Proposal: Noah Hanifin to New Jersey at the draft

[goonybird]

'edmonton was STUPID to trade Hall for Larsson'

'Hanifin is worth more than Hischier because of the Larsson trade'

pick one

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As for Aho being better than Hischier, what a joke. He's 2 years older, a winger, and can barely outproduce Nico. No rational person would ever think Aho is even worth remotely similar value to Nico. Nico projects to be in a completely different league from Aho.

He's only 17 months older than Nico, and how is 29G/65P on a team that scored only 225 goals "Barely outproducing" a guy with 20G,52P on a team scoring 243 goals. If you want to say Nico projects higher or has more potential for various reasons, that's fine, but you lose a lot of credibility when you make silly and factually incorrect statements like you have for multiple posts. 9 more goals and 13 more points on a worse team isn't "barely outproducing".

Particularly when Aho doesn't get to play with Taylor Hall.

 

[135ace]

While I agree with the first 4 words of your post above, the rest of it pretty far off base. Aho is only 17 months older than Nico and put up 24G, 49 points as a rookie (on a low scoring team) and this year put up 29G, 65P (again on a low scoring team). In which Universe is Nico/Slavin >>> over Aho. Heck, as a Canes fan, I'd probably put Aho on par, if not ahead of Slavin. I get that NJ wouldn't trade Nico and I don't blame you. I wouldn't argue if you say his value is more, but there isn't the "big value drop" you say. Your valuations are almost as bad as BD58 and he's doing it on purpose.

Also, what has Severson done to be >>> (huge drop) over Pesce? Severson is more known for offense and his defense is very "meh". Let's look at some numbers.

Points: Severson 20 ES, 4PP; Pesce: 19ES, 0PP
CF%: Severson 49.45; Pesce 54.37
GA/60: Severson: 3.07, Pesce: 2.75
SA/60: Severson: 33.19; Pesce: 28.39
+/-: Severson: -8 on a team that is a combined -42; Pesce: -6 on a team that is a combined -143

Severson is very sheltered with the 5th easiest competition (-.074 QoC) and 5th most Ozone starts (55%) on the Devils.
Pesce is not sheltered at all with the toughest competition (+.407) and 2nd least Ozone starts (49%) on the Canes.
Severson doesn't kill penalties 22s ToI/G) and Pesce does (2:21 TOI/G)
Severson gets 1:38 min/G on the PP and Pesce gets only mop up duty when the PP expires with 17s TOI/G)

I see nothing that says Severson is >>> better than. Heck, I see nothing that says Severson is better than Pesce at all.

I've said that in a vacuum Nico and Slavin are pretty close in value. That being said Nico is worth more to NJ than Slavin is to Carolina. Not only would we not have a 1C, but our current 2/3C options aren't that great anyway. D is a strength for Carolina. Furthermore, I think Nico likely has higher upside than Slavin and he was our franchise's first 1OA pick, meaning it's very unlikely we trade him (we rolled the red carpet out for him and fans already love him).

As for Nico/Aho, it's not just about points. This has been debated to death on other threads, but if Nico were on PP1 he'd probably have an extra 15-20 points on the season. His even strength production is absolutely elite for a rookie in his D+1 season. Aho is in his D+3 season and basically has almost identical ES numbers as Nico. I'm not saying Aho won't continue to develop, but right now I think Nico is worth significantly more than Aho.

As for Pesce, he and Severson are probably pretty close. Pesce is definitely better defensively, but Severson is better offensively and has more upside. He can be downright dominant when he's on his game. The big problem with Severson is that he plays like a complete idiot quite often. And putting Pesce, or even Hanifin above Nico in terms of value is just disgraceful. Otherwise I wouldn't even mention Severson.

He's only 17 months older than Nico, and how is 29G/65P on a team that scored only 225 goals "Barely outproducing" a guy with 20G,52P on a team scoring 243 goals. If you want to say Nico projects higher or has more potential for various reasons, that's fine, but you lose a lot of credibility when you make silly and factually incorrect statements like you have for multiple posts. 9 more goals and 13 more points on a worse team isn't "barely outproducing".

Their ES production is almost identical. 49 ES points vs 46 and 2.479/60 vs 2.452/60.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Real question for Canes fans. Would you do W. Nylander for Hanifin or not? I think both players have the potential to show they're elite. Nylander could very well rek us hard after we trade him, but after these playoffs its evident our current D isn't going to win us the cup.

Depending on what other moves the Canes may have planned, I'd probably we willing to. I think that's a move that hurts for both teams but might be for the best. The fact Hanifin is left handed makes me think the Leafs might balk at it though.

 

[goonybird]

Slavin's value is comparable to Hischier's? what?

this thread is bonkers

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I've said that in a vacuum Nico and Slavin are pretty close in value. That being said Nico is worth more to NJ than Slavin is to Carolina. Not only would we not have a 1C, but our current 2/3C options aren't that great anyway. D is a strength for Carolina. Furthermore, I think Nico likely has higher upside than Slavin and he was our franchise's first 1OA pick, meaning it's very unlikely we trade him (we rolled the red carpet out for him and fans already love him).

As for Nico/Aho, it's not just about points. This has been debated to death on other threads, but if Nico were on PP1 he'd probably have an extra 15-20 points on the season. His even strength production is absolutely elite for a rookie in his D+1 season. Aho is in his D+3 season and basically has almost identical ES numbers as Nico. I'm not saying Aho won't continue to develop, but right now I think Nico is worth significantly more than Aho.

As for Pesce, he and Severson are probably pretty close. Pesce is definitely better defensively, but Severson is better offensively and has more upside. He can be downright dominant when he's on his game. The big problem with Severson is that he plays like a complete idiot quite often. And putting Pesce, or even Hanifin above Nico in terms of value is just disgraceful. Otherwise I wouldn't even mention Severson.



Their ES production is almost identical. 49 ES points vs 46 and 2.479/60 vs 2.452/60.

Would Hischer's EV production been what it was with Teravainen as primary linemate as opposed to the likely Hart Trophy winner in Hall?

It seems like you're picking and choosing context here.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As for Nico/Aho, it's not just about points. This has been debated to death on other threads, but if Nico were on PP1 he'd probably have an extra 15-20 points on the season. His even strength production is absolutely elite for a rookie in his D+1 season. Aho is in his D+3 season and basically has almost identical ES numbers as Nico. I'm not saying Aho won't continue to develop, but right now I think Nico is worth significantly more than Aho.

1) Aho is 17 months older. Whether it's D+1 or D+3 isn't relevant, there are 17 months separating them in age.
2) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico plays with Taylor Hall. Put Aho on Hall's line and I guarantee that his ES numbers would be much better than they are today.
3) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico got more Ozone starts and faced weaker competition than Aho.
4) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ is the 15th best goal scoring team in the league and Carolina is the 23rd.
5) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ has the 10th ranked PP in the league and Carolina has the 22nd.
Also, this is only Aho's 2nd season on NA ice as well.

So you are right, it's not just about points.

I won't disagree that Nico has more value than Aho or Slavin right now. That was never my argument. It's your statement that Nico (and Slavin) have significantly more value than Aho. In fact, I'm fairly certain the Canes brass think Aho > Slavin right now (based on Dundon's end of season press conference statements). So you are off base.

As for Pesce, he and Severson are probably pretty close. Pesce is definitely better defensively, but Severson is better offensively and has more upside. He can be downright dominant when he's on his game. The big problem with Severson is that he plays like a complete idiot quite often.

Right now, Pesce is SIGNIFICANTLY better defensively and Severson is BARELY better offensively, even with much more sheltered minutes. (0.96 P/60 ES vs. 0.86 P/60). Severson is also a draft year ahead of Pesce and is in his 4th NHL season vs. Pesce's 3rd. Maybe Severson does have more "upside", but as of right now, he's certainly not showing it, even with significantly more PP time and his most common ES forwards are Hall, Hischier and Bratt. If the Devil's offered Severson for Pesce, straight up, I'm fairly certain the Canes would hang up.

And putting Pesce, or even Hanifin above Nico in terms of value is just disgraceful. Otherwise I wouldn't even mention Severson.

Ignore that poster, he's doing it on purpose. Still doesn't excuse your poor valuations in response.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

i actually wouldn't trade hanifin for hischier straight up tbh. hisch comes from a non traditional country, unlike hanifin, and hisch reminds me too much if rnh.

 

[Drew311]

Hanifin and Rask for O'Reilly.

 

[tmg]

i actually wouldn't trade hanifin for hischier straight up tbh. hisch comes from a non traditional country, unlike hanifin, and hisch reminds me too much if rnh.

What does this ‘non traditional country’ argument even mean? Is Kopitar innately less valuable than he otherwise should be because he’s from Slovenia?

 

[Bobby Orr's Knees]

i actually wouldn't trade hanifin for hischier straight up tbh. hisch comes from a non traditional country, unlike hanifin, and hisch reminds me too much if rnh.

Ummmm, WHAT?

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

What does this ‘non traditional country’ argument even mean? Is Kopitar innately less valuable than he otherwise should be because he’s from Slovenia?

Hisch would be Switzerland's best forward in the olympics. He has no incentive to improve his game. None. Unlike Hanifin or Slavin or Aho, who must work hard just to even get their names in the running. This is why the smart devils fans i know have all told me they're very concerned for hisch's debelopment.

this is precisely why pavel brendl failed in the nhl.

 

[Shwabeal]

Hisch would be Switzerland's best forward in the olympics. He has no incentive to improve his game. None. Unlike Hanifin or Slavin or Aho, who must work hard just to even get their names in the running. This is why the smart devils fans i know have all told me they're very concerned for hisch's debelopment.

this is precisely why pavel brendl failed in the nhl.

So players only try to improve their game so that they can make their national team? Interesting....

 

[135ace]

1) Aho is 17 months older. Whether it's D+1 or D+3 isn't relevant, there are 17 months separating them in age.
2) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico plays with Taylor Hall. Put Aho on Hall's line and I guarantee that his ES numbers would be much better than they are today.
3) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico got more Ozone starts and faced weaker competition than Aho.
4) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ is the 15th best goal scoring team in the league and Carolina is the 23rd.
5) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ has the 10th ranked PP in the league and Carolina has the 22nd.
Also, this is only Aho's 2nd season on NA ice as well.

So you are right, it's not just about points.

I won't disagree that Nico has more value than Aho or Slavin right now. That was never my argument. It's your statement that Nico (and Slavin) have significantly more value than Aho. In fact, I'm fairly certain the Canes brass think Aho > Slavin right now (based on Dundon's end of season press conference statements). So you are off base.

I think we can go back and forth all day on Nico and Aho. Marner is another guy who has been compared to both and led to lots of discussions, etc (for the record Nico just trounced Marner in a "who will be better poll" and I believe Marner and Aho were very close in one earlier this season). If I had to rank them on value I'd go Nico, Aho, Marner. If we're talking about how good they are today I can give Aho a slight edge over Nico, but I am also very confident that Nico will be better than Aho as he continues to develop. I also think that Nico's value to NJ is absolutely massive.

 

[Zippy316]

1) Aho is 17 months older. Whether it's D+1 or D+3 isn't relevant, there are 17 months separating them in age.
2) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico plays with Taylor Hall. Put Aho on Hall's line and I guarantee that his ES numbers would be much better than they are today.
3) You are conveniently ignoring that Nico got more Ozone starts and faced weaker competition than Aho.
4) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ is the 15th best goal scoring team in the league and Carolina is the 23rd.
5) You are conveniently ignoring that NJ has the 10th ranked PP in the league and Carolina has the 22nd.
Also, this is only Aho's 2nd season on NA ice as well.

So you are right, it's not just about points.

I won't disagree that Nico has more value than Aho or Slavin right now. That was never my argument. It's your statement that Nico (and Slavin) have significantly more value than Aho. In fact, I'm fairly certain the Canes brass think Aho > Slavin right now (based on Dundon's end of season press conference statements). So you are off base.



Right now, Pesce is SIGNIFICANTLY better defensively and Severson is BARELY better offensively, even with much more sheltered minutes. (0.96 P/60 ES vs. 0.86 P/60). Severson is also a draft year ahead of Pesce and is in his 4th NHL season vs. Pesce's 3rd. Maybe Severson does have more "upside", but as of right now, he's certainly not showing it, even with significantly more PP time and his most common ES forwards are Hall, Hischier and Bratt. If the Devil's offered Severson for Pesce, straight up, I'm fairly certain the Canes would hang up.




Ignore that poster, he's doing it on purpose. Still doesn't excuse your poor valuations in response.

I don't know what he's arguing about, but on your five points:

1. 17 months from 18-21 is a huge difference. I think you're making it out to be less than it is. Hischier still looks like a 14 year old.
2. Nico has picked up an absurd amount of primary points this year and at 5v5. Hall definitely helps, but he absolutely earned that #1 job and thrived in it.
3. Sure, but I would say PP time/production offsets that. Aho played a lot of minutes with Staal who is a terrific two-way player hence the minutes. Devils usage was different because they had a shutdown guy in Zajac on another line.
4. How much of a difference is those goal totals? Probably not much especially if you look a 5v5 ice time.
5. Hischier played with a revolving door of players on a garbage second unit. Devils PP was primarily driven by the top unit of Hall - Palmieri - Butcher. Look at the huge discrepancy of PP points on the Devils.
This was also Hischier's second season on NA ice.

I think they're all very close in value, but just wanted to point out that your points lack a ton of context and are off-base. I'd rank Hischier higher than Aho solely because I favor 200 foot centers over everything else. Aho is a terrific 200 foot player, but until he does it at the center position. I'd give the very slight edge to Nico.

Also, Severson is not remotely close to Pesce. Severson is heavily overrated because he looks good on a spreadsheet but if you actually watch the game, Severson makes a ton of boneheaded plays and doesn't produce enough to offset that.

 

[go comets]

No way Carolina trades one of it's young D for quantity, but for quality as in a starting goalie or a center......

 

[bluedevil58]

I don't know what he's arguing about, but on your five points:

1. 17 months from 18-21 is a huge difference. I think you're making it out to be less than it is. Hischier still looks like a 14 year old.
2. Nico has picked up an absurd amount of primary points this year and at 5v5. Hall definitely helps, but he absolutely earned that #1 job and thrived in it.
3. Sure, but I would say PP time/production offsets that. Aho played a lot of minutes with Staal who is a terrific two-way player hence the minutes. Devils usage was different because they had a shutdown guy in Zajac on another line.
4. How much of a difference is those goal totals? Probably not much especially if you look a 5v5 ice time.
5. Hischier played with a revolving door of players on a garbage second unit. Devils PP was primarily driven by the top unit of Hall - Palmieri - Butcher. Look at the huge discrepancy of PP points on the Devils.
This was also Hischier's second season on NA ice.

I think they're all very close in value, but just wanted to point out that your points lack a ton of context and are off-base. I'd rank Hischier higher than Aho solely because I favor 200 foot centers over everything else. Aho is a terrific 200 foot player, but until he does it at the center position. I'd give the very slight edge to Nico.

Also, Severson is not remotely close to Pesce. Severson is heavily overrated because he looks good on a spreadsheet but if you actually watch the game, Severson makes a ton of boneheaded plays and doesn't produce enough to offset that.

Aho has played the center position this season along with being a winger. I think it will be interesting to see what Nico does next season. Will he hit a sophmore slump or will he progress like Aho did? That is why I give the slight edge to Aho. Aho did not have the luxury of playing with a 94 point winger meanwhile Nico did. No discredit to him but part of me feels his production wouldn't be the same without Hall on his line. Unless you can throw stats at me that clearly state the majority of Nico's points were not associated with Hall?

 

[Billdo]

for Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson, John Quenneville, Blake Speers

Please for the sake of all Devils fans stop posting

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think they're all very close in value, but just wanted to point out that your points lack a ton of context and are off-base. I'd rank Hischier higher than Aho solely because I favor 200 foot centers over everything else. Aho is a terrific 200 foot player, but until he does it at the center position. I'd give the very slight edge to Nico.

Great, that was my point to begin with so we agree. And I disagree with my point being "off base". My points have way more context than the poster I was responding to who said Nico/Slavin >>> Aho (a big drop) .

Also, Severson is not remotely close to Pesce. Severson is heavily overrated because he looks good on a spreadsheet but if you actually watch the game, Severson makes a ton of boneheaded plays and doesn't produce enough to offset that.

I won't claim to say one player is better than the other, just that there is nothing that supports Severson >>> (a big drop) over Pesce.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Here’s a helpful hint:

If you have to keep adding multiple pieces in a trade for a highly touted young player to try and make the value even then your proposal probably isn’t going to work.

Quality, not quantity.

Players like that don’t get traded for four pieces. They get swapped for one good piece whichfor is would have to be a good centre of comparable age otherwise we don’t entertain the idea of moving him.

You mean this ain’t like NHL 18 where you load up the value bar and call it a day ?

 

[Zippy316]

Aho has played the center position this season along with being a winger. I think it will be interesting to see what Nico does next season. Will he hit a sophmore slump or will he progress like Aho did? That is why I give the slight edge to Aho. Aho did not have the luxury of playing with a 94 point winger meanwhile Nico did. No discredit to him but part of me feels his production wouldn't be the same without Hall on his line. Unless you can throw stats at me that clearly state the majority of Nico's points were not associated with Hall?

They played together a majority of the year so of course a majority of his points were with Hall.

I know sometime around February/March someone on the Devils board had WOWYs where Hischier was slightly more productive away from Hall as he was with Hall, although the sample size away from Hall was a lot smaller. I can't seem to find WOWY anymore since the site I used shut down, but everything I've seen is that Hischier was equally productive away from Hall.

In all honesty, I feel like most of the times Hischier scored it wasn't Hall setting him up. There's videos of all of Hischier's goals in 2017-18 and same for Hall. If you really want to look into it, you can get a decent grip on how one impacted the other there, there was a lot more cases of Hischier setting up Hall than vice versa.

To get back to the topic....

I'd love to see Hanifin on the Devils, but I just don't see how it happens. Only way it makes sense for the Devils (aside from low ball offers centered around Zacha, Bratt, or McLeod) is if Severson or Schneider were going the other way. A base of Schneider + Severson for Hanifin + Darling might be workable value wise, but Carolina doesn't need Severson and I doubt the package entices them enough.

If any deal sends Hanifin to the Devils, there's a good chance Hurricanes fans are going to hate the return. It's the same argument Devils fans had over and over with Edmonton fans. One team would have to budge and one fan base wouldn't like the deal.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

*sigh* Closed because this is going nowhere good.