will begin the season with the same group of players they ended it with. Of course minus Hannan and Boyle. The captains will be different and the Sharks will be in a wait a see mode. They will wait until their position at the trade deadline to make any move on Thornton or Marleau. If nobody is moved by the deadline and they have another poor showing at the playoffs or even miss the playoffs, Joe and Patty will be asked to be shipped before the draft.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think the Sharks will begin the season with the same group of players they ended it with. Of course minus Hannan and Boyle. The captains will be different and the Sharks will be in a wait a see mode. They will wait until their position at the trade deadline to make any move on Thornton or Marleau. If nobody is moved by the deadline and they have another poor showing at the playoffs or even miss the playoffs, Joe and Patty will be asked to be shipped before the draft.

I have a hard time believing after all the things done and the things DW has said regarding all of this that all he does is replace Boyle, Hannan, and Havlat and go with the rest of the group. I don't think they need to wait and see another season regarding a playoff performance to know what they're going to get. And they had two options...load it up or turn it over and it sounds like they're doing the latter.

 

[SoftDumpInTheCorner]

I have a hard time believing after all the things done and the things DW has said regarding all of this that all he does is replace Boyle, Hannan, and Havlat and go with the rest of the group. I don't think they need to wait and see another season regarding a playoff performance to know what they're going to get. And they had two options...load it up or turn it over and it sounds like they're doing the latter.

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=454175

 

[SoftDumpInTheCorner]

I have a hard time believing after all the things done and the things DW has said regarding all of this that all he does is replace Boyle, Hannan, and Havlat and go with the rest of the group. I don't think they need to wait and see another season regarding a playoff performance to know what they're going to get. And they had two options...load it up or turn it over and it sounds like they're doing the latter.

I agree about waiting and seeing but ultimately Marleau and Thornton hold all the cards in the deck. Plus the availability of Spezza and Kesler are not good for any return on Thornton or Marleau.

 

[HipCzech]

I think the Sharks will begin the season with the same group of players they ended it with. Of course minus Hannan and Boyle. The captains will be different and the Sharks will be in a wait a see mode. They will wait until their position at the trade deadline to make any move on Thornton or Marleau. If nobody is moved by the deadline and they have another poor showing at the playoffs or even miss the playoffs, Joe and Patty will be asked to be shipped before the draft.

I seriously doubt it. What would be the point? DW has already said he won't trade futures anymore to improve the team and he proved it by not fixing the defense this year. You keep JT and PM and we'll end up in the playoffs again, good enough to get some people's hopes up, but not good enough to make it out of the west. Plus add in the low draft position.

One step backward, to eventually take two steps forward. I think at least one of them will be gone this summer. Why risk injury/skill decline/mental issues (because he wants them gone) if you can avoid it?

 

[LadyStanley]

Despite all my misgivings about Havlat's play or that of any other buyout candidate, almost all buyout players manage to compensate for the loss of salary which comes with the buyout. Most even top the salary that they would have received with subsequent contracts. The guy who stands out for not quite getting there is Redden. Even Gomez managed.

Curtis Brown too.

 

[FeedingFrenzy]

I agree about waiting and seeing but ultimately Marleau and Thornton hold all the cards in the deck. Plus the availability of Spezza and Kesler are not good for any return on Thornton or Marleau.

Flawed logic.. Should Speeza/Kesler get traded b4, could dictate the return the Sharks get for Patty/JT.


Still don't think Patty is moved, his speed game is what the Sharks need, JT OTH must be moved to change the culture.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Flawed logic.. Should Speeza/Kesler get traded b4, could dictate the return the Sharks get for Patty/JT.


Still don't think Patty is moved, his speed game is what the Sharks need, JT OTH must be moved to change the culture.

It would make the return worse because those teams wouldn't want Marleau/Thornton anymore

 

[hockeyball]

I think the Sharks will begin the season with the same group of players they ended it with. Of course minus Hannan and Boyle. The captains will be different and the Sharks will be in a wait a see mode. They will wait until their position at the trade deadline to make any move on Thornton or Marleau. If nobody is moved by the deadline and they have another poor showing at the playoffs or even miss the playoffs, Joe and Patty will be asked to be shipped before the draft.

I personally would have just about zero interest in watching that sure debacle. I love hockey, but my time is precious and that would be a massive waste of time. There is NO way that team is better than LA, not a chance. We got worse, LA stayed the same (or gets better). We couldn't have a more clear cut case of 'not good enough', barring some absolutely absurd amount of luck which is not something you bet your business on.

 

[sweHockeypunk21]

Before I propose this, I know that Doug Wilson has already stated he is not trading our first round pick.

With that said, if we could package a first, Wingles and Demers, we could fetch a pretty return. All three players have skill sets that are hard to replace, but I have a top defensman in mind. If that package can fetch us a top left sided PMD with some youth, we have an enviable top-6 and top-4 to build around.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl

Top-D-Burns
Vlasic-Braun

Players that I would be wiling to give a package like that include Letang, Weber, Hedman, Giordano, McDonough, Shattenkirk, Ekman Larsson.

Better yet, we can sign Niskanen.

If we can get some more depth to complement this, I can see a cup in San Jose.

 

[AgentCooper]

Before I propose this, I know that Doug Wilson has already stated he is not trading our first round pick.

With that said, if we could package a first, Wingles and Demers, we could fetch a pretty return. All three players have skill sets that are hard to replace, but I have a top defensman in mind. If that package can fetch us a top left sided PMD with some youth, we have an enviable top-6 and top-4 to build around.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl

Top-D-Burns
Vlasic-Braun

Players that I would be wiling to give a package like that include Letang, Weber, Hedman, Giordano, McDonough, Shattenkirk, Ekman Larsson.

Better yet, we can sign Niskanen.

If we can get some more depth to complement this, I can see a cup in San Jose.

That package would not get a single one of those players.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Before I propose this, I know that Doug Wilson has already stated he is not trading our first round pick.

With that said, if we could package a first, Wingles and Demers, we could fetch a pretty return. All three players have skill sets that are hard to replace, but I have a top defensman in mind. If that package can fetch us a top left sided PMD with some youth, we have an enviable top-6 and top-4 to build around.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl

Top-D-Burns
Vlasic-Braun

Players that I would be wiling to give a package like that include Letang, Weber, Hedman, Giordano, McDonough, Shattenkirk, Ekman Larsson.

Better yet, we can sign Niskanen.

If we can get some more depth to complement this, I can see a cup in San Jose.

Not gonna happen for any of those players. Maybe Demers & Wingels for Kulikov but that'd be too much.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Before I propose this, I know that Doug Wilson has already stated he is not trading our first round pick.

With that said, if we could package a first, Wingles and Demers, we could fetch a pretty return. All three players have skill sets that are hard to replace, but I have a top defensman in mind. If that package can fetch us a top left sided PMD with some youth, we have an enviable top-6 and top-4 to build around.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl

Top-D-Burns
Vlasic-Braun

Players that I would be wiling to give a package like that include Letang, Weber, Hedman, Giordano, McDonough, Shattenkirk, Ekman Larsson.

Better yet, we can sign Niskanen.

If we can get some more depth to complement this, I can see a cup in San Jose.

I really don't memorize hockey handedness, but I'm pretty sure those two are righties.

And that package wouldn't get one of those players. And knowing from DW's history with giving out contracts, the Sharks won't come close to getting Niskanen.

 

[sweHockeypunk21]

Roman Josi would be a good fit too.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Roman Josi would be a good fit too.

I agree, but Wingels + Demers + a 1st doesn't get Josi, either. Josi would probably cost Pavelski.

 

[Gilligans Island]

Roman Josi would be a good fit too.

Yes he would but not with that package.

You're on the trade boards, too. You see the Preds fans all saying they need a top 6 fwd - ideally, C. None of those assets are that type of player... And with Weber and Jones, last thing they need is another RD in Demers.

For Josi, probably either Pavelski (what we want to give) or Couture (what Preds fans want).

 

[hockeyball]

Before I propose this, I know that Doug Wilson has already stated he is not trading our first round pick.

With that said, if we could package a first, Wingles and Demers, we could fetch a pretty return. All three players have skill sets that are hard to replace, but I have a top defensman in mind. If that package can fetch us a top left sided PMD with some youth, we have an enviable top-6 and top-4 to build around.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Pavelski-Thornton-Hertl

Top-D-Burns
Vlasic-Braun

Players that I would be wiling to give a package like that include Letang, Weber, Hedman, Giordano, McDonough, Shattenkirk, Ekman Larsson.

Better yet, we can sign Niskanen.

If we can get some more depth to complement this, I can see a cup in San Jose.

Again, we simply do not have the available assets to improve this team. Think of it like this, our players our worth a certain value each, that value of each players totals into some total value. In order to make a player for player trade you have to subtract from that total value in order make a trade, unless you trade non-roster assets (picks, prospects).

So let's say we trade a player that is worth a 6 out of a possible 10 points. We can expect to get back in return something between a 5-7 (7 if we get lucky, 5 if we dont). On the larger scale we can expect to get back the same average value in player as we send out. So a 6 returns a 6. Perhaps that player is a better fit, or fills a needed a hole, but you inevitably create a hole somewhere when you move a player of value 6 from one roster spot to another, so it mostly evens out.

The way that you supplement that is you trade a 6 + a valuable non-roster asset (pick or prospect) in order to return a superior player. So a 6 + a 1st becomes a 7 or 8 value player. That's why teams are said to be 'trading futures to win now'. That's exactly what you are doing, you are trading the perceived value of player some years form now for the value of a player now.

Doug Wilson has ruled out completely trading ANY non-roster assets of value. He's ruled out trading any 1sts, Mueller, and Nieto/Mueller (who are technically roster assets). That leaves our best available non-roster assets as 2nd's, or guys like Tierney (a 3rd tier prospect).

It doesn't matter WHO you trade on the roster, the net total stays aproximately the same and that net total is already at a deficit from last season since losing Boyle and Havlat (and probably Stuart, Hannan, Burish). I don't want to hear the 'those guys were negative value', that's a falicy. They had value, maybe not as much as others, but they still count as 2's and 3's and Boyle is still a 5 or better. Those numbers have to be replaced, and we are not likely to replace them internally. So not only are you trying to trade roster assets for superior roster assets to improve, you have to make up a deficit first. Sure you could sign some free agents, but we are historically bad at that and it even if we are able to replace all of those lost player values, we still are gambling that we can turn some 6's into 7's and 8's, and none of them turn out to be 6's turned into 5's.

I'm not trying to be depressing here, but this is simply how it is. The Sharks are unwilling to trade futures, that is the most obvious sign of 'rebuild' an org can give because it essentially means "We don't plan to improve". So either they plan to spend another year in limbo, or they plan to get something out of that year by rebuilding. I think the latter is both the smarter move, and the move Wilson has indicated very clearly.

 

[DystopianTierney]

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_cullen/?id=454175

They were the league's third-best possession team and that isn't a team that should be blown up just because the Western Conference Murderer's Row tripped them up once again.

It's great that the Sharks manage to attempt more shots than their opponent, and often get more on target, but a possession stat driven by shots doesn't give an accurate account of a teams control of the puck/ice.

FF% (Fenwick for percentage) - 3rd
SF% (Shots for percentage) - 3rd
CF% (Corsi for percentage) - 5th

The Sharks do a great job on generating chances in the right direction and their shooting based possession stats look very dangerous.

But..... despite dominating possession....

The Sharks (NHL's 2nd best faceoff team) have a hard time establishing faceoffs in the offensive zone. http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/04/team-zone-starts/

And have a hard time drawing icings, while having one of the worst total icings taken. http://blog.extraskater.com/2014/04/team-icing-stats/

Crazy stats for a team who is "the league's third-best possession team". I posted those stats a few days ago, but they are worth reposting.

The zone starts are the most disturbing. Imo, it really shows a failure to apply a solid forecheck and hem a team in. It's really inexcusable be ranked #2 in FO%, Top 5 in shooting/possession, and not be able to take advantage with OZ starts. Maybe the system needs to focus on more quality than quantity, and applying more pressure to sustain OZ time? A little more strategy than an all out barrage.....

The icings can go two ways, but it's still troubling. The Sharks find it difficult to not only get a goalie freeze for an OZ start, but also aren't drawing icings for OZ starts. Again, another damning hit against the Sharks ability to apply OZ pressure and hem teams in. Causing teams to bend with firepower, but not advancing with enough pressure to make them break.

Then you have the icings taken.... Maybe the Sharks feel comfortable sending it down ice as the #2 FO team? It would still be stupid to use that strategy to gain rest in the DZ, but not use it to break teams in the OZ. However, it probably does account for taking so many icings over the course of a season, but it doesn't account for all of them. With the possession #'s the Sharks have it is very worrying to see them taking such a high amount of icings. Starting in the DZ isn't the best way to take advantage of dominating possession, and what does it say for your possession game if you are the team taking the majority of icings? If you are dominating possession then you shouldn't be the team needing to repeatedly relieve pressure.

Sure looks like the Sharks strategy of outshooting teams is heavily inflating their "possession" reputation.

 

[SactoShark]

Most icings taken = Bad D. Can't move puck.

That may shock the **** out of you guys.

 

[Coily]

Scott Cullen knows. Hope Wilson listens.

He doesn't know about Stalock though.

 

[DystopianTierney]

Most icings taken = Bad D. Can't move puck.

That may shock the **** out of you guys.

It's definitely a part of it..... but it's not that black & white.

There were teams with much worse D. Why weren't they icing it all year at a high rate? Why weren't those teams icing the puck against the Sharks monster possession?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Assuming the Rangers buyout Richards and they are interested in Jumbo, what kind of a return, realistically, can we expect?

 

[Coily]

Assuming the Rangers buyout Richards and they are interested in Jumbo, what kind of a return, realistically, can we expect?

Roster player, 1st rounder, prospect is what I would expect.

 

[AgentCooper]

Assuming the Rangers buyout Richards and they are interested in Jumbo, what kind of a return, realistically, can we expect?

Something like Hagelin and 28th overall? Maybe more. DW is an excellent trader.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Something like Hagelin and 28th overall? Maybe more. DW is an excellent trader.

They don't have their first. Tampa has it.

Edit: I think they have the Rangers' 2015 first as well.