Proposal: Off-Season Moves

[Forgot About Drai]

Not trying to sign Barrie will be the biggest mistake this organization makes in the last decade of they don't at least try. I'm a big Bouchard fan but in no way shape or form is he replicating what Barrie has done. This team hasn't had anyone close to Barrie's offensive impact in the 12 years I've been following the team. If he prices himself out then fine, but if the choice is to not resign him because they want Bouchard to replicate his offense we are in for the same rude awakening when chia thought pulju was going to replace Halls offense.

Generally curious...

Besides traditional box score stats, Barrie's offensive impact doesnt seem that huge (GF%, XGF%, etc). Seems to be driven a lot by playing with Mcdavid/Drai.

How do you consolidate these two? Or do you completely throw out his subpar analytics?

Not coming at you, just curious to see the though process. I think he has been good considering his deal right now, but I think big money extension for his impact isnt the best idea.

 

[Oilhawks]

Oilers have a lot of cap space but not a lot of money freed up. They have I think 13 players to sign which doesn't give them any money to invest in a big name player. They'll need to resign 6 forwards to an average of $1M each, and that's with meagre raises for Yamamoto and RNH.

They should have around 9-12M to use on upgrades. The amount is closer to 9 depending on if they re-sign RNH with a raise and a small raise for a Yam bridge. I left out any of the ~1M guys and did not count RNH or Larsson coming off the books (as they will need to be re-signed or replacements made in and around that range), I also didn’t count Klef going to LTIR (as he may come back as well).

Here’s where the money comes from:

2.15 from Chiasson
3.75 from Barrie
2.75 from Russell contract decrease
1.5 Smith
1.33 Pouliot
1 Sekera

That’s 12.48 that can be used in part for modest raises for RNH or Larsson (or their replacements) as well as for Yams. The rest can be spent on at least 2 of 3 holes on the roster (top 6 wing, 3C and goalie).

I imagine that Koskinen, Neal, and / or Kassian are dealt with in some manner to free up more cap as well.

 

[bone]

Lol out some of these numbers . Nurse isn’t getting 9 million . He probably will get 7.5 . Puljujarvi is getting 4 million yet unless he really up his game next year . Tatar , Saad would be 2 wings I would like to add 5 million each for 4-5 years . If kulikov proves to be good re-sign him at 2.5x2 . Even if Klefbom comes back

LD
Nurse
Klefbom
Kulikov

Move Jones and Russell for late picks
Bring up Holloway Benson and McLeod. Turris to AHL .

Tatar McDavid Puljujarvi
Saad Draisaitl Yamamoto
Holloway McLeod Kassian

I made the same argument this past summer using the fact that the only defensemen that hadn't at least been a Norris nominee over $6.5M was Jacob Trouba. However, Nurse is on his way to Norris nominations this year. I don't think he'll win but I do believe he'll get votes. As such, he could move himself into that $8M+ market. The only hope is that the market correction keeps him below $8M.

 

[bone]

Given where I live I dislike the Leafs probably more than most on here. But I also hear a lot more about there moves. I am not suggesting that Dubas is some genius but here is what he did do that has worked. He recognized that he had a young talented core that he could build around and he paid them a lot. (Too much in my mind but that is a different matter). Unfortunately, if you pay your core a lot you cannot afford dead money. He had some assets that were not essential and his futures . So he used those assets and his futures to get rid of all of his bad contracts to clear cap space. And then because he had few futures he concentrated on signing Euros and undrafted US collge players. Right now the closest thing he has to bad money on that team is Kerfoot at $3.5M who is contributing much more right now than a guy like Kassian.

The Oilers problem is that they have too much money wrapped up in places where they could replace the contributions for much less. Add in close to $4M that Chia left in wasted cap space from his buyouts of Pouliot and Sekera and there is close to $20M that is being used very inefficiently on guys like Neal, Russell, Kassian, Turris and Chiasson. If you could magically make all of that go awy you would be left with the following line-up

Nuge McDavid Puljujarvi
Kahun Draisaitl Yamamoto
Ennis Haas Archibald
Benson Khaira Shore
Nygard McLeod

Nurse Barrie
Kulikov Bear
Lagesson Larsson
Jones

Smith
Koskinen

And you would have $18M in cap space to improve that team.

How much worse is this team than what they are currently icing? They have Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, Samorukov, Savoie... in the prospect pool.

I think the most important thing this team caan do over the next two years is to get rid of the deadweight salary and replace those players with one or more impact players. If this costs futures I'd be ok with that if there is a plan.

That is Dubas best attribute is creativity around the cap. I think he's overpaid some of his key players but as you said he's good at ridding himself of overpaid cap hits that don't help. I'd much rather overpay my best player than my fourth line right winger.

 

[Little Fury]

I am not even convinced he need to use the first. That is what happens if you are are in a possition like Dubas was with Marleau with a guy who was over 35 with a full NMC and a $6.25M cap hit who would only approve a trade if it was followed by a buout. So you had to on very short notice find a team to eat $850K in real money but also take on $6.3M in dead cap space in one year.

It seems that cap sharing is now much more acceptable. If they are creative the cost to move Neal should be less than a 1st. It will be interesting to see what they do with Kassian. At $3.2M they could maybe gove him one more year to find his game. But if he plays like he has this year that contract is an issue.

Yeah that's my concern. They had teams like Detroit, New York and SJ making it clear they are happy to serve as cap brokers, but didn't even explore the possibility. Seems bad!

 

[bone]

Yeah that's my concern. They had teams like Detroit, New York and SJ making it clear they are happy to serve as cap brokers, but didn't even explore the possibility. Seems bad!

I share the concern, but you can also look at cap brokerage in the summer. I know you and I feel differently, but the deadline for Holland was about putting Edmonton in the best position he could for the playoffs without mortgaging much of the future. He may have seen opportunities to off load Neal or Koskinen on someone but if he didn't value the asset he'd be getting in return more than what they may contribute to the final 14 games and playoffs, might as well wait until summer to do so.

In many ways, I think cap brokerage opportunities may be the better use of our trade capital right now as a few prudent signings this summer and removal of the last of the bad contracts set Edmonton up much better for next years deadline and beyond.

 

[Del Preston]

Don't we save more if we just buy them out? I know that's true for Koskinen and Neal... haven't checked Kassian. I can't see the return on the two former being worth the added retained cap.

Yeah, but the cap hit would stay for the Oilers for double the amount of time.

Kassian's buyout is under a million dollars for four of the six years.

 

[belair]

I hope you realize there’s a reason why you’re the only one who keeps suggesting him.

And I hope you realize that the fact that he's played with Darnell and played for Tippett previously makes us a logical landing spot.

I look for things that make sense. And your opinion is based on an emotional response to something that you don't have all of the information for.

I personally prefer Tyson Barrie, because he's fit the roster like a glove. But if he prices himself out of Edmonton. DeAngelo is a player who presents a similar playstyle and production at a fraction of the cost.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Given where I live I dislike the Leafs probably more than most on here. But I also hear a lot more about there moves. I am not suggesting that Dubas is some genius but here is what he did do that has worked. He recognized that he had a young talented core that he could build around and he paid them a lot. (Too much in my mind but that is a different matter). Unfortunately, if you pay your core a lot you cannot afford dead money. He had some assets that were not essential and his futures . So he used those assets and his futures to get rid of all of his bad contracts to clear cap space. And then because he had few futures he concentrated on signing Euros and undrafted US collge players. Right now the closest thing he has to bad money on that team is Kerfoot at $3.5M who is contributing much more right now than a guy like Kassian.

The Oilers problem is that they have too much money wrapped up in places where they could replace the contributions for much less. Add in close to $4M that Chia left in wasted cap space from his buyouts of Pouliot and Sekera and there is close to $20M that is being used very inefficiently on guys like Neal, Russell, Kassian, Turris and Chiasson. If you could magically make all of that go awy you would be left with the following line-up

Nuge McDavid Puljujarvi
Kahun Draisaitl Yamamoto
Ennis Haas Archibald
Benson Khaira Shore
Nygard McLeod

Nurse Barrie
Kulikov Bear
Lagesson Larsson
Jones

Smith
Koskinen

And you would have $18M in cap space to improve that team.

How much worse is this team than what they are currently icing? They have Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, Samorukov, Savoie... in the prospect pool.

I think the most important thing this team caan do over the next two years is to get rid of the deadweight salary and replace those players with one or more impact players. If this costs futures I'd be ok with that if there is a plan.

I bite my lip but the Leafs have navigated the Cap well imo. Though I think Gillman deserves a lot of that credit.

Sekera was a Holland buy-out which was a hard pill to swallow but a necessary evil to try to upgrade the NHL quality depth on a Swiss Cheese roster. I think this team needs to move on from the Neal contract and find a way to do that without a full buy-out. Kassian too is playing himself off the roster especially with a pre-covid salary. The incoming Seattle expansion is a pretty rare opportunity for all teams to clear dead weight with a team that has a blank slate salary cap. Seattle I imagine will take a limited number of bad contracts but the price will be premium plus. Personally, I might consider a couple of bite the bullet scenarios - Neal and an Oilers #1 pick (likely 20 or later) or even nibble around the idea of trading Bear to Seattle with agreement Seattle takes Neal. This latter scenario needs Barrie resigned or divine intervention of a true #1 right shot d Hamilton signing in Edmonton.

We saw some really creative cap maneuvering by Tampa and Leafs to name a couple who are both in win now mode. I wonder if a Kassian player might have value to a team like Seattle or Detroit who could retain say $2 million while making a potential playoff type guy like Zach available cheap at a future trade deadline. Big issue is the length of Kassian's contract but a big body guy who can skate and versatility to move around the roster might have appeal to a future contender looking for physical depth players for a Cup run.

We're in a pure spitballing moment in time without the information NHL management wields. We do know cap space is gold standard in a covid flat cap world. I hope the Oilers find ways to cull their dead weight without adding more dead money on the books. Might take a rip off the bandage action that has some temporary pain but helps big picture to maximize roster construction with cheap supply options thanks to covid and have money available as opportunity comes up at key times like Trade Deadline. Very, very critical time for Edmonton coming up beginning this summer.

 

[McNuge]

Generally curious...

Besides traditional box score stats, Barrie's offensive impact doesnt seem that huge (GF%, XGF%, etc). Seems to be driven a lot by playing with Mcdavid/Drai.

How do you consolidate these two? Or do you completely throw out his subpar analytics?

Not coming at you, just curious to see the though process. I think he has been good considering his deal right now, but I think big money extension for his impact isnt the best idea.

Im really judging it by what I see on the ice. I really don't like looking at advanced stats and isolating between mcdrai and the rest of the team because quite frankly the rest of the forward group is shit besides those 2. And it's not like he hasn't put up big numbers before, he was awesome on the AVS for all those years and there was plenty of talk trying to trade Nuge for him.

If he's looking for a big pay day then I'd agree you let him walk. But, if he is willing to take a reasonable deal I just think you can't walk from that after years and years and years of having no d man who could make a break out pass and skate with the puck like Barrie has. For all his warts I don't think he's nearly as bad defensively as we were led to believe. I find myself saying "WTF BARRIE" less as the season progresses. He just looks very comfortable on the team and his pairing with Nurse has been fantastic all year.

The biggest problem is that neither him nor Bouchard can play the PK which is why we haven't seen Bouchard over bear because you need 2 reliable pairings to be able to play PK. Realistically Tipp should be playing 7 d cause our 4th line is putrid, but I digress.

At the end of the day if Klef is out you almost need to resign him. The team struggles way too much when we can't make a breakout pass. Barrie has been our only player all year who's been able to do that. Nurse has put up nice goals and has added a but more offense to his game but Barrie is the offensive driver from our backend.

 

[Zamknij kurwa ryj]

What?

Seems pretty clear, no?

If Jones and Bear are still on the roster going into next season, they should be getting time in the AHL to develop their games. Do you disagree with that notion?

 

[Mr Sakich]

It is sad that we do not have the organizational depth to be truly hurt by and expansion draft but we it creates some interesting options coming up for the expansion draft.

1) it probably does not matter if we resign RNH + Larsson before draft. If we can agree to a price, may as well wait till after draft. Both know and trust the org to follow through on a promise.

2) Klefbom may not play another game in the nhl so can be easily exposed. Huge risk for Seattle to take him. His insurance may not follow him so they may be on the hook for his salary. Even if he gets a clean bill of health, the reality is that he might be gone for good after an innocent looking hit during next years' pre season.

3) Koskinen and Stallock both meet the goalie requirement and neither would be a loss


I wonder if we could swing a deal with another team who has 2 good goalies and will be losing one. Offer Benson plus Stallock for a starter. The other teams gets a prospect and an AHL goalie without losing decent goalie for nothing

We have space in our forwards. We could offer something plus a low pick for a decent player that a team is about to lose for nothing.

 

[bone]

It is sad that we do not have the organizational depth to be truly hurt by and expansion draft but we it creates some interesting options coming up for the expansion draft.

1) it probably does not matter if we resign RNH + Larsson before draft. If we can agree to a price, may as well wait till after draft. Both know and trust the org to follow through on a promise.

2) Klefbom may not play another game in the nhl so can be easily exposed. Huge risk for Seattle to take him. His insurance may not follow him so they may be on the hook for his salary. Even if he gets a clean bill of health, the reality is that he might be gone for good after an innocent looking hit during next years' pre season.

3) Koskinen and Stallock both meet the goalie requirement and neither would be a loss


I wonder if we could swing a deal with another team who has 2 good goalies and will be losing one. Offer Benson plus Stallock for a starter. The other teams gets a prospect and an AHL goalie without losing decent goalie for nothing

We have space in our forwards. We could offer something plus a low pick for a decent player that a team is about to lose for nothing.

Yeah. The fact that neither Jones or Lagesson have proven indispensible while seeming to be a negative is a positive for the expansion draft. I think we can quite comfortably now go 7-3-1 and only have to be overly concerned about protecting 4 of the forwards in McDrai, JP and KY as no one has proven to be irreplaceable. A team that's likely losing a forward anyways may be willing to trade them to get an extra asset (assuming there's a significant drop between their 8th and 9th best forwards). Tampa in particular might be a good target for this, though they are deep enough they may just say take the best guy and call it a day, but I suspect they'd like to navigate this to drop two larger contracts amongst their 5-8th best forwards.

 

[Anarchism]

Im really judging it by what I see on the ice. I really don't like looking at advanced stats and isolating between mcdrai and the rest of the team because quite frankly the rest of the forward group is shit besides those 2. And it's not like he hasn't put up big numbers before, he was awesome on the AVS for all those years and there was plenty of talk trying to trade Nuge for him.

If he's looking for a big pay day then I'd agree you let him walk. But, if he is willing to take a reasonable deal I just think you can't walk from that after years and years and years of having no d man who could make a break out pass and skate with the puck like Barrie has. For all his warts I don't think he's nearly as bad defensively as we were led to believe. I find myself saying "WTF BARRIE" less as the season progresses. He just looks very comfortable on the team and his pairing with Nurse has been fantastic all year.

The biggest problem is that neither him nor Bouchard can play the PK which is why we haven't seen Bouchard over bear because you need 2 reliable pairings to be able to play PK. Realistically Tipp should be playing 7 d cause our 4th line is putrid, but I digress.

At the end of the day if Klef is out you almost need to resign him. The team struggles way too much when we can't make a breakout pass. Barrie has been our only player all year who's been able to do that. Nurse has put up nice goals and has added a but more offense to his game but Barrie is the offensive driver from our backend.

You will likely be saying 'WTF' more frequently when things tighten up in the playoffs--especially on away games!

 

[Mr Sakich]

Yeah. The fact that neither Jones or Lagesson have proven indispensible while seeming to be a negative is a positive for the expansion draft. I think we can quite comfortably now go 7-3-1 and only have to be overly concerned about protecting 4 of the forwards in McDrai, JP and KY as no one has proven to be irreplaceable. A team that's likely losing a forward anyways may be willing to trade them to get an extra asset (assuming there's a significant drop between their 8th and 9th best forwards).

I am thinking a team might be worried about their 4th dman. We could trade for that guy and go with 8 skaters plus goaltender and still not be hurt badly. I count 3 dmen worth protecting and 4 forwards right now

 

[bone]

I am thinking a team might be worried about their 4th dman. We could trade for that guy and go with 8 skaters plus goaltender and still not be hurt badly. I count 3 dmen worth protecting and 4 forwards right now

That as well, but I think the organization need and opportunity is better looking at the forwards particularly if it looks like Larsson will resign after expansion and Klefbom is healing well.

 

[belair]

Seems pretty clear, no?

If Jones and Bear are still on the roster going into next season, they should be getting time in the AHL to develop their games. Do you disagree with that notion?

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear both require waivers to play in the AHL. Jones might clear, but Bear would certainly be claimed considering he only makes $2m.

 

[Zamknij kurwa ryj]

Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear both require waivers to play in the AHL. Jones might clear, but Bear would certainly be claimed considering he only makes $2m.

Well that's a faceplam. My brain seems to have stopped functioning lol. I'd blame it on an exhaustion but I can't believe I didn't even take that into account.

Yeah, doubtful both wouldn't get claimed. I still maintain that ideally both should be playing in the AHL though with where their games are at.

 

[Little Fury]

Seems pretty clear, no?

If Jones and Bear are still on the roster going into next season, they should be getting time in the AHL to develop their games. Do you disagree with that notion?

Yes. They're NHL players right now.

 

[McNuge]

You will likely be saying 'WTF' more frequently when things tighten up in the playoffs--especially on away games!

Idk he seems to play a bit better in tight games tbh, I feel like he gets exposed more in transition games than tighter checking.

 

[Anarchism]

Idk he seems to play a bit better in tight games tbh, I feel like he gets exposed more in transition games than tighter checking.

Barrie won a board battle once....he remembers it.....his mom was tigthening his laces between periods ....

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Looking at the expansion draft some names that could be exposed and therefore could be potential cheap acquisitions if a team wanted to trade them rather than expose them to Seattle.

• Jordan Greenway
• Brady Skjei
• Jake Bean
• Nino Niederreiter
  
• Ryan Graves
• Joonas Donskoi
• Jake Allen
• Anton Khudobin

With respect to our own protection slots, I think we already have our 3 d protection slots accounted for (unless we get bad news with respect to Klef), but I can't say the same for our forward or goaltending protection slots, there is certainly room to try and take advantage of the expansion draft.

 

[Tyrolean]

Looking at the expansion draft some names that could be exposed and therefore could be potential cheap acquisitions if a team wanted to trade them rather than expose them to Seattle.

• Jordan Greenway
• Brady Skjei
• Jake Bean
• Nino Niederreiter
  
• Ryan Graves
• Joonas Donskoi
• Jake Allen
• Anton Khudobin

With respect to our own protection slots, I think we already have our 3 d protection slots accounted for (unless we get bad news with respect to Klef), but I can't say the same for our forward or goaltending protection slots, there is certainly room to try and take advantage of the expansion draft.

Who are the 3 D-men protected? I see Nurse for sure. Maybe Bear (if not for trade purposes), and ?? You don't waste a slot for UFA''s like Larsson and Barrie if they have a handshake agreement to sign after the expansion draft. I'd pick Jones as you can trade him later. Klef should not be protected as Seattle won't take him. Seattle may pick Lagesson or a forward. Oilers protect McDrai, Yams, PJ and maybe Archibald plus 2 new forwards. Smith will be the goalie protected and hope they pick Koskinen lol.

 

[McCombo]

The bottom6 needs a big change if this team wants to seriously contend for Stanley Cup.

Forwards you let go:
Chiasson; PP specialist, nothing else.
Khaira; He has been part of one of the worst bottom6 for years. He is not going to be solution to get better. Horrible numbers every year.
Shore; Bad player. Doesn't help one bit.
Kahun/Ennis; One you sign, other you let go. 3LW spot.
Nygård; Can skate, but can't do anything else at NHL level.
Haas; I have kinda liked his game. Would sign him over Khaira, but upgrade shouldn't be that hard to get.

Forwards you re-sign:
RNH; not the greatest year for him, but the team can't cut quality players when it is lacking exactly that.
Yamamoto; see above.
Ennis/Kahun; Should be a cheap deal.

Try to get rid of Turris, Neal and/or Kassian. I would send 1st round pick with Neal or 2nd round pick with Kassian for Seattle if agree to take either one.

On defense you also need more skill and less "glass'n'out" players. I would throw big money towards Hamilton, but that is unlikely scenario. I am not fan of Larsson. Doesn't really understand what many see in him? He is one dimensional defender who isn't even that good at suppressing chances against. Actual elite defensive defenseman help their team to out-chance and out-score opponents by not allowing chances against. He is decent in defensive zone, but he spends way too much time there. Definition of a 3rd pairing defenseman that gets out-chanced and out-scored, without a good partner. Doesn't really move the needle. If he gets resigned he should be paid accordingly to what 3rd pairing guys get. No way I give him over 2 year extension and needs to take pay cut. Has history with bad back also.

Barrie is one dimensional too, but with the opposite skill-set. He has skills that team lacks, more than Larsson but on the other hand Bouchard should be getting minutes and they provide same qualities. Would re-sign him over Larsson, but something like 3x4. If that isn't enough then let him walk. Don't understand the hate that Bear gets. He is the only that can really push the play and out-chance opponents. People don't realize how much good things he does on the ice. Defends the blue line well, that forces opponent to dump the puck and can move the puck well. Those are traits that team lacks and why they spend too much time defending. Kulikov is unknown at this point.

Nurse-Bear
x-Barrie/Bouchard
Jones-Bouchard/Larsson
Lagesson/Russell

Driedger would be my target also. I am fine with either Koskinen or Smith as a back-up, shouldn't make or break the team. But not a fan if they buy Koskinen out. Rather trade with retention.

 

[JBear]

Our 4th line of Shore Khaira and Archibald are killing it right now. Sign Khaira to a 1 year cheap deal. Definitely resign Shore. It's the third line plugs of Kahun Ennis Neal Chiasson Kassian Turris that are killing us. I was also a big fan of Ennis and Turris signings. Haad is a cheap 5th centre and Nygard is just cheap sitting in the taxi squad.

I'd resign Barrie in a heartbeat if Klefbom didn't return and gives us cap space.