Observations XX

[wadesworld]

"Deserving" is the word I'd interpret differently. Do you deserve it more because you had a better month in the AHL? Or because you had a better entire past year and are considered to have the highest overall potential to make an impact in the NHL? I don't think it's any business of the other players down there to try to interpret how I make the decisions as GM. If they get discouraged by whatever "message" they take away from me calling up Tolvanen, then that is their problem. Because frankly nobody down there other than Tolvanen is a player I really expect to see as part of my long term core.

Anyway, I'm stating that as GM-me speaking, based on the decision I'd make, given all the specifics of this situation. Not disagreeing that it isn't open to debate, however.

He's going into Arvidsson's spot, that's the whole point for me. I'm not putting him the bottom six. He may still do nothing, carrying over his lacklustre AHL start. In which case, nothing much lost. Or maybe it'll give him a spark to be playing top line with two fantastic players. I'd make the little token investment in stoking the Tolvanen fire.

I think a lot depends on their assessment of where Tolvanen is. Has his lackluster start been because he's still learning? Is it because he's been unlucky? Or is it because he's not working hard enough?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think a lot depends on their assessment of where Tolvanen is. Has his lackluster start been because he's still learning? Is it because he's been unlucky? Or is it because he's not working hard enough?

For sure, there is a whole host of first-hand data I don't have that they will. They'll have first-hand observations of his attitude, fitness, work ethic, etc - and that of his competitors. I'm just looking at player stats and history all that fantasy armchair GM stuff hoping it means something. It's not enough for the real world decisions, of course. But that's our lot as fans. So sure, that caveat can be made explicit just in case anybody thought I actually was on the staff.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

"Deserving" is the word I'd interpret differently. Do you deserve it more because you had a better month in the AHL? Or because you had a better entire past year and are considered to have the highest overall potential to make an impact in the NHL? I don't think it's any business of the other players down there to try to interpret how I make the decisions as GM. If they get discouraged by whatever "message" they take away from me calling up Tolvanen, then that is their problem. Because frankly nobody down there other than Tolvanen is a player I really expect to see as part of my long term core.

Anyway, I'm stating that as GM-me speaking, based on the decision I'd make, given all the specifics of this situation. Not disagreeing that it isn't open to debate, however.

He's going into Arvidsson's spot, that's the whole point for me. I'm not putting him the bottom six. He may still do nothing, carrying over his lacklustre AHL start. In which case, nothing much lost. Or maybe it'll give him a spark to be playing top line with two fantastic players. I'd make the little token investment in stoking the Tolvanen fire.

I'd at least try it. Put him on the line with Joey and Forsberg and let it ride. It could be the spark he needs. What do you lose?

 

[PredsV82]

I'd at least try it. Put him on the line with Joey and Forsberg and let it ride. It could be the spark he needs. What do you lose?

You lose if he stinks it up and it hurts his confidence.

You lose if he plays decent and still gets sent back down and pouts.

IMO you dont bring him up for a short stay. You bring him back when you know hes ready to stick

 

[predfan24]

I'd at least try it. Put him on the line with Joey and Forsberg and let it ride. It could be the spark he needs. What do you lose?

Hockey Games

From all accounts Tolvanen has not stood out with the Ads. Obviously, he is being groomed as a potential special player but there is no need to reward a 19 year old kid who hasn't earned a spot.

It feels to me that his incredible success last year has created unrealistic expectations. In my view, he still is very raw and needs to improve drastically in several key areas in order to be a good NHLer.

 

[Drake744]

Hockey Games

From all accounts Tolvanen has not stood out with the Ads. Obviously, he is being groomed as a potential special player but there is no need to reward a 19 year old kid who hasn't earned a spot.

It feels to me that his incredible success last year has created unrealistic expectations. In my view, he still is very raw and needs to improve drastically in several key areas in order to be a good NHLer.

damn you took my response

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Hockey Games

From all accounts Tolvanen has not stood out with the Ads. Obviously, he is being groomed as a potential special player but there is no need to reward a 19 year old kid who hasn't earned a spot.

It feels to me that his incredible success last year has created unrealistic expectations. In my view, he still is very raw and needs to improve drastically in several key areas in order to be a good NHLer.

To be honest I haven't got to watch the kid play in Milwaukee so I don't know how he's playing. I don't want to base it on stats alone. Is he getting better at getting separation? Is he getting unlucky bounces? I don't know maybe you could tell me hows he looked. Does he look like he's getting more comfortable playing on a smaller ice?

 

[Legionnaire11]

It really is looking like Tolvanen went on a hot streak for a few months last year but is actually the project type with high potential that he was billed as at the draft. If we're patient, and he works hard, we'll be very happy with the payoff in another year or two. Rushing him right now would only hurt the player and the team.

 

[predfan24]

To be honest I haven't got to watch the kid play in Milwaukee so I don't know how he's playing. I don't want to base it on stats alone. Is he getting better at getting separation? Is he getting unlucky bounces? I don't know maybe you could tell me hows he looked. Does he look like he's getting more comfortable playing on a smaller ice?

If you go to the prospects thread just a few threads under here there are several Ads fans who will post update and analysis of the games and players. From what I've been able to gather he has not stood out at all at even strength.

I understand your perspective on not just wanting to just stat watch and I agree with you. However, I think with offensive players you can bend that line of thinking a bit.

Tolvanen is known for his shot. He has one goal in 13 games. I believe he had a three assist game. That means in the other 12 games he has 4 points. He is not a driver of the offense down there yet.

Don't get me wrong it's only been 13 games into his pro career. No reason to rush to judgments. But he has not earned a call up. When you look at Fiala, Arvy, Forsberg, hell even Aberg; all these guys were standouts with the Ads before they became full time NHLers.

I think the Preds would have to be desperate for scoring to call him up. Preds are 8th in GF/G right now.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

...
I think the Preds would have to be desperate for scoring to call him up. Preds are 8th in GF/G right now.

Or... since they are NOT desperate for offense, it's the perfect time to call him up... no pressure on him. If he doesn't produce, no big deal.

I don't think you call him up for offense anyway... 1 goal with the Ads doesn't argue for that. Instead I just call him up based on his resume and overall status as a prospect, basically. Last year he was great playing against men, and on the international stage. Maybe he's streaky, ok. Maybe he'll score, maybe he won't. But I just think he has already proven a lot more than just what his 12 game stint in the AHL shows.

I guess you could put Jarnkrok or Grimaldi or Hartman up on the top line or do some other shuffle of the lines for the couple games Arvidsson might miss. But I wouldn't expect that suddenly WINS GAMES for us that having Tolvanen there instead wouldn't. Really, it's the loss of Arvidsson that hurts. I don't think he can be replaced with any of our internal options. So it's a losing proposition no matter what. So no harm in giving the Top Prospect a little taste of the big time to whet his appetite.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Last year he was great playing against men, and on the international stage.

On big ice. I'm serious you guys, he is not even close to being ready. He has trouble getting off his one timer from the circle on the PP because there's not as much space as he's used to.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

From all accounts Tolvanen has not stood out with the Ads. Obviously, he is being groomed as a potential special player but there is no need to reward a 19 year old kid who hasn't earned a spot.

It's interesting to me that it's viewed as that much of a "reward". Come up for a TBD cup of coffee... to me it's more about getting another gauge of his potential and progress than about anything else. I don't know what he'd have to do to stay beyond the few games Arvidsson might miss. Score a hat trick every game? It would take a lot. He'd know he's just up for brief stint, it's no big reward to him, he could be making 10 times his salary in the KHL and living it up as a star again if he really wanted. Yes, you can also gauge his progress while he toils in Milwaukee and I'm sure they're doing that too. But a stint as JOFT and some PP time with the big guns... that's a different playing field to gauge him in. It's not like he can make our PP worse right now either.

You lose if he stinks it up and it hurts his confidence.

Dunno how he could stink it up much worse than he reportedly is already. Players aren't THAT fragile. If he was that fragile, getting sent down in the first place or struggling to do anything in the AHL would have already broke him and we might as well give up on him already. 2 or 3 scoreless games in the NHL won't be anything extra for him to agonize over.

You lose if he plays decent and still gets sent back down and pouts.

Again, if he was going to pout, he'd be pouting already wouldn't he?

IMO you dont bring him up for a short stay. You bring him back when you know hes ready to stick

Even if things go well for him in Milwaukee I don't know that we have a spot for him to stick in until Smith goes UFA. So that's a 2-year sentence almost no matter what. I think it would be reasonable to take a few looks at him in the meantime when small opportunities like this present themselves.

 

[triggrman]

if he needs 2 years to adjust,he's not the prospect we thought he wsas

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

Don't understand how you could call up Tolvanen when there are more productive players to be called up. He has been a passenger so far in the AHL. The NHL would be that much worse.

 

[Gh24]

It's interesting to me that it's viewed as that much of a "reward". Come up for a TBD cup of coffee... to me it's more about getting another gauge of his potential and progress than about anything else. I don't know what he'd have to do to stay beyond the few games Arvidsson might miss. Score a hat trick every game? It would take a lot. He'd know he's just up for brief stint, it's no big reward to him, he could be making 10 times his salary in the KHL and living it up as a star again if he really wanted.

I'd say it's more of a chance to showcase yourself for the big club. Preds staff obviously has their scouting report, but you can make a whole lot better impression in person. Show up, work hard and earn another chance when they need a fill again. Maybe a permanent place in the future? Maybe, maybe not, but at least you're getting paid better for your efforts. Hell yeah it's a reward! You get to play in the NHL!

 

[Legionnaire11]

if he needs 2 years to adjust,he's not the prospect we thought he wsas

There's a difference between the prospect we thought he was on draft day and the prospect we thought he was in the first half of the KHL season. We adjusted our expectations but maybe jumped the gun a bit?

If he starts lighting up the AHL though, then we make a spot for him up here and figure out Smith or whoever else later, we're not going to keep Tolvanen in the AHL to score 30-40 for two years.

 

[Armourboy]

On big ice. I'm serious you guys, he is not even close to being ready. He has trouble getting off his one timer from the circle on the PP because there's not as much space as he's used to.

Considering you watch him almost every game, I'll go with your opinion on it.

Forsberg and Fiala both needed time in the AHL. Let the process work and give it time.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Forsberg and Fiala both needed time in the AHL. Let the process work and give it time.

Every player is different, situations and opportunities for looks are different too. Fiala and Forsberg certaintly got looks. Nobody is disputing that Tolvanen needs his time in the AHL.. that is about the only thing he HAS shown so far this year. You can however take a look at him when this opportunity arises without affecting the overall plan to "let the process work and give it time" is all.

Meanwhile, it doesn't look they will actually bring anybody up, and they don't need to anyway, so it's a probably a moot point. I'd expect 3 games 0 pts from anybody they bring up, including Tolvanen, and from Grimaldi or Gaudreau getting into the lineup (not nec. Line 1), it's not like there is anything significant to be gained or lost in either direction in all likelihood.

 

[Drake744]

I should know this but who have our healthy scratch forwards been since the Arvy injury? Obviously we haven't called anyone up and even though we still can, I'm just a little surprised we didn't before leaving for the long trip. But then again Arvy may just be back soon anyway.

 

[Armourboy]

I think it's just been rolling around since they called Grimaldi up and Rinaldo and Arvy got hurt.

 

[Armourboy]

Every player is different, situations and opportunities for looks are different too. Fiala and Forsberg certaintly got looks. Nobody is disputing that Tolvanen needs his time in the AHL.. that is about the only thing he HAS shown so far this year. You can however take a look at him when this opportunity arises without affecting the overall plan to "let the process work and give it time" is all.

Meanwhile, it doesn't look they will actually bring anybody up, and they don't need to anyway, so it's a probably a moot point. I'd expect 3 games 0 pts from anybody they bring up, including Tolvanen, and from Grimaldi or Gaudreau getting into the lineup (not nec. Line 1), it's not like there is anything significant to be gained or lost in either direction in all likelihood.

When he earns a shot then call him up, otherwise call up someone who has earned it. No reason to bring him up just to being him up, especially if he hasn't been playing all that well against lesser competition.

 

[FossilFndr]

Isn't there a whole thread for Eeli that has covered this?

 

[Legionnaire11]

Isn't there a whole thread for Eeli that has covered this?

Isn't HF Preds great when there are several day off in a row?

 

[BigFatCat999]

Isn't HF Preds great when there are several day off in a row?

Um....no!

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I'd rather give up picks than bring up Eeli for scoring help. Don't do that to the kid if he isn't ready.