Very reasonable. But I think if/when Thornton goes, Marleau will also go. Might as well send Pavelski off to get the trades going as well.
Maybe 2 years of totally stinking for a rebuild and then coming back is what I prefer.
I think it will be a half done job and the Sharks still barely make the playoffs next year.
I think that the ownership group is struggling with the idea of not making the playoffs for a season or two from a financial standpoint. They keep reporting losses even when we do sell out every game and make the playoffs. That's why I'm not sure a full tank is in the cards.
Nemo will not get anything close to a 1st. Not happening. But overall, I agree with your analysis for the most part. I would love to think Couture could be a Toews someday, but I don't think he'll ever reach that potential. He may, but its not likely. I have yet to see Couture dominate the way Toews can. That said, taking over the OFFICIAL #1 does give him the chance to grow which I agree is key to his development. I wouldn't be surprised if he wants JT gone more than anyone, for selfish reasons that anyone could understand. For Hertl, man the sky is the limit. I hope he gains some strength in the off-season and continues to progress in this game. He has completely surprised me this season, as I was one to advocate sending him to Worcester to develop confidence and what not. He proved me wrong for sure.
Either way, I hope if Patty/JT are moved they go on to win the cup. It would pain me to see them in a Jets or Leafs jersey for the end of their career.
I agree about Nemo. With the current goalie market of free agents, the best we would get in return is a 2nd or a solid prospect. Although, I think his cap hit/remaining contract and resume is a plus over the Millers, Hillers, etc.
And I too would wish the best for Thornton and Marleau if/when they're moved.
I disagree with your optimistic projection for Couture and the team. Look at Couture's agemates around the league and look who has arrived on scene since. There was a reason he was left off Team Canada and he would have been left off even without the injury.
Toews is a better skater and player, beyond Couture's reach.
Tavares' offense is lightyears beyond Couture.
Stamkos, bigger, faster, better.
Duchene and MacKinnon, the young challengers who can skate circles around Couture.
Skinner, faster (and probably about an even comparison).
Johansen, faster and took his team by storm. CBJ didn't roll out the red carpet, he has earned his minutes.
Others should note that with the exception of Tavares, all are better skaters. Keep this in mind when trying to sell Couture as an above average skater. The same applies to Hertl. Some of the teams with these players will improve and without a major add or two up front, the Sharks will not keep up with them. There are other lesser youngsters (RNH, Monahan, Horvat, Henrique, etc.) that I haven't mentioned who will try to nip at Couture's heels from behind. If they grow, the Sharks will be in a world of hurt relying on Couture or even Hertl as a #1C. It would be in the Sharks interest to find a way to acquire a youngster to supplant Couture as a #1C of the future.
I understand where you're coming from and I agree with you to an extent. Most of the players you listed where drafted in the top 3 of their draft years and given the keys to the kingdom from the beginning. I would also suggest looking at Logan and Toews' stats. They're actually comparable players, except in ice-time and having a team built around one and not the other. I personally believe that Logan would be a fantastic #2 Center with the hope that Hertl develops like Kopitar into a #1 Center.
And to comment on your note about the Olympics team, I know for a fact that Logan made the team but was left off due to his injury. I'm very close to someone in that situation, but Team Canada didn't want to go through the formality.
TMV
The problem is that there are no superstars in that core. It's a fantastic complimentary core if you added a superstar, either up front or on the back. Couture, Hertl, and Nieto are all top-6 forwards, and Couture and Hertl in a couple years will be top-line forwards. Wingels and Demers are solid complimentary pieces (middle-6 forward/middle pair defenseman). Vlasic and Braun are a perfect #2 and #3.
The only way to get superstars is the draft. You can't count on the next iteration of the Joe Thornton trade.
Jux, I understand where you're coming from and agree with you. I used to believe in the power of superstar players but with teams like Boston and STL, I don't know if that's the only way to go. I would love to end up with a Crosby, Malkin, Ovi, Stammer, Kane, etc but I believe it's a crap shoot. If we develop a more balance talent pool, I think it can be just as effective. Look at the Capitals, Islanders and Lightning. These teams have incredible superstars but can't build a team around them. With the 2 Stanley Cup teams this year, the Kings have DD who is a star (when he wants to be), Kopitar, who is an absolute stud but not quite a "star" IMO and Quick, who is a top 3 goalie when he's on. They have amazing role players; Carter, Gabby, Williams, Brown, Richards, etc. The Rags have Lundqvist who's a star and a bunch of former stars with St. Louis, Nash and Richards. Plus a solid D and role players. I think it can work both ways.
I also agree with you that we can't expect another Thornton trade to fill that "star" role.
Which is why the focus needs to be on skating and talent over size and character. Another reason to solidify the blue line from top to bottom and not a couple good players and filler the rest of the way. If we're going to end up like the St. Louis Blues up front in terms of a talent ceiling, we need to be rock solid in every aspect of the game from the top of the lineup to the bottom of it including goaltending to have a shot.
But the only way for this team to get that superstar in the draft is to tank. There is no way that this team gets a bona fide superstar and not a Couture/Hertl/Marleau type complementary piece by picking between 6-14. Those guys that get picked at that level could be with the right development but it is unlikely they would get it here.
You're right, PF. We need to focus on drafting and developing players with skill and speed. I also agree that we might end up more like the Blues in the talent department, so we need to shore up every aspect of the team and put players on the ice that fully buy into the system.
I don't think we would tank even with trading the Joes and maybe Marleau. We would still have the same amount of talent as Dallas, Columbus and Arizona, making us a playoff bubble team for the next few seasons.