Dreger: NYR actively talking to teams about becoming a 3rd party in a potential deal

[CraigBillington]

I have to think teams are gonna look for this loophole to be closed on the next CBA. You should not be able to cheat the cap system

Whereas, I think the CBA allowed for this to happen years ago when they allowed for salary retention and put in that a contract could only be retained twice and no team can have more than three retention spots used at a time

 

[Space umpire]

Ahh it was so different around here a while back, Rangers would HAVE to give up 2 of Lafreniere,Kakko, Miller or Chytil and a first for the great Patty Kane. Now people are just hoping there is a 2023 1st pick involved.....there won't, those were good times.

Show me the post where I wrote that? You do realize not all fans of a team will have identical opinions.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Ahh it was so different around here a while back, Rangers would HAVE to give up 2 of Lafreniere,Kakko, Miller or Chytil and a first for the great Patty Kane. Now people are just hoping there is a 2023 1st pick involved.....there won't, those were good times.

Who the f*** said TWO of them and a 1st. Most Hawks fans have been arguing for months on our board about getting just ONE of those guys and MAYBE a 1st.

What insanely optimistic Hawks fan are you posting about?!?

 

[mouser]

Your facts are never in question. I do think the stagnant cap will create short term inflation. Teams were expecting a good bump this year. It not happening creates issues.

Any third party 25% retention on a expiring contract should actually create short term deflation returns for the retention rather than inflation.

The cap space doesn't matter to the retaining team--the teams looking to retain have more than enough available cap space. With the players still paying back the Escrow Balance from the covid years, many teams are currently receiving a larger than normal % of the 50/50 HRR split. So they have on average more cash to splurge on buying draft picks with retention vs previous seasons.

 

[Space umpire]

Any third party 25% retention on a expiring contract should actually create short term deflation returns for the retention rather than inflation.

The cap space doesn't matter to the retaining team--the teams looking to retain have more than enough available cap space. With the players still paying back the Escrow Balance from the covid years, many teams are currently receiving a larger than normal % of the 50/50 HRR split. So they have on average more cash to splurge on buying draft picks with retention vs previous seasons.

I disagree the 50/50 split part is irrelevant. Teams can’t spend beyond the cap.

I believe the number of teams capable of being used for 3rd party retaining shrinks every year.
Plus you have division/conference rivalries.
I can’t see The Habs retaining to help the Canes.
Lower supply of available teams
Same/similar number of cup contenders.
Creates inflation, Supply and demand.

 

[mouser]

I disagree the 50/50 split part is irrelevant. Teams can’t spend beyond the cap.

I believe the number of teams capable of being used for 3rd party retaining shrinks every year.
Plus you have division/conference rivalries.
I can’t see The Habs retaining to help the Canes.
Lower supply of available teams
Same/similar number of cup contenders.
Creates inflation, Supply and demand.

You're overestimating the Demand for retention and underestimating the Supply for retention.

In the past half dozen years there have been seven trade deadline 25% retentions. The cumulative AAV retention in those seven trades is $8.6M. There are currently six teams this season with $10m+ in free cap space--more cap space than all of those previous retention deals combined. At this season's trade deadline there should be somewhere around $300m in unused cap space that will expire at the end of the season.

Last year we even saw the playoff bound Florida Panthers retain 25% on Max Domi so he could join Carolina.

 

[Space umpire]

You're overestimating the Demand for retention and underestimating the Supply for retention.

In the past half dozen years there have been seven trade deadline 25% retentions. The cumulative AAV retention in those seven trades is $8.6M. There are currently six teams this season with $10m+ in free cap space--more cap space than all of those previous retention deals combined. At this season's trade deadline there should be somewhere around $300m in unused cap space that will expire at the end of the season.

Last year we even saw the playoff bound Florida Panthers retain 25% on Max Domi so he could join Carolina.

Of that 300 million I would bet 80/90 percent of it belongs to 5 or 6 teams.
Also seeing many teams (more than previous years) are kind of tighter against the cap. (Which is where your point about the owners getting more than the 50/50 split having extra money comes in)

My point was less teams available to do so and more teams may seek a retention partner to complete a trade.
If many of the “proposed” deals go through there should be more retention than usual but it may come at a higher price. … or teams may refuse to make deals.
If Chicago had proceeded with rumored early season plans to deal Toews, Kane and Domi retaining the rumored 50% on each. With a partner retaining 25% those partners would = 1.25 mill of retention. Roughly 1/6 of your 6 year total. but more deals have already been done and are proposed that have or need double retention.
It is my opinion that some teams will pay more and it’s possible a deal or two doesn’t get made because a team won’t pay it.

 

[Maitz]

Apparently MTL could use their cap space for picks to make trade happens for other teams

 

[CDN24]

Cap space doesn‘t matter because the teams willing to do third party 25% retention on expiring contracts have effectively infinite cap space. It’s all about the real $dollars.

Current cap space:
Arizona: $61m
Anaheim: $53m
Detroit: $53m

Kane retention is worth a 5th with only $156k in actual cash paid out by the third team on 25% retention.

And yet it cost the rangers a 3rd. Teams selling may have infinite space to sell but the team buying needs that space and price is a function of how bad someone wants it.

 

[CDN24]

Real dollars owed is just about everything to a pass thru 3rd party.

sure prior favors and a playoff contender like buffalo or Detroit isn’t helping pittsburgh get better by doing a pass thru.
what is the real dollars this year. Meier is $10M while Kane is 2.9M thsts more than 3x the real salary so a 3rd party likely asks for 3 times as much compensation.

the teams brokering have the cap space to broker a pass thru.

But the team buying the space needs it and the team selling knows that and hence the price goes up. Value is a function of the asset sold and thats cap space. Kane cost a 3rd despite being owed little real money

 

[Voight]

X Team needs another team to either take on a bad contract or retain on a current contract as a third team.

Arizona -

 

[mouser]

And yet it cost the rangers a 3rd. Teams selling may have infinite space to sell but the team buying needs that space and price is a function of how bad someone wants it.

Definitely higher than usual. Waiting to see the full trade details if Arizona is throwing in another piece to the trade to boost the value of the returned pick.

We saw Minnesota do that with O'Reilly and Orlov.

Also a 2025 3rd is usually similar in value to a 2023 4th.


EDIT: And yes, Arizona is including a asset going to Chicago. RFA rights to Vili Saarijarvi. I don’t have a valuation on what his rights might be worth, but obviously Chicago wanted him. It’s not a case of Arizona moving him to free up one of the 50 contract slots—he’s not signed to a contract.