Speculation: Offseason Talk V

Status
Not open for further replies.

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,474
13,912
Folsom
No, because you can use the word queen without it being an insult. Such as the Queen of England.

Dick is also not bleeped out as it is a name….others too….but that example is enough :)

One thing that has intrigued me. Why can I say ass but not the plural of ass? lol
 

TealManV

A man has said
Oct 12, 2011
706
25
California
I see the offensive potential there for Hertl, but I don't see the defensive potential. I don't think Hertl is a liability defensively and I think he can become above average defensively a la Thornton, but Kopitar is for my money the best defensive forward in the league, and Hertl won't be that. I see 70 point offensive potential and above average defensive play. That would potentially make him a good 1st liner. But it wouldn't make him a superstar.

Of course, we all see different things. That's just my opinion.

I think your vision is more accurate than mine, especially in regards to the defensive aspects. I'm just trying to remain optimistic in regards to Hertl since we don't have many young guys to be excited about.
 

zombie kopitar

custom title
Jul 3, 2009
6,075
957
Best Coast
Hertl can develop defensively, but it will not be instant. He has been brought up being an explosive offensive player in Euro style systems. But he has the iq to develop that side of his game. I think he can get to Couture's level of defensive game, and I think he can score at Kopitar's level, probably higher. So we'll see, but I think he needs to move over to C fully

I countered a rumored proposal with Jumbo and Demers for Leddy and Sharp.

I would love that trade actually, Sharp takes Hertl's top 6 LW spot and Hertl moves into top 9 C.

Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Sharp-Hertl- UFA(Iginla,Alfie,Vrbata)
Torres-Pavelski-Wingels
Sheppard-Desi-Brown/Burish

Vlasic-Burns
Leddy-Braun
Mueller/Irwin-Stuart
 

OrrNumber4

Registered User
Jul 25, 2002
15,909
5,174
I see the offensive potential there for Hertl, but I don't see the defensive potential. I don't think Hertl is a liability defensively and I think he can become above average defensively a la Thornton, but Kopitar is for my money the best defensive forward in the league, and Hertl won't be that. I see 70 point offensive potential and above average defensive play. That would potentially make him a good 1st liner. But it wouldn't make him a superstar.

Of course, we all see different things. That's just my opinion.

Kopitar did not come into the league as a 3-zone forward. The Toews and Coutures of the world are rare.

Hertl can learn, just as Kopitar did.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,423
Fremont, CA
If Hertl can get on whatever mix of coaching, off-season training, and "nutrition" (shouldn't be too hard to read between the lines on this one) that couture got on last year, he will easily be a #1C and better than Couture. He is the future of this team. He is never going to be Joe Thornton level in terms of offensive ability or Kopitar in terms of defensive ability but I think he can be a legitimate top tier 1C as soon as 2015-2016. He scored at an elite rate at ES this year without playing a lot of minutes. I really want to see him at center for the sake of his development, plus that is his natural position and fits his style of play a lot better.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,423
Fremont, CA
Marleau learned the defensive game, too. It can be done. Too early to call it on Hertl.

I don't think Hertl will ever be the elite skater that Marleau is and therefore I don't think he will ever become the defensive beast that Patty is. Plus, Sutter was Marleau's coach at the time. However, I do believe Hertl has the work ethic to become a fantastic defensive forward. Just not the skating ability to be elite in that regard.
 

Juxtaposer

Outro: Divina Comedia
Dec 21, 2009
47,888
17,259
Bay Area
Kopitar did not come into the league as a 3-zone forward. The Toews and Coutures of the world are rare.

Hertl can learn, just as Kopitar did.

Marleau learned the defensive game, too. It can be done. Too early to call it on Hertl.

I'm not ruling it out, but I just don't see it. That's just an opinion and I hope Hertl proves me wrong and becomes the best player in the world.
 

Hatrick Marleau

Just Win The Game
May 16, 2012
4,605
211
I don't think Hertl will ever be the elite skater that Marleau is and therefore I don't think he will ever become the defensive beast that Patty is. Plus, Sutter was Marleau's coach at the time. However, I do believe Hertl has the work ethic to become a fantastic defensive forward. Just not the skating ability to be elite in that regard.

Kopitar isn't an elite skater but he is one of the best if not the best defensive forwards in the league. It isn't about speed. It is about positioning, stick work, and hockey IQ.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,423
Fremont, CA
Kopitar isn't an elite skater but he is one of the best if not the best defensive forwards in the league. It isn't about speed. It is about positioning, stick work, and hockey IQ.

Kopitar might be a little faster than Hertl will ever be, plus he was still a better TWF at 20 than Hertl is
 

TealManV

A man has said
Oct 12, 2011
706
25
California
It's hard to compare Hertl and Kopitar as rookies due to Hertl's shortened season and the talent levels on the Sharks this year and LA in Kopitar's rookie season.

Hertl was on track for how many points?
 

Timo Time

73-9
Feb 21, 2012
11,785
467
San Jose, CA
Thanks, HMP. I was thinking it was higher than that. Must've been his lackluster line mates :sarcasm:

Was also on pace for 33 goals.

Which is about the player I see Hertl as, a 30-20 or 30-30 player. If he can exceed that in his development at centering his own line that would be a plus. I'd also expect his assists per game to increase if he was moved to center.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,423
Fremont, CA
Hertl scored at an ES rate which would be 16th in the NHL, tied with claude Giroux. Only player on our team who was more productive at ES was Thornton. I really don't think it's fair to use PPP as an indicator if Hertl's productivity, as he was playing on a 2nd pp unit which was a complete mess and played very little PP time.

Kopitar, in his rookie year, scored 30 ESP in 72 games (34 pro rated). Not a huge difference until you take into account that that was 2006-2007, and Kopitar was not even top-100 in the NHL in ESP. His pace would have him at 89th in the NHL.

I do think that Hertl can match Kopitar's offensive production (maybe not 80 points, but that's because 80 point players are a lot more rare right now)

Slightly OT but where can I find WOWYs?

Nvm, found them. Interesting to see that Couture's went down by over 10% when not with Marleau.
 
Last edited:

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,423
Fremont, CA
For those who expect Couture and Pavelski to seamlessly take over the reigns if Thornton and Marleau are traded

Marleau and Couture CF% together: 54.9%
Marleau CF% without Couture (playing mostly center, which he isn't used to): 50.4%
Couture CF% without marleau: 44.7%

Thornton and Pavelski CF% together: 61.6%
Thornton CF% without Pavelski: 55.5%
Pavelski CF% without Thornton (playing against 3rd line competition primarily): 51.9%
 

Dicdonya

Registered User
Jul 21, 2011
4,444
2,590
For those who expect Couture and Pavelski to seamlessly take over the reigns if Thornton and Marleau are traded

Marleau and Couture CF% together: 54.9%
Marleau CF% without Couture (playing mostly center, which he isn't used to): 50.4%
Couture CF% without marleau: 44.7%

Thornton and Pavelski CF% together: 61.6%
Thornton CF% without Pavelski: 55.5%
Pavelski CF% without Thornton (playing against 3rd line competition primarily): 51.9%

A little ot but what site do you and others use to pull specific data like this? I've found sites to get yearly and players corsi etc but not this specific of sample sizes, would love to be able to look at more specific data. Thanks.
 

spintops

Registered User
Sep 13, 2013
1,640
822
Burns w/ jumbo 60.2%
Burns without 40.9%

Jumbo with wingels 51%
Jumbo withdraw neito. 49%

Jumbo is a big drop off without elite wingers as well. People show his stats without pavs but he was glued to Burns, his cf had a big drop without Brent.
 

do0glas

Registered User
Jan 26, 2012
13,271
683
For those who expect Couture and Pavelski to seamlessly take over the reigns if Thornton and Marleau are traded

Marleau and Couture CF% together: 54.9%
Marleau CF% without Couture (playing mostly center, which he isn't used to): 50.4%
Couture CF% without marleau: 44.7%

Thornton and Pavelski CF% together: 61.6%
Thornton CF% without Pavelski: 55.5%
Pavelski CF% without Thornton (playing against 3rd line competition primarily): 51.9%

yea Jumbo goes from 60% with burns to 53% without. so what? and pavs was primarily against 3rd line comp with third line-linemates. thornton never has that big of a drop in QoT where as pavs does, yet there is a 2 percent diff in CF. big freakin WHOOP.

where pavs received most of his boost was GF% not CF%. even without jumbo he was a good positive in the goalscoring dept. as well.

heres some stats just to play your game

wingels with pavs
GF% 61/ CF% 54

without pavs
GF 49%/ CF% 52%

burns with pavs
GF% 71% !!!/CF% 58%

without pavs
GF% 56/CF% 55

looks like with a decent winger with size/speed he can do just fine

for couture its interesting if we look at the season before this one to get a bigger sample size

couture with marleau
GF% 59%/CF% 51%

without marleau

GF% 64%/CF% 53%

he had more minutes without marleau that year.

if you look at 12/13 as well pavs with joe doesnt get quite the boost that he did this year. what changed? burns.

your couture one is even more disingenuous in that couture apart was an incredible 84 minutes, whereas marleau apart was over 300. not to mention that marleau has a ridiculous amount of NHL experience, with quite a few games at Center id wager. so saying he isnt used to it does not mean anything. especially given the sharks system where it is practically interchangeable depending on who enters the zone first.

marleau out of pavs, thornton, marleau and stuart is the last one i want to trade to be honest. but you arent seeing pavs/couture for what they actually are. stop being blinded by one seasons worth of data in which pavs was tied to joe in a desperate attempt to hit 40. the couture/marleau thing is just as beneficial for marleau as it is couture. they have chemistry as a line and id say couture was actually the more dynamic offensive player. but it was a great yin and yang type of line because marleau did do grunt work defensively, but couture made things happen in the O-zone. the line needed both of them.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad