Observations XV

[Byrddog]

Yet Chicago beat us last night without half their top 4.

And when you look at the boxscore the guys they played 20 minutes did a pretty good job for them in fact there studs Keith and Seabrook were the o nly two D that were minus on the night. Whereas Bitettio and Weber were minus for the Preds.

 

[glenngineer]

And when you look at the boxscore the guys they played 20 minutes did a pretty good job for them in fact there studs Keith and Seabrook were the o nly two D that were minus on the night. Whereas Bitettio and Weber were minus for the Preds.

Byrd, that's a different narrative though. Irwin and Weber had their worst games of the year last night. Bitetto hadn't played in what, a month? I can cut 2 Bit some slack for not being up to game speed but Weber and Irwin were plain awful.

Sure, the Hawks other defenders played well but to say we've got to have our top 4 in the lineup is not true. The problem was not the d last night as much as it was our guys having the inability to clear the zone as a whole. I can't remember a game where every time we tried to move the puck out of the zone it either didn't clear, bounced off a skate, a pass was intercepted, just basic ineptitude to take care of the puck on our part and no one is safe in this rant. I think every single player in our lineup committed some sort of sin in this regard last night. I have never seen anything like it from one hockey team in a game. If we were able to clear half the time last night on those minor mistakes, the outcome I think would've been much different but we shot ourselves in the foot tremendously with careless play.

 

[Byrddog]

Byrd, that's a different narrative though. Irwin and Weber had their worst games of the year last night. Bitetto hadn't played in what, a month? I can cut 2 Bit some slack for not being up to game speed but Weber and Irwin were plain awful.

Sure, the Hawks other defenders played well but to say we've got to have our top 4 in the lineup is not true. The problem was not the d last night as much as it was our guys having the inability to clear the zone as a whole. I can't remember a game where every time we tried to move the puck out of the zone it either didn't clear, bounced off a skate, a pass was intercepted, just basic ineptitude to take care of the puck on our part and no one is safe in this rant. I think every single player in our lineup committed some sort of sin in this regard last night. I have never seen anything like it from one hockey team in a game. If we were able to clear half the time last night on those minor mistakes, the outcome I think would've been much different but we shot ourselves in the foot tremendously with careless play.

Glenn the point is if one of the Preds top four are out the skill level of the 3rd pair and the spare is not good enough to plug in for an extended period. Three of the top 4 have missed sections of games. Weber and Irwin are not capable of playing at that level. if one adds the games PK16 and Josi 9 Ellis 9 so far missed thats 35 and counting. And it is part of the struggle the D has had. You are right you do not have to have the top 4 in every game but when that many mangames are missed there is a cause and effect. Not to mention after a lay off they do not come back 100%. Any time a key player misses the hole shows Neal missed and really has not shown back up Arvy has taken some of his slack up but the D its just not happening. The GGA has went up more than anticipated with the Subban trade GAG 2.78 19th in the league last year 2.60 14th in the league. Was Weber good for the difference or has PK caused all of i tor is it a combination of the loss gain + the missed mangames from this season. There is a little of all. In 11-12 the GGA was 2.50 Trotz last good year it has been on the rise since. The .28 difference over a season is is an additional 23 goals allowed and that would be a number of wins.

 

[glenngineer]

Glenn the point is if one of the Preds top four are out the skill level of the 3rd pair and the spare is not good enough to plug in for an extended period. Three of the top 4 have missed sections of games. Weber and Irwin are not capable of playing at that level. if one adds the games PK16 and Josi 9 Ellis 9 so far missed thats 35 and counting. And it is part of the struggle the D has had. You are right you do not have to have the top 4 in every game but when that many mangames are missed there is a cause and effect. Not to mention after a lay off they do not come back 100%. Any time a key player misses the hole shows Neal missed and really has not shown back up Arvy has taken some of his slack up but the D its just not happening. The GGA has went up more than anticipated with the Subban trade GAG 2.78 19th in the league last year 2.60 14th in the league. Was Weber good for the difference or has PK caused all of i tor is it a combination of the loss gain + the missed mangames from this season. There is a little of all. In 11-12 the GGA was 2.50 Trotz last good year it has been on the rise since. The .28 difference over a season is is an additional 23 goals allowed and that would be a number of wins.

What is the average of goals scored in the NHL over that same time span I wonder? Has it gone up or down as a whole? If it's a league wide trend I wouldn't be concerned, if it's just us then it's a worry for sure.

The thing is, how many teams have guys on their third pairing that can step in and play quality top pairing or top 4 minutes? I doubt many do unless it's a younger player earning their stripes. Jones was a commodity like that.

I don't think it's an issue of our D as much as it is top end talent up front. If you read my article about missing pieces, our talent level up front isn't capable of making up for losses on the back end. At the end of the day, the Hawks still had guys like Kane, Toews and Panarin in their lineup last night. Our top line played well and produced but it still comes down to lack of secondary scoring for us. Our top end talent is a level below what the top teams have. Our second line has the same issue except for Neal producing as a high level second line winger. Our third line, other than Fisher, is not producing at all AND our fourth line is an offensive black hole. You can't have 5 out of your 12 forwards not producing offensively. Parenteau will help some but it's not going to bolster our offense enough.

And I know we started talking about D and their issues but it's up front where we need to be improving.

 

[Enoch]

PredsV - I just do not think Rinne is the answer any more. This isn't just one year. This is 2.5 years. He is having a month of greatness surrounded by months of below average play. His decision making, poor angles, and rebound control (all of which used to be strengths) are now weaknesses. He is hurting this team consistently. I just do not see it any longer.

Do I think he is the only problem on this team? No way. He is no longer a strength.

He does steal games at times. He also gives up devastating softies on a more routine basis.

Maybe I'm just remembering what has been and missing that he still has "it"....

 

[PredsV82]

PredsV - I just do not think Rinne is the answer any more. This isn't just one year. This is 2.5 years. He is having a month of greatness surrounded by months of below average play. His decision making, poor angles, and rebound control (all of which used to be strengths) are now weaknesses. He is hurting this team consistently. I just do not see it any longer.

Do I think he is the only problem on this team? No way. He is no longer a strength.

He does steal games at times. He also gives up devastating softies on a more routine basis.

Maybe I'm just remembering what has been and missing that he still has "it"....

I don't dispute this. I'm just pointing g out that this year we either go with an untested rookie whose stats at least are looking less spectacular these days or we hope Rinne can get his crap together for a few weeks and that we can outscore the opposition on his bad nights.

I suspect that we start the playoffs with Rinne, but if we get in trouble Sars will get a shot and then we will see what happens.

 

[jwhouk]

LONG POST ABOUT STATS AHEAD.

As you all should know, I'm a bit of a stat nerd. I'm not one who subscribes to the CORSI stuff, mind you - I prefer to look at what's most important: scoring.

I've used a metric known as Points Created now for over twenty years. It's basically points, plus plus/minus (DO NOT LAUGH), plus penalty minutes times the league PP/PIM constant (which is always negative). The constant is what is says on the tin: league PP goals divided by total league PIM. Put it all together, you have a player's point creation total.

As an example, there's HF's favorite son, Connor McDavid. He has 72 points, and a +20 rating with 22 PIM's (or at least he did as of Friday). The league constant is .064503*, so that translates into a PCR of 90.6.

Now, what I've been doing as of late, to put a better value on a player's performance (because a 90 PCR could be good in the modern NHL, but middle-of-the-pack in the NHL of the 1980's), is to convert that PCR total into a per-60-minutes total. This way, we can use that to come up with a hypothetical winning percentage using the old Pythagorean Theorem tossed about by Bill James (The idea that the square of goals scored is to the square of goals allowed as wins are to losses; in our case the league goals per game total is the goals allowed in the projected winning percentage).

For McDavid, his PCR is 4.009 (90.6 x 60/1355.73 TOI). Comparing that to the league average goals per game of 2.772105, we get an offensive winning percentage of .677.

NOW... you take that total, multiply back by total TOI, divide by 60, and you have 15.3 offensive wins. Subtract .677 from 1 and repeat, and we have a projected offensive won-lost total of 15.3-7.3 for McDavid.

To make that a single number, I use another Jamesian creation, Fibonacci Wins, that multiplies wins by winning percentage, then add wins and subtract losses. For our example, Connor has an OFIB of 18.32. Only one other player in the NHL (as of Friday) had an OFIB greater than that - Mikael Granlund of the Minnesota Wild, whose 14.2-5.5 offensive won-lost record turned into an 18.89 OFIB.

And that's where we come into our problem. We have exactly one, count 'em, ONE player for Nashville who is in the top 50 in OFIB (the cutoff for which, by the way, is 6.15). That is Viktor Arvidsson, with an 8.65 OFIB (56.8 PCR, 10.1-7.3).

Washington and Pittsburgh have 8 and 6 in the top 50, each. Four other teams have four in the top 50, and they're who you'd expect: Columbus, Chicago, Minnesota, and the NY Rangers.

Here's my point: we do not have the firepower to compete with teams who have four or more big stars in their lineups. All other things being equal, this team is toast as soon as we hit the playoffs, especially if we have to play either Chicago or Minnesota in the first round.

Obviously, top 50 players don't grow on trees. Columbus and Minnesota's appearance on the list suggests that it doesn't take much to get to that next level. But having only one player with that level of "potential wins" in them isn't going to help come playoff time.

---

* - The league constant has fluctuated since the Preds entered the league, varying from .0431 in 1999 to .0645 in 2006, and dropping down to .0511 in 2012. A good estimate is to divide PIM by 20, but doing it on a per-season basis normalizes the totals.

 

[Smashville Stroke]

LONG POST ABOUT STATS AHEAD.

As you all should know, I'm a bit of a stat nerd. I'm not one who subscribes to the CORSI stuff, mind you - I prefer to look at what's most important: scoring.

I've used a metric known as Points Created now for over twenty years. It's basically points, plus plus/minus (DO NOT LAUGH), plus penalty minutes times the league PP/PIM constant (which is always negative). The constant is what is says on the tin: league PP goals divided by total league PIM. Put it all together, you have a player's point creation total.

As an example, there's HF's favorite son, Connor McDavid. He has 72 points, and a +20 rating with 22 PIM's (or at least he did as of Friday). The league constant is .064503*, so that translates into a PCR of 90.6.

Now, what I've been doing as of late, to put a better value on a player's performance (because a 90 PCR could be good in the modern NHL, but middle-of-the-pack in the NHL of the 1980's), is to convert that PCR total into a per-60-minutes total. This way, we can use that to come up with a hypothetical winning percentage using the old Pythagorean Theorem tossed about by Bill James (The idea that the square of goals scored is to the square of goals allowed as wins are to losses; in our case the league goals per game total is the goals allowed in the projected winning percentage).

For McDavid, his PCR is 4.009 (90.6 x 60/1355.73 TOI). Comparing that to the league average goals per game of 2.772105, we get an offensive winning percentage of .677.

NOW... you take that total, multiply back by total TOI, divide by 60, and you have 15.3 offensive wins. Subtract .677 from 1 and repeat, and we have a projected offensive won-lost total of 15.3-7.3 for McDavid.

To make that a single number, I use another Jamesian creation, Fibonacci Wins, that multiplies wins by winning percentage, then add wins and subtract losses. For our example, Connor has an OFIB of 18.32. Only one other player in the NHL (as of Friday) had an OFIB greater than that - Mikael Granlund of the Minnesota Wild, whose 14.2-5.5 offensive won-lost record turned into an 18.89 OFIB.

And that's where we come into our problem. We have exactly one, count 'em, ONE player for Nashville who is in the top 50 in OFIB (the cutoff for which, by the way, is 6.15). That is Viktor Arvidsson, with an 8.65 OFIB (56.8 PCR, 10.1-7.3).

Washington and Pittsburgh have 8 and 6 in the top 50, each. Four other teams have four in the top 50, and they're who you'd expect: Columbus, Chicago, Minnesota, and the NY Rangers.

Here's my point: we do not have the firepower to compete with teams who have four or more big stars in their lineups. All other things being equal, this team is toast as soon as we hit the playoffs, especially if we have to play either Chicago or Minnesota in the first round.

Obviously, top 50 players don't grow on trees. Columbus and Minnesota's appearance on the list suggests that it doesn't take much to get to that next level. But having only one player with that level of "potential wins" in them isn't going to help come playoff time.

---

* - The league constant has fluctuated since the Preds entered the league, varying from .0431 in 1999 to .0645 in 2006, and dropping down to .0511 in 2012. A good estimate is to divide PIM by 20, but doing it on a per-season basis normalizes the totals.

Thank you for this! I'm a math teacher, and I usually check the boards during my plan period (1st). All the math talk just helped get me going for the day.

As for our hopes in the playoffs, assuming we make it, I think we might have a decent shot against the Hawks. We held our own with them Saturday, and I could see us getting an extra boost from the idea of getting past them (kinda like the wings a few years ago). If Wilson can get hot again (big if, but maybe) and spread that to Neal and Smith, that will help our firepower issues and might lead to some guys being able to focus more on defensive responsibilities. It's been pointed out before that they are not the most physical of teams and that might be better for us if we were to advance. Having said all of that, I would probably still rather get the Wild in the 1st and hope a WC team knocks out the Hawks.

 

[David Singleton]

I suspect that we start the playoffs with Rinne, but if we get in trouble Saros will get a shot and then we will see what happens.

That is exactly my expectation.

 

[wadesworld]

If Ellis is out for an extended period of time, I predict we're going to limp our way into the playoffs, making it by the skin of our teeth.

With regard to the Chicago game, I certainly thought we played them even. Yes, it absolutely sucked to make a big mistake and pay for it at the end of the game, but I'll point out we are not alone in that misery. This has been Chicago's MO all year. They've made clutch plays to pull out games more times than I can count. Doesn't make it hurt any less, but some awfully good teams have suffered the same fate against them.

 

[Soundgarden]

Luckily, we've built up a decent cushion from St. Louis, I feel like Ellis will be back before any major harm is done.

 

[NSH615]

Re Ellis:



The fact that he is going on the trip means he's more day to day than week to week.




And on another note. This is kind of funny of Fisher.

 

[Paranoid Android]

Luckily, we've built up a decent cushion from St. Louis, I feel like Ellis will be back before any major harm is done.

I saw on NBCSN last night that St Louis has the easiest schedule remaining BY FAR. They are only 4 points back with a game in hand. Hopefully these points we've squandered away recently don't come back to bite us.

Luckily our schedule isn't that bad either. Just need to get through this Cali trip.

 

[MrJoshua]

I saw on NBCSN last night that St Louis has the easiest schedule remaining BY FAR. They are only 4 points back with a game in hand. Hopefully these points we've squandered away recently don't come back to bite us.

Luckily our schedule isn't that bad either. Just need to get through this Cali trip.

I think they have six or seven games remaining against the Avs and Coyotes, which is what makes their schedule so "easy". Comparatively, I believe the season series against the Avs is done for the Preds, with one game remaining against the Coyotes.

 

[token grinder]

I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it would take a collapse not to make the playoffs at this point. 17 games to go, 5 point lead on the Kings. We go 7-10, they need to go 10-7 to pass us. I think it is more likely we go 9-8 or 10-7 down the stretch. I don't know if the Kings have a 12-7 or 13-4 run in them down the stretch.

 

[Scoresberg]

I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it would take a collapse not to make the playoffs at this point. 17 games to go, 5 point lead on the Kings. We go 7-10, they need to go 10-7 to pass us. I think it is more likely we go 9-8 or 10-7 down the stretch. I don't know if the Kings have a 12-7 or 13-4 run in them down the stretch.

Well yeah we probably sneak to the playoffs from the backdoor but if it's Minny or San Jose in the 1st round, it's probably a sweep. I'd much rather take on the Hawks, we have played fairly well against them. We'd be the huge underdog, for sure, but it'd be an exciting rematch from 2 years ago.

I want that 3rd spot. With the WC spot we are going out in the 1st round that's likely.

 

[triggrman]

I saw on NBCSN last night that St Louis has the easiest schedule remaining BY FAR. They are only 4 points back with a game in hand. Hopefully these points we've squandered away recently don't come back to bite us.

Luckily our schedule isn't that bad either. Just need to get through this Cali trip.

We seem to play worse against the non playoff teams...

 

[nomorekids]

the one thing in our favor is that the Kings and Flames play head to head a few times, so assuming those are regulation games we should be okay.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Well yeah we probably sneak to the playoffs from the backdoor but if it's Minny or San Jose in the 1st round, it's probably a sweep.

What's up with this loser mentality? There have been 5 sweeps in the last 5 playoffs and 4 of those the lower seed has swept a higher seed.

8 Los Angeles beats 2 St. Louis in the 2nd round in 2012
6 San Jose beats 3 Vancouver in the 1st round in 2013
4 Boston beats 1 Pittsburgh in the Conference Finals in 2013
A3 Montreal beats A2 Tampa Bay in the 1st round in 2014
C3 Chicago beats WC Minnesota in the 2nd round in 2015

There were no sweeps last year.

Somehow, even though they are basically the same teams that went 7 games last year, San Jose is going to sweep us in oblivion?

Even Minnesota. Our first game was 3-2 in the last minute before we gave up two goals to make the game look lopsided.

The second game was an OT game and luckily there's no 3 on 3 in the playoffs.

The third game we won, granted they were playing Kuemper but we were without Josi at the end of a 5 game road trip and Subban had just come back as well.

The fourth game was probably our worst game against them just because of how horrible we were defensive but that was still a one goal game in the last few minutes.

It's just as likely that Rinne goes on one of his hot month stretches during the playoffs and we end up sweeping a team.

 

[hockey diva]

Here's a thought, what if we miss the playoffs? It can happen. Would it force the ownership to do something about the management and/or coaching staff?

 

[Armourboy]

Here's a thought, what if we miss the playoffs? It can happen. Would it force the ownership to do something about the management and/or coaching staff?

Doubtful, they will just use the injuries as reasoning in doing nothing. Assistant may go at most.

 

[NSH615]

Doubtful, they will just use the injuries as reasoning in doing nothing. Assistant may go at most.

They didn't the last time. They sent Trotz packing.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

They didn't the last time. They sent Trotz packing.

That was after two playoff misses in a row and Trotz's contract was up, he wasn't really "sent packing", just not re-signed. Lavy literally just got an extension. Whatever you think about him, he's not going anywhere, even if he misses the playoffs somehow.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

We aren't missing the playoffs. I really don't care what seed we get, we will only succeed if Rinne plays well. It isn't worth worrying about at this point, we will see what happens in the playoffs.

 

[NSH615]

That was after two playoff misses in a row and Trotz's contract was up, he wasn't really "sent packing", just not re-signed. Lavy literally just got an extension. Whatever you think about him, he's not going anywhere, even if he misses the playoffs somehow.

And that year they missed by 3 points after Rinne was out for 4 months of the season. To mean that is incredible. I would have expected to have missed by 10-20 points given our goalie situation. Trotz did an amazing job coming as close as he did.

Now to the point at hand, I don't think that Lavy would go, but I could see it as the writing on the wall for Poile. He has built a mediocre team again, a team that was expected to be a big contender. He has proven after 30+ years that he does not know how to truly build a contender.